000
FXUS63 KTOP 261136
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
536 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 313 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

On Monday morning, eastern Kansas remained firmly positioned
under a pattern of fast upper level northwest flow while the low
levels remained dry with a west to southwest breeze. A stream of
short wave troughs continue to pass through the fast flow aloft,
with one such weak trough crossing the central Plains states
today. This will bring a dry front through the forecast area today
with winds switching from southwesterly to northwesterly and
gusting to 20 mph or so with slightly higher gusts in central and
northern KS. Any local lift with this trough is weak and the
airmass quite dry so no precip and little to no cloud cover is
expected. Cold advection will be minimal as well and temperatures
will warm nicely into the lower to middle 60s. Very high fire
danger is also expected in parts of the area this
afternoon...please refer to the Fire Weather forecast discussion
below for more information. Winds will taper through the evening
with weak high pressure building overhead. Temperatures will cool
into the lower 30s with valleys a bit cooler given the light winds
and clear skies.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 313 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

There is little change in the forecast for Tuesday through
Thursday. Temps for Tuesday and Wednesday continue to look above
normal. Although there is some question how deep the boundary
layer might mix across eastern KS on Tuesday as weak ridging
slides east. Because of this kept highs in the upper 50s to around
60 in far eastern KS. The warmer temps should occur across
central KS with upper 60s possible. Wednesday`s highs could be a
little more tricky due to a trough axis moving through the area.
Am not sure there will be strong cold air advection behind the
boundary, but southwest winds ahead of it along with good
insolation could help to push highs a few degrees warmer. With
this in mind have the higher temps over east central KS approaching
70. There does appear to be some cool air advection on Thursday
which should help hold temps down into the 40s. Models still bring
a shortwave across the area Wednesday and Wednesday night. They
also continue to show very little moisture available. Therefore a
dry forecast remains. One adjustment that was made to the forecast
was to increase cloud cover Wednesday night. The NAM and GFS hint
at some stratocu moving south within the cold air advection.

The bigger concern this morning is the curve ball thrown by the
ECMWF for Saturday and Saturday evening. And because the models
have shown poor consistency from run to run, confidence in the
forecast is below average for the beginning of the weekend. In
general the solutions have trended more towards keeping energy
over the southwest phased with the northwest flow rather than a
true cutoff low over the Baja peninsula. This would allow for more
energy to move over the central plains. And all of the operational
runs have some signal for increased chances for precip.
Unfortunately the solutions have obvious differences in timing and
location of the possible storm system. Because of the uncertainty,
have opted to include small pops for Friday night and Saturday
rather than make whole sale changes based on a single model
solution. However the GFS ensemble mean seems to favor a solution
more in line with the ECMWF for Saturday and Saturday evening. So
it will be interesting to see how future model runs trend. Temps
for Friday through Sunday should be cooler with northerly winds
advecting cold air. Just how cold and how long it sticks around
will also depend on how the synoptic pattern evolves next weekend.
So stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 531 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

Shallow fog at TOP will continue through around 1330, with
otherwise VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Through
15Z, winds at 800 feet AGL will also increase to 25-30 kts but
with surface winds increasing this should fall shy of LLWS
criteria. Southwesterly winds during the morning will turn out of
the northwest by afternoon with occasional gusts approaching 20
kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 313 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

A surface trough will move west to east across the area today,
leading to a favorable setup for deeper post-frontal boundary
layer mixing. This should result in warm temperatures, occasional
wind gusts to 20 mph or stronger, and lower dewpoints/RH. Because
of this, very high fire danger is expected to develop mainly
across north central and far northern KS. Confidence in min RH
values is fairly high, although there is small potential to go a
bit lower by late afternoon.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...Barjenbruch
FIRE WEATHER...Barjenbruch/Wolters