Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 272028
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
428 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER UPPER MICHIGAN.

TONIGHT...A RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM NORTHWEST WI
TO NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL DRIFT EASTWARD THIS EVENING...SETTLING OVER
EASTERN UPPER MI OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRACK
EASTWARD OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE COMBINATION OF
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND PWATS AS LOW AS 0.4 INCHES
WILL ALLOW FOR CONSIDERABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS THE CWA. THE
MOST ABUNDANT COOLING CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. ALL
INLAND LOCATIONS SHOULD DROP INTO THE 40S OVERNIGHT...WITH COLDER
LOCATIONS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THIS WILL LEAD TO A FEW PATCHES
OF FROST FOR ANY TYPICAL COLD SPOTS ACROSS MAINLY THE INTERIOR EAST
HALF. ADDITIONALLY...WITH QUICK COOLING AND RESIDUAL NEAR-SFC
MOISTURE...PATCHES OF SHALLOW FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. AM NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING OF MUCH CONCERN...BUT QUICK SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL
FLUCTUATIONS IN VISIBILITY WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD IN THE
MORNING...ALLOWING FOR WEAK RETURN LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE WEST
HALF OF THE CWA. THIS WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS...AROUND
70...FOR MOST LOCATIONS. SOME AFTERNOON CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
POSSIBLE INLAND...THOUGH COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN IT WAS
TODAY DUE TO LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.

BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS...MID TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING
FROM THE SW IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. MODEL
TRENDS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE NAM...HAVE INDICATED A SLOWER
PROGRESSION OF THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WITH EACH SUBSEQUENT RUN. HAVE
THUS BACKED OFF ON CLOUDS A SMALL AMOUNTS...AND KEPT ALL PRECIP OUT
OF THE FORECAST UNTIL 00Z. SEE THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOR
INFORMATION ABOUT PRECIP CHANCES THURSDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S WILL BE COMMON FOR HIGH TEMPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

THE CURRENT TROUGH SET UP ACROSS WY/UT/CO WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE
PLAINS STATES BY 00Z FRIDAY...WITH AN INITIAL WAVE ACROSS MN AND N
WI. LOOK FOR THE LARGE SFC HIGH SET UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TO BE ON THE WAY OUT. WE WILL BE FACING THE LARGE SFC LOW OVER
HUDSON BAY WITH A COLD FRONT DRAPED OVER LAKE WINNIPEG...AND THEN
NEARING S STREAM LOW SET UP FROM OK TO FAR SW MN AT 00Z FRIDAY.
PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL START THE PERIOD. PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL PUMP
UP ACROSS THE SW CORNER OF THE CWA FRIDAY MORNING AS THE S LOW
SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA /LIKELY LOCATED BETWEEN W UPPER MI AND SE MN
BY 18Z FRIDAY/. THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL DIFFERENCES IN THE START OF
THIS FCST TO ALLOW FOR MODERATE TO LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND
AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...VARYING FROM ONLY
A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH AROUND IRON CO FOR EXAMPLE...TO WELL OVER
AN INCH. EITHER WAY...INSTABILITY LOOKS LIMITED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TS WERE NEEDED. THE INTERACTION
BETWEEN THE MAIN LOW MOVING TO CENTRAL AND E UPPER MI AT 00Z
SATURDAY...AND THE COLD FRONT JUST TO THE W OF THE CWA WILL BE
INTERESTING. CURRENTLY HAVE MINIMUM POPS FOR A PERIOD FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF POPS NEED TO BE INCREASED.
CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN...WITH PW VALUES LINGERING AT OR
ABOVE 1IN. THE N STREAM COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT ACROSS UPPER MI LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...FOLLOWED BY QUICK MOVING HIGH PRESSURE
FOR SATURDAY.

LOOK FOR DRY WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT
POPS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE TAILORED AS THE TIME NEARS. THE NEXT
SYSTEM WILL NEAR FOR LABOR DAY...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

OTHERWISE...MUCH DRIER AIR LOOKS TO WORK IN FOR THE START OF THE
NEXT WORK WEEK. LOWERED DEW POINTS SLIGHTLY FROM A GENERAL MODEL
BLEND.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 133 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES...EXCEPT
FOR SOME MVFR VIS AT SAW OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW-END VFR
STRATOCUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE BY AROUND 00Z. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR
PATCHY BR TO DEVELOP AT SAW. VIS MAY FLUCTUATE CONSIDERABLY DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT ANY BR OR FG SHOULD BE QUITE SHALLOW AND
DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BRING LIGHT WINDS
UNDER 15 KNOTS THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST THURSDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING A COUPLE WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENTS ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE TROUGHS WILL KEEP WINDS BELOW 20KTS. A STRONGER TROUGH WILL
THEN CROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...BRINGING SOUTH WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS MONDAY...AND SOUTHWEST
WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KLUBER
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KLUBER
MARINE...KLUBER





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