411
FXUS63 KICT 111815
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
115 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widely scattered showers and storms are possible this afternoon
  and tonight with rain chances continuing through much of next week.

- Warm again today with a brief cooldown this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 234 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

A shortwave trough moving over the Central Plains today will drive a
frontal boundary southward into to the area. This boundary may become
a focus for showers and storms this afternoon and tonight within a
zone of low level mass convergence within the trough axis. A
relatively deeply mixed pbl and associated inverted-v progged
soundings would support strong/damaging winds with any storms that
develop. The window for sfc-based storms may be relatively short-
lived with the cap progged to weaken between 22Z-02Z. Some storms
could linger into the overnight hours but pops were lowered as storm
coverage is expected to be isolated or widely scattered.

A mid/upper trough axis remains situated over the central CONUS on
Sat before translating eastward on Sunday. This is expected to allow
the sfc frontal boundary to meander over the Central and perhaps
Southern Plains through the period. The boundary will likely become
a focus for additional shower and thunderstorm activity, especially
across southern KS through the weekend. Below normal temperatures
will prevail on Sat but we may see some recovery as we move into
Sunday with highs in 80s/around 90.

Mon-Thu...We continue to see a weakness in the mid/upper ridge over
the Central CONUS early in the week keeping a chance of showers and
storms in the forecast. As we move into the middle and latter
portion of the week, another shortwave trough is progged to sweep
across the Northern Plains driving a frontal boundary southward over
the area keeping a chance of storms in the forecast. Seasonably mild
temperatures are expected on Mon and especially Tue with below
normal temperatures anticipated as we move through the middle and
latter portion of the upcoming week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

VFR conditions are expected through much of the period. A weak
cold front is moving through the area, shifting winds to the
northwest at 5-15 kt with occasional gusts up to 25 kt. These
wind speeds will decrease to 5-12 kt by 04Z. A few storms are
possible across south-central and eastern KS this afternoon and
evening. Confidence remains too low for any prevailing and have
maintained the PROB30 groups at ICT and CNU.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MWM
AVIATION...BRF