000
FXUS63 KICT 031750
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1150 AM CST TUE DEC 3 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 949 AM CST TUE DEC 3 2013

DENSE FOG STILL CONTINUES TO BE A CONCERN ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. CONDITIONS ARE BEGINNING TO
IMPROVE...BUT WIDESPREAD 1/4 MILE IS STILL OCCURRING. HAVE EXTENDED
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11AM.

BILLINGS

UPDATE ISSUED AT 637 AM CST TUE DEC 3 2013

THIS MORNING:
DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXPANDED WEST ACROSS SEDGWICK & SUMNER
COUNTIES WHERE 1/4 MILE VISIBILITIES ARE PREVALENT. THE ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT TIL 10 AM. TEMPS & DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN FINE-TUNED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CST TUE DEC 3 2013

WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS LED TO ANOTHER ROUND OF DENSE FOG ACROSS
MOST OF THE SRN KS...WITH THE LOWEST VSBYS OVER THE FLINT HILLS/SE
KS. CURRENT LOCATION OF DENSE FOG ADVISORY LOOKS ON TRACK.

DENSE FOG ISNT AS DENSE AS THE LAST FEW NIGHTS...SO EXPECT THE FOG
TO BURN OFF RATHER QUICKLY THIS MORNING. ENJOY TODAY...AS MILD TEMPS
STICK AROUND FOR ONE MORE DAY...AS ALL THE MODELS SUGGEST A SLOWER
COLD FRONTAL ARRIVAL THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...UNTIL THE EVENING
HOURS.  LEE TROF AND COMPRESSIONAL HEATING JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TODAY TO ONCE AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE LOW 60S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

THE BOTTOM LOOKS TO FALL OUT OF THE TEMPS STARTING THIS EVENING INTO
WED...AS A SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES PUSHES THE STRONG
ARCTIC COLD FRONT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA DURING THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. THIS WILL LEAD TO GUSTY N-NW WINDS AND SHARPLY COLDER TEMPS
TNGT INTO WED.

NO MOISTURE TO SPEAK OF ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...WITH A RAW DAY
EXPECTED ON WED...WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION FROM THE NORTH OVER
THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPS STRUGGLING TO CLIMB INTO THE 30S
FOR WED AFTN. DUE TO THE SHALLOW NATURE TO THIS COLD
AIRMASS...WENT WITH THE COLDEST MODEL SOLUTION FOR MAX TEMPS...AS
MODELS NEVER HANDLE COLD OUTBREAKS VERY WELL.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CST TUE DEC 3 2013

WED NIGHT-FRI: MID LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE OVER THE TOP
OF THIS SHALLOW COLD AIR LATE WED NIGHT ACROSS CEN KS AND THE REST
OF THE AREA FOR THU. AS THIS MOISTURE INCREASES ON THU...THE VERY
COLD NATURE OF THIS AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO A LIGHT SNOW CHANCE FOR
MOST LOCATIONS...AS MOISTURE INCREASES IN THE MID LEVEL/MAIN
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. LATEST GFS/ECMWF MODELS ARE KEEPING THE
BETTER MOISTURE RETURN/SATURATION FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS RUNS
SUGGESTED...WHICH WILL LIMIT DURATION OF THE LIGHT SNOW...THUS
REDUCING SNOW TOTALS TO AROUND AN INCH OR TWO FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST KS...WHERE A
COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF LIGHT SNOW MAY PUSH SNOW TOTALS A LITTLE
HIGHER AND KEEP THE SNOW GOING INTO FRI.

THE MAIN SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS ON FRI...WHICH MAY
LEAD TO ANOTHER BURST OF SNOW OVER SOUTHEAST KS FOR THE DAYTIME
HOURS ON FRI. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AREA...AS THIS SECOND
ROUND OF SNOW MAY LEAD TO INCREASING SNOW TOTALS INTO FRI ACROSS SE
KS...FOR AREAS SOUTHEAST OF THE FLINT HILLS. DURATION AND MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS MAY LEAD TO SNOW TOTALS IN THE 3 TO 5 INCH RANGE BY
FRI EVE. STAY TUNED.

COULD SEE SOME OF THE COLDEST TEMPS OF THE SEASON SO FAR FOR FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING...WITH FRESH SNOW COVER EXPECTED AND CLEARING
SKIES.

SAT-MON: COLD TEMPS LOOK TO MAKE AN EXTENDED STAY INTO THE
WEEKEND...AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS KEEP THE ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE
AT LEAST THROUGH MON. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
COMING OUT OF THE SW US INTO THE PLAINS ON SUN...WHICH WILL LEAD
TO ANOTHER LIGHT SNOW CHANCE FOR THE MOST LOCATIONS. QUICK HITTING
NATURE TO THIS SHORTWAVE WILL NOT ALLOW FOR A LONG DURATION SNOW
CHANCE. BUT CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER ACCUMULATING SNOW CHANCE.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CST TUE DEC 3 2013

DENSE FOG THAT WAS PRESENT THIS MORNING IS NOW LIFTING...GIVING
WAY TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY VFR CONDITIONS AT KICT AND KCNU. THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE THE NEXT MAIN ISSUE AND THEN AGAIN FOG AND LOW
STATUS WILL BE PRESENT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY
MAKING ITS WAY SOUTHWARD WITH A WIND SHIFT AT KRSL BY THIS
ISSUANCE. BUT THE MAIN COLD FRONT AND COLD AIR WILL BE HERE
TONIGHT. ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT LOW STRATUS WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERN IN THE MVFR RANGE WITH THE WIND DIRECTION SWITCHING TO THE
NORTH WITH GUSTY WINDS. HOWEVER...AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS...THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND SLIGHT
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PRIME THE AREA FOR FOG AGAIN. HAVE PUT A MENTION
IN...BUT ONLY DROPPED THE CONDITIONS TO MVFR AT THIS TIME.
SOMETHING TO WATCH THIS EVENING AS CONDITIONS DEVELOP.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    63  30  38  22 /   0   0   0  10
HUTCHINSON      63  28  35  19 /   0  10   0  10
NEWTON          62  28  36  20 /   0  10   0  10
ELDORADO        63  31  38  21 /   0   0  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   65  33  40  24 /   0   0   0  10
RUSSELL         61  22  32  15 /   0  10  10  20
GREAT BEND      62  23  33  16 /   0  10   0  20
SALINA          62  26  34  19 /   0  10  10  20
MCPHERSON       62  27  34  19 /   0  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     66  38  44  26 /   0   0   0  10
CHANUTE         64  36  42  24 /   0   0  10  10
IOLA            64  36  41  23 /   0   0  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    65  37  43  25 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$