Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 222017
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
417 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF MOVING ONSHORE
ALONG THE W COAST OF THE CONUS. JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE TROF...A
SHARP RIDGE ALIGNED ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES IS ALLOWING FOR
TROF AMPLIFICATION INTO THE GREAT LAKES...LED BY SHORTWAVE THAT WAS
PASSING JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR 24HRS AGO. PER 12Z RAOBS AND
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS...850MB THERMAL TROF IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER
CNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR/CNTRL UPPER MI. AS A RESULT...CLOUD COVER HAS
BEEN SLOW TO CLEAR THIS AFTN. TRAILING SHORTWAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY
DROPPING SE THRU WRN UPPER MI/NRN LAKE MICHIGAN IS ALSO AIDING THE
CLOUD COVER AND HAS ALSO GENERATED FLURRIES/-SHSN THIS AFTN.
FLURRIES/-SHSN HAVE ENDED ON THE KEWEENAW AND WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE
REST OF THE FCST AREA IN THE NEXT 2-3HRS. AS WOULD BE EXPECTED UNDER
THE THERMAL TROF AND WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...TEMPS HAVE STUGGLED
TO RISE TODAY. MID AFTN READINGS ARE IN THE 30S ACROSS MUCH OF UPPER
MI (LOW 30S AT SOME LOCATIONS) TO THE LOW/MID 40S SCNTRL AND NEAR
KIWD.

CLEARING IS NOW GETTING UNDERWAY ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY
THE W HALF. SKIES WILL CLEAR ACROSS THE BOARD DURING THE EVENING AS
MUCH DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM THE N AND
W...BUT CLOUDS WILL HANG ON LONGEST OVER THE E AS THERE IS STILL AN
AXIS OF MOISTURE/CLOUDS EXTENDING BACK TOWARD LAKE NIPIGON. AFTER A
CHILLY DAY...CLEAR SKIES WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO LIGHT/CALM AS SFC
HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS SETTLES OVER WRN UPPER MI DURING THE NIGHT WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR A COLD NIGHT. DRY AIR MASS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
IN THE 40-50PCT RANGE WILL ENHANCE RADIATIONAL COOLING. WILL GO AT
OR BLO LOWEST GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY WHERE MEANINGFUL SNOWCOVER STILL
EXITS. TRADIATIONAL COLDS SPOTS WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE TEENS...
BUT 20S WILL GENERALLY BE THE RULE. RECORD LOW FOR NWS MQT FOR APR
23 IS 17F. MIGHT BE CLOSE TO THAT.

ON WED...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TO START THE DAY WILL GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE W. WITH SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE JUST
DRIFTING E...MESOHIGH WILL SET UP OVER CNTRL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR
DURING THE AFTN AND ALSO OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. AS A RESULT...LAKE
BREEZES WILL DOMINATE...KEEPING LAKESIDE LOCATIONS CHILLY...PROBABLY
30S FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. DRY AIR MASS WILL AID DEEP MIXING
POTENTIAL...SO AREAS WELL INLAND FROM THE LAKES WILL BE ABLE TO WARM
NICELY AFTER THE COLD START. MIXING TO AROUND 800MB ON FCST
SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS MAX TEMPS INTO THE MID 50S ALONG THE WI BORDER.
WILL BE WARMER IF MIXING IS HIGHER. MIXING WILL ALSO RESULT IN DWPTS
FALLING DURING THE AFTN. UTILIZED SOME OF THE DRYING POTENTIAL BASED
ON MIXING HEIGHT TO LOWER DWPTS TO JUST UNDER 20F IN THE INTERIOR.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 548 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

WILL CONCENTRATE MUCH OF THIS DISCUSSION OF THE UPCOMING END OF THE
WORK WEEK/START OF THE WEEKEND SYSTEM.

HOWEVER...WE WILL START OFF THE PERIOD WITH THE SFC HIGH OVERHEAD AT
12Z WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT E THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
LAKE BREEZES DOMINATING DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS...WITH HIGHS
TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S INTERIOR W HALF.

THE DOUBLE BARREL LOW WILL STRETCH FROM S SASKATCHEWAN THROUGH IA AT
12Z THURSDAY...WITH INCREASED MOISTURE OF SE WINDS ACROSS UPPER MI.
850MB WINDS OF 40-50KT ARE STILL SHOWING UP BY 18Z OVER THE W
HALF...WITH GUSTS ON THE ORDER OF 20-25KTS MAKING IT TO THE SFC.
RAIN WILL QUICKLY SPREAD IN THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE SFC LOWS
ALIGNING FROM NE TO WI BY 00Z FRIDAY.

THE SOUNDINGS ARE NEARLY ISOTHERMAL ACROSS THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA...WITH TEMPS HOVERING RIGHT AROUND 0C...WITH A SLIGHT
CHANGE IN THE PROFILE RESULTING IN ALL RAIN OR ALL SNOW. ROADWAYS
MAY BE SPARED INITIALLY FROM ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW AS NEAR-SFC TEMPS
RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S TEMPORARILY ON THURSDAY.

LOOKS TO BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH THE DGZ BETWEEN 500
AND 600MB THROUGH THE EVENT. ONE CHANGE HAS BEEN A PUSH FOR HIGHER
PRECIP S OF THE BORDER INTO WI...CLOSER TO THE S SFC LOW OVER WI
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. STILL HAVE 0.5-1.0IN OF LIQUID ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA...WITH OVER 0.75IN W OF A LINE FROM BIG BAY TO MNM.

UPDATED HWO TO INCLUDE THE MENTION OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
POTENTIAL...MAINLY ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...AND ELEVATED RISK
IN THE EHWO GRAPHICS. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR THE COLD AIR TO SLIP
ACROSS BARAGA AND MARQUETTE COUNTIES...INCLUDED THE THREAT FOR THEM
AS WELL. HAVE 4-7IN OF SNOW IN THE FCST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...WITH MOST OF THAT FALLING
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AS NOTED ABOVE...IT/S A TRICKY
FCST SO EXPECT A FEW MORE CHANGES TO THE CURRENT THINKING BEFORE
IT/S ALL SAID AND DONE...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES. MAY HAVE 2-5IN MORE SNOW THAN WHAT IS FCST OVER THE
KEWEENAW IF THE COLDER AIR WINS OUT...AND SLR/S OF 10-15:1 OCCUR
LIKE BUFKIT IS PAINTING OUT FOR THE GFS. CURRENTLY HAVE RATIOS
CLOSER TO 10:1 IN OUR ONGOING FCST.

THE NEARLY STACKED SFC TO 500MB LOW ACROSS NE AND S MANITOBA AT 00Z
FRIDAY WILL PUSH ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT...AND EXIT OVER AND E
OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY 00Z SATURDAY. COLDER AIR WILL FINALLY PUSH INTO
W AND CENTRAL UPPER MI TO RESULT IN ALL SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
850MB TEMPS FALLING TO -6 TO -8C. FAVORABLE NORTHERLY FLOW OFF THE
BROKEN/ICE COVERED WATERS OF LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A
LITTLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT BEFORE MUCH DRIER AIR WORKS IN ON SATURDAY.
THE HUDSON BAY HIGH WILL DOMINATE OUR FCST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD...WITH COOL N FLOW LINGERING ACROSS THE CWA. THE 60 AND 70
DEGREE TEMPS OF YESTERDAY WILL BE JUST A MEMORY...WITH 30S AND 40S
FOR HIGHS THURSDAY THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

GUSTY NW WINDS TO 20-25KT AT KCMX/KSAW WILL DIMINISH...ESPECIALLY
LATE AFTN...WITH THE SLOW APPROACH OF HIGH PRES FROM THE PLAINS AND
A WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT. WITH DRIER AIR ARRIVING FROM THE N AND W
ALONG WITH DAYTIME MIXING...EXPECT MVFR CIGS AT KSAW/KCMX TO LIFT
ABOVE 3KFT OR TO SCATTER OUT LATER THIS AFTN. KIWD HAS ALREADY
TRENDED VFR. SCATTERED FLURRIES/SPRINKLES WILL ALSO END IN THE NEXT
FEW HRS. DRY AIR MASS WILL THEN DOMINATE TONIGHT THRU WED...
RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS/VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 416 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

AS HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDING FROM MN SOUTHWARD SHIFTS TO WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR/WRN UPPER MI TONIGHT...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FROM W
TO E. WINDS ARE ALREADY LIGHT OVER THE WRN LAKE...AND THE INITIAL NW
20-30KT WINDS OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL DROP TO UNDER 15KT
TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS WILL LINGER THRU WED AS HIGH PRES RIDGE SLOWLY
DRIFTS E. HOWEVER...E WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TOWARD 20KT OVER
FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE AFTN. EASTERLY WINDS WILL THEN
GRADUALLY INCREASE WED NIGHT AND WILL REACH 20-30KT ACROSS MUCH OF
LAKE SUPERIOR THU IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRES APPROACHING THE WRN GREAT
LAKES. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE LOW...NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THERE COULD BE SOME GALE FORCE WINDS OVER
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE TERRAIN FUNNELING/COASTAL CONVERGENCE
WOULD ENHANCE THIS E WIND. AS THE LOW SHIFTS TO THE E LATER ON FRI
INTO SAT AHEAD OF HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO SCENTRAL CANADA...THE WIND
WILL SHIFT TO THE N AND SLOWLY DIMINISH WITH THE CLOSER APPROACH OF
THE HIGH ON SAT. BEST CHANCE FOR SOME GALES FRI INTO EARLY SAT WOULD
BE OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE...AGAIN...DEPENDING ON INTENSITY OF
THE LOW.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

AFTER ANOTHER GOOD DAY OF MELTING ON MONDAY...TODAY WILL BE QUITE A
BIT DIFFERENT. LOOK FOR LITTLE ADDITIONAL MELTING AS HIGHS STRUGGLE
TO RISE PAST THE MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREAS THAT STILL HAVE 5
INCHES OR MORE SNOW STILL ON THE GROUND. THIS SHOULD LIMIT
ADDITIONAL RISES ON MANY OF THE AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. ALTHOUGH
RATHER COOL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAINS...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
RETURN THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ADDING TO THE RUNOFF. AT THIS POINT
THE BEST CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE OVER THE
WEST HALF OF UPPER MI...AND SPECIFICALLY THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA...WHERE 0.50-1.00 INCH OF LIQUID WILL BE POSSIBLE BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH WILL FALL AS
RAIN AND HOW MUCH WILL FALL AS SNOW...BUT THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW
WILL BE OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. WE WILL CONTINUE TO REFINE THE
FCST AS THE TIME NEARS.

SO FAR THE LOCATIONS EXPERIENCING SIGNIFICANT RISES HAVE BEEN
ALSTON/ALSM4/ ON THE STURGEON RIVER...ROCKLAND/RKLM4/ ON THE
ONTONAGON RIVER...CRYSTAL FALLS/CRYM4/ ON THE PAINT RIVER...HARVEY/
HRVM4/ ON THE CHOCOLAY RIVER...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT HYDE/FRDM4/ ON
THE FORD RIVER /...WHICH LOOKS TO BE FLUCTUATING DUE TO ICE JAM
ISSUES/. GIVEN INCREASED DISCHARGE FROM THE PRICKETT DAM JUST
UPSTREAM OF THE ALSM4 GAUGE ON THE STURGEON RIVER...THE RIVER AT
THAT LOCATION ROSE TO NEAR BANKFULL EARLY TUE MRNG. ISSUED A RIVER
STATEMENT TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE HIGHER LEVELS. BUT SINCE SNOW MELT
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WL BE DIMINISHING...EXPECT THE RIVER TO SLOWLY
SUBSIDE AND NOT EXCEED FLOOD STAGE.

WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT FORESEEN AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH SOME
LOCATIONS MAY RISE TO NEAR BANKFULL. HOWEVER...ANY RIVER THAT HAS
ICE REMAINING ON IT...ESPECIALLY THE ESCANABA RIVER IN DELTA
COUNTY...COULD EXPERIENCE AN ICE JAM WITH THE RISING RIVER LEVELS
THIS WEEK. THOSE LIVING AROUND RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS SHOULD
MONITOR BOTH RIVER LEVELS AND ICE CONDITIONS. ICE JAMS CAN FORM AND
BREAK QUICKLY...RESULTING IN RAPIDLY FLUCTUATING RIVER LEVELS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
HYDROLOGY...KF/KC






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