Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 130453
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1153 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

.AVIATION...
AFTER A BOUT OF DRIZZLE AND SOME CIGS FLIRTING WITH IFR THIS
EVENING...CIGS HAVE BEEN LIFTING DURING THE LAST TWO HOURS AS
DRIER AIR ENTERS THE REGION AND DRIZZLE INTENSITY WANES. WITH
LOWER DEWPOINTS AND HIGHER CIGS FARTHER TO THE NORTH...WILL KEEP
MVFR CIGS NEAR 012 PREVAILING WITH JUST A TEMPO WINDOW FROM 9-13Z
FOR MORE IFR. CIGS WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT AND SCATTER OUT TOMORROW
AND WILL KEEP THEM MVFR INTO THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON. BY EVENING
THESE MAY LIFT TO VFR NEAR 035 BUT IF THEY DONT SCATTER OUT THEY
WILL PROBABLY DROP BACK TO MVFR SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
THEM AT 035 BUT THIS NEEDS TO BE MONITORED. OTHERWISE NORTH WINDS
WILL PREVAIL NEAR 10-20KT THROUGH MIDDAY TOMORROW THEN DIMINISH
SLIGHTLY.

TR.92

&&

.UPDATE...
GRIDS AND CURRENTLY IN GOOD SHAPE...SO THERE WILL BE NO MID
EVENING FORECAST UPDATE. DFW HIT 60 DEGREE AT 9 PM...WHICH IS THE
COOLEST SINCE A LOW OF 59 DEGREES ON MAY 17. 75

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014/
THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS.
AREAS SOUTHEAST OF A TEMPLE...MEXIA...ATHENS LINE WILL LIKELY SEE
THE MOST INSTABILITY AND POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH
SUNSET THIS EVENING. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...STRONG COLD ADVECTION
AND PERSISTENT STRATUS AND DRIZZLE WERE OCCURRING. SCATTERED SHOWERS
WERE CONTINUING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES. COMBINED WITH THE
BRISK NORTH WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH...TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN OFF INTO
THE 60S NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 WHICH HAS BROUGHT A TRUE AUTUMN
FEEL TO THOSE AREAS.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTIES DURING THE
EVENING HOURS WITH A FEW LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. SATURATION WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR ON THE
SHALLOW FRONTAL INVERSION AND PLENTIFUL STRATUS...SO WE WILL
CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT MOS HIGH TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES ON
SATURDAY. THE BROAD SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TO TEXAS WILL SHIFT EAST ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LIGHT SOUTHEAST
WINDS AND WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO
CREEP BACK UP INTO THE 80S DESPITE CONTINUE CLOUDINESS IN THE
AREA. IN ADDITION...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS
THE AREA WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS RISING BACK INTO THE 60S. HAVE
TRIMMED SLIGHT CHANCES TO JUST THE FAR NORTHWEST AND RED RIVER
COUNTIES MONDAY WHERE WEAK WARM ADVECTION COULD GENERATE A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS.

ANOTHER...YET A MUCH WEAKER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OKLAHOMA
AND INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT...THEN INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS TUESDAY. THIS COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL OR WASH OUT ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS AND NOT BRING MUCH COOLING TO THE AREA. WHAT IT WILL
DO IS ACT AS A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
WITH A SHORTWAVE ALOFT MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
BOTH MECHANISMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE VIGOROUS...THUS WIDESPREAD
AND SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED FROM THE EARLY WEEK
SYSTEM.

THE UPPER HIGH WEST OF THE AREA WILL EXPAND EAST OVER TEXAS THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING OF THE
UPPER ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
TO HEAT BACK UP TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.

05/



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  58  73  65  83  71 /  20  10  10  10  10
WACO, TX              60  75  63  85  70 /  30  10  10  10  10
PARIS, TX             55  72  59  80  66 /  20  10  10  10  10
DENTON, TX            55  72  62  83  69 /  20  10  10  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          56  73  60  82  68 /  20  10  10  10  10
DALLAS, TX            58  74  64  83  71 /  20  10  10  10  10
TERRELL, TX           57  73  62  82  68 /  20  10  10  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         61  75  64  85  69 /  30  10  10  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            60  73  62  85  70 /  50  10  10  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     55  71  62  82  68 /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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