Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 301227
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
727 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 528 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

WHILE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE E OF
MARQUETTE...THE WINDS ARE NO WHERE NEAR THE 35-45 MPH WINDS THAT WE
HAD YESTERDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. INVERSION HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO FALL
TO AROUND 3KFT OR LESS THIS MORNING...SO DESPITE -16 TO -20C 850MB
TEMPERATURES SLIDING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...LIMITED MOISTURE IS
RESULTING IN MORE ANEMIC BROKEN LINES OF LES. THE FAVORABLE
CONVERGENCE OVER THE W HALF OF ALGER COUNTY WILL SHIFT E LATE THIS
MORNING AS WINDS TURN MORE OUT OF THE W /AND EVEN OUT OF THE SW OVER
THE E TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA/. LES ADVISORY FOR ALGER AND N
SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES WAS ABLE TO EXPIRE AT 5AM...WHICH TIMED OUT
WITH THE RE-OPENING OF M-28 FROM E OF HARVEY TO MUNISING.

EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO ONLY RISE INTO THE TEENS TODAY DESPITE WAA
AND 850MB TEMPS RISING TO AN AVERAGE -13C BY 00Z SATURDAY.
STILL...PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL LINGER ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR. KEPT THE
LOWEST TEMPS OUT E...WHERE THEY WILL NEED TO RECOVER FROM 0F VALUES
THIS MORNING. THIS WILL ALSO BE WHERE THE COLDEST AIR WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS.

WITH STEADY NW FLOW ALOFT...ANY BREAK IN THE SNOW WILL LIKELY BE
SHORT LIVED. ALREADY SEEING SNOW FALLING ACROSS S MANITOBA WITH THE
NEXT WAVE NEARING UPPER MI. LOOK FOR THE SFC HIGH EXTENDING FROM
JUST NW OF LAKE MI THROUGH MO TO SINK TO THE OH VALLEY BY DAYBREAK
SATURDAY. LOOK TO TAKE IT/S PLACE...SETTLING ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE
SUPERIOR BY 12Z SATURDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE SNOW INCREASING W TO E
LATE TONIGHT...AND BECOMING LIKELY ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA
AFTER 06Z AS WINS TURN MORE OUT OF THE NW/UPSLOPE FOR THE W HALF OF
THE KEWEENAW BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT 0.5 TO
NEAR 2 IN ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT...WITH MOST OF THAT FALLING ACROSS
THE KEWEENAW.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 453 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

A COLD PATTERN IS SETTING IN FOR THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FCST
FEATURING A W COAST RIDGE AND CNTL/ERN TROF. THE RESULTING NW FLOW
INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN A STEADY FEED OF CANADIAN AIR.
WHILE IT WILL BE COLD WITH TEMPS BLO TO MUCH BLO NORMAL AT
TIMES...TEMPS WILL NOT BE UNUSUALLY COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AS
FOR PCPN...THIS IS TYPICALLY A DRY PATTERN FOR THE UPPER LAKES WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SYNOPTIC PCPN EXPECTED. THE COLD WILL HOWEVER
LEAD TO PERSISTENT LES OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. MOST THE LES WILL BE ON
THE LIGHT SIDE...BUT THERE MAY BE THE OCCASIONAL BOOST WITH THE
PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES PROVIDING SOME ENHANCEMENT.

BEGINNING SAT...STRONG SHORTWAVE DRIVING SE THROUGH ONTARIO WILL
PUSH A SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA AS WINDS SHIFT NRLY BEHIND THE
FRONT SAT MORNING. THERE COULD BE THE TYPICAL QUICK BURST OF MDT TO
POSSIBLY HVY LAKE ENHANCED SNOW ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT ONSHORE OVER
MAINLY THE ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA. ALTHOUGH 850MB TEMPS FALL TO
-20 TO -25C BY 00Z SUN...SHARP TRANSITION TO A MORE
DIFFLUENT/ANTICYCLONIC LOW-LVL NORTHERLY FLOW AND A FALLING
INVERSION TO 4KFT OR LOWER WILL LIMIT LES INTENSITY AFTER THE BURST
OF HEAVIER SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FROPA. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SAT
SHOULD BE IN THE 1-2 TO POSSIBLY 3 INCH RANGE. AFTER EARLY HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE TEENS NW TO MID TO UPPER 20S SCNTRL...TEMPS WILL
FALL THRU THE DAY AS BRISK N TO NW WINDS USHER ARCTIC AIR MASS INTO
THE AREA. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO CREATE BLSN IN OPEN AREAS NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR.

SAT NIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT...UPPER MI WILL BE DOMINATED BY ARCTIC AIR
MASS WITH INITIAL NORTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW BACKING WNW BY SUN NIGHT.
INVERSION HGTS PLUNGING BLO 2KFT ESPECIALLY LATE SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY COMBINED WITH LOSS OF DGZ DUE TO THE COLD AIR MASS WILL KEEP
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON THE LIGHT SIDE...GENERALLY 1-2
INCHES TO PERHAPS LOCALLY 3 INCHES PER 12HRS. THERE COULD BE A
POTENTIAL FOR A LAND BREEZE TO PUSH OUT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR FROM
AROUND MUNISING EASTWARD LATE SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING AS PRES
GRADIENT/WINDS SLACKEN. IF THIS HAPPENS...A MESOLOW COULD SPIN UP
OVER SCNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR AND LEAD TO HEAVIER SNOW NEAR THE SHORE
BTWN MARQUETTE AND MUNISING...DEPENDING ON THE CIRCULATION
STRUCTURE. SAT NIGHT COULD BE PARTICULARLY CHILLY OVER THE FAR ERN
CWA IF CLOUDS/LES SHIFT W FROM WINDS BECOMING EASTERLY DUE TO
DRAINAGE OF COLD AIR INTO THAT AREA OFF ONTARIO.

MON...LES WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT OUT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AS WINDS BACK
DUE TO HIGH PRES SHIFTING FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE
OHIO VALLEY. BY MON AFTN...LES MAY ONLY BE AFFECTING THE KEWEENAW.

TUE-THU...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS TRENDING STRONGER WITH THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE DIVING SE OUT OF CANADA FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. LOOKS
LIKE THERE MAY BE THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD -SN ACROSS THE FCST
AREA TUE/TUE NIGHT ASSOC WITH THE SHORTWAVE ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF
MORE SIGNIFICANT LAKE ENHANCEMENT NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE...MODELS INDICATE A VERY COLD SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WITH
850MB TEMPS OF -25 TO -30C MOVING OVER THE AREA WED INTO EARLY THU.
WITH DGZ DRIVEN BELOW LAKE SURFACE AND INVERSIONS AT OR BLO 5KFT
SETTING UP BEHIND SHORTWAVE...LES ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT WED
INTO THU. ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE LIGHT...THE VERY COLD AIR
AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN SMALL SNOWFLAKES THAT ARE VERY EFFECTIVE AT
REDUCING VISIBILITY. LOWEST TEMPS OF THE WEEK SHOULD OCCUR WED/THU.

MODELS SUGGEST TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE BY LATE NEXT WEEK (FRI-SAT) AS
AMPLIFIED WRN RDG/ERN TROF PATTERN BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 727 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

MVFR CEILINGS REMAIN AT ALL 3 SITES THIS MORNING. LOOK FOR SLOW
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AT SAW AND IWD BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS WINDS TURN
MORE OUT OF THE W OR SW PUSHING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OUT OF THE
VICINITY. HOWEVER AT CMX THERE IS A MUCH SMALLER WINDOW OF POTENTIAL
VFR CEILINGS LAT THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING...BEFORE OUR
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXITS TO THE SE IN ADVANCE A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE NEARING FROM THE W THAT WILL BE PUSHING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THE TROUGH OVER NW MN AT 00Z WILL
AND CROSS CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. LOOK FOR -SN
TO SLOWLY INVADE DURING THE EVENING HOURS...AND PICK UP IN INTENSITY
ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT AFTER 05Z.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

GALES CONTINUE TO DIMINISH...AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL COME TO
AN END OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY 15Z TODAY AS LIGHTER
WINDS TAKE HOLD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. THE MAIN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM STRETCHING FROM JUST NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH E
MN AND W WI WILL SINK TO THE OH VALLEY TODAY...WHILE EXTENDING A
RIDGE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. LOOK FOR A TROUGH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
THIS AFTERNOON TO SHIFT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT...AND EXIT INTO
SE ONTARIO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS W AND
CENTRAL CANADA SATURDAY WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE N AND CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. NW GALES OF 35 TO NEAR 40KTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH THE RETURN OF HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. LOOK FOR A GALE WATCH TO BE HOISTED LATER THIS
MORNING. EXPECT A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THIS HIGH ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR SUNDAY MORNING TO SLOWLY WEAKEN MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE OH VALLEY...AND THEN THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES ON TUESDAY. A TROUGH WILL THEN CROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES ON TUESDAY. LOOKING FARTHER OUT...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL
LIKELY RETURN ON WEDNESDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
     LSZ264-266-267.

  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     LSZ266.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...KF



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