Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 221545 AAA
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1045 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2016

.UPDATE...
This morning`s sounding shows subsidence remains plentiful thanks
to mid-level high pressure which is entrenched over the region. A
weak surface low is presently sliding northwestward on the
underbelly of the aformentioned high, and producing a few showers
across the Mid-Texas Coast. Southeasterly surface winds will
continue to gradually transport additional low-level moisture
into our far southeastern counties today. Can`t entirely rule out
a stray shower making it as far north as Milam, Robertson, or Leon
counties later this afternoon. The main story continues to be the
prospect for widespread rain chances this weekend and,
potentially, lingering through a good chunk of next week. More on
this after receipt of the 12Z model suite.

Otherwise, made a few updates to the short-term grids to account
for observational trends. Everything else looks to be on track.

Carlaw

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 644 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2016/
An upper level ridge will continue to provide quiet aviation
weather across the area today. Meanwhile, we will be watching the
approach of a storm system which is currently deepening along the
West Coast. Southerly low level flow will begin to increase
tomorrow morning as the West Coast system approaches. A stratus
layer is expected to develop over South Central TX early Friday
morning, then spread north into Central and North Texas at or
shortly after sunrise. MVFR cigs have been added to the extended
portion of the DFW TAF beginning 13Z Friday morning, and these
cigs should scatter out around midday Friday. Otherwise, VFR
conditions will prevail.

30


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2016/
The first day of fall will be far from cool with afternoon highs
reaching the lower and middle 90s. The only saving grace will be
that dewpoints will remain in the 60s and may even mix out into
the upper 50s across some of the northern zones. Dry air and
subsidence underneath the upper ridge will keep precipitation
chances very low today.

Low level moisture will be on the increase tonight in response to
a developing low pressure system across the west. This will keep
overnight lows in the 70s.

The low pressure system will move across the Central Rockies on
Friday and Saturday and result in an increase in large scale lift
and deeper moisture across Texas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
will be possible across the southern half of the region Friday
afternoon and region wide on Saturday. Can`t totally rule out a
few strong storms Saturday but it appears as if the best chances
will be northwest of the CWA.

A fairly strong cold front will approach the northwest zones
Saturday night/Sunday morning. The extended models begin to
diverge on solutions on Sunday. The 00Z ECMWF splits the upper
trough into two distinct systems and leaves the southern branch
wrapped up and west of the region through early next week. Under
this scenario, the cold front will most likely move slower and not
enter North Texas until Sunday evening. This scenario could also
produce an extended period of rain with a potential for some
flooding. The 00Z run of the GFS also tries to break a piece of
energy off from the main system on Sunday but never actually cuts
it off. Therefore, the upper trough stays a bit more progressive
which allows the cold front to move through the region quicker.
For now we will not make many changes to the previous forecast
package with regards to PoPs in the Sunday through Wednesday time
frame due the lack of model consistency. Therefore, the best
chance of showers and storms will be Sunday/Sunday night with
decreasing chances from northwest to southeast Monday through
Wednesday. Regardless of which solution, if any, pans out, one
thing that is certain is that much cooler and drier air will move
into North and Central Texas next week. Overnight lows Monday
through Wednesday will cool into the 50s in most locations and
afternoon highs will only reach the 70s and lower 80s.

79



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    94  75  92  75  91 /   0   5  10  10  40
Waco                94  74  93  75  91 /   5  10  20  10  40
Paris               92  71  92  73  91 /   0   0  10  10  30
Denton              93  71  91  74  90 /   0   5  10  10  40
McKinney            93  71  91  74  91 /   0   0  10  10  30
Dallas              95  76  93  76  91 /   0   5  10  10  40
Terrell             93  73  93  74  92 /   0   5  10  10  30
Corsicana           94  74  93  74  92 /   5  10  20  10  40
Temple              94  74  92  74  91 /   5  10  30  10  40
Mineral Wells       93  71  92  73  90 /   0   5  10  10  40

&&

.FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

50/90



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