Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 152356
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
756 PM EDT Sun Oct 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 339 PM EDT SUN OCT 15 2017

After seeing 40-50mph wind gusts along the Lake Superior shore from
roughly Marquette to the east this morning and early afternoon,
along with waves up to 16 ft and coastal erosion and lakeshore
flooding, conditions are subsiding and will continue to do so this
evening.

A shortwave will move through tonight, which should only act to
enhance any lingering showers over NE Upper MI and perhaps lead to
some isolated to scattered showers over the Keweenaw.

Partly cloudy with highs in the mid 50s for Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 437 PM EDT SUN OCT 15 2017

Models suggest that a slowly progressive pattern will prevail with
the ern mid/upper level trough giving way to ridging by the end of
week over the ern CONUS and trough over the west. The trough will
approach by the weekend, bringing pcpn chances back into the
region. During the transition a couple of stronger shortwaves will
move through srn Canada in the wrly flow bringing sfc
troughs/fronts through the nrn Great Lakes. After a relatively
cool day Monday with max temps near seasonal averages, temps will
remain above normal for the rest of the week into the weekend.

Monday into Monday night, As the cool air departs, 850 mb temps
around 0C will still support max readings in the mid 50s. Despite
the cooler air over the region, the airmass will be dry enough so
that mainly mid/high clouds are expected with the WAA pattern ahead
of the shrtwv and sfc low moving into nrn Manitoba. Light
precipitation and stronger forcing with the system will remain north
of Lake Superior.

Tue-Fri, temps in the 60s tue into wed with mild sw flow and 850 mb
temps to around 14C(mixing closr to 900 mb though) will only fall
off slightly by Thursday behind a weak cool front. Even milder
conditions are expected by Fri with 850 mb temps to around 16C with
sw flow into the region. Temps should climb at least into the upper
60s with some lower 70s, especially for downslope flow locations
near Lake Superior.

Sat-Sun, Models were in good agreement that pcpn chances will
increase by Saturday night into Sunday as the positive tilt mid
level trough and sfc trough moves out of the plains. However,
confidence in timing and potential amounts at this time frame is
still low.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 756 PM EDT SUN OCT 15 2017

VFR conditions will prevail at KIWD/KCMX/KSAW thru this fcst period.
Winds will become gusty at times on Mon, especially at KCMX where
gusts to 20-25kt will occur.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 339 PM EDT SUN OCT 15 2017

As the system exits the region, winds will continue to diminish to
around 15 knots tonight; however, expect the winds to ramp back up
to 20 to 30 knots Monday into Tuesday morning. No gales seen after
that as winds look to remain in the 15 to 25 knot range mostly.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Titus
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...Rolfson
MARINE...Titus



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