000
FXUS63 KICT 251912
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
212 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017

An extremely high amplitude pattern continues to cover the CONUS
with STRONG high pressure covering roughly the southeastern third
of the country while a DEEP upper-deck trof continues to dig due S
from the Northern Rockies to Baja CA. Furthermore, Maria, although
rated Category 1, continues to churn ~200 miles off the SC Coast.
The strong upper high anchored over the Eastern U.S. continues to
cause an atmospheric "traffic jam" which would prevent the Western
U.S. upper trof from making much, if any, eastward progress. The
"initial" upper-deck low that is attempting to develop generally
over WY will get forced NE by the afore-mentioned upper-high. As
such the widespread showers & isolated/scattered thunderstorms
occurring from Central & Eastern Nebraska across Western KS to the
OK/TX Panhandles will make slow progress east across KICT Country.
Instability is greatly lacking, but the training along the SLOW,
SE-moving but strong cold front would result in copious rainfalls
across most of KS, especially Central & South-Central KS through
Tue Morning. With the initial mid-upper low filling as it lifts NE
across the far Northern Plains Tue afternoon & evening the faucet
should get turned down from Tue afternoon thru Wed Night with most
rainfall confined to Southern KS.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017

The rest of the week should be predominantly dry as large high
pressure spreads SE into the Great Plains. The next chance for
rain & possibly thunderstorms shouldn`t arrive until perhaps Sat
Night when the next mid-upper shortwave (which is quite robust)
is scheduled to cross the Northern Rockies Sat afternoon then into
the Northern & Central Plains Sat Night & Sun. Don`t be surprised
if PoPs are increased for next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 208 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017

The cold front is now moving through the region. MVFR and IFR
conditions can be expected at most terminals this afternoon,
especially at the SLN, HUT and ICT terminals this afternoon. Light
rain and some fog is possible over much of the Central Kansas in
the RSL and GBD areas tonight. CNU will be the last to get into
the showers and thunderstorms and are not expected to get any rain
until this evening and overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    60  69  57  71 /  80  70  40  30
Hutchinson      56  68  54  70 /  90  60  30  20
Newton          57  67  54  70 /  80  70  30  20
ElDorado        62  69  56  71 /  70  70  40  30
Winfield-KWLD   63  71  57  71 /  70  70  50  40
Russell         51  66  50  70 /  80  20  10  10
Great Bend      52  66  50  69 /  90  30  20  10
Salina          56  67  53  71 /  90  50  20  10
McPherson       55  67  53  70 /  90  60  20  10
Coffeyville     67  79  60  73 /  20  50  50  40
Chanute         66  76  59  72 /  40  60  40  40
Iola            66  75  58  71 /  40  60  40  40
Parsons-KPPF    67  78  61  72 /  30  50  50  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EPS
LONG TERM...EPS
AVIATION...ELM