Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 251724
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1224 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 327 AM CDT Mon Jul 25 2016

Today:
Based on current and yesterday trends, and decent MUCAPES, suspect
storms/precipitation just west of forecast area continue will
track east across area this morning, with precipitation on the
wane by mid-late morning. Given weak forcing, not anticipating
much if any coverage this afternoon and early eve. Could see an
uptick after 0000 UTC, but more likely will be later tonight per
recent trends/climatology.

Tuesday-Wednesday:
Given little change in overall pattern, will be stuck with low
pops and roughly persistence temperatures on Tuesday. Models do
have fairly good agreement with 500MB trough passage during the
day on Wednesday, which should support a better chance of storms
during the day, with chances waning Wednesday night. -Howerton

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 327 AM CDT Mon Jul 25 2016

Thursday-Sunday:
Little change in overall pattern with area in persistent WNW.
Given pattern, will likely see periodic rounds of storms coming
off the high plains, with higher chances for storms in the early
morning hours...and rogue afternoon storms. Will have chances of
rain all periods, but anticipate best chances in the 08-15z time
frame, with secondary peak in the late afternoon/early evening
hours. Most areas will be dry for most of the time. Temperatures
should be seasonal, but will be highly and locally dependent on
precipitation/clouds. -Howerton

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Mon Jul 25 2016

A weak convectively-enhanced vort max over south-central Kansas at
midday, is expected to drift very slowly east-southeastward
through this evening. Pockets of diurnal heating/instability under
and just east/southeast of this feature may allow widely separated
storms during mid-late afternoon in south-central/southeast KS
before diminishing early this evening. Will include a brief period
of VCTS at the HUT, ICT, and CNU terminals and VCSH at SLN early
this afternoon. A surface high will continue to build over Iowa
through tonight, with light east-northeasterly winds tonight.
Patchy IFR ceilings/visibilities may develop early Tuesday morning
due to recent rainfall, light winds, and mostly clear skies.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    89  72  93  73 /  60  20  20  20
Hutchinson      88  71  92  72 /  60  20  20  20
Newton          87  71  91  72 /  70  20  20  20
ElDorado        88  72  91  73 /  80  20  20  20
Winfield-KWLD   90  73  92  73 /  70  20  20  20
Russell         88  70  93  71 /  60  10  20  20
Great Bend      88  70  93  71 /  50  20  20  20
Salina          88  72  95  74 /  80  20  20  20
McPherson       88  70  91  71 /  60  20  20  20
Coffeyville     89  73  92  73 / 100  30  20  10
Chanute         87  72  91  73 / 100  20  20  10
Iola            87  72  91  73 / 100  20  20  10
Parsons-KPPF    88  73  91  73 / 100  30  20  10

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PJH
LONG TERM...PJH
AVIATION...JMC


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