000
FXUS63 KMQT 210522
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
122 AM EDT Fri Jul 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 335 PM EDT THU JUL 20 2017

Generally quiet weather expected through the short-term portion of
the forecast as high pressure and dry air lingers across the U.P.
tonight through Friday. High temperatures are expected to warm into
the 80s for most of the area Friday. There may be a few showers and
thunderstorms that try to work into the area late Friday afternoon
as WAA increases across the area and a shortwave slides across WI.
The better forcing and instability associated with this wave/850mb
frontal boundary is expected to remain over WI, but it may be just
far enough north to brush the southern tier of counties. Overall
wouldn`t expect too much precipitation out of this quick moving
shortwave late Friday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 335 PM EDT THU JUL 20 2017

Friday ngt thru Sun: Somewhat active weekend for portions of the
Great Lakes region, with kicking things off Fri ngt as a frontal
boundary will be sagging south through Northern Wisconsin.
Operational guidance has bounced around as to the precise placement
and timing of the shortwave and upper level support, but it has
trended further south. Guidance is indicating a stronger shortwave
sliding south from the Canadian Rockies Sat morning and this appears
to continue moving southeast into the CONUS and help to energize the
downstream surface wave progged to be over Southern Wisconsin.
Guidance continues to prog sporadic showers with some marginal
instability within the atmosphere over the U.P. both Fri ngt into
Sun. But feel that the best chance for convection will likely trend
further south as well.

Mon thru Wed: As the shortwave over Lower Michigan continues to pull
southeast late Sun ngt, broad anti-cyclonic flow will filter into
the U.P. Mon and bring much drier weather back to the area.
Ensembles continue to demonstrate good agreement with the 500mb
ridge upstream helping to slow the departure of the surface ridge
over the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. Towards mid-week the surface
ridge drifts away from the U.P. with slowly increasing chances for
showers and thunderstorms for the final periods of the extended.

Temperatures for the weekend will cool back towards slightly sub-
seasonal conditions from the mid/upr 70s Sat into the mid/upr 60s
Sun. Then for the bulk of next week temps will remain in the low/mid
70s with overnight lows in the upr 40s to mid 50s.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 121 AM EDT FRI JUL 21 2017

Under a relatively dry air mass, VFR conditions will prevail thru
the fcst period at KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. Winds will also be light.
Shra/tstms will be tracking ese to the s of the area this evening,
but there may be some shra/tstms farther n in Upper MI. However,
confidence in any development is too low at this point to include
a mention in the fcst.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 335 PM EDT THU JUL 20 2017

Expect winds 15 kts or less late this week into Saturday. Next
chance for stronger winds from the north to northeast over 20 kts
will be on Sunday in the wake of a low pressure system crossing the
Upper Great Lakes. High pressure builds back over region by early
next week with winds mainly 15 kts or less.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...Beachler
AVIATION...Rolfson
MARINE...KEC