Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 191929
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
329 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 506 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015

LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH FROM NE CANADA EXTENDING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH THE
WEAKENING REMANTS OF THE MID-LVL LOW CIRCULATION CENTER SW OF JAMES
BAY. AT THE SFC...A TROUGH EXTENDED ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
FROM LOW PRES NOW OVER QUEBEC. WRAPAROUND MOISTURE FROM THE LOW
CIRCULATION STILL SUSTAINING SNOW SHOWERS MIXED WITH RAIN SHOWERS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN UPPER MI EARLY THIS MORNING AS NOTED ON THE
MQT RADAR.

TODAY...SFC HIGH PRES WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA DURING THE DAY AS
LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC. THE ASSOCIATED
DRYING AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST WILL ALLOW ANY
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS MORNING FROM WEST
TO EAST AND END OVER MOST OF THE CWA BY 18Z. ONLY A DUSTING TO MAYBE
HALF AN INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE ON GRASSY AREAS OF
NORTH CENTRAL HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS BEFORE SNOW ENDS THIS
MORNING. CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST MAINLY
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER PRESSURE AND ASSOC
DRIER AIR WORKING IN FM WEST. OTHERWISE...UNSEASONABLY COLD
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNDER GUSTY NW WINDS (20 TO 25 MPH
ESPECIALLY EAST HALF) AS HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S
NORTH AND EAST TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S SOUTH AND WEST.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. THE DRY AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH WILL DIMINISH ANY LINGERING CLOUDS OVER THE
EASTERN CWA QUICKLY DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE CLEARING
SKIES AND WEAKENING WINDS WILL LEAD TO A COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.
HAVE FOLLOWED THE LOWER END OF MODEL GUIDANCE (GIVEN PWAT VALUES AT
OR BELOW 0.25IN ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR)...WHICH INDICATES
VALUES IN THE 20S FOR MOST INTERIOR LOCATIONS...COLDEST INTERIOR
WEST ALONG THE WI BORDER WHERE LOWS COULD DIP INTO THE LOWER TO MID
20S. ALTHOUGH OUR FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM HASN/T STARTED YET...WOULD
EXPECT A WIDESPREAD FROST ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN AND A HARD FREEZE
OVER THE INTERIOR WEST. PERSONS WITH SENSITIVE PLANTS SHOULD TAKE
THE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT AGAINST A HARD FROST AND/OR
FREEZE AND WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF THIS IN THE HWO STATEMENT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015

A QUIET FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION...DUE TO THE AREA BEING BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER EASTERN CANADA AND ANOTHER OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS. WHILE THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE BRUSHED BY A FEW
WAVES ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES...THE OVERALL FLOW WILL BE OUT
OF THE NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST WITH LIMITED MOISTURE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF THE WEDNESDAY TO SATURDAY
PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RUNNING BELOW NORMAL
(ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR). THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT ITEM OF NOTE
IS A COLD FRONT THAT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WITH MOISTURE CONTINUING TO LOOK LIMITED...WILL
JUST SHOW PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THERE
ARE SOME HINTS THAT DIURNAL HEATING MAY BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF A
STRAY SHOWER OVER SOUTHERN MENOMINEE COUNTY (MORE LIKELY IN
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN) WITH SOME HELP FROM A LAKE BREEZE OFF THE BAY
OF GREEN BAY. DON/T HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE POPS FOR
ANY FARTHER NORTH THAN THE CITY OF MENOMINEE...BUT IT WILL BE
SOMETHING TO WATCH. ANOTHER BRIEF COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR BEFORE HIGHS SLOWLY
RISE TOWARDS MORE NORMAL VALUES ON SATURDAY (DUE TO THE HIGH
DEPARTING AND SOUTHERLY FLOW STARTING TO DEVELOP.

MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT ON ENERGY FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS
TROUGH EJECTING NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE PLAINS WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL MOVE INTO IOWA BY SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
THE LATEST TREND IS FOR THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL WAVE TO
LIFT FARTHER TO THE NORTH THAN THOUGHT YESTERDAY...SO WILL TREND
POPS UP ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH.
INSTABILITY AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN WEAK DURING THAT
PERIOD...WITH THE AREA GENERALLY ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE
SURFACE LOW...SO WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST. NEXT WEEK
STILL LOOKS TO BE UNSETTLED...AS THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWEST
CONUS WEAKENS AND LIFTS THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 128 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015

AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH
MUCH DRIER AIR AND MIXING AT KIWD AND INTO KCMX AND KSAW MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON AS NNW GRADUALLY DIMINISH.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 506 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015

LOW PRES CENTERED OVER QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE TODAY AS HIGH
PRES GRADUALLY BUILDS IN FM THE WEST. NNW WINDS TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS
(HIGHEST EAST HALF) THIS MORNING WILL DIMINISH W TO E THIS
AFTERNOON/TONIGHT AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN FM THE WEST DECREASING THE
PRES GRADIENT. WED THRROUGH SAT...WINDS WILL BE UNDER 20KT AS SFC
HIGH PRES REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS



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