Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 250729

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
229 AM EST Sat Nov 25 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 400 PM EST FRI NOV 24 2017

WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a mainly zonal mid/upper level
flow across the nrn CONUS with a shortwave trough into n cntrl MN.
At the surface, a 986mb low was located just sw of James Bay with a
cold front extending into nw WI. Radars indicated some sct -shra and
virga into cntrl Upper Michigan with greater rain coverage
upstream from wrn Lake Superior and far wrn Upper Michigan into nw
WI, along and just behind the front.

Tonight, expect the band of rain showers, supported by 800-600 mb
fgen, to advance across the cwa this evening (between 21z-03z) with
the dry slot moving in overnight. Although there may a brief
period of moderate rain, overall amounts should be light,
generally a tenth of an inch or less. CAA will increase overnight
with 850 mb temps dropping to around -10C by 12z. Forecast wet-
bulb zero heights suggest that pcpn will be mainly snow by the
time any lake effect pcpn develops. Instability (water temps near
5C) will be marginal for LES by with favorable 850-750 mb moisture
and inversion heights around 5k ft, some light accumulations,
under an inch, will be possible for nw flow favored locations.

Saturday, the LES will gradually diminish as inversion heights drop
to around 3k-4k ft. However, 850 mb temps to around -13C over ern
Lake Superior will support more widespread -shsn with the potential
for accumulations around an inch. Otherwise, temps will drop closer
to seasonal averages with highs in the lower to mid 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 229 AM EST SAT NOV 25 2017

Nam has a 500 mb ridge across the Rockies which moves into upper
Great Lakes on Mon. A trough then moves into the northern Rockies
00z Tue and into the northern plains 12z Tue. Looks pretty quiet for
this forecast period with pcpn staying mostly to the northeast of
the area. Did bump up highs for Monday a couple degrees.

In the extended, GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb trough over the upper
Great Lakes 12z Tue with a cold front moving through the area on Tue
with a brief shot of cold air. This trough moves into New England
12z Wed with a shortwave ridge over the area. Another trough moves
into the upper Great Lakes 12z Thu with cold air moving through
again briefly before zonal flow moves in for Fri into Sat. Brief
glancing blows of cold air for this forecast period, but
temperatures look to stay above normal.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1235 AM EST SAT NOV 25 2017

Stratus behind a cold front has resulted in MVFR conditions at the
TAF sites this evening. Lowest conditions have been at KCMX in an
upslope westerly wind flow behind the front. Behind the front, winds
will become gusty at each of the TAF sites with the strongest winds
(to 30 mph) at the more exposed KCMX site. Light lake effect snow
will be possible late tonight into early Saturday morning with
continued MVFR conditions. Expect improvement to VFR Sat afternoon
at all sites.

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 400 PM EST FRI NOV 24 2017

West winds 20 to 30 knots veering nw with a few gale force gusts to
35 knots are expected tonight. Additional gale force gusts of 35
knots are possible on colder northwest flow into the area late
tonight and Saturday. Winds are expected to remain in the 20 to 30
knot range through at least mid weak.

Upper Michigan...
Lake Superior...
Lake Michigan...


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