Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 131939

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
339 PM EDT Fri Oct 13 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 337 PM EDT FRI OCT 13 2017

No significantly impactful weather expected through Saturday.

A few light showers or drizzle is possible over the eastern half
this evening along and ahead of a cold front. Clearing skies behind
the front will allow for lows from the mid 20s interior W to the mid
40s along the shorelines.

Clouds will then be on the increase Sat ahead of a low pressure
system. Precip will move toward and possibly into the area through
00Z tomorrow evening. The GFS, CMCreg, and ECMWF show precip moving
in during the afternoon and covering much of Upper MI by late
evening. The NAM, NCEP WRFs, and other higher-res models keep all or
most of the area dry through late evening. Went with consensus
approach which resulted in chance PoPs moving in from the S in the
afternoon and evening.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 245 AM EDT FRI OCT 13 2017

500 mb ridge over the sern U.S. and a trough in the Rockies 12z Sat.
Trough moves into the upper Great Lakes 12z Sun and remains through
Sun night. Nam shows some 850-500 mb q-vector convergence 00z Sun
through 12z Sun with deeper moisture moving through the area. Pops
will be high as this moves through and have qpf amounts from 0.50
inch to 1 inch of rain expected with this system. Overall, did not
make too many changes to the going forecast.

In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb ridge across the
southwestern U.S. 12z Mon with a trough in the ern U.S. There is
also a shortwave over northern Alberta and northern Saskatchewan and
this heads east Mon night into Tue and pushes a cold front through
the area. This is followed by a shortwave ridge that moves into the
upper Great Lakes 12z Wed and ridging builds into the ern U.S. 12z
Thu. Troughing moves out into the plains and western U.S. 12z Fri.
Above normal temperatures will continue this forecast period.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 139 PM EDT FRI OCT 13 2017

Skies are clearing behind a passing front. VFR conditions are
expected behind the front, which has cleared KCMX and KIWD and will
clear KSAW in a couple of hours.

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 337 PM EDT FRI OCT 13 2017

A low pressure system moving S of the area is expected to bring NE-N
Gales to 35-40kts over the eastern half of Lake Superior late Sat
night and Sun morning. Before that, NE winds will increase starting
Sat morning, but won`t exceed 25kts until Sat night. Winds will turn
out of the NW while decreasing on Sun. Winds should be less than
25kts Sun night and Mon before increasing up to 30kts from the SW
Mon night and Tue morning. Another round of winds up to 30kts, this
time from the NW, is possible Wed night into Thu.

Upper Michigan...
Lake Superior...
  Gale Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday afternoon for

Lake Michigan...
  Gale Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday afternoon for



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