Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 250840
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
340 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

ONLY MINOR PRECIP AMOUNTS EXPECTED THROUGH SUN AS PRECIP RESULTS
FROM LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/UPSLOPE FLOW FOR THE MOST PART. A COLD FRONT
THAT HAS ALMOST MOVED COMPLETELY THROUGH THE CWA BROUGHT A MIX OF
RAIN AND DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE ALONG WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES
TODAY. WITH TEMPS DROPPING...A N TO S TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW WILL
RESULT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE DGZ LOWERS INTO THE MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER. 850MB TEMPS WILL DROP A FEW MORE DEGREES TO AROUND
-15C TONIGHT INTO SUN. NLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME NELY THIS
EVENING AS A 1025MB SFC HIGH MOVES TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NW. THE
COLDER TEMPS AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALLOW FOR UPSLOPE PRECIP
IN THE N WIND SNOWBELTS EARLY...TRANSITIONING TO THE NE WIND
SNOWBELTS BY LATE EVENING. ONLY LIGHT SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED AS LAKE
INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW 4KFT. THE SFC
HIGH WILL THEN SHIFT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR BY 00Z MON...BRINGING AN END
TO ANY PRECIP BY SUN EVENING. WHILE QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AT
AROUND OR LESS THAN 0.10 INCHES IN THE NE WIND SNOWBELTS...SLR
VALUES SHOULD BE ABLE TO INCREASE TO AROUND 20 TO 1 THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS ALMOST COMPLETELY IN THE DGZ AND
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP SNOW FLAKES FROM BEING BROKEN
APART. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN 1-1.5 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE NE WIND
SNOWBELTS...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NCENTRAL UPPER MI AND
AT THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW.

EXPECT MIN TEMPS TONIGHT FROM AROUND 0F E TO AROUND 10F ELSEWHERE.
SUNDAY WILL NOT SEE MUCH WARMING AS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
LOW TO MID TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

EXPECT NO SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGES THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS A
500MB TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND MUCH OF THE EAST HALF
OF THE U.S. THE MAIN EXCEPTION WILL BE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
THE RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES
REGION. BY 00Z THURSDAY 850MB TEMPS SHOULD WARM TO -4 TO -1C
/WARMEST OFF THE 24/12Z ECMWF/. SFC TEMPS TOPPING OUT NEAR FREEZING
WILL BE THE RESULT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE WARM SPELL WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS COLDER AIR SET UP OVER N CENTRAL CANADA SHIFTS SINKS ACROSS
HUDSON BAY ON FRIDAY...AND SURGE ACROSS ONTARIO AND INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES FROM SATURDAY THROUGH THE START OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
THE EXACT TIMING...SATURDAY OR LATER SATURDAY NIGHT...IS STILL IN
QUESTION. THE 25/00Z IS A LITTLE SLOWER TO PUSH THE COLD AIR DOWN.
GIVEN THAT THIS IS OVER 150HRS OUT...WILL GO WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION
FOR NOW.

AS FOR SOME OF THE SPECIFICS...WE WILL START 12Z MONDAY WITH THE
NEXT LOW KNOCKING ON THE DOOR /SET UP ACROSS SE MANITOBA THROUGH N
MN/. THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF ARE ON THE SW END OF THE LOW TRACK
ENVELOPE...WHILE THE NAM AND GFS ARE FARTHER TO THE NE AND TRACK IT
OVER W LAKE SUPERIR BY 00Z TUESDAY. EITHER WAY THE ROUGHLY 150 MILE
DIFFERNECE IN PLACMENT OF THE LOW DOES MAKE A DIFFERENCE IN THE WIND
FIELDS...BUT BOTH INDICATE SNOW FOR WESTERN AND AT LEAST MOST OF
CENTRAL UPPER MI. THIS SW TREND IN THE BETTER FORCING OCCURRED WITH
THE LAST SIGNIFICANT CLIPPER SYSTEM TOO...SO WE WILL SEE IF THIS
CONTINUES. WILL KEEP THE LIKELY POPS IN THE W ONLY.

BEHIND THE LOW A SFC RIDGE WILL SLIDE ACROSS UPPER MI FROM THE
W...AS THE NEXT LOW ORGANIZES ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES
TUESDAY/WEDNESAY. EXPECT THIS LOW /EXTENDING FROM ND ALL THE WAY
THROUGH N TX AT 18Z WEDNESDAY TO PUSH ACROSS FAR S LAKE MI BY
DAYBREAK THURSDAY. THERE IS AMAZING CONSISTANCY WITH THE TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF THIS LOW FOR THIS 108HR FCST. THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL
EXTEND ALL THE WAY THROUGH N LAKE SUPERIOR 00-12Z THURSDAY. THIS
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SNOW...ASSISTED BY THE NEXT ELONGATED
SHORTWAVE SWINGING IN FROM THE NW. AT THIS POINT THE GFS IS HINTING
IN 3-5IN OF SNOW FROM 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...BEFORE THE
INVERSION HEIGHTS START DROPPING BELOW 5KFT AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

A MOIST NE LOW-LVL WIND DIRECTION OVER THE AREA SHOULD MAINTAIN MVFR
CIGS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PD FOR ALL TAF SITES. NE WIND DIRECTION WILL
FAVOR MAINLY KSAW FOR LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS INTO SUNDAY BUT
DO NOT EXPECT MUCH VSBY RESTRICTION FROM -SHSN. EXPECT WINDS TO GO
VARIABLE AT KIWD AND KCMX LATE SUNDAY AND AT KSAW TOWARD SUN EVENING
WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FM NW OF
LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL SHIFT INTO NW ONTARIO ON
SUNDAY MORNING...AND SW QUEBEC ON MONDAY. AT THE SAME TIME A LOW
DIVING SE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES THIS AFTERNOON WILL PUSH
INTO THE MID MS VALLEY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPING IN WEST
CENTRAL CANADA ON SUNDAY WILL CROSS LAKE WINNIPEG MONDAY
MORNING...AND WISCONSIN ON MONDAY EVENING. LOOK FOR A HIGH OVER THE
N PLAINS ON TUESDAY TO SHIFT TO OH RIVER VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL BE TO THE S OF A TROUGH THAT WILL DRIFT ACROSS NORTHWEST
ONTARIO. ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE N PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...TITUS



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