Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 211123
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
523 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 320 AM CST WED JAN 21 2015

Northwest flow pattern persists over the area today while a fairly
strong short wave trough is developing over the four corners
through Thursday morning. This short wave energy and associated
moisture plume will remain south of the forecast area through
tonight, and expect little more than an increase in high cloud
cover. Meanwhile, the continued northwest flow will advect cooler
temperatures into the area with highs expected to be 5-10 degrees
cooler than Tuesday. Dry conditions will continue overnight, and
while winds should be very light, expect abundant high cloud cover
to moderate low temperatures and hold them in the middle to upper
20s. Any clearing would probably lead to lows falling 5 degrees
colder or more.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 320 AM CST WED JAN 21 2015

On Thursday, the longwave upper trough axis stretches from the
southwest region through the plains and Midwest. Available moisture
feeding into the system will produce the bulk of the precip south
and west of the region as the axis pivots west Texas and lifts east
towards the weekend. Conditions for northeast Kansas remain dry with
the main question being the modulating temperatures in advance and
wake of the system.

Cloud cover gradually decreases through the afternoon Thursday as
h85 temps near -7C filters southward. Despite the sunshine, guidance
is beginning to trend cooler with an expansive surface high
spreading east into the CWA. While some short term guidance is going
as cool as middle 30s, consensus appeared closer to the upper 30s
and lower 40 range. Southwest flow returns for Friday as h85 temps
increase over western and central Kansas. The slower progression of
the departing trough and subsequent warmer air aloft may mitigate
highs a few degrees cooler during the afternoon with readings in the
upper 40s/lower 50s. The weekend still appears warm as northwesterly
flow increases and the thermal ridge intensifies over the region.
Upper trough late Saturday evening continues to trend further east
as the axis centers over Iowa and Missouri. Chances for measurable
precip becoming more unlikely at this time and have removed pops.
Highs in the middle 50s are common as downslope winds increase to
around 10 to 15 mph. These winds veer to the northwest and increase
between 15 and 25 mph sustained on Sunday. Below zero temps in
Canada spread south into the Great Lakes region, raising some
uncertainty in the cooler air impacting our area Sunday into
Tuesday. Overall pattern would have eastern areas of the CWA being
cooler in the upper 40s while north central areas may reach the
middle 50s for high temps. Lows show little change in the upper 20s
to middle 30s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 518 AM CST WED JAN 21 2015

VFR conditions are likely through at least 06Z, with some
potential for MVFR ceilings moving over TAF sites from the north
between 08Z and 12Z Thursday. Current uncertainty lies in the
coverage of the clouds (SCT vs. OVC) when they arrive at
TOP/FOE/MHK. Otherwise, winds gradually turn from out of the west
early this morning to out of the north or northeast by 12Z
Thursday. A few gusts to around 15 kts are possible this
afternoon.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Barjenbruch





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