Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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623
FXUS63 KMQT 060538
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
138 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A NNW FLOW ALOFT
DOMINATING THE WRN GREAT LKS BTWN DEEP UPR TROF OVER THE E AND AN
UPR RDG IN CENTRAL NAMERICA. A SFC HI PRES RDG STRETCHING FM THE UPR
MIDWEST INTO WRN QUEBEC AS WELL AS DRY AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE 12Z GRB
RAOB IS BRINGING A MOSUNNY DAY TO UPR MI...BUT MORE MAINLY MID/HI
CLDS RELATED TO WAA IN THE SW FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RDG ARE
PRESENT FM WRN LK SUP INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO. THERE WERE SOME SHOWERS
UNDER THESE CLDS OVER MN WHERE MID LVL LAPSE RATES HAVE BEEN
STEEPER...BUT ABSENCE OF FORCING OTHER THAN WAA AND RELATIVELY DRY
NATURE OF THE AIRMASS ARE LIMITING THE COVERAGE OF THIS PCPN...WITH
A DIMINISHING TREND IN RECENT HRS.

TNGT...AS SFC HI PRES RDG CONTINUES TO SLIDE SEWD...SW FLOW/WAA ARE
PROGGED TO DOMINATE THE CWA. EXPECT SOME MID/HI CLDS RELATED TO THIS
WAA TO PASS OVER THE CWA MAINLY THRU 06Z BEFORE SUBSIDENCE RELATED
TO SHARPENING H7 RDG AXIS DRIES UP THESE CLDS. CONSIDERED ADDING
SOME ISOLD SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTN/THIS EVNG OVER THE FAR W WHERE NAM
SHOWS POCKET OF H7-5 LAPSE RATES ARND 8C/KM AND SOME OF THE HIER RES
MODELS GENERATE SPOTTY QPF...BUT LATEST RADAR TRENDS SUG THE AIRMASS
IS SO DRY IN A RELATIVE SENSE THAT THE DRY FCST GUIDANCE IS ON THE
RIGHT TRACK. COMBINATION OF THE WAA CLDS AND LLVL WARMING RELATED TO
STEADY SW FLOW WL HOLD MIN TEMPS UP MUCH HIER THAN THIS MRNG. IN
FACT...READINGS MAY NOT FALL BLO 50 OVER THE FAR W FM IRONWOOD TO
ONTONAGON WHERE THE SW FLOW WL DOWNSLOPE.

FRI...UPR MI WL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR BTWN DEPARTING SFC HI PRES RDG
TO THE SE AND SFC LO PRES TRACKING ACROSS NW ONTARIO AHEAD OF SHRTWV
MOVING OVER WRN RDG AND INTO FAR NW ONTARIO LATE IN THE DAY. WITH
H85 TEMPS FCST AS HI AS 18C AND A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE WITHIN
LINGERING DRY AIRMASS...TEMPS AWAY FM THE MODERATING INFLUENCE OF
MAINLY LK MI OVER THE W HALF WL RISE WELL INTO THE 80S AND PERHAPS
ARPCH 90 AT A FEW LOCATIONS. WITH DAYTIME MIXING CAUSING SFC DEWPTS
TO DROP AT LEAST CLOSE TO 40 IN THE AFTN...EXPECT MIN RH TO DIP NEAR
20 PCT AT A FEW PLACES. ALTHOUGH STRONG WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH
GUSTS UP TO ARND 20 MPH...FIRE WX CONCERNS WL BE ELEVATED. WINDS WL
BE A BIT STRONGER OVER THE E...BUT MODERATION OFF LK MI WL LIMIT
FIRE WX CONCERNS THERE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

LONG TERM STARTS AT 00Z SAT WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AND WARM AIRMASS
OVER THE REGION. 850MB TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 17C AT 00Z...BUT WILL
DROP TO 1-2C BY 18Z SAT BEHIND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT.
MODELS CONTINUE TO PAINT UP TO 0.20 INCHES OF QPF OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA FRI NIGHT...BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z SAT...BUT SOME AREAS MAY NOT
EVEN SEE 0.10 INCHES. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS AS ELEVATED INSTABILITY
(CAPE UP TO 750 J/KG)...BUT NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO WEAK
SHEAR (0-6KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 20KTS).

DRY AIR MOVES BACK IN ON SAT WITH SUNNY SKIES AND MIN RH VALUES IN
THE MID 20S OVER THE INTERIOR W AROUND AROUND 40 PERCENT INTERIOR E.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVER THE W AND WILL GUST UP TO 25 MPH OVER THE
E. IT WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND E
AND AROUND 60 INTERIOR W. CERTAINLY NOT A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY
BUT THE DRY AIR WILL PROBABLY NEGATE ANY MOISTURE WE GET FRI NIGHT.
CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN LAKE
SUPERIOR AND POSSIBLY THE KEWEENAW AND ERN UPPER MI SAT EVENING INTO
SAT NIGHT AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PASSES N OF THE AREA...BUT THINK
POTENTIAL IS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR LAND AREAS.

SUN WILL SEE SIMILAR TEMPS/RH/CLOUDS TO SAT...BUT WITH LOWER WINDS.

MON AND TUE HAD APPEARED WET FROM EARLIER MODEL RUNS...BUT THOSE
MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER. NOW ONLY THE 00Z/05 ECMWF SHOWS PRECIP
OVER THE CWA...EXCEPT THE GLOBAL GEM WHICH HAS PRECIP BRUSHING SRN
MENOMINEE COUNTY. WILL ACCORDINGLY START A DECREASING TREND FOR THE
POP FORECAST FOR MON THROUGH TUE. NO PRECIP EXPECTED TUE NIGHT
THROUGH THU.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THIS AFTN AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW AS A
DRY AIR MASS WILL LINGER DESPITE HIGH PRES EXITING AND A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING. MARGINAL LLWS IS EXPECTED THRU THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT
AT KIWD/KSAW WITH STRONGER WINDS NOTED ABOVE NOCTURNAL INVERSION PER
KMQT/KDLH VAD WIND PROFILES AND MODEL FCSTS. COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BRINGING A WSHFT TO
THE N AND PERHAPS A FEW SHRA. COVERAGE SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED...SO MOSTLY A VCSH WAS UTILIZED IN FCST. MIGHT BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IF A SHRA DOES AFFECT ANY OF THE TERMINALS.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF LLWS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KIWD AND KCMX AT THE END
OF THE PERIOD AS LOW-LEVEL MARINE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT STABILIZES THE
NEAR SFC LAYER.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

SSW WINDS UP TO 20 KTS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT
TO THE N AT 20-25 KTS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF
THIS BOUNDARY. AS HI PRES BUILDS OVER THE AREA BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH UNDER 15-20 KTS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON/KLUBER
MARINE...KC



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