Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 230744
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
244 AM EST Thu Nov 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 403 PM EST WED NOV 22 2017

WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a mid/upper level ridge from
the sw CONUS into BC/Alberta and a trough over the east resulting in
nw flow through the nrn Great Lakes. At the surface, sw flow was
increasing as a ridge moves east from the cntrl Great Lakes and a
trough edges through the plains. The broad WAA pattern supported
some light snow from ern MN into wrn WI with the lowest vsby only to
around 3sm. Radar returns into the wrn cwa remained aloft with only
mid clouds observed in the very dry airmass, per 12z KMPX/KGRB
soundings.

Tonight, Although the stronger isentropic lift and greater moisture
slide mainly south of the cwa per radar/satellite trends, some light
snow may be possible over the far west early this evening. As the sw
winds over Lake Superior veer wrly overnight some lake enhanced snow
may also develop into the Keweenaw. However, instability will be
limited with 850 mb temps only to around -8C.

Thursday, winds will veer enough to bring any light LES into the far
ne cwa east of Munising. Otherwise, a sfc ridg building into the
area will bring some clearing with some sunshine especially over the
south. This will help push temps into the mid to upper 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 244 AM EST THU NOV 23 2017

Nam shows a shortwave in the northern plains 12z Fri that will move
through the area Fri night. Nam brings in some deeper moisture and
850-500 mb q-vector convergence across the area on Fri and both move
out Fri night. Did not make too many changes to the going forecast
overall.

In the extended, GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb ridge across the
Rockies with a trough off the west coast and another in New England
12z Sun. The ridge moves into the plains 12z Mon. GFS then shows a
trough moving into the upper Great Lakes 12z Tue with cold air while
the ECMWF is slower with the trough by keeping it in the Rockies.
The GFS continues to move things through with a brief cold spell on
Wed while the ECMWF continues to lag behind and waits until Thu to
bring in the colder air. Looks like the manual progs have followed
the GFS solution closely with a brief shot of cold air Tue into Wed.
Temperatures will be at or above normal for this forecast period.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1232 AM EST THU NOV 23 2017

An upper disturbance moving through the area will result in
-shsn/flurries mainly at KCMX as winds turn to an onshore westerly
direction at KCMX overnight. Cigs will lower to MVFR at KCMX under
light shsn before improving to VFR Thu afternoon. Otherwise expect
expect VFR conditions throughout the forecast period at KIWD and
KSAW. LLWS is expected to develop late Thu evening mainly at KIWD as
a low-level wind max noses in from the west.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 403 PM EST WED NOV 22 2017

SW winds up to 30 knots will veer to the west late tonight into
Thursday and then will back to the south on Friday. Another strong
low pressure system will then bring the potential for northwest
gales of 35 to 40 knots Friday night into Saturday.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
  Gale Watch from late tonight through Friday evening for LMZ248-
     250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Voss
MARINE...JLB



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