Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 150252

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
952 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Issued at 951 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Just some minor updates to hourly PoPs as the area of rainfall
across the southeastern forecast area continues to slowly head
eastward. Timing might be a tad bit slower than previously thought
but the main activity should still be out of the area by midnight
or shortly after.

Additionally, temperatures dropped off pretty quickly across the
very far northwest forecast area where clouds cleared the
earliest. Therefore, went ahead and dropped lows a few degrees
for this area.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 349 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

The main forecast impact for the short term is the light rain
moving through the area now. This will mainly remain south of a
line from Valley City to Bemidji tonight. Total rainfall amounts
in this area will probably be somewhat variable, from a quarter to
a half inch in some spots, to as little as a tenth or less in
others. It appears the immediate Grand Forks area will not see any
of this. The rain is expected to end over west central Minnesota
by late evening, with clearing skies from west to east. This could
lead to some patchy fog, but not confident enough to mention any
at this point. More clouds move in on Sunday with temperatures a
few degrees warmer.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 349 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

The majority of this upcoming work week can be summed up in three
words: dry and warm. While Monday will start seasonably cool with
low temperatures in the lower to mid 30s, temperatures will quickly
climb into the 60s aided by mid-level ridging, sunshine and breezy
southwesterly winds ahead of a weak, dry cold front/surface trough.
Tuesday will be slightly warmer as thickness continue to rise lee of
a building upper level ridge, although surface winds will be more
relaxed than Monday`s winds. The nose of an upper level jet will
break the ridging aloft Wednesday with another weak surface trough
passing through the region from the west. This will allow for
temperatures to temporarily cease its climb with high temperatures
expected to remain in the 60s and surfaces winds to shift more
westerly. However, the upper level jet retreats into Canada while
amplifying over western two thirds of the United States. Continued
ridging aloft and rising thicknesses over the area will continue the
temperature climb Thursday and Friday with Friday`s temperatures
possibly reaching 10-15 degrees above normal. The amplified ridge
aloft and building trough over the Pacific west will allow the
return of moisture back into the area. This comes ahead of a cold
front and next foreseeable precipitation chances around the Friday-
Saturday timeframe.

Another point to note will be the potential for elevated fire risk
as minimum relative humidities stay around the 30-40% range Monday
through Thursday combined with above normal temperatures and some
afternoons bringing breezy winds.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 700 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

VFR ceilings to continue through the period. Area of rainfall
currently across far southeastern ND and into west central MN
will continue to push east/northeast and should clear KFAR within
an hour or two of issuance time and KBJI shortly after that. KBJI
might see a brief period of MVFR visibilities in any heavier
pockets but should be short lived. Northerly winds will gradually
turn more westerly towards morning and increase a bit throughout
the day Sunday.




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