000
FXUS63 KICT 051155
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
555 AM CST THU DEC 5 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CST THU DEC 5 2013

TDY-TNGT: PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...AHEAD OF
APPROACHING WESTERN CONUS TROUGH AND ALSO RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
UPPER MIDWEST JET STREAK...SHOULD ALLOW FOR PERIODIC SNOW FLURRIES
AND/OR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. VERY LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES HAS BEGUN OVER PORTIONS OF CEN KS EARLY THIS
MORNING....AS MOST OF CEN KS GETS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE JET
STREAK MOVING ACROSS NEB/INTO IA. LAPSE RATES AND SYNOPTIC LIFT
WITHIN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION ISNT THAT SPECTACULAR...WITH MOST OF
THE LIFT ACTUALLY BELOW THE SNOW GROWTH REGION. WHICH WOULD
ACTUALLY DIMINISH SNOW CHANCES TO MAINLY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
FOR MOST LOCATIONS TODAY. EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO REMAIN
LIGHT...WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING NOTHING MORE THAT A DUSTING
UPTO A HALF AN INCH.

MAIN WESTERN CONUS TROUGH FINALLY EJECTS NORTHEAST INTO THE SRN
PLAINS TONIGHT-FRI. INCREASED MID-LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTOGENESIS SHOULD ALLOW AN INCREASE IN LIGHT SNOW
COVERAGE OVER FAR SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST KS LATE TNGT INTO FRI.
HOWEVER...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP MOST OF THIS SYSTEM
FURTHER SOUTH...WITH THE BRUNT OF THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
OVER OKLAHOMA...ARKANSAS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI. CONSEQUENTLY...SNOW
AMOUNTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS SHOULD STAY AROUND 1-2 INCHES OVER FAR
SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST KS BY FRI MORNING.

FRI: THE WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS LOOK TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION AT LEAST UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. CERTAINLY COULD SEE
MIN TEMPS DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OR TEENS WITH A LIGHT
DUSTING OF SNOW ON THE GROUND FOR FRI/SAT MORNINGS.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CST THU DEC 5 2013

SAT-SUN: CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR A LIGHT SNOW CHANCE
FOR THE WEEKEND...AS THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE
THAT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL COME OUT OF THE DEEP WRN US TROUGH INTO
THE PLAINS FOR SAT EVENING-SUN. 850-700H WARM ADVECTION/MOISTURE
ADVECTION OVER THE TOP OF THE SHALLOW COLD AIR INCREASES FOR SAT
EVENING. INITIALLY THE MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME SOME
DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LAYERS...BUT THINK BY SAT EVENING...MOST
LOCATIONS WILL SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES MOVE INTO THE AREA.

THIS LIGHT SNOW CHANCE WILL LINGER INTO SUN...AS SOME DEEPER LIFT
AND EVEN SOME SLANTWISE VERTICAL MOTION MOVES ACROSS CEN KS. THINK A
WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCHES LOOK POSSIBLE...AS THIS LIFT MOVES
ACROSS...BUT THE SLANTWISE LIFT COULD LEAD TO SOME HEAVIER SNOWFALL
RATES/BURSTS FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SUN...ESPECIALLY OVER CEN
KS...WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME AREAS PICKING UP 2 TO 4 INCHES. WILL
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM FOR ANY KIND OF TRAVEL CONCERNS
AND HEADLINES WITH LATER FORECASTS.

REST OF THE EXTENDED: MID TO UPPER FLOW LOOKS TO SHIFT MORE TO
THE W-NW FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK...AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE
SHIFTS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS TO CONTINUE FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK...BUT A SLOW
WARMING TREND WILL RETURN TO THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 555 AM CST THU DEC 5 2013

ALL AREAS TO MAINTAIN VFR STATUS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WHEN MVFR CIGS
MAY SPREAD ACROSS SE KS ~03Z WHERE AREAS OF -SN WOULD DEVELOP ALONG
AND NW OF AN ELEVATED NE-SW ORIENTED STATIONARY FRONT. SCT --SN IS
ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS SRN KS BUT WILL NOT ADVERSELY AFFECT CIGS &/OR
VSBYS AT KICT & KHUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    25  18  22   7 /  30  30  10  10
HUTCHINSON      23  14  20   6 /  30  30  10  10
NEWTON          22  14  19   6 /  20  30  10  10
ELDORADO        24  16  21   7 /  20  30  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   27  17  22   8 /  30  50  20  10
RUSSELL         22   9  18   2 /  20  20   0  10
GREAT BEND      21  10  19   3 /  30  20  10  10
SALINA          23  12  19   4 /  20  20  10  10
MCPHERSON       22  13  19   5 /  20  20  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     29  17  24   8 /  40  60  60  10
CHANUTE         26  15  22   8 /  30  50  40  10
IOLA            26  16  21   8 /  30  40  30  10
PARSONS-KPPF    28  15  23   8 /  40  60  50  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

ES