Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 220745
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
345 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

CURRENTLY...THE REGION IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A 500MB
RIDGE...WITH THE AXIS OF THIS RIDGE JUST W OF THE CWA. THERE IS A
WEAK SFC LOW NEAR MPX...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING E/SE FROM THERE.
ALSO...A WEAK SFC TROUGH IS DRAPED ACROSS THE WRN CWA...WITH A PLUME
OF HIGHER THETA E VALUES IN THE SAME AREA. SOME WEAK SHORTWAVES HAVE
BEEN NOTED ON WV MOVING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE...WITH ONE
CURRENTLY OVER THE SRN CWA.

A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER SRN UPPER MI UNDER THE SHORTWAVE
AND IN THE AREA OF HIGHER THETA E VALUES/SFC TROUGHING. ALTHOUGH
UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST DUE TO THE TYPICAL CONVECTIVE UNCERTAINTIES
AND THE WEAK PATTERN MAKING FINE DETAILS HARDER TO PREDICT. THINK
THAT BEST PRECIP WILL BE LOCATED WITH THE WEAK SFC TROUGH AND THETA
E PLUME AS IT MEANDERS OVER WRN UPPER MI...WHERE SLIGHTS TO LOW
CHANCE POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST. DO NOT THINK THERE IS A RISK OF ANY
SEVERE STORMS AS INSTABILITY WILL BE TOO LIMITED N OF THE SFC WARM
FRONT...WHICH STAY WELL TO OUR S.

FOG EARLY THIS MORNING HAS NOT WORKED OUT AS STRATUS HAS BEEN
FAVORED IN MOST LAND AREAS...SO REDUCED FOG MENTION IN THE FORECAST
OVER LAND.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

...WARM AND HUMID THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND POTENTIALLY
UNSETTLED...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND...WITH CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR
NEXT WEEK.  SEVERE THREAT GENERALLY LOW THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

PATTERN SUMMARY/FORECAST:  IMPORTANT FEATURE OF NOTE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON IS STRENGTHENING TROUGHING ACROSS WESTERN NOAM...WITH
ADDITIONAL UPSTREAM ENERGY ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST POISED
TO DIVE INTO THIS TROUGHING...DEEPENING IT FURTHER WITH SUBSEQUENT
RIDGING FORMING DOWNSTREAM OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  SOME DEGREE
OF THIS RIDGING SHOULD HOLD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL
ENERGY ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA KICKING SOME...IF NOT ALL OF THE
TROUGHING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS EASTWARD...WITH THIS SERVING TO
FLATTEN THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE AS THE PATTERN BECOMES INCREASINGLY
PROGRESSIVE BY THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

MODEL AGREEMENT/CONFIDENCE: LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS WELL-AGREED UPON
THROUGH MONDAY WITH DIVERGENCE BEYOND THIS...PARTICULARLY RELATING
TO THE AMOUNT OF THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH THAT EJECTS EASTWARD...AND
THUS THE TIMING/DEGREE OF MIDWEEK COOLING.  ECMWF IS KNOWN TO HOLD
ON TO WESTERN TROUGHING TOO LONG...AND IT IS SHOWING A SIMILAR TREND
IN THIS FORECAST CYCLE...WITH LARGER RUN TO RUN DISCONTINUITY THAN
THE GFS.  WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS HAVING GOOD ENSEMBLE SUPPORT FROM
THE NAEFS...WILL LEAN CLOSER TO IT/S EVOLUTION THROUGH THE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD.

MIDDLE RANGE /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/:

MUCH LIKE THE TONIGHT PERIOD...EXPECT THAT WITH THE PRIMARY SURFACE
FRONTAL ZONE REMAINING SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH
SATURDAY...THAT CONVECTIVE CHANCES THROUGH AT LEAST THIS PERIOD WILL
REMAIN QUITE LOW.  THE AIRMASS WILL BE WARM AND HUMID...AND
THUS...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW POP UP THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY...AND
HAVE INCLUDED ISOLATED WORDING HERE...MAINTAINING A DRY FORECAST AT
THIS TIME FOR SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...WESTERN TROUGHING BEGINS TO
ENCROACH ON THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST...WITH FALLING HEIGHTS
AND CONTINUED WARM/HUMID AIR ARGUING FOR AN UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES /FOR WESTERN AREAS/.

AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION.  850 TEMPERATURES WOULD
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID /OR EVEN UPPER/ 80S...BUT EVEN SCATTERED
CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW THIS. HAVING GONE A LITTLE DRIER THAN PREVIOUSLY WITH TODAY/S
FORECAST...HAVE BOOSTED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH
FORECAST READINGS NOW ON EITHER SIDE OF 80.

LONG RANGE /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/:

UNSETTLED WITH AN EVENTUAL TRANSITION TO COOLER CONDITIONS DURING
THIS PERIOD.  GIVEN THE MODEL DISCUSSION ABOVE...EXPECT THAT ANY
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL THE END OF THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. THUS...WILL CONTINUE WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
MONDAY/TUESDAY...GRADUALLY TRENDING BACK TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGY TOWARDS
THE END OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS CONFIDENCE IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE WEEK GROWS.  WITH AN EXPECTED
SLOWER COLD FRONTAL ARRIVAL...STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH
OF THIS PERIOD...WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A FAIRLY UNSETTLED WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN A LIGHT MAINLY UPSLOPE E-SE WIND FLOW
WILL LEAD ONCE AGAIN TO ANOTHER NIGHT OF FOG AND STRATUS AT THE TAF
SITES. LOOK FOR KIWD AND KSAW TO LOWER TO LIFR LATE THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT WITH KCMX LOWERING TO VLIFR AND AIRFIELD MINS.
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE ON FRIDAY WITH DIURNAL HEATING. EXPECT
KCMX TO IMPROVE TO IFR/LOW END MVFR BY EARLY FRI AFTERNOON WITH KIWD
AND KSAW IMPROVING TO MVFR BY LATE FRI MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. BEST
CONVECTION SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF TAF SITES INTO MAINLY CENTRAL WI
ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF WARM FRONT OVER THAT AREA. THERE COULD BE AN
ISOLD SHRA BUT MAINLY OVER THE WRN TAF SITES WHERE I INCLUDED A
MENTION OF VCSH. LINGERING MOISTURE WILL ALSO LOW STRATUS AND FOG TO
AGAIN REDEVELOP AT MOST TAF SITES FRI EVENING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS BELOW 20KTS.
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP SUN AND SUN NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWEST OF LAKE SUPERIOR...WHICH MAY LEAD TO WIND
GUSTS OVER 20KTS. HIGHEST WINDS EXPECTED MON BEHIND A COLD
FRONT...WITH SW WINDS GUSTING TO 25KTS EXPECTED. FOG SHOULD CONTINUE
ON LAKE SUPERIOR INTO NEXT MONDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...ARNOTT/APX
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...TITUS





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