Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 020539
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1139 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 942 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

TWEEKED TEMPS A BIT. AS EXPECTED AREAS THAT PIT OUT AND WINDS GO
CALM ARE DROPPING QUICKLY...SUCH AS FOSSTON. BUT THAT IS THE
EXCEPTION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 702 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

FCST ON TRACK. STRATO CU ASSOC WITH 500 MB TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST
THRU CNTRL MN WITH CLEARING IN ERN ND/NW MN. EXPECT CONTINUED
CLEARING OR DISSIPATING CLOUDS TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE STRONG COLD FRONT MON
NIGHT/TUE...POTENTIAL BLOWING SNOW ISSUES AND ACCUMULATING SNOW
POTENTIAL IN THE SOUTH. MODEL ARE STILL IN A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT
WITH THE NAM THE FURTHEST NORTH WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW. FOR NOW
WILL SIDE WITH THE GFS THAT IS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH WITH SNOW SINCE
THE ARCTIC FRONT SHOULD DRY THINGS OUT QUICK. TIMING IS EVERYTHING
WITH SYSTEM THOUGH...SO STAY TUNED.

FOR TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE A FEW LINGERING FLURRIES IN THE EAST.
OTHERWISE EXPECT A DRY NIGHT WITH DECREASING CLOUDS. TEMPS SHOULD
FALL AND BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHTS LOWS.

ON MONDAY...STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP WITH ABOUT 35KT
TO MIX FROM 900MB BY 21Z. WE COULD BE CLOSE TO A WIND ADVISORY
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH
POSSIBLE. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME LIGHT SNOW MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN VALLEY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS SHOULD WARM INTO THE
20S FOR ALL AREAS.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT...LIGHT SNOW CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE WITH
MOISTURE GETTING FOCUSED ALONG THE COLD FRONT BY MORNING. WINDS
SHOULD INCREASE IN THE NW WITH THE FRONT GETTING CLOSE TO THE
SOUTHERN FA LATE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

ON TUESDAY...STRONG WINDS WILL BE ONGOING BEHIND THE ARCTIC COLD
FRONT. THIS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AT LEAST SOME BLOWING SNOW WHERE
THERE IS ACCUMULATING SNOW. THERE COULD ALSO BE A BAND OF LIGHT
SNOW ALONG THE FRONT...SO WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF SOME BLOWING
SNOW ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY. WINDS SHOULD BE SUSTAINED
AROUND 30 MPH IN THE WEST WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH. TEMPS WILL LIKELY
FALL FOR MOST AREAS WITH STRONG CAA. THERE WILL LIKELY BE AN AREA
IN THE FAR SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY WHERE VISIBILITIES MAY BE
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED WHERE SNOW ACCUMULATES UP TO 2 INCHES OR
PERHAPS A BIT MORE...AND WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS THREAT. WE
WILL ISSUE AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT FOR TUE.

FOR TUE NIGHT/WED...IT WILL BE VERY COLD WITH DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS FROM 25 TO 40 BELOW TUE NIGHT INTO WED. TEMPS SHOULD
STRUGGLE TO WARM INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE 0 ON WED GIVEN EARLY
MARCH SUNSHINE...AND IT WILL BE DRY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE UPPER LEVEL TROF BEGINS TO LIFT E ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REBOUNDING...INCREASING
THICKNESS VALUES AND SW FLOW AT THE SFC BEHIND THE RIDGE...TEMPS
WILL BEGIN TO RISE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS. OTHERWISE...A WEAK SFC
TROF IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY...WITH ONLY SLIGHT
COOLING AND LITTLE PCPN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

LITTLE CHANGE FROM 00Z TAFS. SMALL AREA OF VFR STRATOCU CLOUDS TVF
AREA MOVING SOUTHEAST. OTHERWISE CLEAR AND GENERALLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT THRU MONDAY LATE MORNING. INCREASE IN SOME HIGH CLOUDS
MONDAY LATE MORNING-AFTERNOON...WITH INCREASING MID CLOUDS FROM
THE SOUTH INTO ERN ND/NW MN MONDAY MID AFTN AND EVENING. WINDS
WILL TURN SOUTH LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MID MORNING THEN INCREASE
QUICKLY MIDDAY INTO THE AFTN WITH STRONGEST WINDS IN THE RED RIVER
VALLEY IMPACTING GFK/FAR AIRPORTS WITH SOUTH WINDS 20-30 KTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/DK
AVIATION...RIDDLE





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