Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 140855
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
255 AM CST Tue Feb 14 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)

Issued at 255 AM CST Tue Feb 14 2017

Temperatures and cloud trends continue to be the main concerns with
no precipitation expected throughout the short term.

Today looks to be the coolest day of the week as the area remains
under northwest flow aloft as an upper low shifts off to the east
and upper ridging begins building into the western CONUS. Although
relatively cooler compared to the last few days, readings in the 20s
(north) and 30s (south) will still be above average. Breezy
northwest winds will persist through at least early afternoon as the
pressure gradient remains fairly tight across the area between
systems but should begin to relax by this evening. Although winds
don`t look to be quite as breezy as they did with the weak cold
front Monday, did include a brief mention of some patchy blowing
snow for the northern third of the Red River Valley and points
westward where snow remains and some blowing/melting/refreezing on
roadways created some slick spots yesterday in these areas.

Northwest flow aloft will persist through Wednesday, but increasing
850/925 mb temperatures pushing in to the western Dakotas will
signal the beginning of our next warming trend. By Thursday, the
upper ridge is progged to center itself across the central CONUS
with 850/925 mb temperatures soaring well above 0C (possibly even
into the teens) translating to surface temperatures likely 20+
degrees above normal mid-February values of low 20s for highs and
single digits for lows.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)

Issued at 255 AM CST Tue Feb 14 2017

Friday still looking quite mild as a trough moves through
accompanied by a wind shift to the west in the afternoon. Expect
highs in the low 50s in the snow free areas of the southern RRV and
west central MN with mid 30s to mid 40s elsewhere. Coldest spot
Langdon which has deepest snow cover. No precipitation expected
with trough just some mid and high level clouds.

Mild Saturday and Sunday as well as high pressure moves in. Maybe
a degree or two cooler.

00z ECMWF/GFS/GEM all indicate a pretty strong upper level
system/sfc low moving north thru central ND Monday into Monday
night. GFS a tad weaker than ECMWF/GEM. Although would have mild
air over eastern ND and NW/WC MN so that majority of precipitation
will be rain. Using model blend sfc temps still kept in some -sn
or ra/sn idea into DVL basin and parts of far NW MN but have a
feeling sfc temps at night are too cold. ECMWF brings up 50 dew
pts to Fargo whereas GFS has low 40s. This system will put a
serious dent into the snow in areas that have it. Will need to
watch this system`s precip amounts as GEM has over 1 inch qpf in
JMS/DVL region. GFS and blended model solns are much lower.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)

Issued at 1130 PM CST Mon Feb 13 2017

VFR conditions as mostly cirrus moves through. Some lower but
still VFR clouds have moved down from Canada into northwestern MN,
but have stayed north and east of KTVF and KBJI. All sites should
remain VFR throughout the period. Winds overnight will remain out
of the northwest at around 15 kts, then pick up by mid to late
morning Tuesday to gusting up around 25 kts. Winds should settle
back down after sunset tomorrow.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lee
LONG TERM...Riddle
AVIATION...JR



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