


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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197 FXUS63 KICT 111929 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 229 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and storms possible this afternoon through tonight, with continued chances for rain through the middle of next week. - A minor cooldown arrives this weekend before a brief warmup to start next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 229 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Water vapor imagery this afternoon indicates a mid/upper shortwave moving through the Central Plains while a stronger wave begins to encroach on the Northern Plains. At the surface, a cold front is draped from northeast Kansas to the Oklahoma Panhandle as a second cold front spans from the Dakotas to the Nebraska Panhandle. A handful of showers were observed in the pre-frontal zone of the Kansas boundary as it progressed through the state this morning. Short-range guidance suggests this will provide forcing for broader coverage of showers and storms later this afternoon and evening over southeast Kansas, where better instability and higher PW values reside. Limited deep-layer shear should largely preclude chances for large hail, though a few quarter sized hailstones can`t be ruled out in the strongest storms considering CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg across the area. Otherwise, the primary threat through the evening hours will likely remain strong/damaging winds and locally heavy rainfall. PRECIPITATION: Models continue to stall out the front over southeast Kansas tonight into Saturday, which will provide continued rain chances throughout the area through the weekend. Limited severe potential is expected with this activity considering warm mid-level temperatures. Still appears that southern Kansas will see the best chances for precipitation through Sunday. Could see a few showers making their way into central Kansas Saturday, but the main activity should primarily stay along/south of US-54/400. Chances for rain will continue through at least the middle of next week given weak ripples in mid/upper flow. Southeast Kansas appears to have the best chances for showers and storms through Tuesday before yet another shortwave brings a cold front into the area Tuesday night into Wednesday. This will cause rain chances to once again return to a majority of the region and keep the active pattern in place through at least Thursday. TEMPERATURES: Following today`s heat, the cold front moving through the region will result in slightly cooler highs this weekend (middle 80s to low 90s) before a brief warmup to start the work week (upper 80s and upper 90s). A cold front progressing through the area on Tuesday will bring mid-week high temperatures back to near-normal, with readings near 90 anticipated to close out the week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1249 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 VFR conditions are expected through much of the period. A weak cold front is moving through the area, shifting winds to the northwest at 5-15 kt with occasional gusts up to 25 kt. These wind speeds will decrease to 5-12 kt by 04Z. A few storms are possible across south-central and eastern KS this afternoon and evening. Confidence remains too low for any prevailing and have maintained the PROB30 groups at ICT and CNU. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JWK AVIATION...BRF