Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 021859
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
259 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 421 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATE AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER WRN
NORTH AMERICA WITH A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF ERN NORTH
AMERICA INCLUDING THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS PATTERN HAS RESULTED
IN A WEAK NW FLOW INTO THE NRN LAKES. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM JAMES BAY INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES AND HAS KEPT MUCH OF THE
REGION CLOUD-FREE OVERNIGHT. MAY NEED TO WATCH FOR DEVELOPMENT OF
SHALLOW PATCHY FOG AGAIN EARLY THIS MORNING OVER IRONWOOD AREA
WHERE SFC OBS INDICATE CONDITIONS NEAR SATURATION AND WHERE SFC HIGH
CENTER IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE AT 12Z. ANY FOG THAT DOES FORM WILL
QUICKLY ERODE WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF SUNRISE WITH DIURNAL MIXING.

TODAY...DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH SFC RIDGING ACROSS
THE AREA. A WEAK GRADIENT WILL AGAIN ALLOW PROMINENT LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE LAKE SUPERIOR BREEZE REACHING THE FARTHEST
INLAND. SUNSHINE AND DEEP MIXING WILL RESULT IN TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S INLAND WEST WITH 50S NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AND CU DEVELOPMENT
ALONG LAKE BREEZES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.

TONIGHT...SFC RIDGE OVER THE AREA IN THE EVENING WILL SLIDE SE LATE
TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO TROUGH APPROACHING FROM NRN ONTARIO. ADVANCING
WAA CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ALONG WITH INCREASED MIXING FROM
DEVELOPING SW GRADIENT WIND BTWN DEPARTING RIDGE AND APPROACHING
TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW FALLING TEMPS TO LEVEL OFF OR EVEN RISE A
DEGREE OR TWO TOWARD SUNRISE. HOWEVER...UNTIL THEN GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS IN THE EVENING WL ALLOW MIN TEMPS TO LOWER NEAR
THE FREEZING MARK OVER THE TYPICAL COOL SPOTS INTERIOR WEST AND
CENTRAL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

NAM SHOWS A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 00Z WED THAT
DIGS SOUTHWARD ON WED AND DIGS A DEEP TROUGH THAT AFFECTS THE EAST
COAST 00Z FRI. THE NAM TAKES SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
AND DEEPER MOISTURE IN THE CWA 00Z WED AND MOVES IT OUT ON WED.
ECMWF AND GFS SHOW ABOUT THE SAME THING AS WELL AND WENT WITH A
BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR THIS FORECAST. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO
MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES. DID KEEP PCPN
IN FOR TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING AND STILL LOOKS LIKE A RAIN/SNOW
MIX LATE TUE NIGHT AND WED MORNING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL. KEPT IT
DRY FOR WED NIGHT AND THEN LOOKED LIKE THERE COULD BE SOME SLIGHT
POPS IN THE FAR WEST FOR THU MORNING.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW 500 MB TROUGHS ON BOTH COASTS
AND A RIDGE ACROSS THE PLAINS 12Z FRI. THERE IS ALSO A SHORTWAVE
ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES 12Z FRI THAT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES FRI AFTERNOON AND FRI NIGHT. THIS SHORTWAVE
AFFECTS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SAT AND MOVES INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES ON SUN WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES
ON MON. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FOR THIS
PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE FCST
PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TUE MORNING
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARD THE AREA. IN ADDITION...SOME
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AT IWD AND SAW BY LATE MORNING BUT ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO DROP CONDITION BELOW VFR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 421 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL KEEP WINDS BLO
20 KNOTS. AS RIDGE SAGS SE TONIGHT...WSW WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE
TO AS HIGH AS 20 KT LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO. WINDS WILL BECOME
N TO NW AT AROUND 20 KNOTS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO
AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS OVER THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEHIND THIS LOW. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL DIMINISH WINDS TO
LESS THAN 20KT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS


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