Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 310526
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
126 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN IT. THE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY SHORTWAVE
RIDGING MOVING IN FOR SUN.

NAM SHOWS SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE
MOVING OUT TONIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO MEAN DIMINISHING POPS AND
PCPN THIS FORECAST PERIOD TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
TRAPPED AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL MEAN FOG WILL BE PREVALENT LATE
TONIGHT AND WILL BURN OFF IN THE MORNING WHICH IS ALREADY COVERED IN
THE GOING FORECAST. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES
AND WILL SEE SOME SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY. WILL ALSO BE MOSTLY DRY WITH
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GETTING INTO THE FAR WEST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SUN NIGHT AND MON...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED EXIT REGION OF
THE UPPER JET WILL CATCH UP WITH A SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT INITIALLY
FROM FROM THE SRN MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THE SHORTWAVE AND
JET EXIT REGION MOVING ACROSS THE CWA MON...WITH A 997MB LOW FORMING
ALONG THE MN/ONTARIO BORDER AND DEEPENING TO AROUND 988MB WHILE
MOVING TO HUDSON BAY BY 06Z TUE. THIS BRINGS THE COLD FRONT INTO WRN
LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z MON...WRN UPPER MI BY 18Z MON...CENTRAL UPPER
MI BY 00Z TUE AND JUST E OF THE CWA BY 06Z TUE. WHILE PRECIP LOOKS
TO BE A CERTAINTY ACROSS THE CWA...EXACT PRECIP AMOUNTS AND SEVERE
POTENTIAL IS A LOT MORE UNCERTAIN DUE TO A COUPLE OF FACTORS. MODEL
QPF FIELDS HINT AT THE FORMATION OF A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX DURING THIS
TIME FRAME...BUT CONFIDENCE OF IF/WHEN/WHERE THAT COULD HAPPEN IS
QUITE LOW. ALSO...WHILE THE KINEMATICS OF THIS SYSTEM ARE QUITE
STRONG /0-6KM SHEAR OF 40-50KTS AND 0-1KM SHEAR OF 20-30KTS/...THE
MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE. WITH THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT...EXPECT BEST CHANCES FOR CAPE BUILDUP WILL BE OVER THE
ERN CWA WHERE CLOUDS/PRECIP WILL NOT MOVE IN AS EARLY. STILL TOO
EARLY/UNCERTAIN TO HAVE GOOD FEEL FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL...BUT IT CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT.

TUE LOOKS DRY FOR THE MOST PART AS UPPER RIDGING MOVES IN BEHIND THE
PREVIOUS SYSTEM. TEMPS SHOULD BE SEASONAL AS 850MB TEMPS WILL BE
9-11C...LEADING TO HIGH TEMPS FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

FORECAST FOR WED THROUGH NEXT SAT IS UNCERTAIN AS ZONAL FLOW LOOKS
TO BE THE OVERALL PATTERN BUT MODELS VARY SIGNIFICANTLY FROM EACH
OTHER AND FROM RUN TO RUN ON A FEW POTENTIAL ROUNDS OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVING THROUGH OR NEARBY. THE EXTENDED FORECAST DOES FAVOR
PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS...BUT TIMING/COVERAGE
IS QUITE UNCERTAIN. DEPENDING ON CLOUD/PRECIP COVERAGE...IT DOES
APPEAR A WARMING TREND IS IN STORE THROUGH AT LEAST THU...WITH TEMPS
RISING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. WILL USE CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE FOR
THE LAST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 126 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

EXPECT LINGERING VFR SC CIGS AT IWD AND CMX TO DISSIPATE AS HI PRES
BLDS OVER WRN UPR MI UNDER SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING UPR
DISTURBANCE. WITH LGT WINDS UNDER THE BLDG HI...EXPECT RADIATION FOG
TO DVLP AND DROP CONDITIONS TO LIFR AND EVEN VLIFR IN THE PRESENCE
OF NOCTURNAL COOLING/LINGERING HI SFC DEWPTS. A MORE STEADY...
UPSLOPE N WIND OFF LK SUP WL MAINTAIN IFR CONDITIONS AT SAW. THE
PRESENCE OF THESE CLDS WL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR THICKER RADIATION
FOG AT SAW. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...EXPECT LINGERING FOG/LO CLDS TO
MIX OUT AND GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS. THIS PROCESS WL BE SLOWEST
AT SAW AS AN UPSLOPE NE VEERING SE WIND DVLPS ON THE WRN FLANK OF
SFC HI SHIFTING TO THE E. A STRENGTHENING SSW WIND WL OVERSPREAD THE
UPR LKS THIS EVNG BTWN THE DEPARTING SFC HI AND AN APRCHG COLD FNT.
WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING...A LLJ WL DVLP AND MAY BE SUFFICIENTLY
STRONG TO BRING MARGINAL LLWS TO AT LEAST THE WRN IWD/CMX TAF SITES.
RIGHT NOW...IT APPEARS THE INCOMING AIRMASS WL BE TOO DRY TO CAUSE
ANY LO CLDS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 20 KTS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR
A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS SUNDAY NIGHT. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
WIDESPREAD FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUN MORNING AND THEN FORM AGAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...07





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