Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 270530
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
130 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

WARM S-SW WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA AND A WEAK LAKE SUPERIOR LAKE
BREEZE MAKING IT A FEW MILES INLAND IS THE FOCUS FOR THE AFTERNOON
SHOWERS POPPING UP ACROSS MAINLY E UPPER MI THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE
CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS /WITH A FEW TS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/
UNTIL THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WHEN LIGHTER WINDS WILL DIMINISH
THE STRENGTH OF THE CONVERGENCE. WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR THUNDER
BAY RADAR FOR POP UP SHOWERS IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT...BETTER
MOISTURE...AND HIGHER SHEAR. UNSURE OF HOW MUCH WILL BE ABLE TO PUSH
INTO W AND NW LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH FCST MODELS SHOWING VERY LITTLE
WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT POPS THERE.

IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY MONDAY...WITH TEMPS TOPPING OUT 10-15F
WARMER THAN CLIMO NORMAL VALUES AS THE 500MB RIDGE CONTINUES TO
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION AND THE SFC RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE. WITH DEW
POINTS STILL IN THE 60S...CAN NOT RULE OUT FOG OVER LAKE SUPERIOR.
THE LAKE SUPERIOR LAKE BREEZE LOOKS TO HAVE AN EVEN MORE DIFFICULT
TIME SLIDING INLAND MONDAY...WITH S WINDS OF 5-10KTS FOR MOST. HIGHS
SHOULD TOP OUT WITHIN 4F OF WHAT WAS REALIZED TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 441 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

MODELS WERE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE SRN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY WILL RETROGRADE INTO THE SW CONUS
RESULTING IN WNW FLOW FROM WRN CANADA INTO THE NRN LAKES. THIS WILL
BRING A COOLING/DRYING TREND BY MIDWEEK THAT SHOULD LINGER INTO NEXT
WEEKEND WITH TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT...A MID LEVEL LOW OVER MONTANA IS EXPECTED
TO LIFT TO THE NE INTO NW ONTARIO BY WED MORNING DRAGGING A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE NRN LAKES TUE NIGHT. CONVECTION MON NIGHT INTO THE
UPPER MS VALLEY MAY END UP GENERATING AN MCV THAT WOULD SPREAD
CLOUDS AND DIMINISHING SHRA/TSRA INTO WEST UPPER MI TUE MORNING.
EVEN THOUGH THE CLOUDS MAY HOLD DOWN HEATING EARLY...EXPECT ENOUGH
SUNSHINE BY AFTERNOON TO PUSH TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 80S. THE WARMING
COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE UPPER 60S WILL PUSH MLCAPE VALUES
INTO THE 1K-2K J/KG RANGE. CAPPING OVER THE REGION SHOULD LIMIT
SHRA/TSRA POTENTIAL/COVERAGE WITH ANY WEAK SHRTWVS UNTIL HEIGHTS
LOWER AND THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUE NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER
SHEAR LAGS CLOSER TO OR BEHIND THE FRONT...THE STRONGER INSTABILITY
AND 20-30 KNOT 0-6KM SHEAR MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ISOLD STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS. PWAT VALUES CLIMBING AOA 1.75 INCHES COULD ALSO
SUPPORT SOME STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN.

WED...THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHRA/TSRA OVER THE ERN CWA IN THE
MORNING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT BREEZY WARM CONDITIONS AS THE DRY SLOW
MOVES IN WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AS 850 MB
TEMPS REMAIN NEAR 14C GUSTY WRLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ESPECIALLY OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE KEWEENAW WHERE GUSTS INTO THE 30-40 MPH
RANGE MAY BE POSSIBLE.

THU-SUN...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH THE MORE SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY REMAINING WELL TO THE SOUTH. WEAK SHORTWAVES IN
THE WNW FLOW COULD SUPPORT SOME SHRA/TSRA FROM THU NIGHT INTO THE
WEEKEND BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING/POSITION/STRENGTH OF THESE
FEATURES IS LOW ENOUGH FOR ONLY MODELS CONSENSUS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN IN CONTROL AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS
ACROSS UPPER MI. WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10KTS OR LESS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER LOWER MI WILL KEEP A RIDGE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG.
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER S SASKATCHEWAN TUESDAY MORNING WILL RACE
ACROSS MANITOBA TUESDAY NIGHT...AND ACROSS ONTARIO TO HUDSON BAY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOOK FOR THIS LOW TO REMAIN ACROSS HUDSON BAY
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN
THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH THE
RETURN OF STRONGER WINDS. S-SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH COULD GUST
NEAR 25KTS OVER MAINLY E LAKE SUPERIOR TUE NIGHT...WITH SW-W WINDS
NEARING 30KTS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROUGH.

THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT TO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES
THURSDAY...ALLOWING A WEAK RIDGE TO BUILD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY. IT WILL QUICKLY BE REPLACED BY A WEAK TROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...ROTATING AROUND THE HUDSON BAY LOW.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...07
MARINE...KF


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