Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 131850
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
250 PM EDT Wed Sep 13 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 458 AM EDT WED SEP 13 2017

WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated zonal flow across srn Canada
and far nrn CONUS. A weak shortwave trough into se North Dakota
supported a diminishing area of shra/tsra. At the surface, srly flow
was increasing through the Upper MS between high pressure over the
central Great Lakes and a trough/front over the ern Dakotas.
Otherwise, IR imagery showed clear skies over the cwa. Although some
fog had developed near Lake Michigan, the fog was much less
extensive compared to last night.

Today, plenty of sunshine with mixing to 900-850 mb should result
in max temps into the lower to mid 80s across the inland west
half and the upper 70s over the east. Dewpoints into the lower 60s
west will support MLCAPE values into the 1000-1500 J/Kg range.
However, the moisture/heating does not look strong enough to
overcome capping/inhibition. Even where the higher moisture is
likely over the far west and lake breeze boundaries may be present
the potential for shra/tsra was marginal, per short range high
res models.

Tonight, Although light sourtherly winds will persist, with greater
low level moisture over the area, some fog is likely to develop
inland and again along Lake Michigan. Min temps will also remain
above normal with lower 50s inland and lower 60s where downslope
flow prevails near Lake Superior. With the frontal boundary from
nrn MN into Lake Superior, shra/tsra may develop with any weak
shortwave along area of 900-700 mb fgen and move into wrn Lake
Superior late, but should remain north and west of the Keweenaw.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 250 PM EDT WED SEP 13 2017

The extended periods continue to feature a broad ridge across the
eastern CONUS, only making some minor fluctuations over the next
several days. Thur will feature a weak series of low pressure
systems traversing the Missouri Valley, and eventually lifting north
across the Upper Peninsula. This will likely produce a few chances
for showers and perhaps isolated thunderstorms. The focus of precip
does appear to be central/western U.P.

In addition to the increased chances for showers and isolated
thunder, temperatures will continue to remain mild. The Southwest
flow will usher in very warm air aloft and should help push
afternoon highs into the upper 70s to perhaps lower 80s in a few
spots of central/western U.P. With a better chance of increased
cloud cover and precip for the second half of the weekend into early
next week, temps may relax marginally to seasonal conditions in the
60s. But confidence remains low given the possible lingering ridge
aloft and trough developing across the western CONUS.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 139 PM EDT WED SEP 13 2017

VFR conditions and winds mostly under 10 knots will continue under
surface ridging, although shallow fog should develop at KSAW late
tonight into Thursday morning. Additionally, there is a small chance
that shallow fog could develop at KCMX late tonight with light SE
upslope winds, though high uncertainty precludes inclusion in this
forecast.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 458 AM EDT WED SEP 13 2017

A lack of significant weather systems in the vicinity of the Upper
Lakes will keep winds mostly below 20kt through much of the week.
Southerly winds to 25 knots are then expected ahead of a cold front
on Saturday, while westerly winds to 25 knots are expected behind
the front on Sunday.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...Beachler
AVIATION...Kluber
MARINE...JLB



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