Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 171938
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
338 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

CURRENTLY...THERE IS A WEAK 500MB LOW OVER THE SRN MANITOBA/ONTARIO
BORDER...WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH S OF THE LOW OVER NRN MN. THE
REMNANTS OF THE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OVER THE
LAST DAY ARE WEAKENING RAPIDLY. THE SFC LOW HAS FILLED TO 1021MB AND
IS JUST S OF THE CWA WHILE THE 850MB LOW IS OVER WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR...WITH SOME DEFORMATION FORCING LIGHT SNOW IN WEAKENING
BAND OVER THE NERN ARROWHEAD OF MN AND WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. A MAJORITY
OF THE SNOW FROM THE SYSTEM HAS PUSHED NE OF THE CWA...LEAVING SOME
FOG/DRIZZLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM IRONWOOD TO COPPER HARBOR.

DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT
DUE TO AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOMING
WLY...LEADING TO UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE W /AND
SOMEWHAT THE NE/. DRIER AIR AND DAYTIME MIXING FRI MORNING WILL LEAD
TO IMPROVING CONDITIONS.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS INTERIOR W TO THE MID
20S NEAR THE GREAT LAKES SHORES. HIGHS ON FRI WILL BE IN THE MID 30S
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE MID 40S SOUTH CENTRAL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 521 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

FRI MORNING...MOIST LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW
WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MIN TEMPS RANGING FM THE
UPPER TEENS INTERIOR WEST TO THE UPPER 20S EAST. SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OR  PATCHY FZDZ MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER WNW FLOW UPSLOPE AREAS
INTO FRI MORNING AS SOUNDINSGS SHOW MOISTURE AT OR BELOW THE -10C
ISOTHERM.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...IF CLOUDS CLEAR OUT IN SOME AREAS THU
NIGHT...EXPECT BKN DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT FRI UNDER THE MID LEVEL
TROF AND ASSOCIATED THERMAL TROF WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND -8C.
ALTHOUGH THE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD SUPPORT SOME
FLURRIES...NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. FRI HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
THE 30S NORTH WITH A COLD WIND OFF ICY LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE LOWER
40S S. WITH CLOUDS CLEARING OUT FRI NIGHT...IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT
WITH SFC HIGH PRES STILL OVER THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE
LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH SOME TEENS READINGS OVER THE INTERIOR
COLD SPOTS (ESPECIALLY WEST) WHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTEST.

SAT INTO SUN...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NRN ROCKIES FRI WILL
REACH NRN ONTARIO SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. THE MODELS WERE IN RELATIVELY
GOOD AGREEMNT WITH THE TIMING AND POSITION OF THE SHRTWV
AND THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM PULLING THROUGH UPPER MI
SAT NIGHT. IT LOOKS LIKE LOW LEVEL TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR
MAINLY RAIN WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES SAT NIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH SOME SNOW POSSIBLE JUST AT THE ONSET. MODELS
CONSENSUS SUGGESTS RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO AROUND A HALF INCH...ALTHOUGH
THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS CLOSER TO AN INCH GIVEN
PWAT VALUES NEAR AN INCH. SOME CLEARING IS POSSIBLE SUN AS DRIER AIR
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND GEM SUGGEST THAT THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OVER NRN WI KEEPING PCPN POTENTIAL INTO
THE FAR SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB BACK
INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S SUN AFTERNOON.

MON INTO WED...ALL THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE PATTERN
WILL AMPLIFY AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WEST. AS A RESULT THE
NRN GREAT LAKES WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF THE WARMER AIR AS A RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS. TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB BACK TO NEAR NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR AND LOWER TO MID
50S INLAND WITH MIN READINGS IN THE LOWER 30S. SHOULD BE GENERALLY A DRIER
PERIOD UNDER INFLUENCE OF RIDING...BUT SOME ISOLD LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY EMBEDDED WEAK SHRTWVS PASSING THROUGH IN
THE WNW FLOW ALOFT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 152 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

WHILE THE BULK OF THE SNOW HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LINGER INTO TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO REDUCED
CEILINGS THROUGH TONIGHT UNTIL DAYTIME MIXING AND DRIER AIR IMPROVE
CONDITIONS ON FRI. ALSO...WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY TONIGHT...LEADING
TO SOME FZDZ AT CMX AND POSSIBLE IWD...BUT WAS NOT AS CONFIDENT AT
IWD SO LEFT IT OUT OF THE FORECAST.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES RESULTS IN NORTHWEST WINDS
LESS THAN 20 KTS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RESULT IN WINDS STAYING BELOW 20 KTS INTO SATURDAY...BUT EAST WINDS
INCREASE TO 30 KTS LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. WINDS DIMINISH BELOW 20 KTS BY
SUNDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 435 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

COLDER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS RESULTING IN
MINIMAL RUNOFF OF MELTING SNOW AND THUS LITTLE FLUCTUATION IN RIVER
LEVELS. DIMINISHED RUNOFF SHOULD ALSO REDUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL ICE JAMS. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS IN THE FORECAST FOR
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 0.30 TO 1.00 INCHES
OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION...GREATEST OVER THE W HALF OF
UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS PRECIP ADDED TO EXISTING SNOWPACK WITH WATER
EQUIVALENT OF 4-9 INCHES WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF SNOWMELT
RUNOFF/RIVER RISES AND POSSIBLE ICE JAMS ONCE WARMER TEMPERATURES
ARRIVE NEXT WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...TITUS
HYDROLOGY...VOSS






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