Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 310745
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
345 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

SHORTWAVES/SFC TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY THROUGH FRI
WILL LEAD TO ROUNDS OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN NOW (ALREADY OBSERVING PRECIP OVER THE WRN CWA
AND NW OF THE CWA) AND THE END OF THE SHORT TERM. GUSTY WINDS WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING...BUT WILL INCREASE TO A LITTLE WEAKER
MAGNITUDES FRI. WITH LITTLE TO NO PRECIP IN MOST PLACES OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...MIN RH VALUES IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S INLAND ALONG
WITH AFOREMENTIONED WINDS WILL LEAD TO HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS AGAIN FRI.

OVERALL PREDICTABILITY OF PRECIP IS LOW...WITH GREATER CONFIDENCE IN
OTHER PARAMETERS OF THE FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

NAM SHOWS A STRONG 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. 12Z SAT WITH A
TROUGH OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. NAM CONTINUES TO HAVE NORTHWEST
UPPER FLOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING NEARBY. WHAT THIS WILL MEAN IS A COOLING
TREND. THERE WILL BE SOME CHANCE POPS IN FOR SUN AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. DID NOT MAKE
TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST OVERALL.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
U.S. 12Z MON WITH A DEEP TROUGH OVER ONTARIO INTO THE EASTERN U.S.
THIS DEEP TROUGH REMAINS STATIONARY 12Z TUE WITH LITTLE CHANGE INTO
WED AND THU. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MON AND THEN SLOWLY MOVES
SOUTH AND STALLS OUT WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS
WELL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD
AS LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS REMAINS DRY. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY WNW TO 20-
25KT WITHIN A FEW HRS AFTER SUNRISE WITH STRONGEST WINDS AGAIN AT
THE MORE EXPOSED KCMX TERMINAL. A PAIR OF DISTURBANCE MOVING ESE
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL GENERATE ISOLD TO SCT SHRA/TSRA
DURING THIS FCST PERIOD...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS.
CONFIDENCE IN PCPN IS HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A VCSH MENTION AT ALL
TERMINALS FOR AT LEAST SOME PORTION OF THE FCST PERIOD. KSAW WILL
PROBABLY HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR VCSH DUE TO BETTER ALIGNMENT OF
INSTABILITY AND THE TRACK OF DISTURBANCES. IF A SHRA OR A TSRA
AFFECTS ANY OF THE TERMINALS...A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

A LOW SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY WILL SWEEP A SERIES OF
TROUGH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS AND REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 20KT RANGE INTO THE START
OF THE WEEKEND.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...TITUS



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