Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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398
FXUS63 KDLH 010520
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1220 AM CDT WED JUN 1 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Wed Jun 1 2016

Updated for the new 06Z Aviation Discussion below.



UPDATE Issued at 637 PM CDT Tue May 31 2016

Moderate to heavy rain continued to fall over much of northwest
Wisconsin early this evening. Radar and observations reveal the
heaviest rain, from 2 to 4 inches, from south central Sawyer
county northeast toward west central Iron county. Calls to
spotters and law enforcement reveal only minor flooding at this
time. Area radars shows the overall intensity of the rain has
diminished since late afternoon, but heavy rain will remain
possible for the next few hours. The heaviest rain will gradually
shift east with the 925mb axis of higher theta-e and convergence.
Additional advisories or even warnings for the heavy rainfall may
be needed yet this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Tue May 31 2016

At 300pm, the vertically stacked low was centered in north
central North Dakota...with the dry slot positioned across
western minnesota...wrapping into the eastern Dakotas. Clouds and
rain showers were found in the warm sector lifting over the
eastern half of the forecast area.

The dry slot will migrate over the Minnesota zones this
evening...bringing a break to the precipitation. A few showers or
thunderstorms will be possible through the evening along the
leading edge of the dry slot in a region of surface convergence.
however, latest high resolution guidance suggests any convection
is isolated and short lived. Locations in Northern Wis can expect
the showers and thunderstorms to persists through evening with
periods of heavy rain and possible small hail. The severe risk
looks minimal at this time as clouds limited heating today.

The slow moving area of low pressure will reach NW minnesota
around daybreak...tracking into Ontario Wednesday. The day will
start dry for most locations...with Wrap around clouds and rain
showers spreading south and east across the western lake superior
region through the afternoon. These showers will be light with
minimal QPF. winds will also be gusty out of the southwest to west
as much cooler mid level air with 850hPa temps of only a few
degrees above zero C pushes into the region.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Tue May 31 2016

The northern stream upper level shortwave and closed low will
continue to move slowly along the international border Wednesday
Night. Some lingering showers are possible Wednesday night and
into early Thursday, mainly across the northern portions of the
CWA. A flat westerly flow will establish itself behind the
departing system, with generally dry and cool conditions expected
for Thursday and Thursday night. The weather will then make a
dramatic change for the end of the work week and into the upcoming
weekend. The flat northerly flow will amplify considerably on
Friday night, as an upper level shortwave digs into minnesota and
the western Lake Superior region on Friday night and Saturday. The
system will eventually close off and remain over the Lake Superior
region throughout the weekend. The best chance of showers and a
few thunderstorms will be Friday and Friday night. The models are
in good agreement concerning this system and we have generally
high confidence in this solution. Cooler air will pull southward
out of Canada behind this system, with cool northerly flow
persisting for the end of the weekend. A warm up will then take
place early in the upcoming work week. Highs throughout the period
will generally be in the 60s and 70s. Lows will be in the 40s and
50s. The coolest night looks to be Thursday night, where some 30s
will be possible.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Wed Jun 1 2016

An upper level low over northeast North Dakota will move east
northeast across northern Minnesota into northwest Ontario tonight
into Wednesday. Showers will remain possible across the Northland,
mainly over far eastern and far western areas. The showers will
increase on Wednesday most areas as the low moves further east.
Conditions will range from LIFR to MVFR, with the lowest ceilings
and visibilities occurring at KDLH. The wind will gradually shift
to south to southwest on Wednesday which will help raise ceilings
and visibilities to MVFR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  43  61  46  64 /  30  30  20  10
INL  47  58  48  62 /  40  70  40  10
BRD  49  62  47  71 /  10  30  20   0
HYR  55  68  47  68 /  70  20  20  10
ASX  46  67  48  66 /  90  10  20  10

&&

.DLH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT early this morning for
     LSZ140>147.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Grochocinski
SHORT TERM...Graning
AVIATION...Melde/Grochocinski



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