Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 080836
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
236 AM CST Fri Dec 8 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 219 AM CST Fri Dec 8 2017

The short term period presents two main forecast challenges. An
upper wave will drop out of NE Manitoba mid-day today and bring a
quick burst of light snow to areas east of the Red River,
primarily over northwest and west central Minnesota. A cold front
will shift surface winds to the northwest and cold advection
behind the wave will create some higher winds in the 18Z to 03Z
timeframe.

Models continue to be in good agreement with an area of H300-H500
Q-vector convergence forcing sinking into northeast zones from MB
in the 15Z to 18Z timeframe with peak magnitudes clipping far
eastern zones this afternoon. The strongest Q-vector convergence
will be over the Arrowhead. Wave is well down into southeast MN
by 03Z. Time lagged CONS short presents best solution for POPs
this afternoon, with likely POPs entering Baudette region by 17Z
and impacting primarily Lake of the Woods and Beltrami
counties...with scattered snow showers possible as far west as the
Red River. Still looking at an inch or two possible over the far
northeastern zones. The strongest surface winds will be over
northeast ND by 21Z but not impact areas with fresh snow until
the early evening...when snow should be tapering off. Therefore
not looking for significant impacts although portions of northwest
MN could see some drifting snow during the afternoon commute. Any
restrictions to visibility should be widely isolated. Colder
overnight lows in the low teens to around ten in eastern North
Dakota...and approaching zero in the far east...with early
Saturday morning apparent temps approaching 10 below in
Baudette/Fosston/Bemidji areas.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 219 AM CST Fri Dec 8 2017

Northerly flow aloft continues as the pattern undergoes very little
change. Expect an upper wave propagating through the region every
few days, with light snow and stronger winds (blowing snow) the main
impacts. The strongest signal for higher impact weather is Sunday
afternoon/overnight. ECMWF is further west with the track of this
system than other guidance, and there is large spread in ensemble
guidance, so predictability still low. With that said, there are
some hints for banding potential (heavier snow) and stronger winds,
so potential for a higher impact event.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1132 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2017

Ceilings very hard to pick out late this evening, but there are
lower ceilings that are impacting KBJI...and these may back up
into KTVF. Will just have to monitor them overnight. Outside of
these, it should remain VFR at the other TAF sites. Winds should
hold steady into mid Friday morning around 10 knots or so. The
next impulse will drop southward out of Canada by late morning.
This looks to potentially impact all the TAF sites but KDVL. Do
not think this system will bring any snow to KDVL, and despite
winds picking up during the afternoon and early evening, there is
not enough snow on the ground at KDVL to cause any BLSN there.
Otherwise with the increasing winds during the afternoon and
evening, there could be some reduction to vsbys at all the other
TAF sites. However, the greatest impact/lowest vsbys may be at
KTVF. The snow should move out of the area by mid to late Fri
evening.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Speicher
LONG TERM...TG
AVIATION...Godon



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