000
FXUS63 KMQT 041757
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1257 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 505 AM EST TUE MAR 4 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW WHAT`S LEFT OF THE DEEP
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WAS OVER NRN QUEBEC SHEARING EASTWARD AND
WITH IT...THE CORE OF THE BITTER COLD AIR. BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE TROF
LINGERS OVER THE ERN CONUS WHILE TO THE W...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
EXTENDS OFF THE ERN PACIFIC INTO THE WRN CONUS. SHORTWAVE THAT WAS
OVER THE NRN ROCKIES 24HRS AGO IS NOW MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MAIN AREA OF HEAVIER SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH SYSTEM
HAS PASSED S OF UPPER MI. HOWEVER...RIGHT ENTRANCE OF UPPER JET
STREAK HAS ASSISTED IN SPREADING -SN ACROSS UPPER MI DURING THE
NIGHT. WITH CLOUDS/-SN...TEMPS THIS MORNING ARE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER
THAN THE LAST FEW MORNINGS...A GOOD 30 DEGREES HIGHER IN SOME CASES.
THERE ARE NO SUBZERO READINGS TO BE FOUND THIS MORNING.

PER RADAR TRENDS...WIDESPREAD -SN WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING ESE AND
WILL END W TO E DURING THE MORNING...THOUGH A FEW -SHSN/FLURRIES MAY
LINGER INTO THE AFTN CNTRL AND E ALONG LAKE BREEZE ENHANCED WIND
SHIFT. WITH INCREASING SUN ANGLE...WE`RE GETTING INTO THE TIME OF
YEAR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SUCH DIURNAL -SHSN DEVELOPMENT. HIGHRES
RAPID REFRESH IS PARTICULARLY NOTABLE WITH AFTN -SHSN IT DEVELOPS
ALONG WIND SHIFT. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE TEENS N TO
LOWER 20S S. AS WINDS SHIFT OFF ICE COVERED LAKE SUPERIOR...TEMPS
MAY FALL SEVERAL DEGREES ALONG THE LAKE IN THE AFTN.

SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER NRN ONTARIO TONIGHT. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF STRATOCU OFF LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT UNLESS THE N TO NE
WINDS OPEN UP SUFFICIENT WATER/BKN ICE ON THE UPWIND SIDE OF THE
LAKE. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE S AND W IN ASSOCIATION WITH SHORTWAVE TRACKING SE THRU THE
DAKOTAS/MN. OTHERWISE...WITH HIGH BUILDING OVER NRN ONTARIO...PRES
GRADIENT MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP WINDS UP DURING THE NIGHT AND
PREVENT TEMPS FROM CRASHING. ON THE OTHER HAND...VERY DRY AIR MASS
WILL BE ADVECTING INTO THE AREA (PRECIPITABLE WATER FALLS TO
15-25PCT OF NORMAL...LOWEST OVER THE E). WITH LOW-LEVEL WINDS
ADVECTING SHALLOW VERY COLD AIR S AND W OFF ONTARIO AND ACROSS
NEARLY COMPLETELY FROZEN LAKE SUPERIOR...FAVORED THE LOWER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE FOR MINS...ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF THE DRY COLUMN. ALTHOUGH
FCST MINS RANGE FROM ROUGHLY 0 TO THE LOWER -TEENS...TEMPS IN
TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS COULD FALL TOWARD -20F IF SKIES END UP MAINLY
CLEAR AND WINDS DECOUPLE COMPLETELY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EST TUE MAR 4 2014

QUIET LONG TERM CONTINUES. MAIN FEATURES TO NOTE WILL BE LIGHT
SNOWFALL CHANCES LATE THU INTO FRI AND WARMER AIRMASS LATE THIS WEEK
AND POSSIBLY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON WED AHEAD OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SET TO MOVE WELL N OF THE CWA LATE THU AND THU
NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA BETWEEN
ROUGHLY 06Z FRI AND 18Z FRI. WHILE THE FRONT WILL HELP FORCE SOME
PRECIP...THE MAIN FORCING MECHANISM WILL BE A SECONDARY WAVE THAT
MODELS SHOW CATCHING UP TO WITH AND MOVING WITH THE FRONT AS IS
MOVES THROUGH THE CWA. MAY SEE SOME LIGHT AND MINOR SNOW OVER WRN
UPPER MI THU...BUT BETTER PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE BETWEEN 06Z AND 18Z
FRI. AT THIS POINT...AGREE WITH PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT 2-4 INCHES OF
SNOW SEEMS REASONABLE.

850MB TEMPS INCREASE PRETTY RAPIDLY ON WED FROM A RANGE OF -15C TO
-20C AT 12Z WED TO AROUND -11C BY 00Z THU WITH SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS.
GIVEN A VERY COLD START TO THE DAY WITH TUE NIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO TEENS BELOW ZERO AND THAT MODELS INDICATE MIXING TO ONLY
AOB 900MB...HIGH TEMPS ON WED WILL ONLY RANGE FROM 10F-20F...WARMEST
NEAR THE WI BORDER. AN 850MB THERMAL RIDGE MOVES TO THE CENTRAL CWA
AROUND 00Z FRI WITH 850MB TEMP APPROACHING 0C AS THE RIDGE PASSES.
SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE STRONG IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH 850MB
WINDS UP TO 45KTS...LEADING TO SFC GUSTS UP TO 25KTS OR HIGHER.
INCREASED HIGHS ON THU TO 20F-30F...BUT COULD SEE HIGHS ABOVE 30
OVER WRN UPPER MI. FRI SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 20S TO AROUND
30...WARMEST OVER SCENTRAL AND ERN UPPER MI WHERE THE FRONT WILL NOT
ARRIVE AS EARLY. AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRI...850MB
TEMPS DROP BACK DOWN TO THE -10C TO -15C RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND. MODELS THEN INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR A SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT MODEL AGREEMENT IS POOR SO CONFIDENCE IS VERY
LIMITED.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2014

EXPECT ANY LINGERING DIURNAL STRATOCU TO DISSIPATE OVER THE TAF
SITES BY EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEREAFTER UNDER BUILDING SFC
HIGH PRESSURE. NEARLY COMPLETELY ICE COVERED LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD
VIRTUALLY ELIMINATE STRATOCU FORMATION UNDER DEVELOPING NE FLOW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 505 AM EST TUE MAR 4 2014

EXPECT WINDS TODAY MOSTLY UNDER 15KT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. ALTHOUGH
WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME TONIGHT AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER NRN
ONTARIO...EXPECT WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 20KT TONIGHT THRU WED NIGHT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL THEN BE ON THE INCREASE THU AHEAD OF A LOW PRES
TROF APPROACHING FROM THE W. OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR...WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15-25KT. TROF WILL CROSS THE UPPER LAKES FRI...BRINGING
A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW. WHILE THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF 15-25KT WINDS
BEHIND TROF...WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER FRI INTO SAT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON