Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 220650
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
250 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

COLD FRONT IS OVER FAR SCNTRL CWA AND CU IS EXPANDING AND ARE NOW
SEEING SHRA POP UP OVER SOUTHERN MENOMINEE COUNTY IN CONVERGENCE
ZONE FM FRONT AND LAKE BREEZES OFF BAY OF GREEN BAY. BASED ON LATEST
HRRR AND RADAR TRENDS...KEPT SHRA IN FAR SOUTH MENOMINEE COUNTY
TROUGH 21Z. NO LIGHTNING YET...EITHER CLOUD TO GROUND OR CLOUD TO
CLOUD/IN CLOUD STRIKES...BUT WITH POCKET OF MUCAPES UP TO 300J/KG
OVER FAR NORTHEAST WI WHERE TEMPS ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...PUT
MENTION IN WHERE THERE IS MENTION OF SHRA. THAT IS ALL THE CLOUDS TO
SPEAK OF THOUGH WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE AND CLEAR SKIES WILL DOMINATE
OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVERHEAD LEADS TO MIN TEMPS BACK INTO THE 20S FOR INTERIOR FAVORED
COLD SPOTS /TEMPS UPSTREAM THIS MORNING OVER ONTARIO WERE IN THE 20S
BENEATH THE HIGH. LIGHT NORTH/NORTHEAST WIND SHOULD KEEP IMMEDIATE
SHORELINE OF LK SUPERIOR MORE IN THE MID 30S.

DRY ON FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER AFTN OF LOW MIN RH. FIRE WX ISSUES SHOULD
BE MITIGATED AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
OVERHEAD. BY MID-LATE AFTN...SHOULD SEE WINDS NEAR LK MICHIGAN BECOME
ORIENTED MORE WITH LAKE BREEZES. DESPITE CHILLY AIR ALOFT WITH H85
TEMPS BLO 0C TO START THE DAY...DEEPER MIXING SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS ON
FRIDAY INTO LOWER 60S ALONG WI BORDER. GRADIENT NORTH WINDS WILL KEEP
READINGS IN THE 40S ALL DAY NEAR LK SUPERIOR.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

NAM SHOWS A RIDGE ACROSS THE SERN U.S. POKING UP INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES 12Z SAT. THE
PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH FOR 12Z SUN WITH THE LOW FURTHER
NORTHEAST AND THE RIDGE STILL OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE LOW
AND TROUGH MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUN NIGHT. NAM BRINGS IN
SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTH ON SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. WILL START TO BRING IN SOME POPS SUN
AFTERNOON WITH CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR WEST AND SOUTH AND THEN
INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA SUN NIGHT.
WILL ALSO GO DRIER FOR SAT AND SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE THE DRY
WEATHER INTO SUN AFTERNOON. FRONT UP TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP POPS TO
THE NORTH OF THE AREA SAT. OTHERWISE...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES
TO THE GOING FORECAST.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE SERN
U.S. 12Z MON WITH A BROAD TROUGH OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA AND
A TROUGH IN THE WESTERN U.S. THE TROUGH IN THE WESTERN U.S. BREAKS
OFF A PIECE OF ENERGY AND PUSHES UP AGAINST THE RIDGE WITH A
SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z TUE. THIS TROUGH REMAINS
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO 12Z WED WITH A SFC FRONT POISED JUST
TO THE NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS SFC FRONT HEADS SOUTH THROUGH
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z THU WITH A SHORTWAVE THAT MOVES INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STAY ABOVE NORMAL THIS
FORECAST PERIOD AND WITH SFC FRONTS IN THE AREA...RAIN CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AT ANY TIME WITH CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THIS PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1208 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

HIGH PRES SETTLING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH ASSOCIATED DEEP
DRY AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES/VFR CONDITIONS AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD. CALM/NEAR NEAR CALM WIND
OVERNIGHT WILL TRANSITION TO LIGHT LAKE BREEZES TODAY.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 313 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

WINDS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK APPEAR TO REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KTS OVER LK
SUPERIOR. ONLY EXCEPTION IS ON SATURDAY AS SW WINDS INCREASE TO 25
KTS OVER ESPECIALLY NORTHERN HALF OF LK SUPERIOR DUE TO TIGHTER
PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT DEVELOPS BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER
NORTHERN ONTARIO AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLING ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES. SINCE MARINE LAYER WILL BE STRONGER...WITH WARM AIR
JUST ABOVE THE LAKE WATER SURFACE...STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR AT
HIGHER OBSERVATION PLATFORMS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLA


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