Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 180544
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1144 PM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 312 PM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

A shortwave trough over the Southern Plains is progged to lift E-NE
through Saturday while a mid/upper ridge builds over the Central
Plains in it`s wake. A weak front bisecting central KS tonight will
mix out with light southerly winds returning across the area on Sat.
Ahead of this front tonight, we may see some patchy fog with
continued low level moisture advection across much of Southern KS,
but confidence remains fairly low. Another mild day is anticipated
on Sat with afternoon highs ranging form the upper 60s to around 70
in most locations.

A vigorous shortwave trough impacting California today will progress
slowly eastward through the weekend emerging over the Rockies late
Sunday. Low level moisture will be transported north across the
Central Plains ahead of this system bringing increasing chances for
rain late Sun into early Mon. The Pacific front will keep
temperatures mild for Feb with highs Sun-Mon remaining near 70.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 312 PM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

Mild and dry weather will return for Tue-Thu with unseasonably mild
temperatures continuing across the area. A vigorous trough moving
over the Northern Plains late Thu into Friday will drive a cold
front south across the area bringing more seasonable air and a
chance for rain and snow to the area by the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1134 PM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

Aviation concerns are expected to remain on the low side through
the next 24 hours.

Upper low is currently situated over eastern OK and is quickly
moving into the Ozark region. The light showers/sprinkles that
were over eastern OK/se KS dissipated a few hours ago with just an
upper deck left. The Plains will quickly get back into return flow
as a deep upper trough slowly tracks over the western CONUS.
Previous model runs were showing some lower cigs working into
south central KS early Sat afternoon but 00z runs have backed off
of this. So confidence has increased that VFR conditions will
remain through this taf period.

Weak surface trough extends from southeast Nebraska into sw KS and
is expected to gradually wash out over central KS by Sat morning.
So winds over central KS will gradually come around to the
northeast and eventually southeast by early Sat evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 312 PM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

Southeast winds will increase with gusts to 20 or 25 mph across
much of Central KS on Sunday allowing the grassland fire danger
index to climb into the very high category on Sunday afternoon
across portions of Central KS. Plans for outdoor burning on Sunday
across Central Kansas should be postponed.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    46  70  49  72 /  10   0  10  10
Hutchinson      41  69  47  70 /   0   0  10  10
Newton          44  68  48  70 /   0   0  10  10
ElDorado        47  69  48  72 /  10   0  10  10
Winfield-KWLD   49  69  49  73 /  10   0   0  10
Russell         35  67  44  70 /   0   0  10  10
Great Bend      35  68  44  69 /   0   0  10  10
Salina          40  68  46  71 /   0   0  10  10
McPherson       40  68  46  70 /   0   0  10  10
Coffeyville     47  69  48  75 /  10  10   0  10
Chanute         47  69  48  74 /  10  10   0  10
Iola            47  69  48  73 /  10   0   0  10
Parsons-KPPF    48  69  49  75 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MWM
LONG TERM...MWM
AVIATION...RBL
FIRE WEATHER...MWM



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