Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 011918
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
318 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 447 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

UPPER LAKES REMAINS ON EDGE OF TROUGH ALOFT CENTERED OVER HUDSON
BAY. SFC LOW WITH MSLP DOWN TO 990MB IS LOCATED OVER HUDSON BAY AS
WELL. AREA OF MID CLOUDS WITH A FEW SPRINKLES ARE DROPPING SE ACROSS
WESTERN LK SUPERIOR. EXPECT SCT-BKN CLOUDS...MAINLY THIS AFTN. GOOD
AGREEMENT FM MODELS THAT WEAK LIFT /INCREASED MID-LEVEL RH AND H7-H5
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE/ ON SOUTHERN EDGE OF STRONGER SHORTWAVE
CROSSING NORTHERN ONTARIO ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
MLCAPES OVER 500J/KG COULD KICK OFF ISOLD SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTN INTO
EARLY EVENING OVER FAR SOUTHEAST CWA...EAST OF ESCANABA AND SOUTH OF
NEWBERRY. H85 TEMPS 1-2C WARMER BY THIS AFTN COMPARED TO FRIDAY...SO
MAX TEMPS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...WARMEST
SCNTRL. WINDS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE AS STRONG/GUSTY AS FRIDAY...MAINLY
FM THE WNW GUSTING UP TO 15-23 MPH...STRONGEST OVER THE KEWEENAW AND
INTERIOR WEST. RH VALUES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 35-40 PCT RANGE.
GIVEN THE DRY...AND SOMEWHAT DROUGHTISH...PATTERN WE HAVE SETTLED
INTO THE LAST FEW WEEKS...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
WIDESPREAD MEANINGFUL RAIN IS OBSERVED.

SPEAKING OF RAIN...COULD FIND SOME IN RAIN GAGES BY DAYBREAK ON
SUNDAY. NOT A SURE THING THOUGH. SOUNDINGS FM NAM/GFS SHOW MOISTURE
INCREASING LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS ONE SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES FM THE NW ALONG WITH SFC TROUGH AND INCREASING FORCING
AND MOISTURE TRY TO MOVE IN FM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
MOST OF THE MOISTURE THOUGH IS ABOVE H8...MORE IN THE H7-H5 LAYER.
H85 MOISTURE ADVECTION STRONGEST OVER MN AND WI CLOSER TO STRONGER
WSW H85 JET 35-40 KTS. MUCAPE IN LOWEST FEW KM ALSO MAXIMIZED OVER
MN/WI..PERHAPS SOUTHERN PORTIONS. SAMPLING OF MODELS FOR QPF/RAIN
CHANCES RANGE FM MAINLY DRY ECMWF AND GEM...TO GFS WHICH IS THE MOST
GENEROUS. SHOWED INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN AS NIGHT GOES ON WITH
THE BETTER CHANCES LATER AT NIGHT WITH ARRIVAL OF LARGER SCALE
FORCING FM NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND SFC TROUGH. MUCAPE
MAXIMIZING TO THE SOUTH OF CWA COULD INTERCEPT A LOT OF INSTABILITY
THAT WOULD FEED INTO TSRA. YET...CANADIAN SHORTWAVE SHOWS POTENTIAL
FOR AT LEAST ISOLD TSRA DUE TO COOLER AIR ALOFT...SO KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR TSRA. LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S...THOUGH COULD SEE 50S
INLAND WHERE WINDS MAY TRY TO DECOUPLE. WARMEST READINGS WILL BE
CLOSER TO LK SUPERIOR WITH STEADY SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

IMPACTS...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND GREATER MOISTURE WILL HAVE A
POSITIVE IMPACT ON FIRE WEATHER...AT LEAST SOMEWHAT LOWERING
CONCERNS.

A TROUGH/COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOSTLY OUT
OF THE AREA BY 00Z MON AS THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN SITTING OVER
HUDSON BAY MOVES S INTO ONTARIO. AS THE LOW MOVES FROM EXTREME NRN
ONTARIO AT 00Z MON TO THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER E OF LAKE SUPERIOR
BY 00Z WED...THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR (850MB TEMPS OF 3-4C) WILL
SLIDE INTO THE CWA. THE COLDER MID LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS MON THROUGH TUE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASED AND
SUBTLE SHORTWAVES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH. SFC TEMPS WILL BE 7-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. LOWS WILL
BE FROM THE MID 40S INLAND TO THE MID 50S NEAR THE GREAT LAKES.

TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT WILL SEE A SFC RIDGE MOVE
OVERHEAD...WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED. TEMPS MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER THAN TUE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. THERE WILL
STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TUE NIGHT TO KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING INTO
THE 30S AND WED NIGHT MAY SEE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND RETURN FLOW
TO KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING TO CONCERNING LEVELS.

THE REST OF THE PERIOD THU THROUGH SAT IS QUITE A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN
IN EXACT DETAILS AS CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE DRIVEN LARGELY BY
SHORTWAVES. SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIP EACH DAY AS GIVEN BY CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE IS REASONABLE...SO WILL LEAVE THAT IN THE FORECAST.
ALSO...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 148 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTN WL DIMINISH THIS EVNG WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/MIXING. ALTHOUGH A PASSING DISTURBANCE MAY BRING SOME
-SHRA TO UPR MI LATE TNGT...LLVL DRY AIR INDICATES VFR CONDITIONS WL
PREDOMINATE EVEN IF ANY OF THE SHOWERS PASSES OVER ONE OF THE TAF
SITES. THERE WL ALSO BE SOME MARGINAL LLWS OVERNGT WITH A
STRENGTHENING WSW FLOW ABOVE NEAR SFC STABLE LYR. THE APPROACH OF A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE ON SUN WL BRING A BETTER CHC FOR SOME SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS A TS...BUT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD STILL PREDOMINATE WITH
LINGERING LLVL DRY AIR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 447 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A LOW SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY WILL SWEEP A SERIES OF
TROUGH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THIS WEEKEND. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN IN THE 10-20KT RANGE...THOUGH SW WINDS THIS AFTN MAY REACH 20-
25 KTS OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR AHEAD AN APPROACHING TROUGH. A BROAD
SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON
SUNDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES GRADUALLY
MOVES OVER THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLA



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