Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 251836
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
236 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 422 AM EDT MON APR 25 2016

00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW CONFLUENT NW FLOW
ALF INTO THE UPR LKS BTWN NRN BRANCH CLOSED LO OVER NRN QUEBEC AND A
SRN BRANCH SHRTWV OVER THE WRN GREAT LKS AHEAD OF STRONG SHRTWV
MOVING SLOWLY ENEWD THRU THE NCENTRAL PLAINS. ALTHOUGH MOISTER
AIR...WITH 00Z PWATS AS HI AS 1.16 INCH AT MPX /ALMOST 250 PCT OF
NORMAL/ AND 0.92 INCH AT GRB /190 PCT OF NORMAL/...HAS PUSHED
FARTHER N AHEAD OF THIS SHRTWV AND SFC/H85 LO OVER ERN SDAKOTA...
DRIER AIR ON THE SRN FLANK OF BONE DRY AIRMASS IN ONTARIO /WHERE 00Z
PWAT AT YPL WAS ONLY 0.12 INCH/ MAINTAINED BY PROXIMITY OF THE
CONFLUENCE ZN BTWN THE BRANCHES SLOWED THE ARRIVAL OF HEAVIER RA
THAT HAS BEEN FCST RECENTLY. HOWEVER...LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A
BAND OF RA N OF A NEARLY STNRY H85 WARM FNT STRETCHING FM CENTRAL MN
ACRS NCENTRAL WI IS PUSHING NE THRU UPR MI. UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF 120KT
H3 JET MAX OVER SW QUEBEC AS WELL AS SHARP H85-7 FGEN N OF THE ARPCHG
WARM FNT APPEAR TO BE SGNFT FORCING MECHANISMS. BUT THIS BAND IS
RATHER NARROW...WITH DRY SLOTTING IN ADVANCE OF THE APRCHG SHRTWV
CAUSING A SHARP SRN EDGE TO THIS BAND OF HEAVIER RA THAT IS ALREADY
PUSHING N ACRS THE WI BORDER.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THRU TNGT FOCUS ON POPS/QPF TODAY AHEAD OF SLOWLY
APRCHG SHRTWV AND THEN DRYING TRENDS/POTENTIAL FOR SOME SN TNGT AS
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE/SOMEWHAT COLDER AIR FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF
SHEARING SHRTWV THRU WI.

TODAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING BAND OF HEAVIER RA
CONTINUING NE THRU THE CWA BUT TENDING TO DIMINISH AS THE FGEN
FORCING WEAKENS AS THIS BAND MOVES FARTHER N INTO LINGERING DRY AIR
MAINTAINED BY NW FLOW ALF OVER ONTARIO AND AWAY FM NEARLY STNRY FNT
LINGERING IN WI. THEN SOME DRY SLOTTING WILL IMPACT MAINLY THE
SCENTRAL BEFORE DPVA/LARGER SCALE QVECTOR CNVGC IN ADVANCE OF THE
APRCHG SHRTWV ARRIVE W-E AND CAUSE THE PCPN AREA TO EXPAND AGAIN/
INTENSIFY IN THE AFTN. WITH CLD COVER/RA...WL MAINTAIN PREVIOUS FCST
WELL BLO NORMAL MAX TEMPS NOT FAR FM 40.

TNGT...SHRTWV SLIDING ENEWD IS PROGGED TO SHEAR OUT AND MOVE MORE
QUICKLY TO THE E ACRS WI AS IT ENTERS THE UPR CONFLUENCE ZN BTWN THE
NRN AND SRN BRANCHES. WITH DIMINISHING DYNAMIC SUPPORT/MID LVL
DRYING ACCOMPANYING THE SHEARING SHRTWV...EXPECT PCPN COVERAGE/
INTENSITY TO GRDLY DIMINISH. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR AS THE
LLVL FLOW BACKS MORE TO THE NE...GUIDANCE HINTS THE PCPN WL AT LEAST
MIX WITH SOME SN BEFORE ENDING ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN TIER AS H85
TEMPS FALL AOB 0C. THE NAM INDICATES SEVERAL INCHES OF WET SN COULD
ACCUMULATE OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE NCNTRL WITH LINGERING SLGTLY
CYC NE UPSLOPE FLOW AIDING COOLING/LIFT. THIS MODEL IS SLOWER THAN
MOST OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE IN SHEARING OUT THE SHRTWV/BRINGING IN
LARGER SCALE QVECTOR DVGC/HOLDING ON TO LLVL CYC FLOW. BUT SINCE
SOME OF THE OTHER HI RES MODELS INDICATE SOME PERSISTENT HIER QPF
OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE NCENTRAL...WL MAINTAIN SOME HIER POPS
IN THIS AREA ALONG WITH A HIER QPF.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WITH
ONLY A COUPLE MINIMAL CHANCES FOR RAIN. POTENTIAL FOR A SHORTWAVE TO
BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE SCENTRAL LATE WED NIGHT AND
THU...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THE OTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN IS OVER THE
SRN CWA SUN INTO NEXT MON...BUT MODELS DISAGREE SUBSTANTIALLY AND
ARE ALSO VARIABLE RUN TO RUN...SO POPS WILL BE SLIGHT CHANCE AT BEST.

TEMPS WILL BE MILD WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 40S TO MAYBE UPPER
50S...COOLEST NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
MID 20S INTERIOR TO MID 30S NEAR THE GREAT LAKES...COOLEST TEMPS
DOWN TO THE LOW-MID 20S ON TUE NIGHT. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY FOR THE MOST PART...WITH MORE CLOUDS WHERE/IF PRECIP
DEVELOPS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016

WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND A SHALLOW E FLOW OF CHILLY...MOIST AIR TO
THE N OF A WEAKENING WAVE OF LOW PRES TRACKING E ACROSS WI TO LWR MI
LATER THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT...EXPECT IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU TONIGHT. AS SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR ARRIVES
TONIGHT...RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW FOR A TIME AT
KCMX/KSAW BEFORE ENDING. STRONG DRYING WILL OCCUR TUE MORNING...
RESULTING IN QUICK IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AS LOW CLOUDS CLEAR
OUT...BEGINNING FIRST AT KCMX.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 349 AM EDT MON APR 25 2016

WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO AND WEAKENING LOW PRES
TRACKING E ALONG A STALLED FRONT S OF UPPER MI...STRONG E TO NE
WINDS WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR INTO TONIGHT. OVER THE
WESTERN LAKE WHERE COASTAL CONVERGENCE/FUNNELING ENHANCE E TO NE
WINDS...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. ACROSS
THE REST OF LAKE SUPERIOR...PLAN FOR WINDS OF 20-30KT. WINDS WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT/TUE MORNING...BUT MORE SO TUE NIGHT AS
THE NORTHERN ONTARIO HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE UPPER LAKES. E TO NE
WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 20KT WILL PREVAIL WED...THOUGH GUSTS TO 25 KTS
MAY OCCUR OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN
20KT THU/FRI ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE AS HIGH PRES SETTLES OVER THE
AREA.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EDT /MIDNIGHT CDT/ TUESDAY FOR LSZ162-
     263.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLA



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