Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 160007
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
707 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND A NORTHERN TROUGH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA THIS MORNING.
THERE IS ALSO RIDGING OVER THE ERN U.S. AND THE ROCKIES. THE CLOSED
LOW AND THE TROUGH TRY TO MERGE INTO ONE SYSTEM AS THE LOW HEADS
NORTHEAST AND THE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST TODAY. THE NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM TAKES OVER AS THE STRONGER SYSTEM TUE AFTERNOON. NAM...GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE REMAINING OVER THE
AREA THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. COLDER AIR
COMES IN TONIGHT WHICH WILL START TO GET RID OF THE FOG...SO WILL
LET DENSE FOG ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 8 PM. FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE
ECMWF...GFS AND NAM FOR THIS FORECAST FOR PCPN TYPES AND WAS NOT
MUCH DIFFERENT FROM GOING FORECAST AND SNOW DOES NOT REALLY GET
STARTED ACROSS THE WEST UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. DID NOT WORRY TOO MUCH
ABOUT SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN AS THIS DID NOT LOOK LIKE IT WOULD LAST
VERY LONG AT ALL AND KEPT THE PCPN GOING FROM RAIN TO SNOW FOR THIS
FORECAST. BROUGHT THE COLD AIR IN A LITTLE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING TEMPERATURES
AND DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO POPS OR QPF AMOUNTS EITHER.
SNOW AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE 1-4 INCHES ON TUESDAY WITH THE SNOW REALLY
STARTING UP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE LIGHT UNTIL
THEN AND WILL NOT GO WITH ANY ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 450 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014

A RETURN TO MUCH COOLER...BUT NEAR NORMAL...WEATHER.

SECONDARY ROADWAYS AND SIDEWALKS WILL BECOME SLICK DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO RUSH IN. THE
MAIN HOLD OUT WILL STILL BE JUST E OF THE CWA...WHERE TEMPS WILL
STILL BE MARGINAL FOR ALL SNOW. 850MB TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM -1C
EAST TO AROUND -15C NEAR IWD. IT WILL BE QUITE A CONTRAST E TO W.
MODERATE LAKE ENHANCED SNOW WILL BE ONGOING OVER THE W
THIRD...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN FAVORED BY N-NNW
WINDS. THE MAIN SFC LOW SHOULD BE OVER S LAKE HURON AND FAR S
ONTARIO...WITH THE 500MB LOW ACROSS N MN. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING FROM MANITOBA/W ONTARIO THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
ASSIST IN THE STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR
SHORELINE REMAINING IN THE 15-25KT RANGE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT BLOWING ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR
SHORELINE.

WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW/WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT
THIS TIME. GIVEN SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS OF 15-17:1...WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES MAY BE THE WAY TO GO. CONTINUED TO MENTION THE MODERATE
SNOW POTENTIAL IN THE HWO. WITH GENERALLY AN INCH OF SNOW OR LESS
FALLING ON SATURATED SOILS UNLESS A QUICK BURST OF HEAVIER SNOW
FALLS...EXPECT THE BEST ACCUMULATIONS TO BE FALL IN THE 3RD PERIOD
/TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY/. THE DGZ WILL HOVER STILL
AROUND 600MB OVER THE CENTRAL U.P...WITH THE COLDER AIR ALOFT
SLIDING OVER THE W. THIS WILL MEAN FAVORABLE WINDS AND TEMPERATURES
FOR GOGEBIC THROUGH HOUGHTON COUNTIES...WITH A SECONDARY AREA OF -15
TO -20C RIGHT AROUND 850MB. STORM TOTAL SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE DAY WEDNESDAY COULD ACCUMULATE 2-6IN OVER THE N HALF OF UPPER MI
AND ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR.

THE SFC TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE EXITING LOW WILL LINGER ACROSS
UPPER MI/LAKE SUPERIOR/LAKE MI THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. DRIER AIR
WILL PUT AN END TO ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE DRY HIGH PUSHING IN
FROM THE PLAINS WILL CENTER ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SNOW LOOKS TO
HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT...AND LOOKS MINOR AT THIS TIME RIGHT
ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR. LOOK FOR UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S TO RETURN FRIDAY
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 705 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014

EXPECT LIFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES TO TEMPORARILY IMPROVE TO
IFR/MVFR FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THE ARRIVAL OF
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR. THE MOST AUSTERE VLIFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WL
PERSIST LONGEST AT SAW...WHERE THE COLD FNT WL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATER
IN THE EVNG. THE BEST CHC FOR MORE IMPROVED CONDITIONS WL BE AT CMX
WITH A WEAKER UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT FOR THE N WIND BEHIND THE FROPA.
AS COLDER AIR RETURNS...RA WL CHANGE TO SN W-E OVERNGT AND BRING
ABOUT A DROP IN VSBY AND A RETURN TO IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ON TUE.
GUSTY N WINDS WL ALSO CAUSE SOME BLSN LATE TNGT/TUE...CONTRIBUTING TO
THE LOWER VSBYS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 311 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014

COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING REDUCING THE FOG.
EXPECT N-NW WINDS OF 20-30KTS LATE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY
EVENING. A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AND THIS
WILL BE THE STRONGEST WIND FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST. NO
GALES SEEN ANYTIME SOON OTHERWISE.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST /7 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     MIZ001>007-009>014-084-085.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LMZ221-248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...07



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