Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 292329
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
629 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LONGER WAVE-LENGTH RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE WESTERN US WITH A DOWNSTREAM LONGER WAVE-LENGTH UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL US. THIS WILL KEEP THE PLAINS IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

TONIGHT...THE SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS EASTERN KS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN MO AND NORTHEAST OK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP
INTO THE MID 60S.

TUESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. A LEE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ACROSS
WESTERN KS AND EXTEND SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN NM. SOUTHWESTERLY
SURFACE AND 850MB WINDS WILL ADVECT WARMER AIR NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
CWA. 850MB TEMPS WILL WARM TO AROUND 28 DEGREE C ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA, WHICH WOULD RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES. THE
EASTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA WILL BE A BIT COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 90S EXPECTED. DUE TO DEEPER MIXING (820-840MB),
DEWPOINTS SHOULD MIX DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THEREFORE, THE APPARENT TEMPERATURE SHOULD EQUAL
THE AIR TEMPERATURE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A COUPLE DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE TO
THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN THAT TIME FRAME. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
DISTURBANCES WILL BE GREATEST TO OUR NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...EXPECT
SOME PRECIP TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST KS...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE
IN THE FAR NORTHEAST/EAST...AND THE LOWEST CHANCES FARTHER WEST.

LATE WEEK HAS MANY FORECAST CHALLENGES AS LONG-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE
IS NOT VERY CONSISTENT AND SEEMS TO BE HAVING A VERY HARD TIME
MAINTAINING MUCH CONTINUITY.  THAT SAID, FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS STILL EXISTS.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TO TRAVERSE FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS.  DIFFERENCES ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE WAVES IS ONE PROBLEM WITH THE GUIDANCE AT THIS
POINT.  BUT THE BEST TIME FRAME FOR ANOTHER COOL FRONT TO ENTER THE
OUTLOOK AREA IS STILL OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO THE LATE MORNING
FRIDAY.  THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS BEFORE
SATURDAY.  THE TREND FOR MOST OF SATURDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE MAINLY
DRY WITH THE BOUNDARY LIKELY STALLING OUT OF SOUTHERN KS AND
LINGERING THERE.  COULDN`T RULE OUT SOME AFTERNOON/EVENING STORM
DEVELOPMENT ON THE 4TH, BUT AT THIS POINT CHANCES ARE STILL SMALL
WITH NOT A LOT IN THE WAY OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING TO AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT AND MOST LIKELY SOME CLOUDS HINDERING DAYTIME HEATING
THEREFORE PROBABLY NOT ALLOWING INSTABILITY TO AID IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THAT WOULD BE WIDESPREAD.  AGAIN, TIMING DIFFERENCES
COULD BE IMPORTANT IN THE OVERALL DEVELOPMENT OF ANY ACTIVITY.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATE FRONT COULD AFFECT THE OUTLOOK AREA
ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOESN`T BUILD
BACK INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION AS PROGGED MORE SO BY THE
ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

VFR PREVAILS AT TERMINALS AS WEAK WESTERLY WINDS GRADUALLY BACK TO
THE SOUTHWEST BY LATE AFTERNOON BELOW 10 KTS.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GARGAN
LONG TERM...DRAKE/GDP
AVIATION...BOWEN



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