Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 211952
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
352 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

COLD FRONT IS OVER FAR SCNTRL CWA AND CU IS EXPANDING AND ARE NOW
SEEING SHRA POP UP OVER SOUTHERN MENOMINEE COUNTY IN CONVERGENCE
ZONE FM FRONT AND LAKE BREEZES OFF BAY OF GREEN BAY. BASED ON LATEST
HRRR AND RADAR TRENDS...KEPT SHRA IN FAR SOUTH MENOMINEE COUNTY
TROUGH 21Z. NO LIGHTNING YET...EITHER CLOUD TO GROUND OR CLOUD TO
CLOUD/IN CLOUD STRIKES...BUT WITH POCKET OF MUCAPES UP TO 300J/KG
OVER FAR NORTHEAST WI WHERE TEMPS ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...PUT
MENTION IN WHERE THERE IS MENTION OF SHRA. THAT IS ALL THE CLOUDS TO
SPEAK OF THOUGH WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE AND CLEAR SKIES WILL DOMINATE
OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVERHEAD LEADS TO MIN TEMPS BACK INTO THE 20S FOR INTERIOR FAVORED
COLD SPOTS /TEMPS UPSTREAM THIS MORNING OVER ONTARIO WERE IN THE 20S
BENEATH THE HIGH. LIGHT NORTH/NORTHEAST WIND SHOULD KEEP IMMEDIATE
SHORELINE OF LK SUPERIOR MORE IN THE MID 30S.

DRY ON FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER AFTN OF LOW MIN RH. FIRE WX ISSUES SHOULD
BE MITIGATED AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
OVERHEAD. BY MID-LATE AFTN...SHOULD SEE WINDS NEAR LK MICHIGAN BECOME
ORIENTED MORE WITH LAKE BREEZES. DESPITE CHILLY AIR ALOFT WITH H85
TEMPS BLO 0C TO START THE DAY...DEEPER MIXING SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS ON
FRIDAY INTO LOWER 60S ALONG WI BORDER. GRADIENT NORTH WINDS WILL KEEP
READINGS IN THE 40S ALL DAY NEAR LK SUPERIOR.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

AFTER A PERIOD OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...WILL SEE THE
PATTERN TRANSITIONING DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM
FORECAST. THE UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL
LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST...ALLOWING THE AREA TO COME UNDER A GREATER
INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS BEFORE IT
MERGES WITH THE UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER NORTHERN HUDSON BAY. AS
THIS OCCURS...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE TO NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL VALUES THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK.
MEANWHILE...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON SUNDAY
AND BE THE GREATEST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AS THE MAIN ENERGY
FROM THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. MODELS STILL VARY ON SOLUTIONS FOR THE TIMING/LOCATION OF
THE SHOWERS AND RESULTANT SURFACE LOW TRACK...SO CONFIDENCE ON
AMOUNTS IS LOW (BUT DOESN/T APPEAR AS THOUGH IT WILL BE MUCH OVER
0.5IN EXCEPT NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN). HAVE LEFT THUNDER OUT OF THE
FORECAST AT THIS POINT WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES AND TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...BUT IF THE TRACK IS FAR
ENOUGH TO THE NORTHWEST...COULD SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THERE ARE
SOME HINTS OF WEAK RIDGING ALOFT IN THE PREDOMINATELY SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW FOR MID WEEK BEFORE THE NEXT DISTURBANCE ARRIVES FROM THE WEST
FOR THURSDAY.

ONE FINAL NOTE...WITH THE DEPARTING HIGH ON SATURDAY LEADING TO
INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF A TROUGH BRUSHING
NORTHEAST LAKE SUPERIOR...THERE WILL BE AN ELEVATED FIRE CONCERN.
MIN RH VALUES WILL BE AROUND 30 PERCENT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
20MPH...BUT IT WILL BE PARTIALLY OFFSET BY THE INCREASING GREEN-UP
SEEN WITH THE GRASSES ACROSS THE AREA.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. NORTH WINDS IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT THIS AFTN ARE STRONGEST AT
KSAW WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS. WINDS BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT FOR ALL TAF
SITES AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD. LIGHT LAKE BREEZES ON
FRIDAY.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 313 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

WINDS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK APPEAR TO REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KTS OVER LK
SUPERIOR. ONLY EXCEPTION IS ON SATURDAY AS SW WINDS INCREASE TO 25
KTS OVER ESPECIALLY NORTHERN HALF OF LK SUPERIOR DUE TO TIGHTER
PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT DEVELOPS BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER
NORTHERN ONTARIO AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLING ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES. SINCE MARINE LAYER WILL BE STRONGER...WITH WARM AIR
JUST ABOVE THE LAKE WATER SURFACE...STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR AT
HIGHER OBSERVATION PLATFORMS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...JLA


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