Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 170922
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
522 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 429 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

COMPLICATED WINTER STORM EXITS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. LEADING
SHORTWAVE IS OVER SOUTHWEST WI WITH SFC LOW CURRENTLY NEAR LA
CROSSE WI. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE IS SLIDING ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA. WV
LOOP INDICATES DECENT AREA OF CLOUD TOP COOLING IS FORMING LAST 2
HOURS OVER NCNTRL WI. REGIONAL RADAR INDICATES RIBBON OF HIGHER
ECHOES NOW LIFTING ACROSS SOUTHERN LK SUPERIOR WHILE A GAP HAS
DEVELOPED IN SNOW TO THE SOUTH ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF EASTERN HALF
OF CWA. 10SM VSBY AT 4 AM AT KSAW/KESC/KISQ/KNMM. INCREASING RADAR
ECHOES OVER NCNTRL WI AND NOW INTO PORTIONS OF CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN
ARE TIED TO THE INCREASING DEFORMATION AREA SEEN ON THE WV/IR
SATELLITE. HEAVY SNOW IS NOT WIDESPREAD THOUGH BASED ON LOOK OF
RADAR AND SFC OBS. BASICALLY SEEING POCKETS OF HEAVIER SNOW WITHIN
WIDESPERAD LGT SNOW. STEEPER LAPSE RATES H7-H5 AND ONGOING WARM AIR
ADVECTION AT H925 IS LIKELY LEADING TO THE MORE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF
THE SNOW.

PRIMARY AREA OF SNOW TIED TO THE SHORTWAVE PROBABLY DOES NOT GET
IN HERE UNTIL MID-LATE MORNING. ENVISION A COUPLE HOUR PERIOD OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AS THIS SWINGS ACROSS MAINLY THE CNTRL
PORTIONS OF UPR MICHIGAN. EAST WINDS MAY HELP ENHANCE THE SNOW OVER
THE KEWEENAW SO HAVE THE HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS OF POSSIBLY UP TO 5
INCHES THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY IN THAT AREA. ELSEWHERE...AMOUNTS OVER
THE WEST HALF OF THE CWA WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE.
AREAS OVER EAST HALF MAY SEE LITTLE IF ANY SNOWFALL UNTIL LATE
MORNING AS INITIAL SNOW DRIVEN BY MID-LEVEL FGEN IS TO THE NORTH AND
BEST H7 MOISTURE ADVECTION/WARM AIR ADVECTION AT H925 AND LARGER
SCALE FORCING FM THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ALL REMAIN TO THE WEST.
SINCE MINIMAL SNOW IS EXPECTED FROM HERE ON...WILL GO AHEAD AND CANX
THE ADVY FOR ALGER AND DELTA. CLOSE CALL FOR MENOMINEE COUNTY BUT
PROXIMITY OF HEAVIER BATCHES OF SNOW THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS
JUSTIFIES KEEPING ADVY GOING THERE...EVEN THOUGH THERE HAS BEEN
LITTLE SNOW AT ALL SINCE WEDNESDAY AFTN.

WEST HALF WARNINGS WILL STAY IN TACT...FOR NOW. THIS WAS TOUGH CALL
FOR MARQUETTE COUNTY AS HEAVY SNOW MAY STAY MAINLY OVER FAR WESTERN
COUNTY THROUGH THE MORNING...WHILE ONLY LGT SNOW...IF ANYTHING...IS
OCCURRING IN THE EASTERN SECTIONS. WAS GOING TO DROP DICKINSON TO
ADVY INITIALLY...BUT WITH THE INCREASING DEFORMATION AREA OF SNOW
COMING THROUGH THIS MORNING AND THE BURST OF SNOW EXPECTED AS
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH...WILL LEAVE THAT WARNING GOING FOR NOW.
COORD WITH WFO GRB ON HEADLINES ALONG WI BORDER.

AND FOR TONIGHT....KEPT RISK OF DRIZZLE IN THE FORECAST FOR UPSLOPE
AREAS OF NW AND EVENING EASTERN CWA. PRETTY LOW RISK AS IT LOOKS NOW
THOUGH. POSSIBLE FLURRIES AS WELL. MOISTURE LEFT OVER IS QUITE
SHALLOW WITH DRYING OCCURRING ABOVE 925MB. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY
LIGHT BUT PROBABLY WILL HELP KEEP LOW-LEVELS MIXED JUST ENOUGH TO
PROHIBIT ANY FOG FROM DEVELOPING. TEMPS IN THE 20S FOR MOST AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 521 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

FRI MORNING...MOIST LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW
WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MIN TEMPS RANGING FM THE
UPPER TEENS INTERIOR WEST TO THE UPPER 20S EAST. SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OR  PATCHY FZDZ MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER WNW FLOW UPSLOPE AREAS
INTO FRI MORNING AS SOUNDINSGS SHOW MOISTURE AT OR BELOW THE -10C
ISOTHERM.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...IF CLOUDS CLEAR OUT IN SOME AREAS THU
NIGHT...EXPECT BKN DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT FRI UNDER THE MID LEVEL
TROF AND ASSOCIATED THERMAL TROF WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND -8C.
ALTHOUGH THE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD SUPPORT SOME
FLURRIES...NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. FRI HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
THE 30S NORTH WITH A COLD WIND OFF ICY LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE LOWER
40S S. WITH CLOUDS CLEARING OUT FRI NIGHT...IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT
WITH SFC HIGH PRES STILL OVER THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE
LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH SOME TEENS READINGS OVER THE INTERIOR
COLD SPOTS (ESPECIALLY WEST) WHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTEST.

SAT INTO SUN...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NRN ROCKIES FRI WILL
REACH NRN ONTARIO SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. THE MODELS WERE IN RELATIVELY
GOOD AGREEMNT WITH THE TIMING AND POSITION OF THE SHRTWV
AND THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM PULLING THROUGH UPPER MI
SAT NIGHT. IT LOOKS LIKE LOW LEVEL TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR
MAINLY RAIN WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES SAT NIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH SOME SNOW POSSIBLE JUST AT THE ONSET. MODELS
CONSENSUS SUGGESTS RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO AROUND A HALF INCH...ALTHOUGH
THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS CLOSER TO AN INCH GIVEN
PWAT VALUES NEAR AN INCH. SOME CLEARING IS POSSIBLE SUN AS DRIER AIR
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND GEM SUGGEST THAT THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OVER NRN WI KEEPING PCPN POTENTIAL INTO
THE FAR SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB BACK
INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S SUN AFTERNOON.

MON INTO WED...ALL THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE PATTERN
WILL AMPLIFY AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WEST. AS A RESULT THE
NRN GREAT LAKES WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF THE WARMER AIR AS A RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS. TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB BACK TO NEAR NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR AND LOWER TO MID
50S INLAND WITH MIN READINGS IN THE LOWER 30S. SHOULD BE GENERALLY A DRIER
PERIOD UNDER INFLUENCE OF RIDING...BUT SOME ISOLD LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY EMBEDDED WEAK SHRTWVS PASSING THROUGH IN
THE WNW FLOW ALOFT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1249 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

AS LOW PRES MOVES FROM NE IOWA TO THE UPPER LAKES TODAY...SNOW...MDT
TO HVY AT TIMES...WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE
MORNING HRS. KIWD AND KCMX SHOULD BE UNDER THE MORE PERSISTENT
HEAVIER SNOW. AT KIWD...THIS WILL RESULT IN IFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING ALONG WITH SOME PERIODS OF LIFR. HOWEVER...WITH A
DOWNSLOPE E TO SE WIND...ANY PERIODS OF LIGHTER SNOWFALL WILL PROBABLY
RESULT IN MVFR CONDITIONS. TOWARD DAYBREAK...A PREVAILING PERIOD OF
LIFR/HEAVIER SNOW APPEARS TO BE MORE LIKELY AT KIWD IN ASSOCIATION
WITH UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWINGING NE. AT KCMX...LIFR CONDITIONS
AND PERHAPS OCNL VLIFR WILL BE THE RULE INTO THE MORNING. KSAW WILL
BE ON THE EDGE OF DRIER AIR...SO SNOW WILL NOT BE PESISTENTLY AS HVY
AS AT THE WRN TERMINALS. HOWEVER...UPSLOPE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW MAY
WORK TO HOLD IFR CIGS IN PLACE THRU THE NIGHT EVEN IF SNOW
DIMINISHES. A PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW IS EXPECTED AT KSAW THIS
MORNING WHICH MAY RESULT IN LIFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES. SNOW WILL
QUICKLY DIMINISH W TO E LATE THIS MORNING/AFTN WITH IMPROVEMENT TO
MVFR EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS. VFR SHOULD DEVELOP AT KIWD THIS
EVENING AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 435 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
RESULT IN EAST TO NORTHEAST GALES TO 35 KTS FROM THIS EVENING INTO
THU MORNING AS WINDS ARE ENHANCED DUE TO CHANNELING AND TERRAIN
EFFECTS. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST TO 25 KTS BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE LOW WEAKENS WHILE MOVING OVER ERN LK SUPERIOR.
EXPECT WINDS STAY BLO 20 KTS FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 435 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

COLDER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS RESULTING IN
MINIMAL RUNOFF OF MELTING SNOW AND THUS LITTLE FLUCTUATION IN RIVER
LEVELS. DIMINISHED RUNOFF SHOULD ALSO REDUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL ICE JAMS. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS IN THE FORECAST FOR
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 0.30 TO 1.00 INCHES
OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION...GREATEST OVER THE W HALF OF
UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS PRECIP ADDED TO EXISTING SNOWPACK WITH WATER
EQUIVALENT OF 4-9 INCHES WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF SNOWMELT
RUNOFF/RIVER RISES AND POSSIBLE ICE JAMS ONCE WARMER TEMPERATURES
ARRIVE NEXT WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR MIZ001>005-009>011-084.

  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ012.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT /5 AM CDT/ EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     LSZ162.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...VOSS
HYDROLOGY...VOSS






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