Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 231706
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1206 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. WITH SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH HAVE REMOVED
THE MENTION OF MORNING RAINFALL OVER THE EAST. OTHERWISE CLEARING
SKIES WILL OCCUR DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS OVER NORTH
TEXAS...ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY UNINTERRUPTED VIEWING OF THE PARTIAL
SOLAR ECLIPSE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. TR.92

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 612 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS
SHIFTED MOSTLY EAST OF NORTH TEXAS TAF SITES THIS MORNING. A FEW
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY LINGER DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS...BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN TOO SPARSE TO MENTION IN AREA
TAFS. OTHERWISE SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE 5 TO 10 KT RANGE WILL
CONTINUE THOUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH CONDITIONS
REMAINING VFR.

30


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/
SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS MORNING.  SINCE MOISTURE WILL BE
VERY LIMITED WE WILL ONLY KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MENTIONED. ONLY
TRACE RAIN AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR AT MOST LOCATIONS THAT DO SEE
RAINFALL. THE NORTHERN ZONES WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN SINCE LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL BE
THE STRONGEST THERE. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN MARGINAL
AT BEST BUT AN ISOLATED STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF TEXAS BY MIDDAY AND TAKE THE RAIN
CHANCES AND CLOUDS WITH IT. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
MANAGE TO REACH THE LOWER 80S IN MOST SPOTS EVEN THOUGH A FEW
HOURS OF HEATING WILL BE LOST TO MORNING CLOUDS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND AMPLIFY OVER
THE NATIONS MID SECTION SATURDAY. A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND BUILDING
HEIGHTS WILL RESULT IN NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN MANY
LOCATIONS SATURDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND
90.

THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES AND TRANSLATE EAST
AND STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS UP IN THE WEST. THIS UPPER
AIR PATTERN WILL RESULT IN SURFACE LEE TROUGHING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WHICH WILL ACT TO INCREASE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW ACROSS TEXAS AND DRAW GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD. MONDAY WILL BE
HOT AND HUMID FOR LATE OCTOBER WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S AND
HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 80S TO THE LOWER 90S.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TUESDAY AND ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS. WHILE
MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE
REGION...SOME LIFT ALONG THE FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE BEST
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED THE SECOND HALF OF
NEXT WEEK AS A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND A
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS PATTERN
WILL INITIALLY BRING DECREASING CLOUDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TO
FINISH OUT OCTOBER. HOWEVER...THE WEST COAST TROUGH MAY BRING SOME
RAIN CHANCES TO NORTH TEXAS FOR THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF NOVEMBER.

79



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  82  60  85  65  89 /  10   5   0   0   0
WACO, TX              81  54  85  58  89 /  10   5   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             74  53  80  59  86 /  20   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            82  56  86  61  89 /  10   5   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          79  54  83  58  88 /  10   5   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            80  61  86  65  88 /  10   5   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           79  55  82  59  88 /  10   5   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         79  56  87  61  89 /  10   5   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            79  57  87  57  88 /  10   5   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     82  58  87  59  89 /   5   5   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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