Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 281151
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
751 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 536 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

MAIN CONCERN AND TIME PUT INTO DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING AND
THUNDERSTORM (POTENTIALLY STRONG) CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

A FRONT IS STALLED JUST S OF THE CWA OR OVER THE SRN CWA. E WIND ON
THE N SIDE OF THE FRONT HAVE PULLED MOISTURE FROM ONTARIO INTO NRN
UPPER MI. AS FAR AS CAN BE SEEN IN WEBCAM IMAGERY AND WITH
OBSERVATION PLATFORMS...THE MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN A LOW STRATUS
IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE...AND IS A DENSE FOG
FARTHER INLAND. FOG APPEARS TO BE MOST DENSE OVER NCENTRAL UPPER MI
FROM THE NRN HURON MOUNTAIN TO WFO MQT TO KSAW WHERE WEAK UPSLOPE
FLOW IS ENHANCING THE FOG SOME. THE ESCANABA AREA IS ALSO SEEING
LOCALLY DENSE FOG AT TIMES...BUT IT APPEARS TO BE MORE SPORADIC.
MOST HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS HANDLED THE FOG DEVELOPMENT WELL...AND
THEY SHOW DISSIPATION STARTING AFTER 8PM...WITH SIGNIFICANT VIS
IMPROVEMENT BY 9PM. EXPECT MARINE FOG TO CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY.

MOVING ON TO THE AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION. THAT STALLED FRONT IS
GOING TO SHIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WE WILL
CERTAINLY SEE WARMER AIR MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH 850MB TEMPS
INCREASING FROM 12C THIS MORNING TO 15C THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH
MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THESE FACTORS WILL INCREASE THE
INSTABILITY...WITH CAPE VALUES INCREASING TO 1000-1500 J/KG OVER THE
WRN HALF OF UPPER MI. DEEP LAYER 0-6KM SHEAR WILL BE DECENT AT 30-35
KTS...BUT LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE WEAK. THIS WILL SUPPORT SOME
ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS IN SOME OF THE CONVECTION THAT MAY
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY AS STORMS INTERACT WITH LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES
WHICH COULD IMPROVE LOW LEVEL INFLOW INTO STORMS. IF STORMS
DEVELOP...COULD CERTAINLY SEE SMALL HAIL AND STRONG WINDS IN THE
STRONGEST STORMS...WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR LARGER HAIL. AS FOR
FORCING FOR CONVECTION...MODELS DEPICT A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER
WRN UPPER MI DURING PEAK HEATING. ENOUGH OF THE MODELS (ESPECIALLY
HIGH-RES) WERE SHOWING CONVECTION TO BOOST CONFIDENCE OF
DEVELOPMENT. MORE IN QUESTION IS COVERAGE AND ESPECIALLY STRENGTH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

PRIMARY WEATHER ISSUES IN THE LONG TERM ARE TSRA STRENGTH ON FRIDAY
AND MIN TEMPS/FREEZE POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

SHORTWAVE RIDGE IS OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY EVENING WITH
BROAD TROUGH FM CNTRL CANADA BACK OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. ANY ISOLD
SHRA/TSRA ON THURSDAY AFTN SHOULD FADE AWAY WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND MINUS ADDITIONAL LARGER SCALE LIFTING MECHANISM. ANOTHER
SMALL CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA LATER AT NIGHT OVER THE WEST AHEAD OF
BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT OUT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SOME HINT OF WEAKER SHORTWAVE
TIED TO THAT MOISTURE TRANSPORT. IF THAT OCCURS...BETTER CHANCE FOR
ORGANIZED SHRA AND POSSIBLE TSRA LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

AS CENTRAL CANADA TROUGH ALOFT DROPS ACROSS MANITOBA AND NORTHERN
ONTARIO ON FRIDAY ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE AND SFC COLD FRONT MOVES
FROM NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. DECENT AGREEMENT FM
THE MODELS THAT FROPA OCCURS FRIDAY AFTN. MAIN QUESTION REMAINS IN
HOW MUCH INSTABILITY BUILDS UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND WOULD
CERTAINLY BE AFFECTED BY ANY SHRA/TSRA AROUND DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. OVERALL THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT THAT MLCAPES WILL BE AT
LEAST 500J/KG AND MAY BE OVER 1000 J/KG BY TIME FRONT WORKS ACROSS
IN THE AFTN. GREATEST INSTABILITY IS LOCATED OVER WI...BUT IS
FORECAST TO EXPAND OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR UP TO 35 KTS WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR
ORGANIZED STORMS...BUT POTENTIAL WILL BE HELD DOWN IF MORE
WIDESPREAD SHRA AND TSRA ARE AROUND EARLIER IN THE DAY. MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY NOT AN ISSUE AS PERSISTENT H85-H7 MOISTURE TRANSPORT
BOOSTS PWATS OVER 1.5 INCHES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FAIR TO
SAY IF THERE IS AT LEAST SOME INSOLATION ON FRIDAY...THERE WOULD BE
RISK OF AT LEAST STRONG STORMS DURING THE AFTN. SPC DAY3 RISK HAS
MARGINAL CATEGORY MAINLY SOUTH OF HERE INTO WHERE BETTER CHANCE OF
HIGHER INSTABILITY RESIDES. FRONT MOVES ACROSS ALL OF UPR MICHIGAN
AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. IT WILL PROBABLY TAKE UNTIL THE FRONT
HAS EXITED BEFORE CHANCES OF RAIN ARE ELIMINATED DUE TO DEEP
MOISTURE PERSISTING EVEN BEHIND THE SFC FRONT AND POSSIBILITY OF
SHORTWAVES WORKING THROUGH ON EDGE OF LARGE SCALE TROUGH. POPS
HIGHEST FRIDAY WITH THIS FROPA.

CONFLUENCE ALOFT ON WESTERN EDGE OF TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC LEADS TO LARGE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON
SATURDAY. CHILLY DAY FOR LATE MAY STANDARDS ON SATURDAY AS TEMPS
EVEN INLAND TOWARD WI BORDER MAY ONLY STRUGGLE INTO THE 50S DESPITE
GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE. GRADIENT ONSHORE WINDS NEAR LK SUPERIOR WILL
KEEP TEMPS THERE IN THE 40S. AIRMASS QUITE DRY WITH PWATS DROPPING
TO 0.25-0.35 INCHES BY SATURDAY NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS/CLEAR SKIES AND
DRY AIRMASS POINT TO STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AND WITH DWPNTS ON
SATURDAY BLO 30F...A FREEZE IS LIKELY ON SATURDAY NIGHT. LACK OF ANY
ONSHORE FLOW LATER SATURDAY NIGHT FAVORS EVEN SHORELINE AREAS NEAR
LK SUPERIOR AND MOST OF LK MICHIGAN FOR MIN TEMPS AT LEAST IN THE
LOWER 30S WITH STRONG FROST POSSIBILITY. WEAK EASTERLY WINDS ON
SOUTHERLY EDGE OF SFC HIGH COULD KEEP BAY OF GREEN BAY SHORE IN FAR
SCNTRL WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS OVER THE CWA. ANOTHER CHILLY DAY FOR
SUNDAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. INLAND TEMPS NEAR 60 DEGREES WHICH
IS OVER 10 DEGREES BLO NORMAL. TEMPS ALONG LK SUPERIOR WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 40S OR 50S. WENT ON LOW SIDE FOR TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT
AND INCLUDED FROST MENTION AGAIN. SOME BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE
INDICATED MINS BACK TO AROUND 32 DEGREES WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE
AS RIDGE AND DRY AIRMASS LINGERS...ESPECIALLY CNTRAL AND EAST.

REST OF EXTENDED FEATURES A WARMING TREND. UPPER LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS
OUT IN WAKE OF THE TROUGH THIS WEEKEND. HIGH AT THE SFC SLOWLY MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST OVER NEW ENGLAND AND MID ATLANTIC PUTTING PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES WITHIN RETURN FLOW. H85 TEMPS AS EARLY AS TUESDAY RISE
TO 14C...WHICH WOULD YIELD HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S INLAND FROM THE
GREAT LAKES. MAY SEE SOME MID CLOUDS SPILL ACROSS UPR LAKES ON
TUESDAY DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION H85-H7. PROBABLY NOT MUCH RISK OF
SHRA THOUGH AS FORCING AND MOISTURE IS MARGINAL AT BEST. MAYBE BETTER
CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA ON WEDNESDAY AS TROUGH ALOFT HEADS ACROSS
WESTERN CONUS. BETTER CHANCES PROBABLY STAY WEST YET CLOSER TO THE
SFC LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS LONG AS SYSTEM DOES NOT SPEED
UP TO THE EAST...GOOD CHANCE THAT TEMPS MAY TOP OUT AROUND 80
DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 749 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

FOG AND LOW CIGS WILL BURN OFF THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...A WARM
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...LEADING TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINLY WESTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN. HAVE INCLUDED -SHRA AT KCMX...BUT LEFT THUNDER OUT GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY IN THUNDER COVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 536 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS FOR MOST
OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY WHERE THEY MAY INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS ACROSS EASTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. FOG
WILL LINGER THROUGH INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL BE DENSE AT TIMES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ005-006.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...TITUS



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