Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 211916
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
316 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

COLD FRONT IS OVER FAR SCNTRL CWA AND CU IS EXPANDING AND ARE NOW
SEEING SHRA POP UP OVER SOUTHERN MENOMINEE COUNTY IN CONVERGENCE
ZONE FM FRONT AND LAKE BREEZES OFF BAY OF GREEN BAY. BASED ON LATEST
HRRR AND RADAR TRENDS...KEPT SHRA IN FAR SOUTH MENOMINEE COUNTY
TROUGH 21Z. NO LIGHTNING YET...EITHER CLOUD TO GROUND OR CLOUD TO
CLOUD/IN CLOUD STRIKES...BUT WITH POCKET OF MUCAPES UP TO 300J/KG
OVER FAR NORTHEAST WI WHERE TEMPS ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...PUT
MENTION IN WHERE THERE IS MENTION OF SHRA. THAT IS ALL THE CLOUDS TO
SPEAK OF THOUGH WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE AND CLEAR SKIES WILL DOMINATE
OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVERHEAD LEADS TO MIN TEMPS BACK INTO THE 20S FOR INTERIOR FAVORED
COLD SPOTS /TEMPS UPSTREAM THIS MORNING OVER ONTARIO WERE IN THE 20S
BENEATH THE HIGH. LIGHT NORTH/NORTHEAST WIND SHOULD KEEP IMMEDIATE
SHORELINE OF LK SUPERIOR MORE IN THE MID 30S.

DRY ON FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER AFTN OF LOW MIN RH. FIRE WX ISSUES SHOULD
BE MITIGATED AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
OVERHEAD. BY MID-LATE AFTN...SHOULD SEE WINDS NEAR LK MICHIGAN BECOME
ORIENTED MORE WITH LAKE BREEZES. DESPITE CHILLY AIR ALOFT WITH H85
TEMPS BLO 0C TO START THE DAY...DEEPER MIXING SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS ON
FRIDAY INTO LOWER 60S ALONG WI BORDER. GRADIENT NORTH WINDS WILL KEEP
READINGS IN THE 40S ALL DAY NEAR LK SUPERIOR.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 603 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET AS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION STAYS IN A NORTHWESTERLY CONFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT ON WESTERN EDGE OF TROUGH CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA. AS A
RESULT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEKEND KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING NE
FROM MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS WILL PROVIDE A NEXT
BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS HINT THAT
SERIES OF WEAKER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES COULD KEEP CONDITIONS
UNSETTLED INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

AS STATED PREVIOUSLY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY BE THE
DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS AREA FROM FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY KEEPING
FORECAST GENERALLY DRY. CLIPPER SHORTWAVE GLANCING THE ERN EDGE OF
LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE NORTHERLY FLOW INTO FRIDAY AS
THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH DESCENDS SOUTH FROM ONTARIO. HIGHS FRIDAY
WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL...FROM LOWER TO MID 50S NCNTRL AND
EAST TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S WRN INTERIOR. TEMPS BY SATURDAY WILL
REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES (MAINLY LOWER TO MID 70S) AS HIGH
DEPARTS SOUTHEAST AND WSW FLOW STARTS TO DEVELOP.

GFS REMAINS MOST AGGRESSIVE OF OPERATIONAL 00Z MODEL SOLNS WITH
ARRIVAL OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND ASSOC WAA PCPN INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...ALTHOUGH IT MIGHT BE SHOWING SIGNS OF TRENDING TOWARD SLOWER
SOLNS OF NAM/CANADIAN AND ECMWF AS ALL MODELS NOW SHOW POSITION OF
PLAINS 5H RIDGE AXIS REMAINING WEST OF UPPER MI THROUGH AT LEAST SUN
MORNING. BIGGEST PROBLEM WITH GFS APPEARS TO BE OVERDONE MOISTURE
ADVECTION INTO AREA EVEN WITH ESTABLISHED RIDGE IN PLACE. 00Z GFS
RUN STILL WANTS TO BRING PCPN INTO THE SRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING WHICH SEEMS ENTIRELY TOO QUICK GIVEN THAT 5H
RIDGE AXIS REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA. SEEMS MORE REASONABLE TO SIDE
WITH BLEND OF SLOWER ECMWF/CANADIAN/NAM SOLNS GIVEN BLOCKY PATTERN
IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THUS...WL CONTINUE TO
DELAY BULK OF PCPN AND HIGHER POPS UNTIL AT LEAST SUN NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WHEN CONSENSUS OF OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE SOLNS
INDICATE WRN CONUS SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND ASSOC SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL
LIFT INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. MODELS GENERALLY INDICATE BEST
INSTABILITY AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STAYING SOUTH OF AREA THROUGH
PERIOD. ONLY CANADIAN AND GFS MODELS HINT AT GREATER INSTABILITY BY
MON AFTERNOON AS THEY SHOW SFC LOW TRACKING TO OUR WEST AND UPPER MI
PLACED IN WARM MOIST SECTOR AHEAD OF THE LOW...BUT PREFER TO SEE
THIS SIGNAL IN AT LEAST ONE MORE MODEL RUN BEFORE INSERTING THUNDER
IN FCST.  WEATHER MAY REMAIN UNSETTLED INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
AS MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE POSSIBILITY FOR A SERIES OF WEAKER
NRN PLAINS SHORTWAVES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND BRING LIGHT SHRA
ACTIVITY INTO THE AREA.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. NORTH WINDS IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT THIS AFTN ARE STRONGEST AT
KSAW WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS. WINDS BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT FOR ALL TAF
SITES AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD. LIGHT LAKE BREEZES ON
FRIDAY.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 313 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

WINDS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK APPEAR TO REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KTS OVER LK
SUPERIOR. ONLY EXCEPTION IS ON SATURDAY AS SW WINDS INCREASE TO 25
KTS OVER ESPECIALLY NORTHERN HALF OF LK SUPERIOR DUE TO TIGHTER
PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT DEVELOPS BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER
NORTHERN ONTARIO AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLING ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES. SINCE MARINE LAYER WILL BE STRONGER...WITH WARM AIR
JUST ABOVE THE LAKE WATER SURFACE...STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR AT
HIGHER OBSERVATION PLATFORMS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...JLA


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