Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 010724
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
324 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

ANOTHER QUIET WEATHER DAY WITH SOME CU AND CIRRUS. CAN NOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR TWO OVER THE E DUE TO LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARY CONVERGENCE...BUT CERTAINLY NOT PUTTING IT IN THE FORECAST.

HIGH CLOUDS STICK AROUND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE S AND
E...WHICH WILL KEEP LOW TEMPS FROM GETTING AS COLD. HAVE LOWS IN THE
LOW 30S NCENTRAL AND W AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S SCENTRAL AND E.
COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS BRUSH SRN MENOMINEE COUNTY TONIGHT...BUT
THINK THEY SHOULD STAY S SO LEFT THEM OUT OF THE FORECAST.

CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT THROUGH THE DAY SUN WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S TO AROUND 60 INLAND AND IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

MONDAY...A DECAYING MID-LEVEL RIDGE TRACKING SE ACROSS THE CWA ON
MONDAY WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT ALONG WITH
DIURNAL CUMULUS INLAND. SOME GUIDANCE IS INDICATING LIGHT PRECIP
INLAND ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES...BUT SHALLOW CLOUD DEPTHS
AND HIGH BASES SHOULD PREVENT PRECIP FORMATION.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A POTENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING
SSE ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO COMBINED WITH AN APPROACHING LEFT EXIT
OF AN UPPER JET WILL QUICKLY TRACK ACROSS THE CWA LATE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE MAIN PLAYER FOR PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE AN
ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT ARRIVING ON TUESDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
FAVOR A MID TO LATE AFTERNOON FROPA...ALLOWING FOR SOME DIURNAL
HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WITH THIS DIURNAL ASSISTANCE...SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO NUMEROUS WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT. LIMITED LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND HIGH LCL HEIGHTS WILL LIMIT ANY DECENT THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...BUT A FEW RUMBLES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY HAS ALSO HAD THE FOCUS OF FIRE WX CONCERNS FOR SEVERAL DAYS
NOW. BY THEN...THE ENTIRE CWA WILL HAVE HAD A WEEK OF DRYING SINCE
THE WIDESPREAD RAIN EARLY LAST WEEK. DAYTIME HEATING SUPPORTS TEMPS
INTO THE 60S INLAND AND MIN RH VALUES AROUND 30 PERCENT.
ADDITIONALLY...WEST WINDS WILL GUST OVER 20MPH LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THESE FACTORS ALL SUPPORT INCREASED WILDFIRE
DANGER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST. HOWEVER...A COUPLE
FACTORS MAY LIMIT TEMPERATURES. THE FIRST WOULD BE AN EARLY ARRIVAL
OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS IN THE MORNING. THE SECOND IS AN EARLIER
FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL END FROM NW TO SE DURING THE EVENING. THEN...WRAP-
AROUND MOISTURE IN CYCLONIC FLOW BEHIND THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY LATE TUE
NIGHT THROUGH WED. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR UPSLOPE AREAS ALONG
THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE. THERMO PROFILES SUPPORT A POSSIBLE MIX WITH
SNOW FOR MAINLY THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE NORTH LATE WED NIGHT. PLENTY
OF LOW CLOUDS AND N TO NW WINDS FAVOR A CHILLY WEDNESDAY ACROSS
UPPER MI...WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY FAILING TO REACH 40 EAST ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MS
VALLEY WHILE THE MID-WEEK TROUGH MERGES WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM TO FORM DEEP TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPS...WITH POSSIBLY
SOME CLOUD COVER EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THE EASTERN TROUGH.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 127 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR WITH GENERALLY LIGHT NE WINDS THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

NE WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MAINLY THE WEST HALF OF
LAKE SUPERIOR INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FAR WEST DUE TO FUNNELING
EFFECTS FROM TERRAIN. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL THEN RESULT IN
DIMINISHING WINDS. WSW WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TO AS HIGH AS 20
KNOTS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NW. WINDS WILL BECOME N TO NW AT AROUND
20 KNOTS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...INCREASING TO UP TO 30 KTS OVER
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEHIND THIS
LOW.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...07
MARINE...TITUS


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