Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 260004
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
704 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016

.AVIATION...
/00 UTC TAF CYCLE/

CONCERNS...DETERIORATING CIGS AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

FOR THE METROPLEX TAF SITES...CIGS WILL DETERIORATE THIS EVENING
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHWARD. CIGS SHOULD
FALL BELOW FL020 AROUND 05 UTC WITH NEAR IFR CIGS POSSIBLE. A
COMBINATION OF OUTPUT FROM FORECAST SOUNDINGS...PERSISTENCE AND
STRATUS CLIMATOLOGY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS HOWEVER...SUGGESTS THAT THE
PROBABILITY OF IFR CIGS REMAINS LOW. NEVERTHELESS...TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND OUTPUT WILL BE MONITORED. VFR FLYING CONDITIONS
SHOULD RETURN DURING EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH CONTINUED BREEZY
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF A SHARPENING DRYLINE. AS AN UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE D10 TRACON WHICH MAY
RESULT IN IMPACTS FOR THE NORTHWEST ARRIVAL GATES. CONVECTION IS
NOT EXPECTED TO NEAR THE D10 TRACON AIRSPACE UNTIL CLOSER TO 21-22
UTC WITH POTENTIAL IMPACTS AT AFW AND FTW AROUND 23-00 UTC.
CONVECTION APPEARS MORE LIKELY NEAR AND AFTER 00 UTC FOR THE
REMAINING METROPLEX TAF SITES AS THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION TAKES ON A LARGER AND MORE LINEAR MODE WHICH WILL
LIKELY CAUSE MAJOR IMPACTS FOR D10 AIR TRAFFIC.

FOR THE DFW EXTENDED...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH 04
UTC ACROSS D10 AIRSPACE. IN ITS WAKE...VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED...BUT
THERE DOES REMAIN A VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH
MVFR CIGS.

FOR THE WACO TAF SITE...MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING
AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE THE POTENTIAL
FOR IFR CIGS IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER HERE COMPARED TO THE
METROPLEX...THE GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONGST MOST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
COMBINED WITH STRATUS CLIMATOLOGY SUGGESTS THAT THE PROBABILITY OF
OCCURRENCE OF IFR CIGS IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF. FOR
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...A BULK OF THE BETTER FORCING FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TO THE NORTH. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONGER
CAPPING WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS VERY ISOLATED AND RESULTS IN
CONFIDENCE BEING TOO LOW TO INCLUDE THUNDER IN THE WACO TAF AT
THIS TIME.

BAIN

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016/
LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR THE GREAT BASIN. A FEW OF THE HIGH RES
SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ZONES THROUGH SUNSET. ALTHOUGH THE CAP IS CURRENTLY HOLDING
STRONG...THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THE CAP COULD BREAK IN THE
SOUTHWEST ZONES WHERE LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED AND TEMPERATURES
HAVE WARMED INTO THE MIDDLE 80S. FOR NOW WE WILL KEEP ISOLATED
STORMS MENTIONED IN THE SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING.

THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ACROSS COLORADO DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY WHILE A DRYLINE MIXES EASTWARD ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS. THE CAP SHOULD WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY AS LARGE SCALE
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION INCREASES. HOWEVER...STORMS WILL MOST
LIKELY NOT INITIATE UNTIL THE DRYLINE ARRIVES IN WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE
DRYLINE SHOULD INTENSIFY QUICKLY WITH 3000+ J/KG CAPE AND MODERATE
SHEAR. AS THE DRYLINE MIXES EAST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...STORMS
WILL INCREASE IN NUMBER AND BECOME ORGANIZED INTO A LINE. A FEW
DISCRETE STORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE OF STORMS
THROUGH MID EVENING...ESPECIALLY IF SOME OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES CAN
PROPAGATE EASTWARD. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE WITH PRIMARY HAZARDS
BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A THREAT
FOR A FEW TORNADOES...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.

BY MID EVENING TUESDAY THE SQUALL LINE WILL FILL IN TO THE SOUTH
WHILE IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. STORMS SHOULD REACH THE
INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR BEFORE MIDNIGHT AND MAKE IT TO EAST TEXAS
BEFORE MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE STORMS
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS
BUT SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH THE
LINE SHOULD BE FAIRLY NARROW...THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING STORMS DUE TO EXPECTED MID LEVEL STEERING FLOW.
THEREFORE...LOCALIZED FLOODING/FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE A
POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 OVERNIGHT
TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

ALL STORMS SHOULD EXIT NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON ONCE THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSES TO THE EAST.
THEREFORE...WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY
AND PLEASANT WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH A FEW MORE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
REGION. THE FIRST OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE FROM THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND LIFT NORTHEAST TO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BY SATURDAY. ENERGY FROM THIS SYSTEM COUPLED WITH ABUNDANT
LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST CHANCES ON FRIDAY. SOME SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT THE BIGGER THREAT MAY COME
FROM HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM AND THE AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE EXPECTED.

A SECONDARY PIECE OF ENERGY IS PROGGED TO ROTATE AROUND THE BACK
SIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW AND BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SINCE A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO COME THROUGH AHEAD OF THE UPPER ENERGY...THE SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD BE LOW.

79

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH    70  83  65  85  63 /  10  30  70  20   5
WACO                70  83  64  85  63 /  10  30  70  20  10
PARIS               67  81  65  81  61 /  10  20  70  40  10
DENTON              69  82  61  83  60 /  10  30  70  20   5
MCKINNEY            69  81  62  83  60 /  10  20  70  20  10
DALLAS              70  83  66  85  64 /  10  30  70  20  10
TERRELL             69  82  66  83  63 /  10  20  70  30  10
CORSICANA           70  82  67  84  64 /  10  20  70  30  10
TEMPLE              69  84  65  85  64 /  10  30  60  20  10
MINERAL WELLS       68  85  59  85  59 /  10  40  60  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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