Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 250857
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
457 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 457 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

PRELIMINARY SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

MIXED PRECIP IS WEAKENING AS IT EXITS N WI AND PUSHES INTO UPPER MI.
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHORTLY AFTER 08Z SHOWS A CONVECTIVE LOOK TO
THE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS STRETCHING FROM SHAWNO THROUGH THE S PORTION
OF THE DOOR PENINSULA. WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK THIS AND UPDATE THE
ONGOING FCST AS NEEDED. KEPT THE SPS GOING EARLY THIS MORNING TO
HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR WET SLUSHY SNOW DURING THE MORNING
COMMUTE...AS WELL AS AROUND 2-3IN OF SNOW. THIS STILL LOOKS
REASONABLE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

THE FIRST WAVE OF PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE QUICKLY SHIFTED NORTHEAST
OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...LEAVING THE TRAILING SHORTWAVE AND
SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHING SOUTHWEST ACROSS NORTHERN/WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR AT 00Z THURSDAY. EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
OCCURRING ALONG THIS TROUGH (WETBULB ZERO HEIGHTS SUPPORT A MIX
INITIALLY)...LARGELY OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND OVER THE
KEWEENAW. THE SURFACE-850MB TROUGH WILL THEN SLOWLY SINK SOUTHEAST
ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO MUCH COLDER AIR
TO MOVE INTO THE AREA UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW. 850MB TEMPS WILL DROP
FROM -6C AT 00Z THURSDAY TO -11C BY 12Z AND -17C BY 00Z FRIDAY. THIS
COLDER AIR WILL LEAD TO ENHANCEMENT OF THE SNOW INITIALLY...BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO PURE LAKE EFFECT DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS THE
DEEPER MOISTURE DEPARTS. THE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE VEERING THROUGH
THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT PERIOD (WESTERLY AT 00Z THURSDAY AND N-NNW BY
12Z THURSDAY)...LIMITING THE FOCUS OF THE TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT
INITIALLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. AS WINDS PERSIST OUT OF THE NORTHERLY
DIRECTION THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY...THE TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT WILL
BECOME FOCUSED AND HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE NORTHERLY WIND
UPSLOPE AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE OPEN WATER ON LAKE SUPERIOR
(ESSENTIALLY AROUND GOGEBIC/ONTONAGON/MARQUETTE COUNTIES). WHILE
THIS WILL LEAD TO A FAVORABLE PERIOD OF LAKE ENHANCED AND UPSLOPE
SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...THE SNOW AMOUNTS WILL
DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY WINDS VEER ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL FOLLOW THE
GENERAL CONSENSUS ON THE TIMING...WITH THE BEST LAKE ENHANCED QPF
OVER THE KEWEENAW IN THE EVENING AND SPREADING SOUTH TO
GOGEBIC/ONTONAGON/MARQUETTE/BARAGA COUNTIES DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SNOW RATIOS WILL START UP AT OR BELOW 10-1 BEFORE TRENDING UP
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THURSDAY AS THE COLD AIR SURGES INTO
THE AREA AND PUTS THE FOCUS OF THE FORCING CLOSER TO THE DGZ. ALL IN
ALL...HAVE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY OVER THOSE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FAVORED AREAS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES (AND
POTENTIALLY UP TO 7 INCHES OVER THE PORKIES). IN ADDITION TO THE
SNOW...THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY GUSTY ON THURSDAY
(25-30KTS AND SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER CENTRAL LAKE
SUPERIOR)...WHICH WITH THE FLUFFIER NATURE OF THE SNOW BY THAT TIME
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME BLOWING SNOW ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR
SHORELINES.

AS DRY AIR FROM THE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IN MANITOBA NOSES INTO
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...EXPECT THE LAKE
EFFECT TO BEGIN TO DIMINISH AND WILL START LOWERING POPS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THE TREND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE DOES
APPEAR TO BE A FAVORABLE PERIOD OF THE CLOUD BEING WITHIN THE DGZ
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING...WHICH WILL ATTEMPT
TO OFFSET THE DRIER AIR AND LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS...BUT DON/T
EXPECT THE ACCUMULATION TO BE TOO SIGNIFICANT (ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS
AROUND 1 INCH ON THURSDAY NIGHT).

AS THE HIGH CONTINUES SOUTH THROUGH MINNESOTA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND INTO WISCONSIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON...A RIDGE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AND BRING AN END TO ANY LINGERING LAKE
EFFECT FRIDAY MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AS THE RIDGE LINGERS OVER THE AREA AS THE HIGH
MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. AFTER BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SATURDAY/S TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TOWARDS
NORMAL.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO A SHORTWAVE COMING ON SHORE IN THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES AND THEN EITHER THROUGH ONTARIO OR THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. OVERALL...MODELS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...THEY JUST VARY
ON THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. THE STRENGTH OF THAT RIDGE WILL DETERMINE IF THE WAVE
DIVES FARTHER SOUTH AND THROUGH THE REGION OR STAYS TO THE NORTH.
FEEL CONFIDENT ON THE TIMING TO SHOW MORE DETAIL IN THAT PORTION OF
THE FORECAST...BUT WILL KEEP POPS STILL IN THE HIGH CHANCE
CATEGORY. WILL KEEP PCPN IN THE FORECAST INTO SUNDAY AND EVEN
SUNDAY NIGHT...AS THERE ARE HINTS OF A SECONDARY WAVE SWEEPING
THROUGH THE AREA. THE PRECIP TYPE STILL IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN...BUT
THE INITIAL WAVE SHOULD FALL AS SNOW AND THEN MIX WITH OR TURN TO
RAIN ON THE BACK SIDE. THAT POTENTIAL FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY...BEFORE COLDER AIR MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION AND SWITCHES
ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION BACK TO SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT.

THOSE SHORTWAVES WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND ALLOW
AN UPPER RIDGE TO NOSE EAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON
MONDAY BEFORE FLATTENING ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER
AIR ALOFT TO WORK INTO THE AREA STARTING ON MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY
ON TUESDAY (925MB TEMPS RISING TO AT LEAST 6C). THAT SHOULD PUSH
HIGHS TO OR ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR MUCH OF THE CWA FOR THE LAST DAY
OF MARCH (NORMAL IS 40-45). LOOKING FARTHER AHEAD...THE PATTERN
LOOKS TO TURN A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT
WEEK...AS THE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT ON A STRONGER WAVE MOVE EAST
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1208 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

DRY AIR REMAINING OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES WILL INITIALLY DELAY THE
ONSET OF HEAVIER PCPN BUT THE DYNAMICS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR
SNOW TO QUICKLY SPREAD OVER THE AREA AS LOW PRES LIFTS TOWARD LAKE
MICHIGAN. IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD REACH KIWD BY 10Z AND KCMX BY 14Z
AND THEN IMPROVE BACK UP TO MVFR BY LATE WED MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. KSAW HAS BEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER SNOW CLOSER TO TRACK
OF SFC LOW SO EXPECT VSBY TO DROP TO LIFR SHORTLY AFT 12Z AND THEN
IMPROVE BACK TO MVFR BY 16Z AS SYSTEM LIFTS QUICKLY E. A SECONDARY
SFC TROUGH MOVING INTO UPPER MI WED EVENING WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
-SHSN WITH MAINLY MVFR CIG/VSBY.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 457 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS N MN AND S LAKE MI WILL MERGE OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON...AND SHIFT E ACROSS ONTARIO BY THE END
OF THE DAY AT WHILE DEEPENING. A LINGERING TROUGH ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL EXIT TO THE SE THURSDAY MORNING. A FEW N GALE FORCE
GUSTS TO 35KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MAINLY N AND CENTRAL LAKE
SUPERIOR THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING THROUGH THE
DAY.

EXPECT A LOW OVER MANITOBA ON THURSDAY TO BRIEFLY SETTLE ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY...AND CONTINUE TO THE
OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM HUDSON BAY
TO S MANITOBA SATURDAY NIGHT WILL THEN SWING ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO
AND LAKE SUPERIOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND INTO QUEBEC SUNDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER PERIOD OF GUSTS OF 35 KTS TO NEAR 40KT GUSTS OF THE SW TO W
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AND LINGER
OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR OUT OF THE NW AT 35KTS SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...- NONE -
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...KF


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