Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 070957
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
457 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

HAVE GONE AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY ISSUED
FOR THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA A LITTLE EARLY. LATEST INDICATIONS FROM
SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW LIMITED WIND CONVERGENCE...ALTHOUGH P59
CONTINUED TO SHOW N WINDS...THEY HAVE GONE CALM AT 19 AND 20Z. THIS
IS SUPPORTED BY SOCIAL MEDIA REPORTS AND WEBCAM IMAGES SHOWING
LITTLE ADDITIONAL SNOW.

MUCH OF OUR ATTENTION IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE FOCUSED ON THE
PROGRESSION OF THE SFC LOW CURRENTLY SET UP ACROSS MUCH OF
SASKATCHEWAN...WITH IS BEING HELPED BY A 500MB WAVE SINKING ACROSS
SASKATCHEWAN AND E MT. BACK TO UPPER MI...A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING FROM SFC LOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS MAINLY THE S HALF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR THROUGH SUNDAY. THE MAIN RESULT OF THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN
PLENTY OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS ARE SPRAWLED ACROSS S CENTRAL
CANADA...AND N PLAINS...AND UPPER GREAT LAKES. CLOSER TO THE LOW
ITSELF...STRONG WINDS HAVE BEEN COMMON WITH SUSTAINED W WINDS AROUND
25-30KTS. AS THE SFC LOW SINKS ACROSS S MANITOBA LATE THIS
EVENING...AND TO W LAKE SUPERIOR BY THE END OF THE DAY SUNDAY...A
MAJORITY OF THE STRONGER WINDS WILL SPREAD WELL TO OUR S. STILL
EXPECT GUSTS NEARING 15-20KTS OVER THE W HALF LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY.

WARMER AIR WILL BE ABLE TO SURGE IN AHEAD OF THE LOW...WITH 850MB
TEMPS RISING FROM -4C W AND -11C E TO A CWA AVERAGED -3C BY DAYBREAK
ON 850MB WIND SW 35-45KTS. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE INITIAL ROUND OF
SNOW WILL BE EXITING CENTRAL-E UPPER MI BY EARLY MORNING...BEFORE
THE DRY SLOT SWEEPS IN. LOOK FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR /850MB TEMPS
AROUND -5C/ AND W FLOW TO BRING IN THE LIKELY SNOW TO THE FAR W BY
THE END OF THE DAY. WAS INITIALLY CONCERNED THAT THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF MIX OF RAIN OR SNOW NEAR IWD AROUND 06Z BEFORE THE MOISTENING
OF THE LOWER LEVELS...AND THEN THROUGH THE DAY AS SFC TEMPS RISE
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. GIVEN THE PROBABILITY...HAVE NOT INCLUDED
IT IN THE FCST...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE LATEST TRENDS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 456 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE MAIN ISSUES FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD CONSISTS OF SEVERAL
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK ALONG WITH A TREND TOWARD COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
BY NEXT WEEKEND.

MONDAY...THE PATTERN MONDAY WILL CONSIST OF AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS WITH DEEP TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
A CLOSED 500MB LOW WILL BE PARKED JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA THROUGHOUT
THE DAY WITH WELL DEFINED SURFACE LOW SLIDING FROM CENTRAL UPPER MI
TO EASTERN UPPER MI BY MONDAY EVENING. THE CAA ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE LOW WILL ALLOW 850MB TEMPS TO DROP FROM -14C/-15C OVER THE WEST
MONDAY MORNING TO AROUND TO -17C/-18C BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. OVER THE EAST HALF...850MB TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -6C/-7C IN
THE MORNING BEFORE FALLING TO AROUND -10C/-11C MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AT THIS POINT...EXPECTING LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO BE
DEVELOPING/ONGOING OVER THE WESTERN U.P. ON NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWEST
UPSLOPE FLOW MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY. THE
EASTERN CWA WILL HAVE SOUTHERLY WINDS MONDAY MORNING BEFORE SLOWLY
BECOMING NORTH BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ONCE THE WIND
SHIFTS TO THE NORTH AND 850MB TEMPS BEGIN TO FALL WILL EXPECT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE EAST HALF BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE
SURFACE LOW SLIDES EAST. INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE
TO AROUND 5-7KFT THROUGH THE DAY OVER THE FAR WEST WITH MUCH LOWER
INVERSION HEIGHTS EXPECTED CENTRAL AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
WOULD LEND SUPPORT TO ENHANCED LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER THE WESTERN
U.P. THROUGH THE DAY. A GOOD DEAL OF THE MOISTURE IN THE CLOUD LAYER
WOULD BE IN THE DGZ AS WELL...HELPING TO BOOST SNOW RATIOS OVER THE
WEST. AT THIS POINT EXPECT TOTALS DURING THE DAY TO BE AROUND 2 TO 4
INCHES FROM THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE KEWEENAW SOUTHWEST TO IRONWOOD.
THE HIGHEST TOTALS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF GOGEBIC AND
ONTONAGON COUNTIES WHERE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD
WHILE THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES EVER SO SLOWLY TO THE EAST NEAR LAKE
HURON BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP ALL OF THE U.P. IN NORTH
TO NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND FLOW. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY COOL
ON CAA INTO THE AREA WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING FROM AROUND
-14C/-15C MONDAY NIGHT TO AROUND -20C/-22C BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL KEEP LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THE FORECAST...HEAVIEST IN THE NORTH
TO NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS. THE BEST SNOWFALL
POTENTIAL/HIGHEST SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
WOULD BE MONDAY NIGHT AS THERE IS STILL A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE IN THE DGZ WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS PROGGED TO BE AROUND 5-
7KFT. LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS WILL
LIKELY COME DOWN QUITE A BIT EVEN THOUGH IT WILL LIKELY STILL BE
SNOWING. THE MUCH COLDER AIR SLIDING IN ALOFT WILL PLACE MUCH OF THE
CLOUD LAYER COLDER THAN THE IDEAL DGZ LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT GIVING MUCH SMALLER SNOWFLAKES.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE 500MB TROUGH WILL REMAIN DUG IN
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH CONTINUED RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER LAKE HURON WILL
BEGIN TO SLIDE TO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND OFF
THE COAST THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP MOST OF THE U.P. IN THE CONTINUED
NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY
BEGIN TO EXIT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...EVEN THOUGH MOST OF THE U.P. WILL STILL SEE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW AND CONTINUED CLOUD COVER. THE CHILLY AIR AT 850MB WILL STILL
BE IN PLACE KEEPING SLR VALUES LOWER THAN WHAT THEY WOULD BE IF THEY
WERE IN THE PREFERRED DGZ. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...MUCH
DRIER AIR IS PROGGED TO SLIDE INTO THE AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EVER SO SLOWLY TO THE EAST. WILL STILL SEE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ONGOING...ON A MUCH DIMINISHED RATE...FOR MORE
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FAVORED AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED...AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES FARTHER TO
THE EAST...THE UPPER PENINSULA WILL BE ON THE INFLECTION POINT
BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND THE RIDGE TO THE WEST. THE GFS/EC ARE HINTING
AT A SHORTWAVE QUICKLY SLIDING THROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WILL PROBABLY GIVE AN UPTICK IN LES FOR THE CWA WITH
ONLY A SMALL AMOUNT OF MOISTURE PROVIDED WITH THE SHORTWAVE. 850MB
TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO FALL EVEN FURTHER DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD POSSIBLY REACHING -30C. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR COLDER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1246 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

EXPECT MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD
AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM S CENTRAL CANADA/NRN PLAINS WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE TAF SITES INTO SUN MORNING.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER NE MN/W LAKE SUPERIOR BY 18Z
SUNDAY...PUSHING MUCH OF THE INITIAL AREA OF SNOW NE IN THE
AFTERNOON. STEADIER SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA
AGAIN SUNDAY EVENING ESPECIALLY WEST AS CONDITIONS COULD LOWER TO
IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

EXPECT SSE WINDS UP TO 25 KTS TONIGHT TO VEER TO THE SW ON
SUN AS A LO PRES APPROACHES THE UPPER LAKES. AFTER THIS LO SLIDES
INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LKS BY MON...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE N AND
INCREASE TO 30-35KTS AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THIS LO
AND HI PRES BUILDING INTO SCENTRAL CANADA. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY
THE LO SHIFTS TO THE E...THE MARGINAL N GALES MAY PERSIST INTO
WED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE. WITH THE INFLUX OF
COLDER AIR AND STRONG WINDS...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL IMPACT THE
AREA FROM MON NIGHT INTO WED AS WELL. THE WINDS AND HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY WILL DIMINISH LATER ON WED/THU AS THE HI PRES EDGES CLOSER TO
THE WESTERN LAKES. THERE MAY BE ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY ON FRI FOLLOWING ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO
     7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ MONDAY FOR MIZ002-009.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...KC


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