Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 211120
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
620 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 255 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

A secondary push of cold dry air will continue to work into the
region today. The morning low temperatures will range from the
upper 50s south near interstate 35 to the lower 50s near the NE/KS
state line. Today will be mostly sunny as high pressure builds in
from the northwest. With highs in the mid to upper 70s and lower
dew points today will feel quite comfortable. As the mid/upper
level digs into the Great Lakes region a decent low level jet out
of the northwest passes over the area. With daytime mixing up to
about 800 mb some of that energy will transfer down to the
surface. Northerly winds gusts around 15 to 25 mph will be common
mid day especially in northeast KS. As the high pressure ridge
moves into the forecast area later tonight winds will go calm.
Light winds and clear skies allow for radiational cooling, which
may be enough for fog to develop in favorable areas. Dew points
will also be on the decrease and low temperatures drop into the
mid to upper 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 255 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

Monday continues to bring cooler dry conditions with highs in the
70s, as the surface high slides into the Ohio valley. By late in
the evening, the next upper trof is on approach from the west and
will slowly spread precipitation across the area from west to east
through Tuesday. Chances continue into Wednesday as trof makes
slow progress across the Northern Plains and into the Great Lakes
by Wednesday evening. CAPE is modest, and thunder would be
expected, but shear and lapse rates are weak, likely making for
more showers with embedded thunder than widespread thunderstorms.

Have continued to carry some low end PoP chances for Thursday and
Thursday night as system weakens and even retrogrades westward
with time. Some consensus in keeping area between the large scale
western trof and eastern ridge aloft, and have kept a dry forecast
with highs slowly climbing back toward 80.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 612 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

VFR expected through the daytime hours. Later this evening and
overnight light winds and clear skies will set up the potential
for ground fog at TOP/MHK. If dry air advection wins out then fog
will likely be limited.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...Sanders





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