000
FXUS63 KMQT 092117
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
417 PM EST MON DEC 9 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 551 AM EST MON DEC 9 2013

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS STILL SHOWING A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS RESULTING IN WSW FLOW FROM THE PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. THERE ARE SEVERAL SHORTWAVES OF NOTE FOR THE SHORT
TERM.

ONE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS LAKE MI INTO LOWER MI AND ITS
ASSOC SFC LOW PRODUCED LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE CWA LAST NIGHT INTO THE
EARLY MORNING. MOST OF THE AREA RECEIVED GENERALLY NO MORE THAN AN
INCH OF SYSTEM SNOW...ALTHOUGH SOME LOCATIONS ALONG LAKE MI LIKELY
RECEIVED 2 TO LOCALLY 4 INCHES OF SNOW DUE TO LAKE ENHANCEMENT OF
SNOW OFF LAKE MI. MQT RADAR WAS SHOWING A MORE PROMINENT BAND OF
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW FROM NEAR COOKS/MANISTIQUE AREA NORTH TO
SHINGLETON IN THE PAST FEW HOURS ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE THIS BAND
MAY BE WEAKENING NOW AS BEST FORCING FOR ENHANCEMENT APPEARS TO BE
LIFTING EAST WITH THE SHORTWAVE. DUE TO ISOLATED NATURE OF THIS
BAND DECIDED TO ONLY KEEP WINTER WX ADVISORY GOING FOR ONLY
SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY THRU 14Z AND DROPPED ADVISORY FOR MNM-DELTA AND
LUCE WHERE SNOW HAS BEEN VERY LIGHT AND APPEARS TO BE
DIMINISHING.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE MAIN SHORTWAVE OF CONCERN FOR THIS FCST PD
IS IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM OVER THE NRN PLAINS AND WILL BE PUSHING
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE
NEXT INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN CWA
BEHIND A COLD FRONT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. MODELS INDICATE 850
MB TEMPS FALLING TO -20 TO -23C BY THE AFTERNOON COMBINED WITH
INVERSION HEIGHTS RISING TO 8-10KFT AND UNIDIRECTIONAL WESTERLY
WINDS RESULTING IN FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL CONV AND THE LIKELYHOOD OF A
DOMINANT LES BAND IMPACTING THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE SHRTWV...EXPECT WINDS WOULD VEER FROM WSW TO MORE DUE
W...PUSHING THE DOMINANT BAND SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH FROM NEAR EAGLE
RIVER TO CALUMET/MOHAWK AND TO HOUGHTON THIS AFTERNOON AND TO POINTS
SOUTH OF HOUGHTON THIS EVENING. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL GREATLY
DEPEND ON HOW LONG THE HEAVIER BAND LINGERS IN ANY ONE
LOCATION...ACCUMULATIONS OF 6-10 INCHES REMAIN VERY LIKELY LATE THIS
MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...BLUSTERY WEST WINDS OF
20-30MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 35 MPH WILL PRODUCE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW AND NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS WHERE THE DOMINANT
BAND SETS UP. HOWEVER...SINCE MOST OF THE 00Z AND 06Z LOCAL AND
REGIONAL HIGHER RES MODELS STILL INDICATE THAT THE DOMINANT BAND
WILL BE GRADUALLY MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HRS...FELT RELUCTANT TO UPGRADE
TO A WARNING AS AMOUNTS MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED DUE TO TRANSIENT
NATURE OF BAND. I AM ALSO A LITTLE CONCERNED THAT BEST ENHANCEMENT
POTENTIAL FOR DOMINANT LES BAND WILL ARRIVE AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE
AND JUST BEFORE WINDS BEGIN TO VEER FROM WSW TO W SO THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT THE  DOMINANT BAND MAY BE STRONGEST OUT OVER THE WATER
BEFORE IT REALLY MOVES ONSHORE TO THE KEWEENAW. DUE TO ABOVE
REASONING...DECIDED TO KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING BUT KEPT IN STRONGER
WORDING OF OCCASIONAL HEAVY SNOW AND CONSIDERABLE BLOWING
SNOW/LOCALIZED WHITEOUT CONDITONS IN WSW STATEMENT UNDER THE DOMINANT
BAND...STRESSING DIFFICULT TRAVEL AT TIMES DUE TO POOR VISIBILITY AND
BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW. SOME OF THE HIGHER RES MODELS PARTICULARLY THE
LOCAL WRF-ARW INDICATE THAT DOMINANT COULD GET PUSHED SOUTH OF
HOUGHTON FOR A TIME THIS EVENING AND PERHAPS EVEN AFFECT NE ONTONAGON
AND NRN BARAGA COUNTIES BEFORE SHIFTING BACK ACROSS THE NRN PORTION
OF KEWEENAW OVERNIGHT AS WINDS BACK WSW AGAIN IN RESPONSE TO SFC RDG
BUILDING IN FM THE WEST.

THE REST OF THE CWA WILL FEEL THE EFFECT OF THE BITTER COLD AIR
FLOODING THE REGION. MAY FLIRT WITH WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA OF
25 BLO ZERO OR COLDER TONIGHT OVER THE WEST HALF INTERIOR OF THE CWA
AS ACTUAL TEMPS PLUMMET INTO THE DOUBLE DIGITS BLO ZERO.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 PM EST MON DEC 9 2013

COLD TEMPERATURES AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF THE
LONG TERM FORECAST.

A SHORTWAVE AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDING ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AND SOUTHERN UPPER MICHIGAN TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING
WILL PROVIDE A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR TO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEFORE SINKING SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE FAIRLY
CONSISTENT ON A SURFACE TROUGH LINGERING OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW TUESDAY EVENING AND THEN
SHIFTING SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS LINGERING TROUGH WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO A LAKE INDUCED LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE FAR EASTERN
LAKE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND REMAINING INTO THURSDAY AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OVER SOUTHERN UPPER MICHIGAN.

OVERALL...CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT
SNOWFALL INTO THURSDAY...WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING FROM AROUND -21C
AT 00Z WEDNESDAY TO -24C ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS STRONG OVER
LAKE INSTABILITY (LAKE TEMPS AROUND 2-3C) WILL LEAD TO FAIRLY HIGH
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS (12/15KFT WEST/EAST) AND LAKE INDUCED CAPE
VALUES EXCEEDING 800-1000J/KG FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LES
WILL BE AIDED ON TUESDAY NIGHT BY LINGERING MOISTURE FROM THE
CLIPPER SYSTEM...ALLOWING THE STRONGER BANDS TO REALIZE THE HIGHER
INVERSION HEIGHTS. BUT AS THAT DEEPER MOISTURE DEPARTS THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...EXPECT A TRANSITION TO PURE LAKE
EFFECT AND THE LOSS OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE MAY LIMIT THE WEAKER
BANDS FROM REACHING THE HIGHER INVERSION HEIGHTS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW
PARAMETER REALLY HIGHLIGHTS LUCE COUNTY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING...BEFORE VALUES BEGIN TO FALL TO MORE MODERATE
LAKE EFFECT VALUES DURING THE DAY AS THE 850MB TEMPERATURES COOL.
THE REST OF THE AREA LOOKS TO SEE LOW END MODERATE VALUES DUE TO THE
AMOUNT OF COLD AIR. AS FOR SNOW RATIOS...HAVE GENERALLY KEPT VALUES
AROUND 20-1 AT THIS POINT...SINCE MUCH OF THE FORCING WILL BE AT
THE HIGH END OR ABOVE THE DGZ. THINK THE HIGHEST RATIOS WILL BE
INITIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES AND SHOVES
THE DGZ TOWARDS THE SURFACE. THOSE HIGHER RATIOS MAY BE LIMITED
SOMEWHAT BY STRONGER WINDS RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT LEADING TO
FRACTURING OF THE DENDRITES TO GO ALONG WITH MAINLY COLUMNS. BUT
THOSE WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN SLIGHTLY INTO WEDNESDAY AND ALLOW THE
LIMITED DENDRITES TO REMAIN TOGETHER.

WITH CONDITIONS APPEARING GOOD FOR LES...WINDS WILL DETERMINE THE
BAND PLACEMENT. EXPECT THE LAKE EFFECT TO BE IN THE WESTERLY FLOW
AREAS TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD...BUT AS THE SURFACE TROUGH
DIVES SOUTHEAST...EXPECT BANDS TO SHIFT SOUTH AND SETUP IN THE MORE
WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST WIND LOCATIONS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
EXPECT THE HEAVIEST SNOW OVER NORTHERN LUCE COUNTY WHERE THERE WILL
BE INCREASED CONVERGENCE FROM THE TROUGH AND HAVE THE LONGEST FETCH
ACROSS THE LAKE. SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING THAT THE DOMINATE
BAND MOVES SOUTH INTO NORTHERN LUCE COUNTY...BUT LOOKS TO BE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND THEN REMAINING THROUGH MUCH OF
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE FINALLY SHIFTING NORTH ON
THURSDAY DUE TO A RIDGE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN U.P.  WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW AND A PROLONGED EVENT (CURRENT FORECAST OF
1-2FT IN FAR NE LUCE COUNTY BY THURSDAY MORNING)...OPTED TO ISSUE A
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FOR LUCE COUNTY. ALGER COUNTY IS A LITTLE
MORE UNCERTAIN...AS IT DEPENDS ON HOW FAR SOUTHWEST THE BAND SINKS.
BEST OPPORTUNITY WOULD BE NEAR GRAND MARAIS. NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE
WITH THE SOUTHWEST PUSH...WHILE MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS KEEP WINDS
OUT OF THE WNW TO WESTERLY DIRECTION. THUS...HAVE LEFT THEM OUT OF
ANY PRODUCTS AT THIS TIME AND HOPEFULLY WE/LL BE ABLE TO PIN DOWN
THE SOUTHWEST EXTENT IN THE NEXT 24HRS.

FARTHER WEST...EXPECT THE HEAVIEST SNOW IN THE WNW FAVORED AREAS
FROM ONTONAGON THROUGH THE KEWEENAW. WITH HE SURFACE TROUGH LIKELY
SETUP ACROSS ONTONAGON COUNTY...WOULD EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME SORT
OF DOMINATE BAND AND THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THERE. AT THIS
POINT...HAVE AMOUNTS AN INCH OR TWO UNDER WARNING CRITERIA AND WILL
NOT ISSUE A WATCH. SHOULD BE A SOLID ADVISORY AND THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCATIONS TO REACH WARNING AMOUNTS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT GENERAL MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW NORTH OF THE
TROUGH OVER THE KEWEENAW WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA ACCUMULATIONS. SINCE
THERE IS A WARNING OUT FOR THOSE AREAS...WILL HOLD OFF NOW AND
 LET MID SHIFT PUT UP ADVISORIES ALL AT ONCE.

WITH THE HIGH MOVING INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A RIDGE
SLIDING INTO SOUTHERN UPPER MICHIGAN LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND THROUGH THE NIGHT...EXPECT WINDS TO BACK TO MORE OF A WESTERLY
(OR EVEN SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR). THIS
WILL PUSH THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BACK TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND INTO THURSDAY. THE FOCUS WILL REMAIN OVER THE KEWEENAW AND THE
FAR NORTHEAST PART OF LUCE COUNTY DURING THAT TIME. INVERSION
HEIGHTS DO LOOK TO LOWER DURING THIS PERIOD TO 5-7KFT...SO
WOULD EXPECT THE INTENSITY AND AMOUNTS TO DIMINISH AS THE DGZ
LOWERS TO THE SURFACE. FINALLY...ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER LOOKS TO
MOVE THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING BUT WILL
LIKELY BE SOUTH THAN THE ONE TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.

IN ADDITION TO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW...COLD TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY...WHICH WILL LEAD TO SOME CONCERNS
FOR WIND CHILL ADVISORIES ON TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND
 THEN POTENTIALLY 10 DEGREES COLDER ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS
SOME CONCERN FOR CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME RISING TEMPERATURES TOWARDS
MORNING. WIND CHILLS WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH DECOUPLING WILL OCCUR
AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY SEE WINDS STAYING UP MORE WITH THE
TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
THE TROUGH OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS WILL PRODUCE
WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE -20S OVER THE INTERIOR WEST AND A
DECENT CHANCE OF A WIND CHILL ADVISORY. ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE
SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE MOVING IN AND LEADING TO LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT. THESE LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR LOWER TEMPS (IF THE
CLOUDS STAY TO THE SOUTHWEST) BUT ALSO LIMIT WIND CHILL VALUES...BUT
STILL EXPECT THEM IN THE -25 TO -34 DEGREE F RANGE.

FOR FRIDAY TO NEXT MONDAY...THE GENERAL TREND IN THE MODELS IS FOR
THE UPPER TROUGH TO SHIFT EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...LEADING
TO SOME MODERATION OF THE COLDER AIR AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
WESTERLY. THEN...AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS THIS WEEKEND...ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE
SOUTHEAST IN THE NORTHERN STREAM AND LEAD TO ANOTHER PERIOD OF COLD
WEATHER FOR SUNDAY AND THE START OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS STILL VARY ON
THE EXACT SOLUTION AND TIMING AS THE DISTURBANCES PHASE OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS...BUT THE GENERAL IDEA IS A SURFACE TROUGH
SETTING UP OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES (STRETCHING NORTHWEST
FROM THE LOW MOVING UP THE EAST COAST) FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND
BEFORE DIVING SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH...
850MB TEMPS AROUND -22C AND LIKELY LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS
SUPPORTS HAVING SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST FAVORED LOCATIONS NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS NORTHERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME LES FOR
AREAS THAT HAVE BEEN MISSED BY THE LES AT THE END OF LAST WEEK AND
THIS WEEK. SINCE THERE IS CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS THIS
WEEKEND...WILL TREND POPS UP IN THE NORTHERLY WIND AREAS FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND BEGIN TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO/EHWO.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY BUILD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE HINTS OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
DIVING INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR MONDAY NIGHT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 117 PM EST MON DEC 9 2013

KIWD...EXPECT MVFR CIGS AND -SN IN WSW FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THIS AFTERNOON.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR THIS EVENING AS WINDS BACK MORE SW.
MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW RETURN LATE TONIGHT WITH APPROACH OF
NEXT DISTURBANCE THE NOTRHERN PLAINS.

KCMX...IFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO LIFR/VLIFR VSBY IN MODERATE TO
HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW THIS AFTERNOON AS WSW WINDS VEER TO THE W AND
BECOME GUSTY. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS BUT SHOULD
IMPROVE BY LATE EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AGAIN TO MVFR LATE
TONIGHT AS THE HEAVIER LES BANDS SHIFT NORTH OF THE AREA.

KSAW...MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED THAT WILL LIFT BACK TO
VFR AS A DISTUBANCE MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA TUE MORNING WILL BRING ANOTHER
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 551 AM EST MON DEC 9 2013

A SERIES OF TROUGHS WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEK AND BRING MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR GALES. THE FIRST TROUGH WILL
PASS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON VEERING WINDS
TO THE WEST AND INCREASING THEM TO GALES TO 35 TO 40 KNOTS ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTER A DECREASE TO 20 TO
30 KNOT SOUTHWEST WINDS TUESDAY MORNING...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY AND COULD PRODUCE
GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS BEHIND IT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE WESTERLY WINDS WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS
FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
CONTINUED MODERATE TO HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL PUSHES OF ARCTIC AIR ACROSS THE
LAKE. ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN UNDER 20 KNOTS THROUGH SATURDAY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ001-003.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MIZ007.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ245-
     248>251-265>267.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ244-245-248>251-
     264>267.

  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ TUESDAY
     FOR LSZ162-240>244-263-264.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     LSZ241>243-246-247.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR LSZ263.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ221-248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS