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000
FXUS63 KDLH 140150
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
850 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

.UPDATE...MADE MINOR CHANGE TO TEMPS AND CLOUD COVER FOR OVERNIGHT
TIME PERIOD. SOME CLOUDS ARE DRIFTING FROM THE WEST FROM WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA.  REST OF FCST UNCHANGED.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 656 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013/

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE DOMINATE AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY 5-10 MPH
THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT BRD...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
DULUTH CWA TONIGHT WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS. SOME
INCREASE IN MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT AS
CIRRUS BLOW OFF FROM ANTICIPATED CONVECTION TO OUR WEST IS
ADVECTED EASTWARD..MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST SECTIONS. RATHER
SHORT NIGHT THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL LIMIT COOLING POTENTIAL
SOMEWHAT..BUT PARTS OF THE ARROWHEAD AND NW WISCONSIN MAY DROP
INTO THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS IN
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION REGIME ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN SOME FORM
FRIDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL/MOISTURE GRADIENT SLOWLY
TRANSLATES TO THE EAST IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING RIDGE AXIS. WE
DID NOT DEVIATE MUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST..BUT DID NUDGE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTORMS UPWARD JUST A BIT LATER FRIDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WEST..FOCUSED ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
DEVELOPING MUCAPE GRADIENT. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTORMS IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT MORNING..BEYOND THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SASKATCHEWAN WILL PUSH A
COLD FRONT FRONT THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST ON FRIDAY NIGHT
BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION INTO
SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST OVER SOUTHERN
MANITOBA BY SUNDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES INTO ONTARIO...ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THE NORTHLAND. AS THE LOW MOVES ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER ON MONDAY...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE AREA INTO LATE MONDAY. A SHORTWAVE WILL
ENTER THE REGION ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE NEXT SHOT OF
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY FOR THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH
DRY WEATHER BEFORE THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TO MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE AROUND NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

AVIATION...18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. LIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TOWARDS SUNSET. WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN UP TO 10 KNOTS FROM THE
SOUTHEAST LATE FRIDAY MORNING WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AHEAD OF
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM.

&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  48  68  52  77 /   0  20  60  30
INL  50  73  52  78 /   0  20  60  20
BRD  53  74  61  79 /  10  50  60  10
HYR  44  76  57  78 /   0  10  70  40
ASX  41  70  52  74 /   0  10  60  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...STEWART