000
FXUS63 KICT 080327
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
927 PM CST SAT DEC 7 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 927 PM CST SAT DEC 7 2013

CURRENT OVERNIGHT FORECAST SEEMINGLY ON TRACK. PERSISTENT LOW AND
MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES TO PROMOTE
FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW AND LOWERING CEILINGS ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE UPPER TROF/PV ANOMALY. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS OF AROUND AN
INCH AND A HALF LIKELY ALONG/NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR AND
MAINLY AN INCH OR LESS FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA
LOOKS REASONABLE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY FALL OFF A FEW MORE
DEGREES AND REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY OVERNIGHT...WHICH IS AGAIN
HANDLED WELL IN THE CURRENT FORECAST GRIDS.

KED

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST SAT DEC 7 2013

TONIGHT-SUN:
GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION ALREADY UNDERWAY BASED ON RADAR ECHOES
SHOWING PRECIPITATION ALOFT. BIG QUESTION IS HOW QUICK/SOON COLUMN
WILL SATURATE TO THE SURFACE. WHILE A FEW FLAKES HAVE BEEN
REPORTED IN WESTERN RENO COUNTY...BULK IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL AFT
03Z AND MORE LIKELY CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT. DYNAMICS AND LAPSE RATES
ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE AND WOULD SUGGEST LOW AMOUNTS. HOWEVER THE DEEP
ISOTHERMAL SNOW GROWTH ZONE IN CENTRAL KS AND LONG DURATION OF
EVENT /ROUGHLY MIDNIGHT TO NOON SUN/...SUGGESTS SOME LOW END ADVISORY
CRITERIA IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE NORTH OF I-70. HAVE HELD OFF ON
ADVISORY FOR NOW DUE TO CONSENSUS...BUT HIGHEST AMOUNTS COULD
REACH 2.5 INCHES...1.5 TO 2.5 THE MOST LIKELY AMOUNT N OF I-70.  COMBO
OF CLOUDS/WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES UP OVERNIGHT COMPARED
TO LAST NIGHT...BUT ALSO LIMIT THE MODEST WARM UP ON SUN.

SUN NIGHT-TUE:
CLOUDS LINGERING IN THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN INFLUX OF DENSE MID/
HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST TOWARDS DAYBREAK MON WILL LIMIT
TEMPERATURE FALL ACROSS SOUTHEAST HALF. WITH SNOW...LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE NORTH...LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MUCH
COLDER. WARMUP ON MON WILL BE SERIOUSLY LIMITED BY EXTENSIVE
CLOUDS OVER ALL BUT EXTREME NORTHWEST SECTIONS. WITH VORTICITY
LOBE FINALLY ROTATING THROUGH LONGWAVE TROUGH...WILL HAVE SOME
POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF BAND OF PRECIPITATION ALONG KS/OK BORDER...
MOST LIKELY MON NIGHT. AGAIN WITH RELATIVELY DRY AIR AND MODEST
DYNAMICS...ONLY EXPECTING SOME FLURRIES AT THIS TIME. TUE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD FINALLY CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING OVER THE AREA...
WITH DECENT INSOLATION AND SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST SAT DEC 7 2013

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE BOTH SHOWING A BIT MORE VARIATION AS THEY
STRUGGLE WITH THE PATTERN CHANGE THAT IS EXPECTED THIS PERIOD. KEY
IS WHETHER UPPER LOW WILL GET CUT OFF SOUTHWEST US CST...OR
REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. DEPENDING ON
HOW THIS PLAYS OUT...COULD SEE A CONTINUATION OF NORTHWEST
FLOW...OR A TRANSITION TO MORE ZONAL FLOW. EITHER WAY...APPEARS
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE INTO LATE WEEK. THE
QUESTION IS HOW MUCH/HOW SOON. INITIALIZATION/CONSENSUS LIMITED
WARMUP...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE MAXES BY FRI/SAT AT
LEAST 5-8 DEGREE WARMER THAT WHAT IS FORECAST. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 533 PM CST SAT DEC 7 2013

A BROAD AREA OF WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN CONTINUED DOWNWARD
SATURATION FROM VFR TO MVFR CIGS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AREAS OF
LIGHT SNOW WITH IFR VSBYS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. THE
BETTER LIFT WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY ON SUNDAY
WITH GENERAL IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS/VSBYS...THOUGH MVFR CATEGORY
CIGS MAY LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL
SLIDE SOUTHEAST FROM COLORADO INTO THE PANHANDLES BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    16  27  14  21 /  50  30  10  10
HUTCHINSON      15  24   9  20 /  60  30  10  10
NEWTON          15  26  11  19 /  50  30  10  10
ELDORADO        17  27  15  20 /  50  30  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   18  28  17  23 /  50  20  10  10
RUSSELL         12  22   2  19 /  70  50  10   0
GREAT BEND      13  23   5  19 /  70  30  10   0
SALINA          14  25   8  21 /  70  60  10   0
MCPHERSON       14  24   9  19 /  60  40  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     20  31  20  25 /  40  20  10  10
CHANUTE         20  29  19  22 /  40  30  10  10
IOLA            19  28  18  22 /  50  40  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    19  30  18  23 /  40  30  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$