Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 240719
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
319 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE RIDGE MOVES SLOWLY EAST TODAY WHILE A TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE PLAINS AND THIS TROUGH AFFECTS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT.

NAM BRINGS IN SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND SOME DEEPER
MOISTURE INTO THE CWA TONIGHT. GFS AND ECMWF DO ABOUT THE SAME THING
AS WELL. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING
FORECAST EXCEPT TO DELAY POPS FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE
MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WITH LAKE
BREEZES...BUT THINKING IS THIS IS OVERDONE WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS
IN PLACE...WOULD BE HARD TO GET ANY CONVECTION GOING.
ECMWF...CANADIAN...NAM ALL HAVE BACKED OFF ON ANY PCPN FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL GO WITH THAT IDEA. DID BRING IN SOME CATEGORICAL
POPS FOR TONIGHT AS A BAND OF HEAVY RAIN MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
WITH THIS RAIN...FOG BECOMES A POSSIBILITY ESPECIALLY IN THE LAKES
AND KEPT THAT IN THERE AS WELL. WILL BECOME A VERY GOOD POSSIBILITY
WHEN RAIN FALLS INTO THE LAKES. KEPT TEMPERATURES PRETTY SIMILAR TO
GOING FORECAST EXCEPT WARMED UP LOWS A BIT TONIGHT WITH PLENTY OF
CLOUDS IN THE AREA...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE FAIRLY UNIFORM WITH
COOLEST READINGS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A 997MB SFC LOW WILL BE OVER THE IA/MN BORDER AT 12Z MON...WITH
PLENTY OF PRECIP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT WHICH WILL BE
JUST S OF THE CWA AT 12Z. THE LOW SHIFT NNE DURING THE DAY MON...AND
WILL BE OVER THE WRN CWA AT 00Z TUE. MODELS DISSAGREE ON EXACT
LOCATION LATER MON...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING THE LOW OVER FAR WRN
LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE MN ARROWHEAD WHILE THE GFS SHOWS THE LOW OVER
GOGEBIC COUNTY. THE GEM BACKS UP THE ECMWF IDEA WHILE THE NAM IS
CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION. WILL USE A GENERAL CONSENSUS. THE LOW
THEN SHIFTS NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z TUE. SHOULD SEE SOME DRYING
OVER AT LEAST THE SCENTRAL MON AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE DRY SLOT
ROTATES IN. PRECIP MON EVENING INTO MON NIGHT OVER THE WRN U.P. IS
UNCERTAIN DUE TO DISAGREEMENT IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW...BUT TOOK THE
MIDDLE GROUND WITH SOME LINGERING CHANCE POPS. OTHER ISSUE OF NOTE
FOR MON IS THAT FOG IS EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE OVER AND
NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AS HIGHER DEW POINTS SURGE INTO THE AREA.

DECREASED IN POPS FOR TUE AS MODELS TREND DRYER...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIP IN N-NW WIND UPSLOPE AREAS WHERE SOME DRIZZLE OR
LIGHT RAIN IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. SHOULD SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT TO
FOG CONDITIONS OVER THE LAKES...BUT WILL LINGER FOG INTO TUE NIGHT.

SFC RIDGING LOOKS TO BECOME MORE DOMINANT ON WED...LEADING TO A DRY
FORECAST. THE GFS DOES SHOW SOME PRECIP MAINLY TUE NIGHT AS IT
BRINGS A SHORTWAVE/SFC LOW SE OF THE CWA...BUT THE ECMWF AND GEM DO
NOT SHOW THIS AND THE GFS HAS NOT SHOWN GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THE
FEATURE...SO WILL LEAVE IT OUT OF THE FORECAST.

INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES ON THU AND FRI AS A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTS ACROSS SRN CANADA/NRN U.S....BUT HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD ON
SAT LEADING TO A DRY FORECAST FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND. NOT A
WHOLE LOT OF SIGNIFICANCE WITH TEMPS UNTIL FRI AND MAINLY SAT WHEN
TEMPS LOOK TO BE THE COLDEST OF THE WEEK AND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 106 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...DRY AIR
WILL LINGER AT THE LOWER LEVELS THRU AT LEAST EARLY THIS EVENING...
RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. LATE THIS
EVENING AND JUST BEYOND THIS FCST PERIOD...AN AREA OF SHOWERS WILL
LIFT N INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...BRINGING DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS. PCPN SHOULD ADVANCE AS FAR N AND NE AS KIWD JUST BEFORE
THE END OF THIS FCST PERIOD. BEYOND THIS FCST PERIOD...CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY FALL TO IFR OR LOWER AT ALL TERMINALS BY SUNRISE MON.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

WINDS REMAIN AT OR LESS THAN 20 KTS THIS FORECAST PERIOD. FOG SHOULD
DEVELOP TONIGHT AND THIS WILL LINGER OVER MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. FOG MAY BECOME DENSE AT TIMES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...07


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