Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 270526

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
126 AM EDT Thu Jul 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 209 PM EDT WED JUL 26 2017

Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb ridge across the southern
U.S. and a closed low over northern CA and another over northern
Ontario. There is also a shortwave over southern Saskatchewan this
morning along  with one over southern MN. The shortwave over
Saskatchewan will head southeast and dig into the upper Great Lakes
on Thu. Deeper moisture moves out this afternoon across the southern
cwa. Next shortwave arrives Thu afternoon with most of the dynamics
and moisture remaining to the west of the area. Will have slight
chance pops along the WI border for Thu afternoon. Overall, did not
make too many changes to the going forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 454 PM EDT WED JUL 26 2017

Models suggest a mid/upper level ridge will prevail across the wrn
CONUS from late this week into early next week with weak downstream
nw flow through the northern Great Lakes and a transition to more
zonal flow by tue/wed. A number of weak shortwaves are likely to
move through the region but with limited moisture
inflow/availability, and weak dynamics, a mainly dry period is
expected. Temperatures will also remain near or slightly above
seasonal averages.

Thursday night, the strongest upper level div associated with a
compact shortwave and left exit of the 250-300mb jet dropping into
the nrn Great Lakes is expected to remain just to the north of the
cwa. Since forecast MLCAPE values ahead of this feature also remain
minimal, no pcpn was mentioned in the forecast although some
leftover sprinkles might survive across Lake Superior into the wrn

Friday, high pressure will build into the area bringing in
relatively cool dry air on weak ne low level flow. Flow off of Lake
Superior will keep temps near 70 north while readings over the south
climb to around 80.

Saturday through Monday, The GFS/GEFS bring the next significant
chance for pcpn into the area late Sunday into Sunday night with a
nw flow shrtwv trough and a weak sfc cold front. The ECMWF maintains
stronger mid level ridging into the area with any light shra/tsra
remaining well to the north. There may be a better chance for mainly
diurnal shra/tsra Monday as the front stalls near Upper Michigan.
However, pcpn should still be isold/sct at most.

Tue-Wed, higher pcpn chances are expected by late tue into wed as a
stronger shortwave and mid level trough moves into nrn Ontario that
will drag another front into Upper Michigan.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 123 AM EDT THU JUL 27 2017

VFR conditions with light winds will prevail through the forecast
period as high pressure builds over Upper Michigan. A few light
rain showers are possible at KIWD later this afternoon. However,
opted to hold off on including mentions within the TAF as the
better chances look to be south.


.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 209 PM EDT WED JUL 26 2017

Winds look to stay below 20 knots through the entire forecast

Upper Michigan...
Lake Superior...
Lake Michigan...


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