Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
FXUS64 KFWD 201511 AAB
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1011 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2016
Although occasional scattered sky conditions are occurring at the
airports this morning, broken MVFR and IFR cigs are expected to
continue for most of the morning.
A weak surface high is now being analyzed near the KACT airport
and will move east this morning. This will result in light and
variable winds at KACT for much of the morning that may
eventually prevail north or northeasterly with speeds at or below
5 kts. For the DFW airports...light southwest winds are occurring
but may become light northerly near midday for a few hours. Wind
speeds are also expected be light at 6 kts or less and will
prevail VRB04kt in the TAF.
.../PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION/...
Clearing along the I-35 corridor overnight diminished the
visibility at many area airports, but as stratus filled in the
clear slot during the predawn hours, the visibility generally
improved. However, with occasional VFR conditions returning around
daybreak, some Metroplex airports will see a brief resurgence of
BR before filtered sunlight warms the surface layer.
Light southeast winds have ensued across Dallas/Fort Worth,
evidence that the unseasonably cool air is finally eroding. FWS
VWP shows southerly winds around 20 knots at FL020. Minimal
sunlight this morning should prevent this momentum from reaching
the ground, but southeast winds should dominate as the old
postfrontal layer dissolves.
VFR conditions should prevail by mid-afternoon and continue
tonight. With weak flow above the nocturnal boundary layer, the
stratus intrusion may not blanket all TAF sites Saturday morning.
If sufficiently delayed, it may arrive after 12Z as a scattered
deck. Have introduced MVFR ceilings at all TAF sites, but
confidence is not high.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2016/
After several days of scattered rain across North and Central
Texas...we will get a few quiet days before on and off rain
chances return for next week. The upper trough responsible for
yesterday`s rain and thunderstorms is centered over eastern Kansas
with the trough axis extending southward into North Texas. With
the lack of any appreciable dry air advection into the
region...ample low level moisture in the cool airmass has resulted
in extensive low cloud cover and some fog. The low clouds will
likely persist through midday then begin scattering out this
afternoon. Temperatures will be slow to warm initially today then
should respond into the upper 70s by afternoon with breaks in the
Weak upper ridging will prevail across the region through the
weekend with strengthening southerly flow and warming
temperatures. Highs on Saturday should climb into the mid and
upper 80s. Despite the ridging...ample low level moisture will be
in place across the Southern Plains and with weak forcing...scattered
thunderstorms are expected to develop along the dryline in
northwest Oklahoma late Saturday afternoon. These should organize
into a cluster and head southeast through late evening...running
into a strengthening cap as they head in our general direction. We
will have to keep an eye on these storms possibly making it into
North Texas late Saturday night but as of right now...will keep
PoPs out of the forecast.
Slightly better storm chances arrive on Sunday as the western U.S.
low moves a little closer and sends a piece of shortwave energy
into the central Plains. The dryline will move a little farther
east across the Panhandle and west-central Texas Sunday afternoon
where convection is again expected to develop. Upper level winds
would tend to send any organized convection southeast into our
area late Sunday evening. Areas along and west of Interstate 35
would have the best chance for storms during this time.
As we head into next week...the upper pattern does not change a
great deal with a large trough over the western U.S. This should
continue to support periodic waves of lift across the southern
Plains resulting in active dryline convection each afternoon
through much of next week. While storm chances are not high on any
particular day...we will be unstable each afternoon with steep
lapse rates. Forecast soundings suggest that we will remain capped
during much of the time...but any organized convection that
develops off to the west would likely move in our general
direction with the best chances occurring in the late afternoon
to late evening timeframe. The latest forecast will show 20-30
PoPs through much of next week.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 81 64 88 69 83 / 0 0 5 10 10
Waco 81 63 87 68 86 / 0 0 5 10 10
Paris 77 61 83 64 81 / 0 0 5 10 10
Denton 79 61 87 66 82 / 0 0 5 10 10
McKinney 79 61 86 66 83 / 0 0 5 10 10
Dallas 81 64 88 69 84 / 0 0 5 10 10
Terrell 80 62 87 67 84 / 0 0 5 10 10
Corsicana 80 64 87 68 85 / 0 0 5 10 10
Temple 82 63 86 68 85 / 0 0 5 10 10
Mineral Wells 80 62 86 67 83 / 0 0 5 10 20