000
FXUS63 KMQT 050858
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
358 AM EST WED MAR 5 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EST WED MAR 5 2014

SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING IS
HELPING TO DRIVE SOME LIGHT LES OVER NRN MARQUETTE COUNTY. THAT LES
SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH BY SUNRISE TODAY AS DRY AIR FILTERS INTO THE
AREA AND THE SHORTWAVE EXITS. A 1040MB SFC HIGH IS CURRENTLY
CENTERED JUST SW OF JAMES BAY...WITH A 500MB RIDGE ALONG THE
MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER. THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE TO SRN QUEBEC BY 12Z
THU AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE NRN PLAINS STATES. THE RESULTING
DRY AIR WITH THE SFC HIGH WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY TODAY AND
TONIGHT. SLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS.

FOR TEMPS...GIVEN LOWS THIS MORNING OF 0F TO -20F...COLDEST INTERIOR
W AND INTERIOR E...AND MIXING TO AOB 900MB...HIGHS TODAY WILL
GENERALLY BE 10F-20F EVEN WITH 850MB TEMPS OF -10C /7-8C HIGHER THAN
YESTERDAY/. 850MB TEMPS INCREASE ANOTHER 3-5C TONIGHT WITH THE
INCREASING SLY FLOW AS CLOUDS MOVE INTO NWRN PARTS OF THE
CWA...WHICH WILL RESULT IN LOW TEMPS TONIGHT OF 5F TO -7F...COLDEST
INTERIOR CENTRAL AND E.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2014

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL 500MB RIDGE ALONG
WITH A SURFACE RIDGE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY FLOW TO INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF UPPER MICHIGAN.
THE CWA WILL REMAIN DRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE MORE CONCENTRATED
AREA OF MOISTURE AND LIFT REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD REACHING NORTH
DAKOTA BY 12Z THURSDAY. THE LOW WILL BECOME MORE ELONGATED BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE MAIN 500MB UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT LAGS TO THE
WEST. THIS WILL LIKELY CHANGE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BECOMES MORE IN SYNC WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH. THIS WILL ALLOW
THE SURFACE LOW TO INTENSIFY ONCE AGAIN OVER ONTARIO AND NORTHERN
LAKE SUPERIOR. THE BEST FORCING IS PROGGED TO BE CLOSER TO THE
LOW...THEREFORE...KEEPING THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL OVER LAKE SUPERIOR
AND ONTARIO THURSDAY NIGHT. VERY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY
FRIDAY...THE LOW WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR INCREASED MOISTURE AND FORCING TO SPREAD SNOWFALL ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA.  AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF THE AREA WOULD
SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW WITH A FEW TOTALS APPROACHING 4 INCHES
OVER THEN NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. AS PREVIOUS SHIFT HAD MENTIONED
WARMING TREND IS STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME WITH 850MB
TEMPS WARMING FROM AROUND -10C TO -15C WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO -2C TO 0C
BY FRIDAY. THIS WOULD ALLOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO THE 20S
WITH A FEW LOW 30S POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION KEEPING THE OVERALL QUIET WEATHER TREND
GOING. MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WILL ALSO REMAIN LIMITED...THEREFORE
THE ONLY REAL IMPACT WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THIS TIME
PERIOD. THE ONE CAVEAT HERE IS THAT THE GFS TRIES TO WRAP IN A
FAIRLY SHARP SHORTWAVE SATURDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER...THE GEM/EC ONLY
HAVE ONLY SLIGHT TROUGHING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.
THIS LENDS MORE SUPPORT TO KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE U.P.
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE EXTENDED...THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD MODEL
SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE...LENDING BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST. THE GFS PLACES A SURFACE LOW OVER THE AREA WHILE THE
EC PLACES HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE U.P. AT THIS POINT HAVE DECIDED TO
STICK WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS. EVEN WITH THE DISCREPANCIES IN
THE MODELS IT DOES APPEAR AS THOUGH WARMER AIR SHOULD BE WORKING IN
FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM EST WED MAR 5 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. A
NEARLY COMPLETELY ICE COVERED LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD MINIMIZE OR
ELIMINATE POTENTIAL FOR ANY STRATOCU OR LIGHT LES FORMATION UNDER
DEVELOPING NE FLOW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EST WED MAR 5 2014

EXPECT WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 20KT THROUGH TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL THEN BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT AND
THU AHEAD OF A LOW PRES TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE W. OVER ERN LAKE
SUPERIOR...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30KT. THE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE
UPPER LAKES FRI...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW. WHILE THERE MAY
BE A PERIOD OF 15-25KT WINDS BEHIND TROUGH...WINDS WILL DIMINISH
INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...TITUS