Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 250750
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
350 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

...A SUNNY BUT BREEZY DAY...

WV LOOP AND CURRENT OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A STRONG SHORTWAVE PASSING
BY OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO. SFC LOW AROUND 990MB IS OVER FAR NORTHERN
ONTARIO WHILE INITIAL COLD FRONT IS CROSSING LK SUPERIOR AND WESTERN
CWA. CANADIAN AND NWS MQT/APX RADARS SHOW AREA OF RAIN EXPANDING
OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR BUT BULK OF THE RAIN/COLDER CLOUD TOPS
ALOFT IS STAYING CLOSER TO TRACK OF SHORTWAVE...AND WILL MISS UPR
MICHIGAN. CLOUDS BEGINNING TO CLEAR OUT AND BY DAYBREAK IT SHOULD BE
CLEAR FOR ALL BUT FAR EAST CWA. ANOTHER PUSH OF STRATOCU CLOUDS AT
H9-H85 SEEMS DESTINED TO DROP ACROSS AT LEAST NORTHWEST CWA BY LATE
THIS MORNING...WITH CLOUDS THEN DIMINISHING THROUGH THE AFTN WITH
THIS OVERALL VERY DRY AIRMASS EVENTUALLY WINNING OUT. TEMPS TODAY
IN THE 50S OVERALL...THOUGH SOME LOW 60S COULD OCCUR OVER PARTS OF
CNTRL AND EAST CWA INTO THE AFTN. TEMPS MAY BECOME STEADY MID-LATE
AFTN FOR THOSE AREAS...OR PERHAPS FALL SLIGHTLY AS 950-925MB COOL
AIR ADVECTION BEGINS KICKING IN.

WINDS REMAIN THE MAIN ISSUE FOR TODAY. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ON
SOUTHWEST FLANK OF ONTARIO LOW WILL BE BATTLING LACK OF STRONG
INSTABILITY AS COOL AIR ADVECTION IS MARGINAL THOUGH MOST OF THE
DAY. DECENT WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC WITH 925MB WINDS 35-43 KTS...
STRONGEST OVER KEWEENAW AS WELL AS EASTERN LK SUPERIOR AND ADJACENT
CWA. ELSEWHERE 25-30 KTS ARE IN THE MIXED LAYER. GOOD EFFICIENT
MIXING DUE TO THE MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS AND THE TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN WIND GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH FM KEWEENAW TO
SHORELINE OF ALGER AND LUCE COUNTY...WITH 25-35 MPH GUSTS ELSEWHERE.
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR MOST OF THE DAY INTO EARLY EVENING ALONG
LK SUPERIOR AND OCCUR MAINLY FROM LATE MORNING INTO LATE AFTN OVER
INLAND AREAS. LACK OF ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT TO WINDS AND THE MARGINAL
UNSTABLE PROFILE LEADS TO ONLY A MARGINAL SETUP TO SEE ADVY LEVEL
WINDS ANYWHERE IN CWA. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION HAZARD IN
HWO/EWHO...BUT NOT ISSUE ANY KIND OF WIND ADVY FOR LAND AREAS.
DUE TO HIGHER WAVES AT END OF FETCH OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR COULD
SEE MINOR BEACH EROISION AND WILL ALSO MENTION THIS IN HWO.

WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH WIND TO KEEP TEMPS FM
FALLING OFF TOO MUCH. PUT LOWEST TEMPS IN MID 30S OVER FAR WEST CWA
IN GOGEBIC COUNTY CLOSER TO SFC RIDGE AXIS. OTHERWISE...MIN TEMPS
SHOULD STAY IN THE UPR 30S OR LOWER 40S WITH THE CLOUDS AROUND AND
AS LIGHT BUT STEADY NW WIND PERSISTS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

NAM SHOWS A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY 12Z
SUN FOLLOWED BY A TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW. THE RIDGE BUILDS INTO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 00Z MON. THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON MON AND MON NIGHT. NAM BRINGS IN SOME MOISTURE AND 850-500
MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE SUN NIGHT AND THIS MOVES OUT ON MON BEFORE
BOTH RETURN FOR MON NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH DRY WEATHER FOR SUNDAY
AND THEN BRING IN POPS SUN NIGHT INTO TUE WITH CHANCE POPS
PREVAILING MOSTLY. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE
GOING FORECAST. DID KEEP IN SOME SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDER FOR THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z TUE. THIS TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST 12Z WED.
MORE ENERGY DROPS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z THU WITH A DEEP
TROUGH BEING CARVED OUT OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA 12Z FRI WITH COLD
AIR OVER THE AREA. ACTIVE PATTERN THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH A
COOLING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO BELOW NORMAL TOWARDS THE
END OF IT. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH
NO DRY PERIODS SEEN. HAD TO ADD IN SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS WED THROUGH FRI AS ECMWF AND GFS SHOW 850 MB
TEMPERATURES COOLING DOWN ENOUGH TO CAUSE LAKE EFFECT PCPN WITH 850
MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW -6C AND WITH LAKE SUPERIOR
TEMPERATURES DOWN TO 6C...THAT WOULD JUST BE ENOUGH FOR LAKE CLOUDS
AND WITH TROUGHING IN THE AREA...LAKE ENHANCED PCPN. ENDED UP GOING
CHANCE POPS IN NORTHERLY LAKE EFFECT SNOWBELT PRONE AREAS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 152 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD
AS A SURGE OF DRY AIR WILL FOLLOW A COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. NOCTURNAL INVERSION AND STRONGER WINDS JUST OFF THE
SFC WILL LEAD TO LLWS OVERNIGHT AT KSAW. WITH A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT
AND CLEAR SKIES/SUNSHINE RESULTING IN GOOD MIXING...WINDS TODAY WILL
BE GUSTY TO 25-35KT AT ALL TERMINALS...STRONGEST AT KCMX.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WEST TO EAST OVER
NORTHERN ONTARIO...SW TO W GALES OVER 35 KTS ARE EXPECTED INTO
THIS EVENING...MAINLY CENTRAL AND EAST LK SUPERIOR. NW WINDS 20 TO
30 KTS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING IN WAKE OF THE LOW AND BEFORE
SFC RIDGE CROSSES THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD
WITH WINDS LESS THAN 20 KTS WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE...SE WINDS
INCREASE TO 30 KTS OVER MAINLY EAST LK SUPERIOR ON MONDAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. ONCE THIS LOW MOVES TO THE EAST
OF LK SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY...WEST WINDS TO 30 KTS AND POSSIBLY UP
TO GALE FORCE OF 35 KTS WILL DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT NORTHWEST AND STAY UP TO 30 KTS INTO
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 25 KTS BY
THURSDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     LSZ265>267.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLA







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