Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 211723

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
1223 PM EST Wed Feb 21 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 338 AM EST WED FEB 21 2018

Some light snow showers continue across the N-central and western
U.P. early this morning as a surface trough hangs back across the
area and due to light lake effect. Don`t expect that to last much
into the daylight hours as a ridge moves in. The ridge will result
in clearing skies today and mostly clear skies tonight. Highs will
be in the 20s today with lows in the single digits above and below
zero tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 244 AM EST WED FEB 21 2018

Nam shows a 500 mb trough in the western U.S. with a ridge in the
sern U.S. 12z Thu. A shortwave ejects out of this trough and heads
northeast towards the upper Great Lakes 12z Fri. The trough moves
moves into the Rockies and northern plains 12z Sat. Nam brings in
some deeper moisture and 850-500 mb q-vector convergence late Thu
night and both move out late Fri morning. Still looks like there
could be a wintry mix of pcpn on Fri morning with the highest pops
then. Overall, did not make too many changes to the going forecast.

In the extended, GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb trough in the Rockies
and northern plains 12z Sat. This trough heads northeast into the
upper Great Lakes 12z Sun. 18z GFS has a 971 mb low near the U.P.
while the 00z GFS run has a 976 mb low 12z Sun. The 12z ECMWF has a
weaker low of 1004 mb 12z Sun. More upper troughing moves in for 12z
Mon. Troughing moves into the western U.S. on Tue and Wed and pushes
up a ridge into the ern U.S. Temperatures stay above normal for this
forecast period. System for Sat night into Sun continues to bear
watching with the differences in strength between models.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1222 PM EST WED FEB 21 2018

Once lingering MVFR ceilings and lake effect snow showers dissipate
early this afternoon, VFR ceilings and visibilities are expected
through the rest of this TAF period. Tonight, winds will become
light as high pressure tracks across Upper Michigan.

.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 338 AM EST WED FEB 21 2018

No gales are expected through the forecast period.

Upper Michigan...
Lake Superior...
Lake Michigan...


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