678
FXUS63 KTOP 261708
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1208 PM CDT MON SEP 26 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Mon Sep 26 2016

Back edge of Sunday stratus now stretches from northern Wisconsin
southeast through Missouri and into Oklahoma and Texas, leaving
cooler fall air and clear skies in its wake.  Upper low continues to
make slow eastward progress along the US/Canadian border over the
upper midwest.  For the next 24 hours this leaves the Central Plains
under northwesterly flow aloft, with surface high pressure moving
into Oklahoma through the period.  By the end of the day today, nose
of warmer 850mb temps moves east over our area, bringing 850mb temps
of around 12-15C.  With abundant sunshine and mixing today, highs
should reach into the lower 70s across the area.  By the same token,
clear skies and light west winds overnight should allow lows to drop
into the 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Mon Sep 26 2016

On Tuesday the upper low pressure will be located over the Great
Lakes region, while surface high pressure will be centered in TX.
Highs on Tuesday will warm into the mid to upper 70s, but dew points
will remain below 55. On Tuesday night a shortwave trough will dive
around the backside of the upper low sending another cold front
southward. This front will be dry as it will essentially reinforce
the fall air mass in place. Surface high pressure will build
southward out of Canada with the ridge stretched through the area.
This will keep highs in the 70s and cause lows to dip into the 40s
late week. Southwest flow aloft will develop next weekend and weak
shortwaves are forecasted to lift out over the plains. The models
have been back and forth on the exact tracks of these waves, but it
appears that most locations will stay dry as of now. A much stronger
mid level system tracks over the northern US late in the weekend and
into next week. This could bring rain chances back to the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1208 PM CDT Mon Sep 26 2016

VFR conditions are expected throughout the period.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Heller