874
FXUS63 KTOP 292128
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
428 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorm chances continue into Monday, mainly late tonight
  to early Monday morning. Some may be severe producing strong
  winds along with locally heavy rainfall.

- Hot conditions return around Independence Day though not
  looking extreme.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 428 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Will make some minor tweaks to the forecast based on latest
observations. First will be to knock highs a few degrees cooler
over east central KS where clouds and precip later into the day
still have readings in the lower 70s. Second, water vapor and
profiler data suggest an MCV over eastern KS moving southeast.
Subsidence immediately behind this feature is expected to
inhibit redevelopment for several hours and this is supported by
the latest CAM runs. So will limit POPs to around 10 percent
to start out the evening. Third, the HRRR has been showing some
consistency with the linear MCS moving into the area from the
west late tonight. Based on this have adjusted the POP and wind
grinds to show a higher probability for storms with stronger
winds, leaning towards what the HRRR is showing with some gusts
of 35 to 40 mph.

Will be watching the convection off the high plains closely this
evening as it could end up being impactful. Models show plenty
of instability in place ahead of the MCS. While dynamics and
shear should be displaced to the north, an organized cold pool
should remain effective against the marginal CIN progged by the
models. Damaging winds could be an issue during the early
morning hours.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 214 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Thunderstorms continue to develop along an outflow boundary south of
Interstate 35 early this afternoon. This outflow boundary has
stabilized much of the remainder of the area with temperatures in
the lower 70s to mid 80s and cirrus blowoff overhead. Rich surface
moisture remains in place over/near northwest Kansas long the
synoptic front.

Will keep small thunderstorm chances in place into the early evening
with a weak upper wave nearby and late June insolation returning,
but expect most of the activity to from well west and move east
across Kansas overnight. This is seen in recent HRRR runs and the
12Z NSSL-MPAS runs that had a decent handle on the early-day
convection. MUCAPE values vary, but a few thousand J/kg seem likely
with modest a modest low level jet upstream and precipitable water
values around 1.75 inches supporting a severe and heavy rain threat.
Recent HRRR runs also suggest some locally-developing storms in
apparent warm-air advection over the stable boundary layer after
sunset. The isolated heavy rainfall areas from today will need to be
monitored for flooding, but a more progressive system overall seems
favored to limit flooding concerns. An upper wave to the north
should shove the effective boundary and higher PW airmass south
through the day Monday for decreasing precipitation chances.

Somewhat cooler and drier air works in for the next few periods.
Southerly low-level flow returns in the middle to late week as an
upper ridge builds east from the Rockies for warmer and more humid
conditions around Thursday. Storm chances may return though capping
may again be present.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Confidence in additional thunderstorm activity remains muted.
More stable conditions are expected through at least the next
several hours, with greater potential for convection coming in
from the west after 06Z. Went with a PROB mention for now. Winds
should diminish and back as conditions return to more
synoptically-driven in the next few hours.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Wolters
DISCUSSION...Poage
AVIATION...Poage