Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 130838 CCA
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
437 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT SAT APR 12 2014

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. NAM SHOWS SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVING
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE THE DEEPER MOISTURE
AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE DEPARTS TONIGHT AND THEN RETURNS AGAIN LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NAM ALSO SHOWS SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE
ON THE I290K-I305K SURFACES THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT...BEFORE THE LIFT
DEPARTS THE CWA.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION
TONIGHT...SO WILL SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP ALONG WITH SOME DRIZZLE AND A
FEW SPRINKLES OVERNIGHT. PUT FOG INTO THE FORECAST WITH A MOIST EAST
NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUING AND ALSO ADDED SOME DRIZZLE. DO NOT THINK
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL OCCUR TONIGHT EXCEPT ON WINDSHIELDS AND
ELEVATED SURFACES AS GROUND TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE WARM ENOUGH TO
KEEP ICE FROM FORMING...SO DID NOT PUT INTO THE FORECAST AND MOST
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING OVERNIGHT. NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES
LATE ON SUNDAY AND HAVE SOME CHANCE POPS LATE IN THE SOUTH. BEST
CHANCES FOR DRIZZLE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING WOULD BE IN UPSLOPE
AREAS. OTHERWISE...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING
FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 429 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2014

MOST OF THE IMPACTS FROM THE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES OCCUR JUST PRECEEDING THE LONG TERM. KEPT HIGHER LIKELY POPS
OVER EAST THROUGH 18Z ON MONDAY AS LAST PUSH OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND
LINGERING DEEP MOISTURE MAY GENERATE UP TO 0.10 INCH OF LIQUID PRECIP
IN THE FORM OF AROUND 1 INCH OF WET SNOW. AWAY FM THIS AREA OF
SNOW...HAVE JUST SOME SMALL CHANCES DUE TO UPSLOPE AND SOME MOISTURE
OFF THE GAPS IN WESTERN LK SUPERIOR. DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE WELL TO
THE EAST AND OVERALL WILL BE SEEING LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE OVER MUCH
OF CWA BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...SO PROBABLY LOOKING AT FLURRIES OR
VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.

UNSEASONABLY DEEP TROUGHING WILL SETTLE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. QUITE COOL...WITH H85 TEMPS DOWN TO -18C
ON TUESDAY IN THE AXIS OF THE TROUGHING. EVEN WITH GAPS OF OPEN
WATER OVER ESPECIALLY WEST HALF OF LK SUPERIOR...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
IN WAY OF LAKE EFFECT LATER MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS AIR IS DRY IN
THE LARGER SCALE. SOUNDINGS FM GFS INDICATE AN INVERTED-V
LOOK...WITH DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER UP TO THE THIN MOIST LAYER AROUND
H85. BECOMES SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH NIGHTTIME
COOLING...BUT EVEN THIS AFFECT SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS LARGER SCALE
LOW-LEVELS ARE DOMINATED BY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. MOST NOTEABLE WILL BE
THE COLD...WITH DAYTIME TEMPS ON MONDAY FALLING TO THE UPR TEENS OR
LOWER 20S BY LATE AFTN NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ON
TUESDAY STRUGGLING TO REACH 32 DEGREES...EVEN OVER SCNTRL. NORMAL
HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE IN THE UPPER 40S NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND INTO THE
LOWER 50S NEAR THE WISCONSIN BORDER. DESPITE INCREASING SUNSHINE BY
AFTERNOON...READINGS ON TUESDAY WILL END UP 20-25 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. COOL TEMPS FOR THE NIGHTS AS WELL. MAINLY TEENS EXPECTED
BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE AT
ANY INTERIOR LOCATION ON MONDAY NIGHT THAT CLEARS OUT BRIEFLY AND
ALSO OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR TUESDAY NIGHT.

LATER TUESDAY NIGHT BUT MORE SO INTO WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...GFS STILL SHOWING WIDESPREAD MODERATE QPF WHICH WOULD BE
IN THE FORM OF SNOW. GFS HAS SHOWN THIS OVER ITS LAST 5 RUNS BACK TO
00Z ON 12 APRIL. ECMWF RATHER INSISTENT INDICATING WIDESPREAD QPF
WILL BE MORE FROM DAKOTAS ACROSS MINNESOTA AND ACROSS FAR WESTERN
CWA TO LK SUPERIOR. GFS IDEA IS MORE OR LESS SUPPORTED BY LAST
COUPLE GEM-NH RUNS AND 12Z/12 APRIL RUN OF UKMET. DIVING IN MORE IT
APPEARS THAT ALTHOUGH THE GFS AND ECMWF IDEAS LOOK SIMILAR IN THE
LARGER SCALE /LEAD SHORTWAVE INITIALIZING SFC LOW OVER NORTHERN
PLAINS WHILE STRONGER/LARGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA/ THEY DIFFER IN HOW MUCH PHASING OCCURS BTWN THE TWO
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. GFS IS SLOWER TO PHASE THUS BRINGS SFC LOW
FARTHER EAST INITIALLY WHILE THE ECMWF PHASES QUICKER AND LIFTS THE
LOW MORE NORTHEAST OVER WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN. LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL
EMERGE OUT OF STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY SHOWING UP WELL ON
WV LOOP OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. A CONSENSUS OF PRIMARY MODELS
INDICATES HIGH CHANCES OVER CWA...BEGINNING VERY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
OVER THE FAR WEST...SPREADING ACROSS ALL CWA ON WEDNESDAY...AND
LINGERING INTO THURSDAY MORNING MAINLY EASTERN CWA. PTYPE MAINLY
SNOW...THOUGH ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL WARMING OCCURS OVER SCNTRL BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO RESULT IN MIX OF RAIN/SNOW. MODERATE SNOW
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST CWA PER BLEND OF
LATEST GFS/ECMWF/GEM-NH. MIXING RATIOS 2.5-3 G/KG INDICATE
MODERATE SNOW AMOUNTS AS WELL WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 00Z RUN
OF ECMWF HAS TRENDED CLOSER TO GFS/GEM-NH IDEAS. WILL LEAVE MENTION
OF THIS SYSTEM OUT OF HWOMQT NOW THOUGH SINCE AS THIS IS THE FIRST
ECMWF RUN TO SHOW SIMILAR SOLUTION TO GFS WITH THIS SYSTEM.

UNCERTAINTY ONLY INCREASES BY FRIDAY AS RECENT RUNS OF GFS BRING
ANOTHER  SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WRAPPED UP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH
TOWARD 1 INCH OF QPF ACROSS UPPER LAKES. ECMWF NOT IN AGREEMENT AT
ALL WHILE THE GEM-NH SHOWS SOME IDEA THERE COULD BE SOME PRECIP...
JUST NOT AS STRONG AS GFS. CONSENSUS...WHICH IS WEIGHTED TOWARD GFS
INPUT... GIVES ANOTHER ROUND OF CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY. MANUALLY
TWEAKED THOSE DOWN SLIGHTLY...BUT LEFT ALONE OTHERWISE. CRITICAL
THICKNESSES AND FORECASTED TEMPS INDICATE RAIN OR SNOW IS POSSIBLE.
TEMPS FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDANT ON WHETHER
ANY SYSTEM IS IN THE VCNTY. IF SO...TEMPS WILL PROBABLY STAY IN THE
30S WITH THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. IF NOT...INLAND AREAS AWAY FM
THE LAKES COULD REACH LOWER 50S ONE OR BOTH OF THESE DAYS AS H85
TEMPS ARE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 0C.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 125 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2014

WITH AN UPSLOPE E WIND WITHIN SHALLOW COOL AIRMASS N OF STNRY FNT IN
THE LOWER GREAT LKS...EXPECT VLIFR/BLO LANDING MINS TO PERSIST AT
CMX THRU SUNRISE. CONDITIONS AT SAW AND IWD SHOULD DETERIORATE TO
LIFR/IFR RESPECTIVLEY WITH THE SLOW ARRIVAL OF MORE LLVL MSTR IN THE
PRESENCE OF DIURNAL COOLING UNDER MID LVL DRYING AND LGT UPSLOPE
WIND COMPONENT AT SAW/WEAKENING DOWNSLOPE WIND AT IWD. EXPECT
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR WITH SOME DAYTIME HEATING ON SUN.
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A SFC LO THAT IS FCST TO MOVE FM THE
PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LKS TNGT AND THE LOCATION OF THE NW EDGE OF
THE ACCOMPANYING PCPN AREA...SOME SN/IFR CONDITIONS MAY RETURN TO
SAW THIS EVNG. BUT SINCE MOST OF THE MODELS FCST THE HEAVIER PCPN TO
REMAIN TO THE SE...WL FCST JUST MVFR CONDITIONS FOR NOW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 429 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2014

NORTH TO NORTHWEST GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS EXPECTED ON MONDAY
IN WAKE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC.
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS BY MONDAY NIGHT TO RESULT IN WINDS LESS
THAN 25 KNOTS BY THAT TIME. WINDS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO STAY MAINLY
BLO 20 KNOTS REST OF THE WEEK...BUT THIS DEPENDS ON WHETHER ONE OR
TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS IMPACT THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE TWO TIME
FRAMES OF INTEREST WOULD BE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN
ON FRIDAY. IF EITHER OF THESE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DO OCCUR...THEN
WINDS MAY END UP STRONGER THAN CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 429 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2014

RIVER HYDROGRAPHS INDICATE THAT ICE JAMS AT RKLM4/FRDM4 AND EVEN AT
MSQM4 OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS HAVE BROKEN AND RIVERS HAVE LEVELED
OFF. AS OF THIS MORNING...NO IMPACTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED FROM THE ICE
JAMS. SEEMS THAT WITH THE COOLER TEMPS SEEN ON SATURDAY AND THE
COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK /HIGHS 20S TO
30S WITH LOWS WELL BLO FREEZING THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY/...WE
HAVE PROBABLY REACHED THE END OF THIS INITIAL PERIOD OF SNOWMELT/RUNOFF.
GIVEN ADDITIONAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION THIS WEEK AND WITH
4-9 INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT STILL OVER PARTS OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN...THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF WATER AVAILABLE FOR
THE SECOND PERIOD OF SNOW MELT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS. APPEARS
THAT WARMER TEMPS WHICH COULD START UP THE NEXT PERIOD OF SNOWMELT/RUNOFF
WILL RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLA
HYDROLOGY...JLA






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