Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 082305
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
705 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A RIDGE OVER WRN NAMERICA
AND A DOWNSTREAM TROF WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM NCNTRL CANADA INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. ONE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE MOVING THRU THE TROF BROUGHT
SHRA AND SOME TSRA TO MUCH OF THE FCST AREA LAST NIGHT INTO THE
MORNING HRS. THAT WAVE IS NOW E OF LAKE SUPERIOR. UPSTREAM...THERE
ARE A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES...ONE NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG AND THE OTHER JUST
TO THE E IN NRN ONTARIO. NEITHER ARE AS STRONG AS THE ONE THAT
AFFECTED THE AREA EARLIER TODAY. THE WAVE NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG IS THE
STRONGER OF THE TWO AND WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER IN THE WEATHER HERE
TONIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE THAT PASSED EARLIER TODAY...
CLOUDS HAVE HELD TOUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...AND THIS HAS
RESULTED IN A VERY COOL DAY FOR EARLY JULY STANDARDS. AS OF 19Z...
READINGS WERE STILL ONLY HOVERING AROUND 50F NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND
AROUND 60/LWR 60S ACROSS SCNTRL UPPER MI. SO FAR...TEMP HAS ONLY
REACHED 54F HERE AT THE NWS OFFICE. RECORD LOW MAX TEMP FOR TODAY IS
60F. IF LOW STRATUS HANGS AROUND THRU SUNSET...THAT RECORD WILL
FALL. WHERE CLOUDS HAVE BROKEN TO ALLOW FOR SUNSHINE FROM NE MN INTO
NRN WI...BUILD UP OF A LITTLE INSTABILITY UNDER COOL CYCLONIC NW
FLOW COMBINED WITH A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE HAS ALLOWED -SHRA/ISOLD TSRA
TO DEVELOP. THOSE SHRA HAVE BEEN BRUSHING MENOMINEE COUNTY.
OTHERWISE...ISOLD -SHRA/PATCHY -DZ HAVE BEEN OCCURRING ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY.

ISOLD -SHRA MAY LINGER NEAR THE WI/MI BORDER INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HRS. OTHERWISE...ATTENTION TURNS TO THE NW. ALTHOUGH UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVES WILL BE PASSING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES DURING THE NIGHT
WHEN INSTABILITY IS DIMINISHING TOWARD DIURNAL MIN...EXPECT SOME
SHRA TO PERSIST NEAR THE TRACK OF THE WAVES...PARTICULARLY NEAR THE
AFORMENTIONED STRONGER WRN WAVE. THIS SHOULD PUT BEST POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLD/SCT SHRA ROUGHLY OVER THE W HALF OF UPPER MI. SINCE SHORTWAVE
IS WEAKER THAN LAST NIGHTS WAVE...MUCAPE IS UNDER 100J/KG...
SHOWALTER INDEX IS ABOVE 0 AND NO TSRA HAVE DEVELOPED WITH WAVE SO
FAR THIS AFTN...HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION OF THUNDER TONIGHT.

ISOLD -SHRA MAY LINGER THRU WED MORNING WITH WEAK TRAILING SHORTWAVE
ENERGY. HOWEVER...WITH SOLID HEIGHT RISES TAKING OVER DURING THE DAY
(12HR 500MB HEIGHTS RISE 70-90M) ALONG WITH COLUMN DRYING...EXPECT A
DRYING TREND WED. THERE MAY BE A FEW AFTN -SHRA OVER THE SCNTRL AS
LAKE MICHIGAN LAKE BREEZE TRIES TO MOVE INLAND...SO ISOLD -SHRA
MENTION WAS LINGERED INTO THE AFTN IN THAT AREA. AS OPPOSED TO
TODAY...EXPECT MORE SUNSHINE TO DEVELOP WED UNDER DRYING/HEIGHT
RISES. THIS WILL HELP BOOST TEMPS TOWARD 70F INLAND. WHERE WINDS ARE
ONSHORE THRU THE DAY...TEMPS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR WILL NOT GET OUT OF
THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014

LARGE SCALE PATTERN LOOKS SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS OCCURRING THIS TIME
LAST WEEK. TROUGHING TO START THE WEEK THEN RELAXING HEIGHTS MORE
ZONAL FLOW LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. SEEMS THIS PATTERN CHANGES
BACK TO TROUGHING QUICKER THOUGH WITH ECMWF/GFS/GEM-NH TRENDING BACK
TO TROUGHING BY SUNDAY AND PERSISTING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. PRIMARY
RAIN CHANCES OCCUR AS THE FLOW GOES ZONAL...FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
DECENT AGREEMENT THAT MAIN COLD FROPA OCCURS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. DPROG/DT...SEEING HOW THE MODELS ARE CHANGING OVER THEIR
RECENT RUNS...INDICATES STRONG CONSISTENCY FM THE MODELS IN MASS
FIELDS /MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS AND MSLP/ THROUGH SATURDAY.

AHEAD OF THE COLD FROPA ON SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER IS OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
LOW TEMPS COOLEST ON WED NIGHT WITH PWATS AROUND 50 PCT OF NORMAL
BENEATH THE RIDGE AXIS. FAVORED COLD SPOTS INTERIOR MAY SEE LOWS
AROUND 40 DEGREES. OTHERWISE...READINGS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO AROUND
50. WARMER NIGHT EXPECTED ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS AS RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST. MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY AROUND
NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...WITH ONLY LOCAL COOLING NEAR IMMEDIATE
GREAT LAKES SHORES.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVES BEGIN TO
WORK ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT LAKES IN A MORE WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. LEAD SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OFFSHORE OF OREGON SLIDES ACROSS
ON FRIDAY. STRONGER WAVE IS FORECAST TO CROSS MANTIOBA AND NORTHWEST
ONTARIO. H85-H7 MOISTURE TRANSPORT LOOKS SPLIT IN TWO AREAS...STRONGEST
CLOSER TO THE CANADIAN TROUGH. INSTABILITY AXIS BOTH AT SFC AND ALOFT
ELEVATED LAGS BOTH WAVES SO NOT EXPECTING STRONG STORMS LATER THU
NIGHT OR FRIDAY. THETA-E ADVECTION RAMPS UP FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SUPPORT GREATER
COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA. INSTABILITY REMAINS ONLY MARGINAL WITH
200-400J/KG OF 1-6KM MUCAPE AS GREATEST MLCAPE AND 1-6KM MUCAPE
SETTLES MORE SOUTH INTO MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THAN EAST ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES ARE UP TO 30 KTS FRIDAY
NIGHT...SO CANNOT COUNT OUT SOME STRONGER STORMS. SEVERE RISK DOES
APPEAR PRETTY MARGINAL.

DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASES TO 40+ KTS BY SATURDAY AFTN. 12Z ECMWF
INDICATES MORE MLCAPE THAN EARLIER RUNS...CENTERED OVER CNTRL UPR
MICHIGAN IN THE AFTN. LOOKS AS IF THE COLD FRONT MAY BE SLIGHTLY
SLOWER. AS LONG AS THE SHRA/TSRA FROM FRIDAY NIGHT AND ASSOCIATED
COOLING/STABILIZING AFFECTS ARE OUT OF THE WAY IN TIME...COULD SEE
ISOLD STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS OVR CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN SATURDAY AFTN
IF THERE IS ENOUGH SUNSHINE. H7 WINDS ARE MORE WESTERLY. ATTM BASED
ON EXPECTED POSITION OF COLD FRONT AND A MORE WEST TO EAST MEAN
STORM MOTION...LOOKS LIKE GREATEST RISK FOR STRONGER STORMS WOULD BE
OVER SCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN. WHATEVER SHRA/TSRA ARE AROUND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...SHOULD DIMINISH/END LATER SATURDAY NIGHT.

MODEL CONSISTENCY BECOMES MORE JUMPY SUNDAY/MONDAY...BUT LAST COUPLE
RUNS OF EACH MODEL IS HEADING TOWARD MORE TROUGHING/COOLER WEATHER.
PRIMARY ISSUE IS POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER SFC LOW PRESSURE
ON LEADING EDGE OF MID-LEVEL TROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
RECENT RUNS OF GEM-NH STILL HANGING ON TO THIS IDEA WHILE 06Z GFS
WAS THE FIRST GFS RUN SINCE JULY 7/12Z TO SHOW SIMILAR SOLN. 12Z GFS
DOES NOT HAVE IT AGAIN. ECMWF SHOWED STRONGER LOW ON THE JULY 6/12Z
RUN...BUT HAS SINCE BACKED AWAY.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...TREND IS CERTAINLY THERE FOR A RETURN TO
TROUGHING AND BLO NORMAL TEMPS...LIKELY OVER 20 DEGREES BLO NORMAL
FOR DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR LK SUPERIOR. CORE OF COOLEST AIR AT H85 OVER
MANITOBA AND ONTARIO BOTTOMS OUT AROUND 0C ON THE ECMWF AND AROUND
+2C ON THE GFS ON MONDAY. UPPER LOW CENTER SETTLES ACROSS GREAT
LAKES BY NEXT TUESDAY WITH H85 TEMPS STAYING BLO +5C AND PLENTY OF
H85-H7 MOISTURE. SFC LOW FORECAST TO BE EAST OF LK SUPERIOR REGION...
SO NORTH WINDS WILL KEEP UPPER GREAT LAKES VERY COOL. RECORD LOW
MAXES FOR MID JULY ARE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...BUT SOME
VALUES IN JULY ARE EVEN IN THE LOWER 50S. MAY SEE SOME TEMPS EARLY
NEXT WEEK COME CLOSE TO THESE LOWER READINGS. IT IS CERTAINLY WITHIN
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY. CHANCES OF SEEING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS IN THE
PATTERN PRETTY HIGH...SO THAT WOULD ONLY HELP KEEP TEMPS ON THE COOL
SIDE. PROBABLY GOES WITHOUT SAYING...BUT NO REAL STRETCHES OF WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE SEEN ANYTIME IN THE MEDIUM RANGE TIME PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 705 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014

ALL TERMINALS WILL STAY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. DISTURBANCE DROPPING
INTO THE UPPER LAKES MAY BRING SOME -SHRA TO KIWD/KCMX LATE THIS
EVENING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW 25 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE
OF ANY STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. GREATEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT GRADUALLY CROSSES
LAKE SUPERIOR. COULD SEE DENSE FOG AT TIMES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS AS SOUTH WINDS TRANSPORT MORE HUMID AIR
ACROSS LK SUPERIOR.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLA





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