Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 281724
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1224 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR LATE JULY
WILL BE IN STORE FOR KANSAS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK...AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES...WITH STRONG TROUGH AGAIN
DROPPING SOUTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL LEAD TO COOL CANADIAN
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FOR TODAY THROUGH
EARLY TUE WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AND COOLER DRIER AIR.

CURRENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
WAVE NEAR OREGON. THIS WAVE WILL RIDE OVER TOP THE UPPER RIDGE AND
THEN DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS IMPULSE AS
IT DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...BUT GENERAL TREND WILL BE
FOR MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO INCREASE INITIALLY OVER WESTERN KANSAS
WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY.

SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING OF THE INCREASED HIGH PLAINS MOISTURE
AND ITS PROGRESSION BACK TO THE EAST TOWARDS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA...AS THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD WILL HAVE A
SHARP CUTOFF AS IT ENCOUNTERS DRIER AIR OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF KS
AND THE MISSOURI VALLEY.

BUT MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST BRINGING BACK MOISTURE SOONER...SO WILL
INTRODUCE SOME POPS FOR AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 135 BY TUE MORNING.
THINK THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD FOR AREAS SW OF A KRSL TO KWLD LINE FOR TUES AFTERNOON
INTO TUE NIGHT...AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT
INCREASES. SO WILL INCREASE POPS FOR THIS TIME FRAME AS WELL. NOT
ALOT OF INSTABILITY WILL BE AVAILABLE WITH THIS MOISTURE...SO
THINKING MORE OF A SHOWER AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.  COULD SEE THE
SHOWERS TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS SW OF KICT...FOR AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF TIME FOR TUE NIGHT...WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME HEALTHY
RAINFALL TOTALS BY WED MORNING.

THINK THE SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCE WILL CONTINUE INTO WED
AS WELL AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WHICH MAY LEAD TO A RATHER RAINY AND GREY DAY FOR
MOST OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS FOR WED.

THE RAINY/CLOUDY DAY ON WED WILL ALSO LEAD TO MAX TEMPS STRUGGLING
TO CLIMB OUT OF THE 70S.  NAM/WRF EVEN KEEPS SOME AREAS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL KS IN THE UPPER 60S...SO WILL TREND TEMPS FOR WED DOWN SOME
WITH THIS IN MIND.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

THE COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR THU INTO THE
WEEKEND AS WELL....AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHOWS VERY LITTLE
CHANGE WITH THE DEEP TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS ON THE LIGHTER SIDE AS WELL MAKING FOR SOME
PLEASANT WEATHER DAYS. COULD SEE SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS
FOR FRIDAY EVENING AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL PROVIDE MINIMAL CAPPING AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD.
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THRU
TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. LIGHT WINDS WITH JUST A FEW MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    87  65  85  65 /  10  10  40  60
HUTCHINSON      86  64  85  64 /  10  10  30  50
NEWTON          85  63  84  63 /  10  10  20  40
ELDORADO        85  63  85  63 /  10   0  20  40
WINFIELD-KWLD   87  65  85  64 /  10  10  40  60
RUSSELL         86  63  85  63 /  10  10  30  40
GREAT BEND      86  63  84  62 /  10  10  50  60
SALINA          87  64  86  64 /  10  10  20  30
MCPHERSON       86  64  85  63 /  10  10  20  40
COFFEYVILLE     84  62  86  63 /  10   0  20  30
CHANUTE         84  61  85  63 /  10   0  10  20
IOLA            83  61  84  62 /  10   0  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    84  61  85  62 /  10   0  20  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$







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