Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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139
FXUS63 KMQT 262033
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
433 PM EDT Fri May 26 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 345 PM EDT FRI MAY 26 2017

No major weather impacts expected in the short-term portion of the
forecast.

Tonight: A weak cold front/surface trough will slide across the west
half of the U.P. this evening and weaken further as it shifts across
the rest of the area tonight. The main focus for any rain showers
will be along and just ahead of the front, especially in the
evening. There may be just enough elevated instability to give a few
rumbls of thunder. Generally, any shower and thunderstorm activity
will diminish in both coverage and intesity as daytime heating
diminishes and the weak front begins to wash out. Drier mid-level
air will move in on the back side of the front, which may allow for
some fog development tonight in areas that receive light rain and
where clouds decrease.

Saturday: A quick moving upper-level 500mb ridge will slide across
the U.P. through early afternoon before the ridge axis slides east
of the area by mid afternoon. This will likely give sunny to partly
sunny skies across the area through much of the morning  hours. Once
the ridge slides to the east of the area, moisture will begin to
flow into the U.P. once again as broad troughing slides into the
area from the west. This broad troughing is associated with a broad
closed upper low and surface low over Manitoba. Models are showing a
weak shortwave sliding into the are during the mid to late afternoon
hours, which may end up giving some scattered rain showers over the
south central U.P. and poritons of the eastern U.P.; however, the
rain showers should remain light. High temperatures will remain near
to slightly above normal with highs running in the upper 60s to
around 70 for most locations.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 431 PM EDT FRI MAY 26 2017

A slowly progressive but amplified pattern will prevail through
next week with a mid/upper level low/trough over Manitoba
gradually moving through northern Ontario and the northern Great
Lakes into the northeast CONUS. Expect below normal temps through
next week with the best rain chances Sunday diminishing from Mon
into Tue.

Saturday night into Sunday, a shortwave trough moving through MN to
Upper Michigan will bring an increase in shra coverage, esepcially
into Sunday morning. With PWAT values to around 1.2 inches, and the
potential a band of moderate to strong mid level fgen with the
feature, heavier rain to around an inch may be possible mainly over
central Upper Michigan. However, there is lower confidence with the
location/timing of this feature. MUCAPE values into the 500-1000
J/kg with steepening mid level lapse rates could also support a few
tsra.

Sunday night into Wednesday, As the mid level low drops into the
northern Great Lakes, periods of at least sct shra will continue
aided by weaker shrtwvs near the mid level low. There may still be
some instability, but will be low enough for only minimal tsra
chances. Mostly cloudy conditions will keep highs mainly in the
mid 50s to lower 60s with lows in the 40s.

Thursday-Friday, mainly dry weather is expected as the mid level
trough shifts to the ne CONUS and sfc high pressure builds into the
reigon. Highs will climb mainly into the 60s. Winds will be weak
enough for prominent lake breezes and cooler conditions along the
Great Lakes.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 137 PM EDT FRI MAY 26 2017

VFR conditions will continue into late this afternoon and early
evening before a few light showers move through by mid evening west
and overnight central and east. This may lead to occasional MVFR
conditions at each of the sites. While the rain will be light, the
rain that does occur may allow for enough low level moisture to
cause fog to develop late tonight mainly for the KSAW and KCMX TAF
sites. A lot of that hinges on added rainfall along with possibly
clearing skies late tonight; therefore, have left fog out of the TAF
for this issuance. Saturday, a bit drier air will slide through
allowing VFR conditions through the end of the TAF period.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 345 PM EDT FRI MAY 26 2017

Through the weekend, winds of 10 to 20 knots are expected across
Lake Superior. Early next week, winds will increase to around 20
knots as an area of low pressure is progged to dig across portions
of the Upper Great Lakes.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC



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