Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 231945

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
145 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 145 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

Light and variable winds has not deterred the warming temperatures
this afternoon. Latest high resolution guidance is trending slightly
warmer than previous forecast, leading to an update of middle to
upper 60s. Would not be surprised if Concordia comes close to their
record high of 71 degrees today with anticipated high of 69 degrees.
For these reasons and latest MOS guidance coming in for tomorrow,
believe our previous forecast may have been too cool for
temperatures. Frontal boundary and cooler airmass behind is showing
signs of slowing as it enters north central Kansas during the mid to
late afternoon. Southerly winds ahead of it increase shortly after
sunrise between 15 and 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph possible. In
addition, stronger mixing aloft between the NAM, GFS, and WRF
ensembles is indicative of h85 temps around 15 to 18C reaching the
sfc. MOS guidance and blended models are pretty consistent in the
compressional warming ahead the boundary, resulting in low to middle
70s for highs. This would be near or at the record. Please see
climate information section below. The combination of the strong,
shifting winds and lower RH values will also create very high fire
danger conditions in the afternoon. Please see fire weather
discussion for additional details.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 145 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

The weekend and much of next week will feature quiet, dry, and
warm weather with large scale upper level ridging dominating the
weather pattern from Friday into Monday. A sharp shortwave trough
will push eastward early in the week and will drag a surface
boundary through on Monday night into Tuesday. Ample mixing and a
tight pressure gradient will result in a blustery day on Monday
and raised winds above the blended guidance to account for this
scenario. GFS soundings show winds at the top of the mixed layer
pushing 40 to 50 kts, so wind advisory conditions are certainly
not out of the question. This mixing will tap into a +17 to +20 C
H850 warm nose, boosting temps to near record or record highs.
Pushed highs to the warm end of the model blend spectrum as a
result. Increasing theta-e advection and lift along the boundary
may spawn some light precip on the backside of the system late
Tuesday into Wednesday in SE Kansas, but this looks to be the
only chance of precip in the next seven days.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1124 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

VFR prevails as weak sfc troughing builds southward overnight,
increasing high clouds aft 00Z. Sustained south winds may approach
10 kts near the end of the forecast period.


Issued at 145 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

Strong south winds initiate shortly after sunrise, particularly
strongest along and south of Interstate 70 at 15 to 20 mph with
gusts near 30 mph. With the exception of the NAM, guidance is fairly
consistent with the wind shift bisecting northeast Kansas from
southwest to northeast by mid to late afternoon. Winds may briefly
weaken along the boundary, otherwise they increase from the north at
15 to 20 mph in north central Kansas before weakening around sunset.
Minimum RH values lower to around 30 percent given the current
dewpoints and temperatures forecast, translating to very high fire
danger conditions across much of northeast Kansas.


Issued at 145 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

Record Highs on Friday

Topeka: 76 degrees set back in 1990 (Forecast: 76)
Concordia: 73 degrees set back in 1990 and 2011 (Forecast: 73)


Record Highs on Monday

Topeka: 71 degrees set back in 1998 (Forecast: 70)
Concordia: 69 degrees set back in 1933 (Forecast: 70)




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