Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 200802
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
302 AM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 258 AM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017

A sagging cold front across central KS early this morning is progged
to become stationary along and east of the Kansas Turnpike this
afternoon. A rogue storm or two may overcome the cap in the
vicinity of the front after 22-23Z across mainly southeast KS. If
a storm can develop we may see a severe updraft or two given
robust MLCAPE and relatively steep H7-H5 lapse rates although the
deep layer shear (speed & directional) will be more marginal.
Better chances may come during the evening hours, especially north
and east of our forecast area as moisture transport increases.

Thu-Fri...The pattern will change very little across the central
Conus through the end of the week as a deep mid/upper trough
builds slowly over the central Great Basin area and a mid/upper
ridge amplifies across the Middle Mississippi Valley and Great
Lakes area. This will allow southwest mid/upper flow to prevail
through the period with continued hot, dry and windy conditions
across the central Plains states.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 258 AM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017

Hot and dry weather conditions will prevail at the beginning of
the period before the large trough across the Central Great Basin
area propagates eastward bringing increasing chances for showers
and storms to the central Plains states as we move into early next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1203 AM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017

At 05Z a fairly strong cold front is curving from extreme Ern SD,
thru extreme SC Nebraska near KEAR & NW KS to Ern CO. The front`s
SE progress will be the challenge of this forecast. All short-term
solutions predict the front will apply the brakes as it nears the
KS Turnpike ~20/21Z. Considering how massive the sfc high covering
the Ern U.S. is this makes sense. As such no longer expect the
front to reach KICT til mid Wed afternoon. Until the front passes
LLWS will continue across all areas with 48-52kts likely ~2,000ft.
All terminals should remain VFR but will need to watch for SCT-BKN
stratocu ~3,500ft at KICT & KCNU Wed morning.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    93  74  93  72 /  10  10  10  10
Hutchinson      89  69  93  72 /   0  10  10  10
Newton          90  72  92  71 /  10  10  10  10
ElDorado        90  75  91  72 /  20  20  10  10
Winfield-KWLD   92  75  92  72 /  10  20  10  10
Russell         84  59  95  72 /   0   0  10  10
Great Bend      85  60  95  72 /   0   0  10  10
Salina          89  69  95  74 /   0  10  10  10
McPherson       88  68  93  71 /   0  10  10  10
Coffeyville     92  74  91  72 /  10  20  10  10
Chanute         91  74  91  71 /  20  20  10  10
Iola            90  73  90  70 /  20  20  10   0
Parsons-KPPF    91  74  91  72 /  10  20  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MWM
LONG TERM...MWM
AVIATION...EPS



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