000
FXUS63 KTOP 090515
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1115 PM CST Sun Dec 8 2013

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 339 PM CST SUN DEC 8 2013

Very light freezing drizzle continues across much of the forecast
area, while a strong shortwave rotating out of the larger scale trof
into central Kansas at this time brings another shot of snow to the
far northwest counties.  Strength of the lift to the south of this
wave continues to wane through the remainder of the afternoon. Will
go ahead and carry the advisory for the NC counties until 5pm when
snow should come to an end. With light nature of the drizzle, will
go ahead and expire southern half with this issuance.

As shortwave moves through, can see its reflection in the surface
wind and pressure pattern. `Warm` front sharpening up generally
along I70, while winds shift to the northwest just west of our CWA.
This push will come through this evening and overnight and bring yet
another reinforcing shot of cold air for tonight and Monday.  So
while precipitation chances come to an end, cold temperatures
continue with lows in the single digits to low teens and highs
Monday only in the teens to low 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 339 PM CST SUN DEC 8 2013

Chances for anything measurable to fall Monday night still look
rather small Monday night as a shortwave passes. Any respectable
moisture remains to the south as the surface high builds in Monday,
and will keep only a flurry mention in the far south. Another
shortwave and cold front pass Tuesday night into Wednesday, though
limited if any time for moisture return will keep the area dry.
Westerly winds Tuesday will help boost temps to around the freezing
point, with northern locations likely remaining cooler with
trajectories along the snow pack. Temps Wednesday will be several
degrees cooler for most locations in the reinforcing shot of
Canadian air.

Medium range models are showing reasonable consistency with cut-off
energy getting ejected out of the Southwest states and into the
Central Plains Friday, with another wave diving in southeast out of
the Pacific Northwest and into the area Saturday. Again, however,
moisture availability is a concern, particularly for Saturday. There
will be a better 24-35 hour window of southerly flow between the
mid-week anticyclone and the first wave. Will increase PoPs a bit at
this point. Temperature profiles would support at least some chance
for a mixture of wintry precip before cooling aloft takes over. The
more zonal flow should keep temperatures from varying far from
mid-December normals.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1114 PM CST SUN DEC 8 2013

For the 06z TAFs, as the winter storm system progresses east of the
area, cloud cover has been diminishing this evening with VFR cigs/vis
expected for much of the overnight hours and continuing through the
day on Monday. Model soundings show mid-level clouds building in
during the late morning and afternoon hours. As surface high
pressure passes eastward over the area on Monday, winds are expected
to back from northwest to southwest by Monday evening.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Hennecke