Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 222255
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
555 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 350 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

A progressive pattern is on the way. There is a ridge
over central North America with a trough on the west coast of U.S.
and a short wave a little further east over the Rockies in Canada.
Moisture infiltrating the region has lent to cloud cover through
the day.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

This evening there is still a chance for some drizzle or light rain
tonight, and chances have been increased for much of the area with
upward moisture and probability trends in the models. CONSMOS was
used again for wind speeds on Thursday even increasing speeds in the
morning. Grassland Fire Danger Index values with the stronger winds
on Thursday are in the very high to extreme category. Check the Fire
Weather section of this discussion.

The above mentioned trough over the western CONUS will move east and
be over the Colorado front range by Thursday evening into Friday.
This trough will move across the Central Plains to end the week
which will bode potential for some thunderstorm activity. Convection
in the High Plains could still move eastward into central Kansas on
Thursday night. Therefore the possibility of strong or even a few
severe storms exists. On Friday afternoon and evening, the dry line
will move through the central and eastern portions of the state. As
mentioned in the previous discussion, shear is pronounced with bulk
shear values near 80kts, but the instability is minimal. GFS shows
mixed layer CAPE values ~600j/kg in the Flint Hills. The main
concern would be quarter sized hail and wind gusts to 60 mph. As
the system exits on Saturday, there will be chances of
precipitation along the Kansas and Missouri borders for the first
part of the day.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

A brief transition following the exiting system will occur for
Saturday as the next shortwave is hot on its tail for Sunday into
the first part of next week. Timing on this system keeps the ears
perked with the potential to tap in on the daytime heating. While
shear is not as high as Friday, the instability is certainly
greater mainly across the central state borders of Kansas and
Oklahoma. Better forcing is indicated in Oklahoma with the
movement of the dryline; however, the parameters suggest there could
be strong thunderstorms on the Oklahoma border on Sunday evening.
The beginning of next week continues to have chances of
precipitation, but the subsequent system would indicate the latter
part of the week would be more likely.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 550 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

Poor aviation conditions expected for later tonight into Thursday
morning as increasing low-level moisture drops low clouds into the
IFR/LIFR category late tonight. Also will see some decreases in
visibility as drizzle begins to develop across central/south
central Kansas. The cloud heights will gradually rise by late
Thursday morning along with gusty south winds.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 350 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

Grassland Fire Danger Index values with the stronger
winds on Thursday are in the very high to extreme category with the
highest values along and west of Kansas Highway 14. The higher dew
point temperatures and cloud cover could adjust these values thus
any headlines were not issued. Several chances of precipitation
exist in this forecast which would improve fire weather conditions
depending on the total rainfall.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    50  79  59  74 /  40  20  20  40
Hutchinson      49  79  58  73 /  40  20  30  40
Newton          48  76  58  72 /  40  20  20  40
ElDorado        49  78  59  73 /  40  20  20  50
Winfield-KWLD   51  79  59  75 /  40  20  30  50
Russell         46  81  55  69 /  40  20  30  40
Great Bend      47  81  55  70 /  30  20  30  30
Salina          49  80  59  74 /  40  20  30  40
McPherson       47  78  57  73 /  40  20  20  40
Coffeyville     51  79  60  71 /  40  10  10  80
Chanute         50  78  60  71 /  40  20   0  80
Iola            50  77  59  70 /  40  20   0  80
Parsons-KPPF    51  78  61  71 /  40  10  10  80

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VJP
SHORT TERM...VJP
LONG TERM...VJP
AVIATION...CDJ
FIRE WEATHER...VJP



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