Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 211947
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
347 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

THE LATEST FEW SATELLITE IMAGES TELL THE STORY...WITH DRIER AIR
WORKING IN FROM THE NW. UPSLOPE CONDITIONS INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR
HAVE RESULTED IN A SLIGHTLY SLOWER EROSION OF THE MVFR
CEILINGS...BUT THE TREND CONTINUES. DEW POINTS HAVE ALREADY FALLEN
INTO THE 30S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH DRY COOL AIR ANTICIPATED
OVERNIGHT. A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND RAPIDLY DIMINISHING WINDS WILL
RESULT IN QUICKLY FALLING TEMPS WITH PATCHY FROST DEVELOPING INLAND
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. HOISTED A FROST ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL
UPPER MI...WITH TEMPS OF 30-36F. PW VALUES WILL FALL TO AROUND 35-45
PERCENT OF NORMAL. HOWEVER...INCREASING WAA OVER THE FAR W AND
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE OVER THE FAR W SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING
TOO LOW FOR GOGEBIC AND ONTONAGON COUNTIES. MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW
THE INVERSION OVERNIGHT MAY PRODUCE PATCHY FOG OVER MAINLY S
PORTIONS OF UPPER MI. THE BEST CHANCE FOR FOG SHOULD STAY S OF THE
WI BORDER.

850MB TEMPS REBOUNDING FROM AROUND 1C THIS AFTERNOON TO 5-10C BY
MID-LATE AFTERNOON AND WESTERLY SFC-850MB FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
PUSH BACK INTO THE 60S TOMORROW. THIS WILL MEAN A RETURN OF NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE SFC HIGH OVER THE MI MS VALLEY EXTENDING A
RIDGE UP THROUGH CENTRAL ONTARIO AT 12Z MONDAY WILL BE SUPPRESSED S
THANKS TO A SFC TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACROSS
ONTARIO AND W HUDSON BAY. THE INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL AGAIN
RESULT IN GUSTY CONDITIONS OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...OUT OF THE
W GUSTING 20-25KTS BY MID-LATE MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO START TONIGHT AND
POTENTIALLY CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THE UPPER TROUGH THAT
IS BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO PORTIONS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AND TODAY WILL BE WELL TO THE EAST OF THE
CWA BY MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW A SURFACE RIDGE TO SLIDE OVER
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT FROM A HIGH CENTERED IN THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. THE RIDGE WILL QUICKLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST ON
MONDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO
IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ANOTHER WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA
MONDAY MORNING...BUT WILL ONLY PRODUCE A FEW PASSING MID CLOUDS. THE
STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER FAR NORTHEAST ONTARIO ON MONDAY
EVENING WON/T HAVE ANY AFFECT ON THE AREA BUT WILL WILL TRY TO SLIDE
A DECAYING COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY NIGHT.
WITH THE DRY AIR ALREADY IN PLACE FROM THE HIGH (NOW CENTERED OVER
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY)...ONLY INFLUENCE FROM THE DECAYING FRONT WILL
BE A SLIGHT VEERING TO THE WINDS.

TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WILL THEN HAVE ITS WEATHER CONTROLLED
BY AN UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL HAVE SHIFTED EAST OUT OF THE WESTERN
CONUS. THIS UPPER RIDGE AND A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NEW ENGLAND
STATES WILL LEAD TO DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
THE LAST THIRD OF SEPTEMBER. THE MAIN ITEM OF CONCERN DURING THIS
PERIOD WILL BE THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
NEVADA. THIS UPPER LOW WILL GRADUALLY MAKE ITS WAY NORTHEAST INTO
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY AND THEN BECOME SHEARED OUT
OVER MINNESOTA ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE DRY AIR
IN PLACE...THINK ANY PRECIPITATION WILL STRUGGLE TO SHIFT EAST INTO
THE CWA...SO HAVE TRENDED THE EXISTING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THAT
PERIOD DOWN AND TO THE WEST. ONCE PART OF THE UPPER LOW IS SHEARED
OUT...THE SOUTHERN HALF WILL ROTATE BACK SOUTHWEST AND OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. THUS...EXPECT THE DRY
CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE UNDER THE
PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS ON UPSLOPE N WINDS IS GIVING WAY TO A CLEARING
SKY THIS AFTERNOON. STILL EXPECT SAW TO HOLD OUT IN THE MVFR
CATEGORY FOR ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS...AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE
NW. N WINDS GUSTING 20-25KTS OVER N UPPER MI WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH
THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE BECOMING AROUND 5KTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT.
DESPITE DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE W AND SW THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM LATE
MONDAY ON. THIS TIME THEY WILL BE OUT OF THE W AND STRONGEST AT CMX
WHERE GUSTS NEARING 20-25KTS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. THIS WILL BE
THANKS TO ANOTHER SFC LOW PUSHES ACROSS CENTRAL/N ONTARIO...BECOMING
SQUEEZED BETWEEN LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID MS VALLEY AND N
MANITOBA/W HUDSON BAY.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

GUSTS GENERALLY LESS THAN 25KTS WILL BE THE RULE FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. STILL HAVE GUSTS OF
25-30KTS AT THE HIGHER PLATFORMS OF STANNARD ROCK AND GRANITE ISLAND
INITIALLY. THE LOW OVER SW QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE E INTO THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE W MOVES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH WILL MOVE INTO THE OH
VALLEY MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY...WHILE KEEPING A RIDGE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SHIFT OVER NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP LAKE SUPERIOR UNDER
A RIDGE THROUGH THE SAME TIME PERIOD.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ TO 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/
     MONDAY FOR MIZ004-005-010>013-084.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...KF





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