Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 210941
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
441 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 440 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA AND IS LOCATED
OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS IS ALLOWING AN UPPER RIDGE
TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS (AND EVENTUALLY THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION LATER TODAY)...WHILE A SURFACE RIDGE IS LOCATED
OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR (FROM A HIGH IN THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY). 00Z SOUNDINGS AT KGRB/KAPX/KINL ALL HAVE 850MB TEMPS IN
THE -16 TO -20C RANGE AND WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ROTATING
AROUND THIS RIDGE...THE AREA IS STILL SEEING LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS IN THOSE FAVORED SNOW BELTS. IT DOES APPEAR THAT THERE WAS A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR EARLIER THIS
MORNING...HELPING TO GIVE WINDS A LITTLE MORE OF A NORTH-NORTHWEST
DIRECTION IN THAT AREA (AND CONFIRMED ON KMQT VWP). THAT HAS PUSHED
SOME OF THE LAKE EFFECT BANDS FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST THAN EXPECTED
WITH THE FORECAST LAST NIGHT...RUNNING ALONG THE MARQUETTE COUNTY
SHORELINE AND INTO WESTERN ALGER COUNTY. BUT THE KMQT VWP AND
SURFACE WINDS INDICATE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS BACKED MORE TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST NOW AND IT IS BEGINNING TO PUSH THE BANDS TO THE
EAST. WITH THIS PUSH AND THE LIMITED SNOWFALL RATES SHOWN ON
RADAR...WILL SHORTEN THE WARNING FOR ALGER/LUCE AND NORTHERN
SCHOOLCRAFT TO 12Z. FARTHER TO THE WEST...ALREADY STARTING TO SEE
THE AFFECT OF THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE SURFACE-850MB RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN LAKE. IT LED TO THE LAKE EFFECT QUICKLY DIMINISHING BETWEEN
THE APOSTLE ISLANDS AND KIWD SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND IS
CONTINUING TO PUSH EAST TOWARDS THE KEWEENAW. KCMX IS STILL SEEING
OCCASIONAL VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS TO 2MI...BUT IT HAS LARGELY
TRANSITIONED TO VERY LIGHT SNOW.

AS THIS LOW LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST...WILL SEE THE LAKE
EFFECT DIMINISH AND END FROM WEST-EAST THIS MORNING. IN
ADDITION...THE BACKING LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL LEAD TO ANY LINGERING
BANDS BEING FOCUSED OVER THE KEWEENAW AND ALSO RIGHT ALONG THE
SHORELINE EAST OF MUNISING BY MID MORNING AND OFFSHORE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...EXPECT FILTERED
SUNSHINE TODAY...WITH HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA
AS THEY ROUND THE UPPER RIDGE. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE AND A LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS
MANITOBA TODAY WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON. GUSTS FOR MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE IN THE 20-25KT
RANGE...BUT COULD SEE SOME HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE FAR WEST. WITH THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINING IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...EXPECT
THE GUSTS TO CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY IN THE FAVORED SOUTHWEST WIND
DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL LEAD TO
BLOWING SNOW IN OPEN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

EXPECT THE MID-HIGH CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO COVER THE AREA THIS
EVENING...BUT LOW CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE THIS
EVENING AND AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS IN EASTERN TEXAS
QUICKLY LIFTS NORTH-NORTHEAST TODAY AND THIS EVENING. WHILE THE BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS WILL BE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA (LOWER
MICHIGAN) AND ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND DEEPER
MOISTURE...STILL SHOULD SEE AN ABUNDANCE OF LOW CLOUDS OVER THE CWA
UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. CLOUD TEMPERATURES
INITIALLY WILL BE AROUND -8C (COLD ENOUGH FOR A DECENT NUMBER OF ICE
NUCLEI) BUT WILL THEN STEADILY WARM THROUGH THE NIGHT TO AROUND -4C
BY 12Z SATURDAY. FARTHER ALOFT...THERE IS PLENTY OF MID CLOUDS THAT
WILL BE MOVING OVER THE AREA AND PROVIDING ICE CRYSTALS...BUT A
LARGE POCKET OF DRY AIR BETWEEN 875-700MB WOULD KEEP ANY
SEEDER/FEEDER PROCESS FROM HAPPENING. THUS...ICE CRYSTAL POTENTIAL
LOOKS TO BECOME VERY LIMITED BY SATURDAY MORNING AND SHOULD ANY
PRECIPITATION OCCUR IT WOULD BE AND LIQUID FORM. MODELS ARE NOT
SHOWING TO MUCH LIFT IN THE LOW LEVELS...BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
CENTRAL/EAST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 456 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

BIG CHANGES ARE STILL EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FCST. HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN THAT HAS BROUGHT PERSISTENTLY MUCH
BLO NORMAL TEMPS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL RELAX SIGNIFICANTLY
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS PACIFIC FLOW PLOWS INTO THE WRN
PORTION OF NAMERICA AND FORCES THE ERN TROF OUT. CHANGE OCCURS
QUICKLY AS 500MB HEIGHTS OVER UPPER MI RISE A TREMENDOUS 400+ METERS
FROM THIS MORNING TO FRI EVENING. SO...AFTER AN UNSEASONABLY LONG
STRETCH OF COLD WEATHER FOR NOV (RECORD BREAKING SUBFREEZING STREAK
AT NWS MQT FOR NOV AND ALSO 6 CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF RECORD LOW MAX
TEMPS)...A QUICK TRANSITION BACK TO NORMAL/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL
OCCUR THIS WEEKEND. THE PACIFIC FLOW SURGING INTO THE WRN CONUS WILL
CARVE OUT A SIGNIFICANT SRN STREAM TROF THIS WEEKEND WHICH WILL LEAD
TO A DEEP SFC LOW LIFTING FROM TX TO UPPER MI (PRES BOTTOMS OUT IN
THE 970S MB OVER THE UPPER LAKES). WITH THE SIGNIFICANT WARMING THAT
WILL BE OCCURRING...PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DEEP SYSTEM ON THE
FRONT SIDE WILL BE RAIN FOR THE FCST AREA WITH MDT PCPN AMOUNTS
EXPECTED. AS COLDER AIR WRAPS INTO THE AREA ON THE BACKSIDE...THERE
WILL BE A TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW ON MON WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AT
LEAST MDT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON INTO TUE...MAINLY NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR. AFTER THE WARMUP THIS WEEKEND...IT LOOKS LIKE A COLD
PATTERN WILL BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHTS RISE AGAIN
OVER WRN NAMERICA/NE PACIFIC WHICH WILL ALLOW ARCTIC AIR TO SPILL S
TOWARD THE CONUS AGAIN. THE ECMWF FOR THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS HAS BEEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT SHOWING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON DROPPING SE
TOWARD THE CONUS NEXT WEEK...AND FOR WHAT IT`S WORTH...TODAYS 12Z
RUN HAS A LARGE MASS OF UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR DUMPING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES NEXT WEEKEND. WHETHER THIS IS A PATTERN THAT WILL AGAIN BECOME
PERSISTENT LIKE WHAT HAS OCCURRED RECENTLY IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AS
GEM ENSEMBLES AND CFSV2 RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LOT OF FLUCTUATION
FARTHER OUT. HOWEVER...IT DOES APPEAR THAT COLDER THAN NORMAL
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE MUCH MORE COMMON THAN ABOVE NORMAL OUT TO
2 WEEKS OR SO.

BEGINNING FRI NIGHT/SAT...WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN
STRENGTHENING WSW FLOW BTWN HIGH PRES MOVING OFF THE E COAST AND LOW
PRES MOVING ACROSS SCNTRL CANADA...MODELS ARE GENERATING SOME VERY
LIGHT PCPN OVER PARTS OF THE FCST AREA...MAINLY LATE FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT AFTN OVER THE ERN FCST AREA WHERE LONGER DURATION OF ISENTROPIC
ASCENT OCCURS. HOWEVER...PERSISTENCE OF DRIER AIR IN THE 850-700MB
LAYER SHOWN ON THE 12Z GFS/NAM FCST SOUNDINGS EVEN OVER THE E
WARRANTS JUST SCHC POPS FRI NIGHT...CHC POPS ONLY FOR THE E SAT
MORNING...AND NOTHING MORE THAN SCHC POPS ELSEWHERE SAT. WITH TODAYS
12Z GFS/NAM...FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW MORE OF A DISCONNECT OF MOISTURE
WITH MID LEVEL MOISTENING PRECEEDING LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING...AND THEN
MID LEVEL MOISTURE EXITING ONCE LOW LEVELS MOISTEN. SINCE THE
MOISTENING ENDS UP LOW BASED AND SFC BASED MOIST LAYER WILL BE
WARMER THAN -10C...PCPN MAY END UP MOSTLY AS -DZ/-FZDZ IF ANY PCPN
DOES OCCUR. EXPECT A RELATIVELY MODEST DIURNAL TEMP DROP FRI NIGHT
WITH MINS OCCURRING IN THE EVENING. TEMPS SHOULD THEN RISE SLOWLY
THRU MUCH OF THE NIGHT UNDER INCREASING SSW WINDS AND CLOUDS. TEMPS
ON SAT WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING EVERYWHERE.

SAT NIGHT...WEAK HEIGHT RISES AND WEAKENING OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT
SUGGEST A DRY NIGHT IS PROBABLY IN THE OFFING. WITH LIGHTER WINDS
UNDER DRIER MID LEVELS...MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S TO
AROUND 30F IN GENERAL.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER THE SRN PLAINS
SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONG SRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE. MEANWHILE...ADDITIONAL ENERGY MOVING OUT OVER THE PLAINS
WILL PULL THIS SYSTEM N WITH SFC LOW BECOMING DEEP INTO THE 970S MB
BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE UPPER LAKES MON MORNING. THERE CONTINUE
TO BE SOME CONCERNS WITH INTERACTION OF THE MAIN SHORTWAVE LIFTING
UP FROM TX AND UPSTREAM ENERGY MOVING INTO THE PLAINS. LATEST MODEL
TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO SHIFT SFC LOW TRACK SLIGHTLY E FROM CNTRL UPPER
MI TOWARD ERN UPPER MI. HOWEVER...LACK OF A COLD AIR TAP...HELD UP
BY THE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE PLAINS...STILL SUGGESTS PCPN ON THE
FRONT SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ALL RAIN FOR UPPER MI. THIS IS
BEST SHOWN BY THE ECMWF. HOWEVER...NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT
THERE COULD BE A LITTLE -FZRA AT THE ONSET SUN IF TEMPS ARE STILL
CLOSE TO FREEZING WHEN PCPN BEGINS. OTHERWISE...MODEL TIMING IS GOOD
THAT RAIN WILL SURGE N INTO UPPER MI LATE SUN MORNING/AFTN AND
CONTINUE SUN NIGHT. EXPECT AT LEAST MDT RAINFALL AMOUNTS...ROUGHLY
AROUND ONE-HALF INCH IN GENERAL. HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS WOULD BE
MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER THE E WHERE MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE
STRONGER/MORE SUSTAINED. AS THE SYSTEM THEN DRIFTS NE AND COLUMN
COOLS UNDER FALLING HEIGHTS...INCREASINGLY DEFINED DEFORMATION PCPN
SHIELD WILL DEVELOP INTO AT LEAST WRN UPPER MI. WITH 850MB TEMPS
COOLING SUFFICIENTLY...LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL ALSO COME INTO PLAY. SO
AFTER THE RAIN...MAY END UP WITH MDT TO POTENTIALLY HVY SNOW OVER
WRN UPPER MI MON AFTN INTO MON NIGHT ALONG WITH BLUSTERY NW WINDS.
THE SNOW/WIND WILL SPREAD INTO THE ERN FCST AREA AS WELL...BUT WITH
DEFORMATION PCPN TENDING TO LIFT NE...SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY BE
LIGHTER THAN OVER THE W.

WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND -14C TUE...NW FLOW LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL
TRANSITION TO PURE LES AS TROF SHIFTS E AND DEEP MOISTURE DEPARTS.
THUS...THERE WILL BE A DIMINISHING OF SNOW THRU THE DAY NEAR THE
LAKE.

HEADING INTO WED/THU...THERE CONTINUES TO BE INDICATIONS OF A
CLIPPER TYPE SHORTWAVE BRINGING A POTENTIAL PERIOD OF -SN...FOLLOWED
BY A SURGE OF COLDER AIR AND RENEWED LES. GIVEN INCONSISTENCY IN
TIMING/LOCATION IN RECENT GFS/ECMWF MODEL RUNS...UTILIZED A
CONSENSUS APPROACH WHICH KEEPS POPS HIGHEST NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

CMX SHOULD SEE CONTINUING -SHSN OVERNIGHT UNTIL THE WINDS BACK MORE
TO THE SW FRIDAY MORNING. SAW AND IWD WILL STAY VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WILL GET GUSTY AT ALL SITES FRI AFTERNOON WITH STRONG WINDS
OFF THE SURFACE WHICH WILL STAY INTO FRI EVENING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 440 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT WINDS TO THE
SOUTHWEST TODAY AND THEN INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A
LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS MANITOBA AND FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO. THIS
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO WINDS INCREASING TO AT
LEAST 30KTS AND WILL LIKELY SEE FREQUENT GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35
KNOTS TONIGHT. UPGRADED THE WATCH TO A WARNING FOR TONIGHT AND
EXPANDED IT TO ALL BY LSZ265. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DECREASE
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS A TROUGH TRAILING THE CANADIAN LOW
DROPS SOUTHEAST OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. A DEVELOPING LOW IN THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON MONDAY AROUND 28.9 INCHES. THE
CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR THE LOW TO LIFT THROUGH NORTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO NORTHERLY GALES OVER MUCH OF THE LAKE
LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ006-
     007-085.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     LSZ266-267.

  GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM EST /4 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     /6 AM CST/ SATURDAY FOR LSZ162-263-264.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
  GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     LMZ248.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...07
MARINE...SRF






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