Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 250505
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1205 AM CDT MON APR 25 2016

.AVIATION...
/06 UTC TAF CYCLE/

CONCERNS...MVFR/IFR CIGS...BREEZY SOUTH WINDS AND LOW THUNDER
POTENTIAL MONDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR THE METROPLEX TAF SITES...THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALED THAT POCKETS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND
WEST OF AN AFW TO FTW TO GKY LINE. THIS AREA OF MVFR/IFR CIGS IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BLOSSOM AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO STREAM NORTHWARD COURTESY OF STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW.
WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS AND
SHOULD PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD MVFR VSBYS. IFR CIGS APPEAR PROBABLE
AROUND THE 08-09 UTC TIME FRAME MONDAY BASED ON STATISTICAL AND
DETERMINISTIC MODEL OUTPUT HOWEVER. CIGS SHOULD LIFT FROM IFR TO
MVFR DURING THE MID-MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY. THE STRONG SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MIXING SHOULD RESULT IN BREEZY SOUTH WINDS
WITH A FEW GUSTS TO NEAR 30-33 KT. A FEW HOURS OF VFR CIGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL
INDICATE THAT A VERY STOUT CAP WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION WHICH EQUATES TO A VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
THIS PRECLUDES THE NEED TO ADD THUNDER TO THE METROPLEX TAFS AT
THIS TIME. AS MENTIONED IN THE 00 UTC AVN DISCUSSION...IF STORMS
DO DEVELOP...THEY WILL LIKELY BECOME SEVERE VERY QUICKLY. THE
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS WANES WITH SUNSET ON MONDAY EVENING. MVFR
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AROUND 04 UTC TUESDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL
JET RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR THE DFW EXTENDED...IFR CIGS APPEAR POSSIBLE WITH THE CONTINUED
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AROUND 06-09 UTC ON TUESDAY. GIVEN THE
CURRENT LENGTH/COMPLEXITY OF THE CURRENT TAF...WILL ABSTAIN FROM
INCLUDING IFR CIGS IN THE DFW EXTENDED AT THIS TIME..

FOR THE WACO TAF SITE...MVFR CIGS SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE 06-07 UTC
MONDAY TIME FRAME WITH IFR CIGS CLOSER TO 08 UTC MONDAY
COMPLIMENTS OF STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS. A RETURN TO MVFR
CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED AROUND MID-MORNING MONDAY WITH A COUPLE OF
PERIODS OF VFR CIGS IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
CONTINUED BREEZY CONDITIONS. THE PROBABILITY OF A STORM OR TWO IS
SLIGHTLY HIGHER ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS AS SUFFICIENT HEATING MAY BE
ENOUGH TO BREACH THE CAP. IF THIS OCCURS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP...THEY WILL LIKELY BECOME SEVERE VERY QUICKLY.
HOWEVER...THIS POTENTIAL REMAINS TOO LOW TO FORMALLY INTRODUCE IN
THE TAF AT THIS TIME. WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...THE STORM
POTENTIAL WILL DECREASE. A RETURN TO MVFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED AS
THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND TRANSPORTS ADDITIONAL MOIST AIR
NORTHWARD.

BAIN

&&

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
CONTINUES WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA AND LITTLE ADDITIONAL
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

DUNN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016/
AFTER A QUIET WEEKEND...AN ACTIVE WEEK OF WEATHER IS SHAPING UP
FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WITH SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR SEVERE
STORMS. A FEW STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING...MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ZONES AS A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS
SOUTH TEXAS. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP THROUGH THIS EVENING ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WILL BE A TRANSITIONAL
PERIOD WITH BRIEF SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN ADVANCE OF A DEVELOPING
WEST COAST TROUGH. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THROUGH MONDAY DUE TO SURFACE LEE TROUGHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS. AS A RESULT...CLOUDY...BREEZY AND MILD CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S.

THE WEST COAST UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO REACH ARIZONA AND UTAH BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING WARMING MID
LEVEL TEMPS WHICH WILL STRENGTHEN THE CAP. THE ONLY THING THAT
COULD POTENTIALLY GET SURFACE PARCELS TO REALIZE THEIR FULL
POTENTIAL WOULD BE LIFT ALONG A MESO-SCALE BOUNDARY. WE ARE FAIRLY
CONFIDENT THAT THE DRYLINE WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WE WILL STILL KEEP A LOW CHANCE FOR
STORMS REGION WIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY STORMS
THAT DO MANAGE TO DEVELOP HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE WITH
THE FULL SUITE OF HAZARDS POSSIBLE.

THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN
COLORADO/SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW THE
DRYLINE TO MIX FARTHER EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WE EXPECT THE
DRYLINE TO BECOME THE FOCUS FOR LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS
THE WESTERN ZONES. HOWEVER...A FEW STORMS COULD ALSO DEVELOP WELL
AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE IF CONVECTIVE TEMPS CAN BE REACHED. THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING DUE TO SURFACE BASED CAPE IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG ALONG
WITH MODERATE SHEAR. BY MID EVENING TUESDAY...STORMS WILL LIKELY
ORGANIZE INTO AN EASTWARD MOVING SQUALL LINE. THIS LINE SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE THE MOST
LIKELY HAZARDS BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

MODELS DIFFER ON THE STORM POTENTIAL ON WEDNESDAY BUT PATTERN
RECOGNITION LEADS US TO BELIEVE THAT THE SQUALL LINE WILL EXIT TO
THE EAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY AND THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL REMAIN WORKED OVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER TRANSITIONAL DAY WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING
ALOFT AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEST COAST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THERE
WILL BE A LOW CHANCE OF STORMS ACROSS THE WEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WITH INCREASING CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. MODELS DO
DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH AND SPEED OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM.
HOWEVER..THEY DO AGREE THAT STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND THAT MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPER WITH
THIS SYSTEM. SO ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.
WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY IN THE COMING DAYS SINCE
MANY RIVERS ARE STILL IN FLOOD FROM THE LAST RAINFALL EVENT AND
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL COULD CAUSE SOME BIG PROBLEMS.

THE EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT SOME DRIER WEATHER
SHOULD FINALLY MOVE INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS TO START THE
FIRST WEEK OF MAY.

79



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH    67  84  70  84  67 /   5  20  10  20  60
WACO                67  84  70  84  66 /   5  20  10  20  60
PARIS               64  80  68  81  66 /   5  20  20  20  60
DENTON              66  83  69  83  64 /   0  20  10  20  60
MCKINNEY            66  82  69  82  65 /   5  20  20  20  60
DALLAS              67  84  71  84  67 /   5  20  10  20  60
TERRELL             65  82  70  82  67 /   5  20  20  20  60
CORSICANA           67  84  70  83  68 /  10  20  20  20  60
TEMPLE              67  84  70  84  67 /  10  20  10  20  50
MINERAL WELLS       65  88  68  85  61 /   0  10  10  20  60

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

15/91


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