000
FXUS63 KMQT 071109
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
609 AM EST SAT DEC 7 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 608 AM EST SAT DEC 7 2013

NO BIG CHANGES TO ONGOING LES WARNING FOR NRN HOUGHTON AND LES
ADVISORIES FOR ONTONAGON...SRN HOUGHTON...KEWEENAW AND ALGER-LUCE
COUNTIES AS THEY THESE HEADLINES ARE STILL ON TRACK FOR TODAY INTO
TONIGHT.

THE BIGGEST CHANGE WILL BE TO INCLUDE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR MUCH
OF THE WESTERN INTERIOR OF THE CWA AS TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DIP
COLDER THAN PREVIOUSLY FCST AND THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A LIGHT
WIND TO CAUSE ADVISORY CHILLS OF 25 BELOW ZERO OR COLDER.

A WRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OF ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FLOOD THE CWA
TODAY AND TONIGHT...SUSTAINING LES BANDS IN THE ASSOCIATED WRLY
SNOWBELTS AS 850MB TEMPS WILL REMAIN -20C TO -22C. SNOW GROWTH
SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY FAVORABLE WITH LES BANDS AS DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE IS FIRMLY ESTABLISHED WITHIN UNSTABLE CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY LAYER
AND INTERSECTS BEST UPWARD MOTION. LOOK FOR DOMINANT LES FROM JUST
NORTH OF HOUGHTON TO GRAND MARAIS AND TWO HEART TO GRADUALLY PUSH
OFFSHORE OF THE ERN SHORELINE THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW-LVL WINDS BACK
MORE WSW NEAR THE SHORE. STILL EXPECT ADDITIONAL LES ACCUMS OF 3 TO
7 INCHES FOR ERN ALGER AND NRN LUCE. NORTHERN HOUGHTON COUNTY SHOULD
STILL SEE MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WITH DOMINANT BAND INTO THIS
EVENING BUT WINDS TONIGHT WILL BEGIN TO BACK WSW IN RESPONSE TO SFC
HIGH BUILDING INTO WI AND THE BACKING WINDS WILL PUSH DOMINANT BAND
ACROSS THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW AND EVENTUALLY OUT OVER OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR ON SUNDAY. LOOK FOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMS OF 5 TO 9 INCHES OVER
NRN HOUGHTON AND ANOTHER 3 TO 7 OVER KEWEENAW COUNTY INTO TONIGHT.
LEFT ADVISORY UP FOR NRN ONTONAGON AND SRN HOUGHTON BUT COULD SEE
THIS POSSIBLY BEING CANCELLED BY MIDDAY AS IT LOOKS LIKE ON IR
SATELLITE THAT BEST BANDS ARE MAINLY NORTH OF THE THESE COUNTIES
NOW.

THE COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL RESULT IN SINGLE DIGIT HIGH TEMPS WESTERN
INTERIOR TO GENERALLY LOW TEENS EAST.

LOWER MIN TEMPS TONIGHT BASED ON FAIRLY COLD READINGS UPSTREAM OVER
NW WI AND SRN MN. WENT ON THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE LEANING MORE ON
THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS MOS. LOOK FOR LOW TO MID TEENS BLO ZERO
ACROSS MUCH OF THE WRN INTERIOR RANGING TO AROUND ZERO OVER THE
INTERIOR EAST. WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH CAUSED WIND CHILL READINGS TO
DIP TO 25 BELOW OR COLDER SO POSTED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY TONIGHT
FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN INTERIOR CWA. POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT COULD CAUSE TEMPS TO LEVEL OFF A BIT OR RISE
SLIGHTLY TOWARD 12Z SUN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 458 AM EST SAT DEC 7 2013

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALONG WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL 500MB TROUGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
WHILE THE NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE UPPER
PENINSULA THROUGH 18Z/08. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO REMAIN WEST
SOUTHWESTERLY OVER THE AREA. THIS COUPLED WITH H850 TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN -18C AND -20C WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND LAKE SUPERIOR WITH
THE FAVORED WEST SOUTHWESTERLY WIND. ONLY A COUPLE OF INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION ARE EXPECTED. BEYOND THE 18Z/08 TIME PERIOD THE SURFACE
HIGH AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT FARTHER TO THE
NORTHEAST ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH 00Z/09. AT
THE SAME TIME...LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING OVER THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE
WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD UPPER MI. AT THE UPPER LEVELS A
500MB TROUGH AXIS WILL STRETCH SOUTHWARD FROM CENTRAL CANADA DOWN TO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

AT THIS TIME THE BEST MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO REMAIN TO THE SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE UPPER PENINSULA...WITH THE EDGE OF THE BETTER MOISTURE
APPROACHING THE WI...UPPER PENINSULA BORDER AS SHOWN BY ANALYZING
1000-500MB RH. THE BETTER DEEP LAYER QCONV IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE AREA AS WELL...OVER MUCH OF WI INTO NORTHERN IL AND IA.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR AREAS FAVORED BY SOUTHWEST
WINDS AS 850MB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND -15C TO -16C OVER
THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS...COUPLED WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND...WOULD KEEP THE BETTER CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF LAKE SUPERIOR AS WELL AS OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE UPPER PENINSULA...THUS INCREASE QPF TO ACCOUNT FOR LAKE
ENHANCEMENT...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. SUNDAY
NIGHT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD...REACHING EASTERN UPPER MI BETWEEN 06Z/09 AND 12Z/09.
AT THE SAME TIME THE UPPER LEVEL 500MB TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT
EASTWARD WITH THE TROUGH AXIS RUNNING FROM WESTERN MN SOUTHWARD INTO
THE PLAINS. AS THIS HAPPENS...MOISTURE AND BETTER FORCING WILL
SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER PENINSULA AS SHOWN BY ANALYZING
1000-850MB RH ALONG WITH DEEP LAYER QCONV. FORTUNATELY WITH THIS
SYSTEM TEMPERATURE PROFILES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW 0C THROUGH THE
DURATION OF THE EVENT KEEPING THE PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF ALL
SNOW. TOTAL SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER
THE WEST HALF WITH 3 TO 5 EXPECTED OVER THE EAST. MONDAY AFTERNOON
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO NEAR JAMES BAY TAKING WITH IT
ALL OF THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. WINDS WILL BECOME
WESTERLY BEHIND THE LOW WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM -22C TO
-20C AS THE UPPER LEVEL 500MB TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN ALLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO DEVELOP FOR
WESTERLY WIND FAVORED AREAS OF THE UPPER PENINSULA. ONE AREA THAT
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED WILL BE THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AS IT
APPEARS AS IF A HEAVIER BAND OF SNOW COULD DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON
INTO MONDAY EVENING. SOUNDINGS INDICATE SIGNIFICANT SNOW GROWTH WITH
A DEEPER...MOIST DGZ WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS BETWEEN 8KFT AND 10KFT.
HAVE INCREASED THE QPF OVER THAT AREA DURING THIS TIME FRAME AND IT
WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE INCREASED FURTHER AS THE FORECAST PERIOD
DRAWS CLOSER.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING
NORTHWARD FROM HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MID MISSOURI WILL PASS
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BETWEEN 00Z/10 AND 06Z/10. THIS
WILL BE AROUND THE SAME TIME THAT THE UPPER LEVEL 500MB TROUGH AXIS
SHIFTS ACROSS THE U.P. ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO COOL TO NEARLY -10F
ACROSS INTERIOR WEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA...DEPENDING LARGELY ON
CLOUD COVER. AT THE SAME TIME MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A
WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL SHIFT FROM NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TO
NORTHERN MN BY 06Z/10 AND INTO THE WESTERN U.P. BY 12Z/10. THIS WILL
TURN WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OVERNIGHT MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING ALLOWING FOR A REDUCTION IN LES
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE U.P. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST
NORTHEASTWARD INTO QUEBEC THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS
TO SHIFT TO THE WEST NORTHWEST WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES REMAINING
AROUND -22C ACROSS THE CWA. LES WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST NORTHWEST
FAVORED SNOW BELTS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD WITH OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS WELL BELOW ZERO OVER
THE INLAND WEST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD SO A CONSENSUS OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS WILL
BE USED. DID NOT INCREASE POPS FOR AN SPECIF WIND FAVORED SNOWBELTS
AS THE FINAL SOLUTION WILL HAVE A GREAT IMPACT ON THE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW AREAS. ONE THING TO NOTE IS THAT UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT...WITH THE MOST LIKELY AREAS BEING
FAVORED BY WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM EST SAT DEC 7 2013

AT CMX...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE AT CMX THROUGH THIS TAF
PERIOD. SNOWFALL ALONG WITH BLOWING SNOW WILL LIKELY CAUSE
VISIBILITY TO REMAIN AT LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS. CEILINGS SHOULD
REMAIN AT OR AROUND 1500FT THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST NORTHWEST.

AT SAW...WEST WINDS WILL NOT FAVOR MUCH LK EFFECT SNOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

AT IWD...WNW WINDS WILL BEGIN TO FAVOR SNOW AND MVFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON. WINDS BECOME SW AND SHOULD PUSH THE MVFR LAKE
CLOUDS NORTH OF THE SITE BY LATE SAT AFTERNOON FOR VFR
CONDITIONS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 458 AM EST SAT DEC 7 2013

AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DECREASES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...WIND SPEEDS
WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS ON SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 20KTS AS A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THE LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF
THE AREA ON MONDAY AS BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN...POSSIBLY
LEADING TO WEST WINDS GUSTING TO GALE FORCE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.  ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY LEADING TO
ADDITIONAL GALE FORCE GUSTS FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MIZ006-007.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ002-
     084.

  WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO 7
     AM EST /6 AM CST/ SUNDAY FOR MIZ002-004-009>011-084.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ003.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ001.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS
     EVENING FOR LSZ162-263-264.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...07
MARINE...KEC