Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 070836
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
436 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

00Z RAOBS AND MODEL H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS SHARP MID-LEVEL TROUGH ALOFT
OVER ONTARIO. H85 THERMAL TROUGH PRESENT WITH H85 TEMPS OF +2C AT
CYPL AND +3C AT KINL. ALL THE WHILE...TEMPS WERE STILL IN THE MID
TEENS C AT KGRB AND KAPX. STRONG COLD FRONT HAS MADE IT THROUGH ALL
OF CWA AND RAIN HAS ALL BUT ENDED IN THE EAST. SECONDARY AREA OF LGT
RAIN OR DRIZZLE AFFECTED WESTERN CWA EARLIER TONIGHT...BUT RADAR AND
OBS INDICATE THAT HAS DIMINISHED. 00Z CYPL SOUNDING SHOWED MOISTURE
H85-H75 AND BASED ON OBS FM UPSTREAM OF LK SUPERIOR...MOISTURE IS
LOWERING WITH CIGS BLO 3KFT NOTED. INCREASED SKY COVER FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST WITH THERMAL TROUGH SETTLING OVERHEAD AND GIVEN THE EXTENT
OF CLOUDS UPSTREAM. RAP/GEM-REGIONAL SEEMED TO HANDLE MOISTURE
TRENDS THE BEST EARLY TODAY. THOUGH THERE ARE BREAKS IN THE SKY
COVER OVER PARTS OF THE CWA ATTM...EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO
PERSIST OR DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF CWA THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MODERATING TEMPS H925-H85 BY
EARLY AFTN SHOULD HELP DISSIPATE THE CLOUDS COMPLETELY AS THE AFTN
PROGRESSES. DESPITE THE SUNSHINE AND MIXING...HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL BE MORE TYPICAL OF MID MAY THAN EARLY JULY. READINGS WILL
STRUGGLE INTO THE 50S ALONG LK SUPERIOR EAST OF MARQUETTE WITH STIFF
NRLY-NWRLY WIND OFF THE WATER. HIGH TEMPS INLAND TOWARD THE WI
BORDER WILL REACH THE UPR 60S TO MAYBE NEAR 70 DEGREES.

COOL DAY LEADS TO A VERY CHILLY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND
PWATS WELL BLO 0.5 INCH SHOULD LEAD TO PRIME RADIATIONAL COOLING.
WITH DWPNTS THIS AFTN DROPPING INTO THE LOW 40S...SOME INLAND
LOCATIONS WILL DROP INTO THE UPR 30S...WITH ISOLD LOWER 30S NOT OUT
OF QUESTION OVER INTERIOR WEST. FOR NOW...WENT AS LOW AS MID 30S AND
MENTIONED PATCHY FROST IN AREA FM KENTON TO WATERSMEET TO IRON
RIVER.

LOOKING AT AVAILABLE RECORDS FOR 8 JULY...SEEMS THAT SOME LOCATIONS
COULD BE CLOSE TO A RECORD LOW FOR THE DATE. WILL LIKELY BE CLOSE TO
OFFICIAL RECORD FOR NWS MQT WHICH IS 40 DEGREES SET IN 2009. JUST FOR
COMPARISON...RECORD LOW FOR THE MONTH OF JULY AT OUR OFFICE IS 34
DEGREES ON TWO DIFFERENT DAYS. AT LEAST IN TERMS OF RECORDS...MIN
TEMPS IN THE 30S IN JULY FOR THIS LOCATION ARE NOT THAT UNUSUAL AS
MORE THAN HALF OF THE DAYS IN JULY HAVE RECORD LOWS IN THE 30S.
IRONWOOD/IRON MOUNTAIN AND NEWBERRY /ALL HAVE LONGER PERIOD OF RECORD
THAN NWS OFFICE/ HAVE EVEN MORE DAYS WITH 30S OR EVEN 20S FOR RECORD
LOWS. AND FINALLY AT THE STATION AT STAMBAUGH IN IRON COUNTY...EVERY
DAY IN JULY HAS A RECORD LOW IN THE 20S OR 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

QUIET WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. ACTIVE WEATHER WILL THEN RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE
NORTHERN FRINGES OF A RIDGE BUILD TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS UPPER MI DURING THIS TIME. LIGHT
WINDS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...AND PWAT VALUES OF 0.3 TO 0.5 IN FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA WILL LEAD TO A COOL NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL
INTO THE 40S ACROSS UPPER MI...WITH UPPER 30S POSSIBLE FOR THE
INTERIOR WEST AND COLD SPOTS OF THE EAST. LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE COMMON ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY EAST...BUT AN INCREASING SW
GRADIENT FLOW WILL KEEP THE BOUNDARIES CLOSER TO THE SHORES FOR THE
WEST AND CENTRAL.

THURSDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK ESE ACROSS NORTHERN
ONTARIO...AND BRUSH UPPER MI DURING THE AFTERNOON. FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH COMBINED WITH THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE OF AN
UPPER JET STREAK WILL BE ENOUGH TO INDUCE SOME PRECIP ACROSS THE
REGION...BUT LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASING MID-LEVEL
CAPPING WILL MITIGATE CHANCES OF PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA. HAVE OPTED
TO LEAVE OUT A MENTION OF PRECIP FOR NOW.

FRIDAY...MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE REGION. THOUGH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HAVE INCREASED...LIMITED FORCING AND LOW TO
MID-LEVEL CAPPING WILL LIMIT ANY CHANCES OF DIURNAL SHOWERS.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW ON HOW THE PATTERN
WILL EVOLVE DURING THIS PERIOD. TWO TROUGHS ORIGINATING FROM SW AND
NW STATES WILL MERGE AND ATTEMPT TO ROUND/DIG INTO THE RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY ABOVE
A LOW TO MID-LEVEL CAP ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY ALONG WITH MODEST
SHEAR SUGGESTS THATS SEVERAL CONVECTIVE EPISODES WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERIES OF THE RIDGE. WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING
THIS FAR NORTH...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS UPPER MI
AT SOME POINT DURING THE WEEKEND. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...THOUGH ALL BETS ARE OFF WHEN IT COMES TO THIS
TYPE OF PATTERN.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 208 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

OTHER THAN LINGERING MVFR CONDITIONS AT KCMX EARLY THIS MORNING...VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. SOME SMOKE WILL STILL BE ALOFT...BUT SHOULD NOT CAUSE ANY
PROBLEMS AT THE SFC FOR VISIBILITY.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

N-NW WINDS UP TO 25 KTS EXPECTED THIS MORNING IN WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH LAST EVENING...THEN WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH THIS AFTN EXCEPT WSW WINDS MAY KICK UP TO 20 KTS BRIEFLY
OVER MAINLY NORTHERN SECTIONS TOWARD ISLE ROYALE. AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT...WINDS WILL DIMINISH BLO 20 KTS. THE HIGH
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY...RESULTING IN WINDS REMAINING MOSTLY BLO 15 KTS. WINDS MAY
INCREASE A BIT WED NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRES TROF CROSSING NRN
ONTARIO. &&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLA


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