Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 222008
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
408 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO QUEBEC OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT...THE PRESSURE
RISE/FALL COUPLET AND TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS
AFTERNOONS GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS/AS HIGH AS 35-40KTS IN SOME
PLACES/ WILL EXIT THE REGION BY EARLY THIS EVENING. UNTIL
THEN...EXPECT A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS OVER MAINLY EASTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH ABOUT 3Z TONIGHT AS THE RISE/FALL COUPLET
HEADS EASTWARD. DUE TO THE SHORT-LIVED NATURE OF THE GUSTS OPTED NOT
TO PUT UP A GALE WARNING AT THIS TIME...THOUGH IF EVENING SHIFT SEES
HIGHER AND MORE FREQUENT GUSTS THEY CAN UPGRADE. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AS OF 20Z WILL SETTLE INTO THE
GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT...WHERE IT WILL REMAIN THROUGH MID WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOWWINDS TO LIGHTEN UP CONSIDERABLY...ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION GOES...MODELS SUGGEST SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH A
SHORTWAVE SWINGING AROUND THE EXITING LOW...HOWEVER DID NOT HAVE
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST WEST AND CENTRAL. DRIER
AIR IS ALREADY MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE CWA AND SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY
HAD A DIFFICULT TIME DEVELOPING INTO MUCH OF ANYTHING
TODAY...GENERALLY ONLY WITH THE FRONT. KEPT ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
EAST UNTIL THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA. HAVE KEPT PATCHY-AREAS OF FOG
IN THE FORECAST ON EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE EVENING BECAUSE
OF SEVERAL REPORTS OF FOG FROM SHIPS/OBSERVED ON SATELLITE. FOR
TONIGHT...EXPECT PRIMARILY DECREASING CLOUDS. LOWS WILL DROP INTO
THE UPPER 40S AND 50S...COOLEST INLAND FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT A DRY DAY WITH
SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 60S TO THE LOW 70S...COOLEST NEAR THE GREAT LAKES.

ON LAST NOTE IS WITH THE STRONG WINDS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY THERE
HAVE BEEN OBSERVATIONS AND REPORTS OF SEICHE ACTIVITY. WITH THE
STRONG WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEASTWARD INTO QUEBEC...EXPECT THIS TO
CONTINUE BUT BECOME LESS PRONOUNCED. WITH SEICHE ACTIVITY/WATER
LEVEL FLUCTUATIONS...WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE TONIGHT...AND WAVE
HEIGHTS OF 2 TO 4 FEET...EXPECT THAT RIP CURRENTS ARE LIKELY ON
BEACHES WITH PRE-EXISTING RIP CURRENT CHANNELS. THIS INCLUDES
BEACHES ALONG ALGER COUNTY AND MIDDLE BAY IN MARQUETTE. KEPT THE
SWIM RISK MODERATE FOR ALGER AND MARQUETTE COUNTY THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...DESPITE LOWER WAVE HEIGHTS. KEPT A
MODERATE SWIM RISK FOR ALGER COUNTY THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH
WAVE HEIGHTS OF 3 TO 4 FEET DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE RIGHT OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE A QUIET
END TO THE WORK WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
NORMAL. UPPER LOW CURRENTLY JUST OFFSHORE OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WILL MOVE ONSHORE AND ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. AS THE UPPER LOW ROUNDS THE TOP OF/FLATTENS THE CENTRAL U.S. UPPER
RIDGE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK IT WILL DIVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REAMPLIFYING THE UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN U.S.

AS THE UPPER AND SURFACE LOW MOVE OVER UPPER MICHIGAN FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN COOL OFF TO
SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK UNDER THE COOL UPPER TROUGH ALL BUT GUARANTEEING A TOP TEN
COLDEST JULY.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD WIND DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE
TROUGH AXIS JUST EAST OF THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SITUATED OVER NORTH CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD INTO QUEBEC THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT CEILINGS TO BOUNCE BETWEEN MVFR/VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE LOW PUSH THROUGH. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS FOR ALL THREE SITES...FINALLY CALMING AFTER THE 00Z/6Z
TIME FRAME WHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS. UNTIL THEN...EXPECT
CMX TO CONTINUE TO GUST TO 35-40KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THEN
TAPER OFF TO LESS THAN 15KTS LATE TONIGHT. KIWD/KSAW WILL SEE GUSTS
UP TO 25-30 MPH THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES IN OVER THE AREA.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT
402 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

LOW PRESSURE CROSSING FROM NORTH CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR INTO QUEBEC
OVERNIGHT WILL BRING GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. GALE
FORCE GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA...AND ARE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...AS HIGH PRESSURE MAKES ITS
WAY IN LATER TONIGHT WINDS WILL LIGHTEN UP. &&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...MCD
MARINE...MCD





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