Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 031155
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
555 AM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 316 AM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

Today-Sunday:
Ceilings continue to decrease early this as lower levels slowly
saturate. Anticipate persistent increase in precipitation as lift
increases, especially in Central KS this morning and Southeast KS
this afternoon/evening. Still will be some potential for a
rain/snow mix, most likely in Central KS. No significant
accumulations of snow are expected. With passage of shortwave
late tonight/early Sunday, should see an uptick in precipitation
in the precipitation, especially over eastern half and then
clearing late tonight in the west late. Clouds/precipitation will
likely keep minimums up a bit in the far southeast sections, but
late radiational cooling should allow minimums to drop in Central
KS, only slightly offset by downslope flow. There is a small
chance that precipitation could linger in extreme Southeast KS
Sunday morning. Otherwise return flow develops during the day.

Monday:
Above normal temperatures will linger one more day with some
sunshine and south winds.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 316 AM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

Appears that surge of cold air will traverse the area during the
early morning hours on Tuesday. Medium range models are in
surprisingly good Agreement this morning, but until this persists
for a couple of runs, confidence is still not that high that these
runs are any better than previous ones. That said, trend that
precipitation could break out in the predawn hours Wednesday
morning as shallow cold airmass is overrun by warmer air aloft is
still on track. This could persist throughout the day as wave
traverses the area Wednesday night. Wide gamut of possibilities
with snow accumulations. -Howerton

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 538 AM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

Virga will drive the ceilings lower as we move through the morning
hours across south central KS while a mix of light rain and snow
impact KGBD-KRSL. Light rain showers will eventually saturate the
column with ceilings expected to lower through the day across much
of the area. IFR is expected to become widespread by late this
afternoon and continue into the evening and overnight hours. Light
easterly winds today will become light and variable tonight with
light precipitation ending from west to east late tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    44  34  51  31 /  50  60   0   0
Hutchinson      41  30  50  29 /  50  60   0   0
Newton          43  34  49  30 /  50  60   0   0
ElDorado        46  35  51  31 /  50  60   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   46  35  52  32 /  60  60   0  10
Russell         35  25  49  27 /  50  30   0   0
Great Bend      37  26  49  27 /  50  50   0   0
Salina          41  30  50  28 /  50  60   0   0
McPherson       41  30  49  28 /  50  60   0   0
Coffeyville     49  37  52  32 /  50  60  10  10
Chanute         49  36  51  31 /  50  70  10  10
Iola            48  36  51  31 /  50  70  10   0
Parsons-KPPF    49  36  52  32 /  50  60  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PJH
LONG TERM...PJH
AVIATION...MWM



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