Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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159
FXUS63 KMQT 280805
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
405 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 404 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

UPPER LOW AND SFC LOW OVER IOWA WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TODAY AS IT
RUNS INTO PERSISTENT RIDGING OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO AND LK SUPERIOR
REGION. BANDS OF LIGHT SHOWERS ARE TRYING TO MOVE OVER NORTHERN WI
BUT GREATER COVERAGE OVER WESTERN WI INTO MN CLOSER TO THE SFC LOW.
IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE GRADIENT THIS MORNING WITH DWPNTS STILL IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS OVER WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN WI BUT AS HIGH
AS 40 DEGREES OVER WESTERN WI. MAIN IMPACT THUS FAR FM THE UPPER LOW
IS A LOT OF THICK HIGH CLOUDS. INCREASED SKY COVER TODAY TO PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AS A RESULT. A SPRINKLE MAY AFFECT FAR SW UPR
MICHIGAN LATE THIS AFTN INTO EARLY EVENING...BUT GIVEN THE DRY AIR
IN LOW-LEVELS AND SEEING THE BANDS OF RAIN DRYING UP AS THEY LIFT
TOWARD UPR MICHIGAN ATTM...GOING TO KEEP WITH A DRY FORECAST. FOR
TEMPS...MORE CLOUDS AND H85 TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN WED
AFTN POINT TO SLIGHTLY LOWER READINGS THAN WED FOR HIGHS. EXPECT
NEAR 50 TO LOW 50S INLAND NEAR WI BORDER AND AROUND 40 ALONG LK
SUPERIOR WITH PERSISTENT NE WIND OUT OF HUDSON BAY. DWPNTS AND RH
VALUES CRASHED ON WED AFTN...AND AS ALLUDED TO ALREADY...THE DWPNTS
AT LEAST FOR WEST CWA ARE STILL VERY LOW ATTM. EXPECT LESS MIXING
TODAY THOUGH WITH THE MID-HIGH CLOUDS...SO DO NOT HAVE RH VALUES AS
LOW AS WED. BUT STILL MAY SEE RH DOWN TO 25-30 PCT IN THE AFTN. IF
SKIES BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY...DWPNTS/RH WOULD LIKELY RETURN TO SIMILAR
VALUES AS WED.

MID-HIGH CLOUDS STILL IN PICTURE FOR TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW SLIDES
SLOWLY ACROSS WI AND LOWER MICHIGAN AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPS
ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO TOWARD UPPER GREAT LAKES. SIMILAR TO THIS
MORNING THE RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL WILL BE CUT DOWN SO
INCREASED TEMPS TO UPR 20S OVER COLD SPOTS OF NORTHERN CWA AND
IN THE LOW OR EVEN MID 30S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

HUDSON BAY HI PRES WL REMAIN THE DOMINANT INFLUENCE ON UPR MI INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WX TO THE AREA
UNTIL AT LEAST MON. THERE WL BE A LO PRES DVLPG OVER THE PLAINS ON
SAT ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG DISTURBANCE LIFTING OUT OF A SRN BRANCH
UPR TROF OVER THE SW CONUS. BUT SINCE THIS SHRTWV/SFC LO WL
ENCOUNTER A CONFLUENT NW FLOW ALF ON THE SW FLANK OF PERSISTENT NRN
BRANCH TROFFING OVER QUEBEC...THE LO PRES/ACCOMPANYING DEEP MSTR AND
PCPN WL BE SHUNTED TO THE S AS THE SHRTWV SHEARS OUT THRU THE OH
RIVER VALLEY. MANY OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW A PAIR OF SHRTWVS
IN THE NRN BRANCH NW FLOW SLIDING SE JUST TO THE E OF THE UPR LKS
OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT DRYNESS OF LLVL AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NE FLOW OUT OF THE HUDSON BAY HI PRES...WHICH IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY
FAVORED TO BRING DRY WX TO UPR MI...SHOULD LIMIT THE IMPACT TO JUST
SOME CLDS OVER MAINLY THE ERN CWA.

TEMPS SHOULD RUN AOB NORMAL THRU THE COMING WEEKEND WITH H85 TEMPS
FCST FM ABOUT 0C TO A FEW DEGREES BLO 0C. EARLY MRNG LOWS WL DIP TO
ARND 30 AT THE COLDER INTERIOR LOCATIONS ON SAT THRU MON WITH DRY
AIR DOMINATING AND FAVORING GOOD NOCTURNAL COOLING...BUT A GOOD DEAL
OF SUNSHINE WL ALSO ALLOW FOR SHARP DIURNAL TEMP RECOVERY DURING THE
AFTN TO AT LEAST NEAR 60 WHERE THERE IS MORE SUNSHINE AND AWAY FM
THE COOLING INFLUENCE OF THE LKS.

IN THE LONGER TERM...TEMPS SHOULD WARM UP AT LEAST BRIEFLY EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE HUDSON BAY HI PRES DRIFTS FARTHER E TOWARD THE CNDN
MARITIMES AND UPR MI BECOMES DOMINATED BY A WSW FLOW ON THE NW FLANK
OF A RDG AXIS EXTENDING SWWD FM THAT HI TO ANOTHER HI PRES CENTER
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SOME OF THE MODELS SHOW H85 TEMPS
REBOUNDING TO AS HI AS 8C LATE MON INTO TUE. BUT ANY WARMUP IS
LIKELY TO BE BRIEF AS THE UPR TROF OVER QUEBEC IS FCST TO DEEPEN AND
STRENGTHEN THE NW FLOW ALOFT INTO THE UPR LKS NEXT WEEK. SHRTWVS
DROPPING THRU THIS NW FLOW AND ATTENDANT COLD FROPAS WL BRING SOME
COOLER WX ALONG WITH AT LEAST A CHC FOR SOME SHOWERS TO THE UPR LKS
AS EARLY AS TUE. TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS AND ABSENCE OF
MSTR INFLOW WL LIMIT POPS TO THE LO CHC CATEGORY DURING THIS TIME.

DESPITE THE RECENT MDT TO HEAVY RA AND EXPECTED AOB NORMAL TEMPS
THRU THE WEEKEND...THE UPCOMING EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WX BEFORE
GREENUP MAY CAUSE FIRE WX ISSUES TO BECOME A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY
EARLY NEXT WEEK DURING THE EXPECTED BRIEF WARMUP. SOME OF THE LONGER
RANGE MODELS SHOW A TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT DVLPG FOR A TIME BEFORE
THE INITIAL COLD FROPA ON TUE. IF THE STRONGER WSW FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FNT OCCURS DURING DAYTIME WARMING/MIXING...GUSTY WINDS/LO RH COULD
HEIGHTEN FIRE WX ISSUES.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 139 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SCATTERED TO
BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS AND NE WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 12 KTS. MARGINAL
LLWS MAY OCCUR AT IWD EARLY THIS MORNING WITH EAST WINDS AROUND 30
KTS AT 1 KFT. DAYTIME MIXING AND ENHANCED LAKE BREEZE MAY RESULT IN
WIND GUSTS NEARING 20 KTS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AT KSAW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

LAKE SUPERIOR WILL REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN HI PRES NEAR HUDSON BAY
AND A PAIR OF LO PRES SYSTEMS DRIFTING E THRU THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY/
FAR SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES THRU THIS WEEKEND. THIS PRES PATTERN FAVORS
CONTINUED NE WINDS UNDER 20 KTS FOR MOST OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR STRONGER ENE WINDS UP TO 25 KTS WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN
LAKE...WHERE TERRAIN INFLUENCES WILL FUNNEL AND ACCENTUATE THE NE
FLOW...TODAY AND PERHAPS SAT WHEN THE PRES GRADIENT WILL BE
SHARPEST. AS A HI PRES RIDGE DRIFTS OVER THE UPPER LAKES SUN
NIGHT...WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT. WSW WINDS UP TO 20 KTS WILL
PREVAIL EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THIS RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE S AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT DROPPING THRU ONTARIO.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...KC



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