Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 280451

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1151 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Lots of remnant low cloudiness across most of ern KS this afternoon,
as low level moisture has been stubborn to scour out, given the
limited drying/cold advection. Could see some breaks in the low
level cloud cover for the early evening hours, but highly
pessimistic that all the low level cloudiness will scour out
completely as the surface flow shifts back to the E-SE.

A series of slow moving storm systems will be the story, as the
progressive zonal flow and wide open gulf moisture return will lead
to a very showery week.

The first in the series of storms will make its way across the srn
Rockies on Tue with warm advection/low level moisture transport
increasing by Tue morning and especially by Tue afternoon. This
upper low will make very slow progress across the srn plains, with
the upper low becoming vertically stacked tue night across OK. This
will lead to off and on showers and embedded thunderstorms for most
of the forecast area through Thu morning. Models are fairly similar
in the track of the main surface low with this system, with both the
GFS and ECMWF keeping the surface low south of the forecast area
across srn OK. This will keep most of the forecast area on the north
side of the low, with abundant moisture wrapping northeast into most
of the area, with the heaviest showers expected to be across most of
southern Kansas.  Expect to see some healthy rainfall totals with
this system, given the precipitable water values of 150-200 percent
of normal, by Thu morning, with the periodic showers and storms.
With the abundant moisture in place, would not be surprised to see 2
to 4 inch rainfall totals by Thu morning, with the heaviest along
Highway 400 for areas east of the KS turnpike.

Given overall marginal instability and vertically stacked mid-upper
flow, widespread severe weather appears unlikely across the forecast
area throughout this rainfall event. Could still see a few strong to
low-end severe storms, especially over southern/southeast Kansas
Tuesday evening-night, and again on Wednesday.  MLCAPE values
approach 500-750 J/Kg along the KS/OK border with bulk shear of 70-
80 kts on Wed, which may lead to a sneaky marginal severe weather
chance on Wed morning.


.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

The "highlight day" of the week looks to be on Fri, with this day,
expected to be between systems with light winds and seasonal temps.

Medium range models suggest that the next system will be quick on
the heels of the Thu system, arriving into the plains by early Sat.
Models suggest that system will make slow progress across the plains
as well, leading to a soggy weekend for most locations.  Some
uncertainty on the track of this system, but the latest GFS suggests
a similar path to the mid week system, which would again lead to off
and on showers and embedded thunder chance for Sat-Sun with
widespread cloud cover and east-southeast flow leading to max temps
a little below normal.



.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1141 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Aviation concerns remain low clouds and fog tonight into Tue

MVFR ceilings remain at all sites with the exception of KGBD-KRSL
with these sites eventually coming down in the next couple of
hours. Moist easterly flow should continue to lower ceilings
overnight with IFR a good bet by sunrise for sites along and
especially west of I-135. Should also see some fog after 09z due
to mainly upslope processes and/or stratus build down. Also feel
the best chances will be along our western flank, affecting mainly
KHUT-KRSL-KGBD. Fairly confident we are not looking at dense fog
but may see some vsbys lower than 3sm. At least some MVFR ceilings
should maintain through the early afternoon hours Tue, with
showers approaching our western flank by 00z.


Issued at 330 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Breezy east winds may support low-end very high grassland fire
danger across the region Tuesday morning. However, a limiting factor
will be increasing cloud cover and marginal afternoon humidity
values in the 40s-60s percent range. Otherwise, periodic showers and
embedded thunderstorms along with cooler temperatures should support
low fire danger levels the next several days.



Wichita-KICT    44  64  53  64 /   0  50  80  80
Hutchinson      43  62  50  59 /   0  60  90  90
Newton          43  61  50  60 /   0  40  90  80
ElDorado        43  63  52  64 /   0  30  80  80
Winfield-KWLD   44  66  55  69 /   0  40  90  80
Russell         43  59  46  51 /   0  80  90  90
Great Bend      43  59  47  53 /   0  80  90  90
Salina          42  62  49  56 /   0  40  90  90
McPherson       43  61  50  57 /   0  50  90  90
Coffeyville     45  69  57  70 /   0   0  90  90
Chanute         44  67  54  67 /   0   0  90  90
Iola            44  65  53  66 /   0   0  90  80
Parsons-KPPF    45  69  56  69 /   0   0  90  90




SHORT TERM...Ketcham
LONG TERM...Ketcham
FIRE WEATHER...Ketcham is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.