Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 242037
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
437 PM EDT SUN APR 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 PM EDT SUN APR 24 2016

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW CONFLUENT WNW FLOW OVER
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BTWN A NRN STREAM TROF OVER SE CANADA INTO NEW
ENGLAND AND LOW AMPLITUDE SRN STREAM RIDGING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR RAPID CITY. COLD AIR
THAT HAS EXPANDED UNDER THE SE CANADA TROF AND WARM AIR PUSHING INTO
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AHEAD OF SRN STREAM MID LEVEL LOW HAS
RESULTED IN A TIGHTENING THERMAL GRADIENT/BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/GREAT LAKES. PER 12Z RAOBS...850MB TEMPS
RANGED FROM -16C AT MOOSONEE TO -10C AT PICKLE LAKE TO 14C AT THE
TWIN CITIES. UPPER DIVERGENCE IN RIGHT ENTRANCE OF 120+KT UPPER JET
EXTENDING ACROSS NRN ONTARIO INTO SRN QUEBEC IS AIDING PCPN
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...PCPN TODAY HAS BEEN
DISPLACED FARTHER SW THAN INDICATED BY THE MODELS YESTERDAY. THIS IS
ESPECIALLY TRUE OF THE MDT/HEAVY PCPN WHICH HAS STAYED SW AND S OF
THE WI/MI BORDER. ALL DAY...RADAR IMAGERY LOOP HAS SHOWED PCPN
DEVELOPMENT BEING FOCUSED CLOSER TO THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
SRN MN TO ECNTRL WI. AS A RESULT...MEANINGFUL 850/700MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT HAS NOT ABLE TO EXTEND NE INTO UPPER MI. THUS...PCPN
AMOUNTS TODAY HAVE BEEN MUCH LESS THAN ANTICIPATED.

TONIGHT...INFLUENCE OF THE SE CANADA TROF IS FCST TO RELAX
SOME...ALLOWING MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE WRN PLAINS TO SHIFT E TO ERN
SD/SW MN. PROGRESSION OF THESE FEATURES SHOULD ALLOW BETTER MOISTURE
TRANSPORT/LOW-MID LEVEL FGEN TO SHIFT NE INTO UPPER MI. UPPER
DIVERGENCE IN RIGHT ENTRANCE OF UPPER JET ALSO BECOMES MORE
FAVORABLY POSITIONED OVER THE AREA. AS A RESULT...EXPECT
STEADIER/HEAVIER RAIN TO LIFT NE INTO THE FCST AREA TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...GIVEN RECENT MODEL PERFORMANCE IN BEING TOO AGGRESSIVE
LIFTING PCPN N...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE HEAVIER PCPN
STRUGGLES TO SPREAD NE INTO THE FCST AREA.

ON MON...REMNANT OF THE MID LEVEL LOW THAT WILL BE OVER ERN SD/SW MN
MON MORNING WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS IT SHEARS EASTWARD INTO THE
CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE UPPER LAKES. ALTHOUGH WEAKENING...INCREASING
DEEP LAYER FORCING PER QVECTORS AND LINGERING FGEN WILL KEEP PERIODS
OF RAIN GOING THRU THE DAY. MAY SEE A BREAK OR A PERIOD OF
DIMINISHED RAINFALL LATE TONIGHT/MON MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
S...BEFORE DEEP LAYER FORCING INCREASES.

SINCE RAINFALL TODAY WAS NOT NEARLY AS MUCH AS EXPECTED...DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY ISSUES WITH RAINFALL TONIGHT/MON. WILL PROBABLY STILL
SEE SOME PERIODS OF MDT/HVY RAINFALL...BUT AMOUNTS TONIGHT/MON ARE
NOW EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE WHICH SHOULD NOT
POSE ANY WATER ISSUES.

MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER 30S. WITH CLOUDS/FREQUENT
RAIN ON MON...FAVORED THE LOW END OF AVBL GUIDANCE. EXPECT HIGH
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S/LWR 40S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT SUN APR 24 2016

SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH MON NIGHT WILL LEAD TO MAINLY RAIN...BUT
COLD AIR MOVING IN FROM THE N MAY TURN SOME PRECIP TO SNOW OVER NRN
UPPER MI. HOWEVER...PRECIP IS DIMINISHING AND MOVING OUT WHILE THE
COLDER AIR IS MOVING IN...SO ANY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND
SHOULD MAINLY BE ON GRASSY SURFACES.

TUE THROUGH NEXT SUN LOOKS COOL AND DRY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES. 850MB TEMPS HOVERING A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW 0C WILL KEEP
HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S (MAYBE SOME UPPER 50S) AND WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LOWS WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW
FREEZING.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 148 PM EDT SUN APR 24 2016

WITH A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINING S OF UPPER MI THRU MON...EXPECT
PERIODS OF RAIN DURING THIS FCST PERIOD WITH CONDITIONS GENERALLY
SETTLING INTO THE IFR CATEGORY AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. BEST CHC OF
PREVAILING LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LATE TONIGHT/MON MORNING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 437 PM EDT SUN APR 24 2016

WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO AND WEAKENING LOW PRES
TRACKING E ALONG A STALLED FRONT S OF UPPER MI...STRONG E TO NE
WINDS WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THRU MON. OVER THE
WESTERN LAKE WHERE COASTAL CONVERGENCE/FUNNELING ENHANCE E TO NE
WINDS...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THRU MON. STRONGEST WIND
GUSTS...POSSIBLY UP TO 45KT...WILL OCCUR MON AFTN. ACROSS THE REST
OF LAKE SUPERIOR...WINDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE FROM W TO E
TONIGHT...REACHING 20-30KT BY SUNRISE MON. WINDS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH MON NIGHT/TUE MORNING...BUT MORE SO TUE AFTN/NIGHT AS THE
NORTHERN ONTARIO HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE UPPER LAKES. E TO NE
WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 20KT WILL PREVAIL WED. GIVEN THE E TO NE WIND
DIRECTION...WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS
WILL REMAIN UNDER 20KT THU/FRI WITH HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ MONDAY FOR LSZ162.

  GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LSZ263.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON



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