Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KMQT 242059
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
359 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

COLD AIR IS RAPIDLY MOVING ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN. MOST PLACES EXCEPT
THE FAR SOUTH AND EAST HAVE TURNED OVER TO SNOW AS 850MB TEMPS
RAPIDLY DROP TO -12C OR LOWER BEHIND THE SFC LOW. OTHER THAN NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR...THE REST OF THE AREA IS UNDER A LULL OF
PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FIRST UPPER DISTURBANCE RAPIDLY MOVING NE
INTO CANADA. HOWEVER...THE SECOND WAVE OF ENERGY CURRENTLY STILL
OVER THE IOWA AND SRN WI WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA THIS EVENING.
MODERATE MID LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH MODERATE
850-700MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING OWED TO THE MID LEVEL DEFORMATION
AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS WI AND ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF SYSTEM SNOW
TO SPREAD ACROSS AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF U.S. 2 IN
MENOMINEE AND DELTA COUNTIES TONIGHT. RAPID UPDATE NWP SUGGEST UP TO
0.50 INCH OF LIQUID TONIGHT /WITH THE LATEST HRRR SUGGESTING UP TO
0.75 INCH/. BUT GIVEN THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING FAIRLY FAST TO
THE NE AND 700MB SPECIFIC HUMIDITY VALUES ARE AT MOST 3 G/KM THIS
EVENING...AM EXPECTING QPF OF SLIGHTLY LESS THAN 0.50 INCH. WITH
SNOW RATIOS RISING TO 10-15:1 THIS EVENING...THIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT
FAR SOUTHERN MENOMINEE COUNTY COULD SEE 4-6 INCHES OF SNOW STARTING
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO OVERNIGHT. AS SUCH...HAVE
OPTED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVY FOR MENOMINEE COUNTY...FOCUSING
ON AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF US 2. AM CURRENTLY THINKING THAT SYSTEM
PCPN WILL DIMINISH OVER A RELATIVELY SHORT DISTANCE TO THE
NORTH...SO AS OF NOW WILL LEAVE DICKINSON AND DELTA COUNTIES OUT OF
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVY.

AS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
PLANNED. AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING...EXPECT BETTER LES BANDS TO DEVELOP IN THE N-NW
FLOW...SIMILAR TO WHAT IS OCCURRING AT IWD RIGHT NOW. CURRENT SNOW
RATIOS ARE FAIRLY LOW...GENERALLY 10-15:1 DUE TO THE SNOW GROWTH
REGION STILL FAIRLY HIGH. AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN...THE
EXPECTATION IS THAT THE SNOW RATIOS WILL BECOME HIGHER...CLOSER TO
20:1. AS SUCH...WILL MAINTAIN ALL LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORIES AS
IS...WITH SIMILAR FORECAST AMOUNTS EXPECTED. STILL EXPECTING STORM
TOTAL OF 5-8 INCHES ACROSS THE GOGEBIC RANGE...4-7 INCHES
KEWEENAW...4-9 INCHES N-CENTRAL UPPER MI...AND 4-7 INCHES EAST OF
MARQUETTE. BLOWING SNOW NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WILL STILL BE A PROBLEM
WITH SOME GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH.

THE LES SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH WHICH MOVES THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. BEHIND THIS TROUGH...WEAK SFC RIDGING BUILDS IN ALONG WITH
BACKING PBL WINDS AND A DRIER AIRMASS ALLOWING FOR ANY REMAINING LES
TO SHIFT TO THE KEWEENAW AND ACROSS THE OPEN LAKE TUE AFTN. AS
SUCH...WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR THE ENTIRE DAY ACROSS THE
KEWEENAW BUT END THE POPS ACROSS THE FAR WEST. WILL MAINTAIN HIGHER
POPS EAST DUE TO W-NW FLOW HANGING ON FOR MUCH OF THE DAY THERE
ALONG WITH DEEPER MOISTURE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

LIGHT TO MODERATE LAKE EFFECT WILL BE ONGOING TO START TUESDAY MORNING
WITH DELTA T/S OVER 15C AND NNW LOW-LEVEL WINDS IN WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING SFC LOW PRESSURE TROUGH. INVERSIONS UP TO 5KFT DOES PUT MOST
OF THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER IN THE DGZ...BUT WITH INCREASING DRYING
AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AS MAIN SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST...EXPECT THE LAKE EFFECT
TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS BECOME ANTICYCLONIC
AS RIDGE MOVES IN. ENDING TIMES FOR CURRENT LAKE EFFECT ADVISORIES
SEEM GOOD BASED ON THE DIMINISHING TRENDS IN SNOW SHOWERS AND WINDS/BLSN.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY ONE SHORTWAVE AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO DIP ESE FM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. SWATH OF SNOW SHOULD ACCOMPANY THIS LOW
PRESSURE AREA AND THAT SHOULD STAY MAINLY SOUTH OF UPPER MICHIGAN.
INVERTED SFC TROUGH WILL BE PRESENT TO THE NORTH OF THE MAIN SFC LOW
AND THAT WOULD EXTEND INTO UPR MICHIGAN. SHORTWAVE LIKELY TO BE THE
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE WEATHER OVR CWA ON WEDNESDAY INTO THANKSGIVING IS
IN THE NORTHERN STREAM AND SLIDES OVER THE AREA FM SOUTHERN MANITOBA
AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO IN THE AFTN. OVERALL...PREFER THE OVERALL IDEA
OFFERED BY THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF COMPARED TO THE GEM-NH AS THAT MODEL
SEEMS TOO PHASED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM AND SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVES WITH THE RESULT THAT THE THE MAIN SFC LOW IS TOO FAR
NORTH. ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW SHARPER TROUGH/CONVERGENCE AND LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW FOR NORTHWEST CWA NOT UNTIL WED NIGHT THEN OVER NCNTRL
CWA ON THANKSGIVING DAY. GFS CONTINUES TO INDICATE WEAKER OVERALL
SYSTEM BUT DOES BRING THE NORTH WIND LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN
EARLIER...MORE SO ON WEDNESDAY AFTN INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN COLD
POOL OF AIR TO NORTH OF THE SFC TROUGH WITH H85 TEMPS DOWN TO AS LOW
AS -20C THERE WILL BE CERTAINLY BE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY INTO THANKSGIVING. IN ADDITION...WILL NEED TO WATCH LAKE
EFFECT OFF LK MICHIGAN IN THE S/SE WINDS AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH.
WINDS BACK STEADILY FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY OVER
NORTHERN LK MICHIGAN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS POINT TO SCT LAKE EFFECT TO
EXPAND OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CWA BY LATE WEDNESDAY AS THE ONSHORE
FLOW IS ENHANCED BY THE LARGER SCALE LIFT AND MOISTURE FM THE NEARING
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE.

SHARPNESS OF SFC TROUGH AND EXTENT OF CONVERGENCE STILL UNCERTAIN
THOUGH WHICH AFFECTS INTENSITY/EXTENT OF THE LES BOTH OFF LK
SUPERIOR AND LK MICHIGAN AND ALSO THE STRENGTH OF WINDS/BLSN NEAR LK
SUPERIOR IN WAKE OF TROUGH. LATEST RUNS OF GFS AND ECMWF KEEP WITH
CONTINUITY COMPARED TO THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS...GIVING NO TREND TO
LATCH ON. THOSE THAT HAVE TRAVEL PLANS WEDNESDAY INTO THANKSGIVING
NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND ALSO OVER MOST OF THE EAST HALF OF UPR MICHIGAN
SHOULD BE AWARE THAT DURING THIS TIME FRAME THERE COULD AT LEAST
LOCALIZED HIGHER IMPACT WEATHER.

HIGH PRESSURE DIVING OVER THE PLAINS WITH RIDGING OVER NORTHERN
ONTARIO EVENTUALLY SHOULD WIN OUT LATER ON THANKSGIVING. THOUGH IF
THE STRONGER TROUGH FM ECMWF IS CORRECT...DIMINISHING TREND IN THE
LAKE EFFECT WOULD BE MORE ON THURSDAY NIGHT. ONCE THE SFC RIDGE
SLIDES EAST ON FRIDAY...UPPER FLOW FLATTENS OUT ALLOWING FOR WARM
AIR ADVECTION TO RAMP UP OVER THE PLAINS. INDICATIONS THAT AT LEAST
ONE SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO BE PROPELLING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. DECENT JET STREAK ALSO FCST OVER THE
PLAINS WHICH SHOULD ENHANCED LIFT ALONG THE TIGHT LOW-LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE. SWATH OF AT LEAST LIGHT SNOW SHOULD RESULT
SOMEWHERE VCNTY OF NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
CONSIDERING THE WAVE THAT WILL GENERATE THE SNOW IS STILL TO EMERGE
FROM UPPER TROUGH OVER NORTHERN PACIFIC VCNTY OF 40N/155W...GFS IS
CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THIS AND GEM-NH IS THERE AS WELL. ECMWF JUST
TRENDED THIS WAY WITH THE 23NOV/12Z RUN. PLENTY OF TIME TO LOOK AT
THE DETAILS BUT DOES APPEAR THAT PTYPE WILL STAY ONLY SNOW AS WARM
AIR AT H85 IS FORECAST TO REMAIN SOUTHWEST OF UPPER LAKES.

MIXED SIGNALS THAT COULD SEE SOME LGT MIXED PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS THE H9-H8 WARM LAYER ARRIVES. COULD SEE SOME DRIZZLE AND
FOG ISSUES TOO THOUGH AT LEAST RIGHT NOW...GFS/ECMWF ARE NOT SHOWING
DWPNTS AS HIGH AS ARE CURRENTLY OCCURRING OVER AREA. REAL MODEL
DIFFERENCES TO CLOSE THE LONG TERM...WITH 23NOV/12Z ECMWF KEEPING
THE WARM SECTOR OVER THE AREA INTO SUNDAY...WHILE THE GFS SHOVES
SHARPER COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY. AT 12Z
SUNDAY...H85 TEMPS VARY FROM -5C OFF THAT RUN OF ECMWF TO -24C
OFF THE GFS. LATEST ECMWF TRENDED TOWARD GFS AS IT NOW SHOWS H85
TEMP THAT SAME TIME OF -16C. USED A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS UNTIL
THE DIFFERENCES ARE RESOLVED...BUT GIVEN THE TREND FM THE LATEST
ECMWF...WENT WITH A BIT HIGHER POPS AND LOWERED TEMPS SLIGHTLY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 239 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON AS LAKE EFFECT
SNOW REDUCES VSBYS TO LESS THAN A MILE AT CMX/IWD. SAW STILL
MVFR...BUT EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO COMMENCE THERE AS WELL WHEN THE
BETTER LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS DEVELOP. IFR CONDITIONS WILL COTNINUE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE IMPROVING TO MVFR ON TUESDAY AS DRIER
AIR MOVES IN. ALL SITES WILL ALSO SEE NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS GUST TO
30+ KT THROUGH THIS EVENING CAUSING SOME BLSN.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

STRONG LOW PRESSURE NEAR SAULT STE MARIE JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY
WILL RAPIDLY MOVE INTO NRN QUEBEC TONIGHT. N-NW GALES WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT...THEN SUBSIDE RATHER QUICKLY TUESDAY
MORNING. GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...ALTHOUGH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SOUTH OF THE LAKE WED
INTO WED NIGHT MAY ALLOW FOR N-NE WINDS TO GUST TO NEAR GALE FORCE.
HIGH PRESSURE BY THE WEEKEND SHOULD ALLOW FOR WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT.


&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ006-007-
     085.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ TUESDAY FOR
     MIZ001>003-009.

  LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ001-003-
     005>007.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ004-005.

  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM CST TUESDAY FOR MIZ012.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ246>251-265>267.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ242>245-263-264.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST /8 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR LSZ162.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MRD
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...MRD
MARINE...MRD






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.