Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 292054
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
354 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

This afternoon residual moisture with dewpoints in the lower 60s and
steep low-level lapse rates have caused MLCAPES to reach around
2,000 J/KG across the southern counties of the CWA. The vertical wind
shear is very weak, so I do not expect any strongly rotating
updrafts. Areas south along and south of I-70 could see pulse
severe thunderstorms with up to half dollar size hail and 60 MPH
wind gusts.

The thunderstorm intensity should diminish once we lose surface
heating towards sunset. There still may be scatted elevated
thunderstorms through the night as a lee surface trough deepens
across the central and southern high plains, causing the LLJ to
increase resulting in enough isentropic lift for parcels to reach
their LFC.

Monday, deeper moisture will advect northward across the CWA. We may
see a break during the late morning hours into the mid afternoon
hours, as the stronger WAA shifts north of the CWA. The upper flow
continues to look weak and a stronger EML will over spread the
region. However, given deep moisture in place and surface heating,
plus any left over boundaries, a few afternoon thunderstorms may
once again develop across the CWA during the late afternoon hours.
Quarter size hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary
hazard with any pulse storms. Highs will reach the lower to mid
80s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

Monday night into Tuesday a mid-level trough will be progressing
eastward into the Northern Plains, which should help to push a cold
front into western and central Kansas into Tuesday morning. Models
show this front slowly tracking eastward across the CWA through the
day on Tuesday, with enough moisture and lift present to produce
scattered showers and thunderstorms late Monday night with better
chances for widespread precipitation Tuesday and Tuesday night. With
the front exiting to the east Tuesday night, precipitation should
end from west to east late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.
While models show decent lapse rates Monday night and
Tuesday/Tuesday night to support MUCAPE values of upwards of 2000-
3500 J/kg, 0-6km bulk shear values may struggle to reach 25-30kts.
As a result, widespread strong to severe storms are not expected,
however cannot rule out a few stronger storms that may produce some
marginally severe hail and/or strong wind gusts.

Expect dry conditions finally by Wednesday night as the mid-level
trough tracks eastward toward the Great Lakes area with surface high
pressure advancing into the central U.S. behind the trough. The
forecast area looks to remain under the influence of this high
pressure through Friday with the center of the high shifting
southeast of the area by Saturday and Sunday.  As a result have a
dry forecast from Wednesday night through Sunday. It`s worth noting
that some models are showing some precipitation developing just
north of the forecast area Saturday into Sunday as another mid-level
trough tracks just north of the area before digging southward just
east of the area Sunday into Monday.  Have a dry forecast going at
this time, but will need to monitor that precipitation potential. As
for temperatures, expect highs to be in the mid/upper 70s Tuesday
and Wednesday with the scattered precipitation before warming up
into the upper 70s to low 80s Thursday through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

Expect VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. The isolated
thunderstorms should remain west and south of the terminals.
Terminal MHK may see an isolated shower or thunderstorm late this
afternoon and early evening.


&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...Gargan


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