Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 312320
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
720 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A PROMINENT MID/UPEPR LEVEL
RIDGE FROM NM INTO THE GREAT LAKES RESULSTING IN SW FLOW FROM THE
CNTRL ROCKIES INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER SRN MANITOBA WAS LIFTING TO THE NE. AT THE SFC...SSW
FLOW PREAVILED ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND WRN ALKES BETWEEN HIGH
PRES OVER THE CNTRL LAKES AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE SE
CORNER OF MANITOBA INTO ERN SD. MOST OF THE FOG FROM EARLIER TODAY
HAS BURNED OFF EXCEPT OVER THE FAR SE ALONG LAKE MI NEAR KISQ.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILED WITH TEMPS AWAY FROM LAKE
MI INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

TONIGHT...SEVERAL MODELS SUGGEST SOME SHRA/TSRA MAY DEVELOP FROM MN
INTO NW WI OR WRN LAKE SUPEROR AS AN AXIS OF HIGHER MOISTURE AND THE
TAIL OF THE MANITOBA SHRTWV SLIDES TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...THE AMOUNT
OF CAPPING AND ONLY WEAK MID LEVEL QVECTOR CONV...EXPECT ANY
COVERAGE TO BE MINIMAL AND REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE CWA. ALTHOUGH
BNDRY LAYER WINDS WILL BE HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT...EXPECT PATCHY/AREAS
TO REDEVELOP OVER MAINLY THE SE HALF.

TUE...PCPN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS THE MOISTURE AXIS AND WEAK
TROUGH SAG INTO UPPER MICHIGAN. ALTHOUGH SOME PCPN MAY BE POSSIBLE
IN THE MORNING...EXPECT BETTER SHRA/TSRA CHANCES BY AFTERNOON WITH
INCREASED DAYTIME HEATING AND SUPPORT FROM DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARIES. TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES INTO THE 1K-2K
J/KG RANGE. HOWEVER WITH 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES ONLY AROUND 25-30 KNOTS
AND WITH WBZ HEGHTS NEAR 13K FT...SEVERE TS CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL.
THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. EVEN WITH
INCREASED CLOUD COVER...TEMPS SHOULD AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 80S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

MORE 80S ARE ON THE WAY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. THE 500MB RIDGE
SET UP FROM W TX-LOWER MI...EXTENDING UP THROUGH HUDSON BAY WILL
FLATTEN OUT ONLY SLIGHTLY...BEFORE REBOUNDING OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.

WE WILL HAVE A LONG STRETCH OF TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE
80F...PROBABLY 8 DAYS IN TOTAL. IT WILL LIKELY END UP THE LONGEST
STRETCH IN 2 YEARS...AND TIED FOR THE LONGEST STRETCH IN 9 YEARS.
THE LAST TIME WE HAD MORE THAN 7 DAYS IN A ROW WAS IN 2006.

ALTHOUGH A NEARING SFC TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP LOW POPS OVER
MAINLY E LAKE SUPERIOR...IT WILL WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME PLENTY OF DRY
AIR. PW VALUES DO INCREASE TO 1.7 TO NEAR 2IN E.

ANY WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY OR EVEN
SUNDAY NIGHT UNTIL MONDAY. THE GFS IS A BIT SLOWER THAN THEN ECMWF.
THE APEX OF THE 500MB RIDGE WILL SHIFT W ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND STATES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND...WITH SW FLOW MOVING INTO OUR AREA. TIMING OF THE NEXT
500MB LOW OR SIGNIFICANT WAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE W TROUGH IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER...INITIAL LOOKS SHOW THAT NEXT TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY COULD GIVE US A BETTER CHANCE OF SOME COOLER
AIR...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE SHORT LIVED.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 720 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT THE SITES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
REST OF THE PERIOD. A WEAK TROUGH WILL NEAR THE WESTERN SITES LATE
TONIGHT AND COULD PRODUCE SOME SPRINKLES...WITH KSAW ONCE AGAIN
SEEING THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY GROUND FOG.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015
EXPECT SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...AS THE AREA IS ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE
OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
THERE WILL BE A BRIEF INCREASE IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
TONIGHT...UP TO 20KTS...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH NW
ONTARIO TO SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY BY TUE MORNING. AT THIS TIME...THE
MARINE LAYER SHOULD KEEP THE WINDS IN CHECK...BUT COULD SEE HIGHER
GUSTS TO 25 OR EVEN 30KTS AT A FEW OF THE HIGHER PLATFORMS TOWARDS
ISLE ROYALE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT WINDS TO BE BELOW 20KTS FOR THE REST
OF THE PERIOD.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB



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