927
FXUS63 KTOP 240543
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1243 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop in north central
KS late this afternoon and move eastward this evening and overnight.

- Storms may be capable of producing damaging wind gusts and hail up
to quarter-size, although heavy rainfall looks to be the primary
threat.

- Additional thunderstorms could redevelop (20-50%) Tuesday
afternoon with a few producing damaging winds or hail.

- Warm weather continues through the week with highs in the 90s
  before a slight cool-down next Monday. Periodic storm chances
  occur in the meantime as well.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

The synoptic pattern has evolved slowly over the last 12 hours. An
upper ridge dominates the eastern US, while the northern stream
trough has advanced into central Canada and the southern stream
trough extends from CA into ID and MT. As of 19Z, sfc cold front now
extends from southeastern MN back through IA, NE, and central KS.
Per SPC mesoanalysis, MLCAPE has increased to 2000-2500 J/kg ahead
of the boundary with only around 25 kts of effective bulk shear. The
atmosphere has plenty of moisture with up to 2" of precipitable
water.

As the atmosphere continues to destabilize closer to the front with
minimal CIN, that should combine with convergence along the boundary
to develop thunderstorms in north central KS later this afternoon.
The main limiting factor for severe weather is the shear, as the
main upper/mid-level jet and vorticity lobe are displaced well north
of us into the Upper Midwest and southern Canada. This keeps weaker
flow aloft here with up to 25-30 kts of effective shear at best, and
mainly in far northwestern counties. Wouldn`t expect many storms to
become well-organized, but if any stronger updrafts can develop,
they could produce hail up to quarter size or damaging winds to 60-
65mph. DCAPE of 800-1000 J/kg would support the wind threat.

What looks to be the bigger issue, especially as we head into this
evening and overnight, is the potential for locally heavy rainfall
and flooding. The mid/upper-level flow is parallel to the front,
which may allow storms to train over the same areas, and the nose of
the LLJ pushes up into central KS late this evening, which may keep
storms going late into the night. As mentioned earlier, Pwat is
already ~2" in parts of the area and could increase further to 2.5".
The 12Z HREF shows 40-60% probabilities for rainfall exceeding 2"
across areas generally northwest of the KS Turnpike but not
including the Hwy 81 corridor. This ensemble run has hinted at
shifting the heavy rain axis a bit further east than the 00Z run,
although that may be driven more by the WRF-based members and NAM
Nest, whereas the HRRR hasn`t caught onto that idea yet. A
widespread 1-3" of rain can be expected, though some localized areas
could receive up to 5" if they experience heavy rainfall rates
and/or training storms. Those higher-end amounts could result in
some flash flooding and river flooding, though it should remain
fairly isolated. Lesser amounts are expected southeast of the KS
Turnpike, so fortunately those areas that have had flooding in
recent weeks have less of a risk this round.

CAMs show the bulk of the rain moving out late Tuesday morning,
though some scattered activity may linger, particularly in the east.
The synoptic front looks washed out by the afternoon, but may be a
focal point for storms to redevelop before the boundary moves north
as a warm front. There could also be a residual boundary left over
from overnight, so confidence is lower on location as well as
intensity of storms if there isn`t enough clearing. But will need to
monitor for a few storms to produce marginally severe wind or hail.

Wednesday looks dry before another perturbation rounds the periphery
of the upper ridge on Thursday, which could bring another round of
showers and storms Thursday night into Friday. The ridge looks to
dampen later this week with zonal flow aloft. The next and more
meaningful front looks to move in Sunday night into Monday, which
could bring more rain as well as more seasonal temperatures in the
80s after being in the 90s all of this week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

Scattered rain showers will continue through the night. MHK may
see a few thunderstorm around the terminal through 12Z. During
the afternoon hours of Tuesday there may be isolated showers
and storms developing around the terminals. Ceilings will remain
above 3500 feet.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Picha
AVIATION...Gargan