Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 012321
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
721 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 438 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW WSW FLOW INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. SOME DISTURBANCES ARE NOTED IN THE FLOW...ONE IS IN NE
MN AND THE OTHERS ARE IN SE SD/NE NEBRASKA. DESPITE PRESENCE OF
SHORTWAVE NEARBY AND MLCAPES OF 1500-2500J/KG...NO SHRA OR TSTMS
HAVE DEVELOPED YET THIS AFTN. PER VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY...THERE IS
AN AREA OF WHAT LOOKS LIKE ENHANCED CU DEVELOPMENT FROM MENOMINEE
COUNTY TO ERN MARQUETTE COUNTY AND THEN E TO NRN LUCE COUNTY IN
VCNTY OF LAKE BREEZE OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. TO THE W...SCT
-SHRA/SPRINKLES THAT WERE NEAR/JUST OFFSHORE OF WRN UPPER MI THIS
MORNING HAVE MADE LITTLE EASTWARD PROGRESS AND ARE DIMINISHING IN
COVERAGE. IT`S BEEN ANOTHER UNCOMFORTABLY HOT/HUMID DAY. DWPTS RANGE
FROM THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S WITH TEMPS GENERALLY BTWN 80F AND 90F.
COOLEST CONDITIONS (UPPER 60S/LWR 70S) ARE AT LAKESIDE LOCATIONS
ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN E OF KESC.

WITH THE LACK OF CONVECTION SO FAR THIS AFTN...POTENTIAL FOR
SHRA/TSTM DEVELOPMENT DOESN`T LOOK PROMISING. IF SHRA/TSTMS DO
FORM...IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE IN THE VCNTY OF THE
LAKE MICHIGAN LAKE BREEZE WHERE CU LOOKS BETTER DEVELOPED ATTM.
RECENT HRRR RUNS POINT TOWARD THAT POSSIBILITY. NOTHING MUCH HIGHER
THAN SCHC POPS WILL UTILIZED INTO THE EARLY EVENING HRS. UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVES OVER SD/NEBRASKA WILL DRIFT NE DURING THE NIGHT...AND
PROBABLY SHOULDN`T POSE A RISK FOR PCPN OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THE DRIER
AIR IN NRN MN WHERE DWPTS HAVE DROPPED OFF AS LOW AS THE UPPER 40S
WILL TRY TO MAKE SOME INROADS INTO UPPER MI DURING THE NIGHT...BUT
GIVEN WEAK LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND AREAS OF FOG OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR...LITTLE OR NONE OF THIS DRIER AIR SHOULD BE REALIZED HERE.
END RESULT...SHOULD BE ANOTHER NIGHT WITH FOG AND STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT IN MANY AREAS.

IT APPEARS THAT WITH UPSTREAM SHORTWAVES MOVING INTO WI/UPPER MI
WED...THERE SHOULD BE A BETTER POTENTIAL OF SHRA/TSTM DEVELOPMENT.
AS OPPOSED TO THE PCPN POTENTIAL TODAY...MODEL CONSENSUS IS MUCH
BETTER FOR SOME PCPN TO OCCUR ON WED...MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR W
HALF WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER. FOR NOW...OPTED TO RAISE
POPS INTO THE LOW/MID RANGE CHC CATEGORY TOWARD THE WI BORDER. IT
WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER WED...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE
LAKE BREEZE WILL BE MORE ACTIVE THAN TODAY. DWPTS MIGHT BE A LITTLE
LOWER...BUT CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE UNCOMFORTABLY HUMID.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

AT 00Z THURSDAY A SHORTWAVE WILL BE SET UP ACROSS UPPER MI AND
WI...RIDING THE N EDGE OF THE LARGER 500MB RIDGE SET UP ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CENTRAL U.S.

AS A RESULT...WILL START OFF WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SLOWLY EXITING
SE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER THEN FIGURED THURSDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY AS THE 500MB RIDGE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. 80S STILL LOOK ON TRACK FOR TEMPS THROUGH
SATURDAY...IF NOT SUNDAY TOO. THERE WILL BE SLIGHT DIFFERENCES EACH
DAY...BUT MAINLY A BETTER PUSH OF AIR OFF LAKE MI WHERE THEY WILL BE
HELD IN THE 70S.

A LOW EJECTING OUT OF THE PACIFIC NW WILL SWING TO THE S CENTRAL
CANADA AND THE DAKOTAS BY 12Z MONDAY...WITH A BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. BEST CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS TO
BE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE LATEST ECMWF SHOWS ONLY
LIMITED PRECIP REMAINING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES E DURING THE DAY
MONDAY. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGHS
MONDAY...AND THEN QUITE A CHANGE FOR TUESDAY WITH HIGHS CURRENTLY
ONLY FCST TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 721 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE EVENING HRS AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW.
FOG WILL LIKELY BE AN ISSUE AGAIN TONIGHT WITH IFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY KCMX AND KSAW. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WILL OCCUR
AROUND MID MORNING ON WED.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 438 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

SUMMER PATTERN WILL DOMINATE THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THRU THE WEEK
WITH WINDS ON LAKE SUPERIOR UNDER 20KT. FOR MUCH OF THE TIME...
WINDS WILL BE UNDER 15KT. AT SOME POINT OVER THE WEEKEND...LIKELY
LATE IN THE WEEKEND...PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN UPTICK IN WINDS WITH A
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO REACH THE 20-30KT RANGE. FINALLY...FOG
MAY BE AN ISSUE OVER AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE LAKE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS UNDER WARM/HUMID AIR MASS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...ROLFSON



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