Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 212033
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
433 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

THE LATEST FEW SATELLITE IMAGES TELL THE STORY...WITH DRIER AIR
WORKING IN FROM THE NW. UPSLOPE CONDITIONS INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR
HAVE RESULTED IN A SLIGHTLY SLOWER EROSION OF THE MVFR
CEILINGS...BUT THE TREND CONTINUES. DEW POINTS HAVE ALREADY FALLEN
INTO THE 30S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH DRY COOL AIR ANTICIPATED
OVERNIGHT. A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND RAPIDLY DIMINISHING WINDS WILL
RESULT IN QUICKLY FALLING TEMPS WITH PATCHY FROST DEVELOPING INLAND
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. HOISTED A FROST ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL
UPPER MI...WITH TEMPS OF 30-36F. PW VALUES WILL FALL TO AROUND 35-45
PERCENT OF NORMAL. HOWEVER...INCREASING WAA OVER THE FAR W AND
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE OVER THE FAR W SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING
TOO LOW FOR GOGEBIC AND ONTONAGON COUNTIES. MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW
THE INVERSION OVERNIGHT MAY PRODUCE PATCHY FOG OVER MAINLY S
PORTIONS OF UPPER MI. THE BEST CHANCE FOR FOG SHOULD STAY S OF THE
WI BORDER.

850MB TEMPS REBOUNDING FROM AROUND 1C THIS AFTERNOON TO 5-10C BY
MID-LATE AFTERNOON AND WESTERLY SFC-850MB FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
PUSH BACK INTO THE 60S TOMORROW. THIS WILL MEAN A RETURN OF NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE SFC HIGH OVER THE MI MS VALLEY EXTENDING A
RIDGE UP THROUGH CENTRAL ONTARIO AT 12Z MONDAY WILL BE SUPPRESSED S
THANKS TO A SFC TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACROSS
ONTARIO AND W HUDSON BAY. THE INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL AGAIN
RESULT IN GUSTY CONDITIONS OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...OUT OF THE
W GUSTING 20-25KTS BY MID-LATE MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AS ERN NOAM TROUGH DEPARTS. AT THE SFC...SRLY FLOW WILL
INCREASE AS HIGH PRES MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND AND A TROUGH DEVELOPS
OVER THE PLAINS. EXPECT TRANQUIL WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES...LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S AND HIGHS NEAR 70.

WED NIGHT INTO THU...THE REMNANS OF A MID LEVEL LOW/TROUGH DRIFTING
FROM NV INTO THE PLAINS TUE AND THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY WED MAY BRING
SOME PCPN TO AREAS WEST OF THE GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...ANY DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
AND THE DOMINATING RIDGE. SINCE THE GFS/GEFS/GEM AND 12Z/21 ECMWF
KEEP THE AREA DRY (COMPARED TO THE 00Z/21 ECMWF WHICH BROUGH SOME
LIGHT PCPN INTO UPPER MI)...LITTLE/NO RAIN IS EXPECTED.

FRI-SUN...DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AS A 592DM RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE NRN GREAT
LAKES. HIGHS TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS ON UPSLOPE N WINDS IS GIVING WAY TO A CLEARING
SKY THIS AFTERNOON. STILL EXPECT SAW TO HOLD OUT IN THE MVFR
CATEGORY FOR ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS...AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE
NW. N WINDS GUSTING 20-25KTS OVER N UPPER MI WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH
THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE BECOMING AROUND 5KTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT.
DESPITE DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE W AND SW THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM LATE
MONDAY ON. THIS TIME THEY WILL BE OUT OF THE W AND STRONGEST AT CMX
WHERE GUSTS NEARING 20-25KTS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. THIS WILL BE
THANKS TO ANOTHER SFC LOW PUSHES ACROSS CENTRAL/N ONTARIO...BECOMING
SQUEEZED BETWEEN LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID MS VALLEY AND N
MANITOBA/W HUDSON BAY.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

GUSTS GENERALLY LESS THAN 25KTS WILL BE THE RULE FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. STILL HAVE GUSTS OF
25-30KTS AT THE HIGHER PLATFORMS OF STANNARD ROCK AND GRANITE ISLAND
INITIALLY. THE LOW OVER SW QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE E INTO THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE W MOVES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH WILL MOVE INTO THE OH
VALLEY MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY...WHILE KEEPING A RIDGE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SHIFT OVER NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP LAKE SUPERIOR UNDER
A RIDGE THROUGH THE SAME TIME PERIOD.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ TO 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/
     MONDAY FOR MIZ004-005-010>013-084.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...KF






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