Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 150450
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1150 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO ALL AREA TAF SITES AROUND
SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT /LESS THAN 10 KTS/
AND VEER FROM THE EAST TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
MONDAY. VCSH IS POSSIBLE FOR ALL AREA TAF SITES MONDAY MORNING AS
WELL...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE ACTIVITY ADVERSELY AFFECTING THE
SITES IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
ADDITIONALLY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON
TUESDAY...WHICH IS JUST BEYOND THIS TAF PERIOD.



&&




.SHORT TERM...
/THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED THAT A SHORTWAVE WAS OVER
FAR WEST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
SOUTHERN GEORGIA WEST INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. THE SHORTWAVE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH...THEN NORTHEAST AND THEN EAST AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES. THERE WILL BE LOW
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND MAYBE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS OKLAHOMA.

A SHORTWAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER NORTHEASTERN MONTANA WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST MONDAY AND INTO THE
EASTERN U.S. TUESDAY. AS THIS OCCURS AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS WILL PUT THE
FORECAST AREA UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THUS WE WILL HAVE
LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING THROUGH
MIDWEEK.

AFTER A COOL WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...COMING BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS.

58

&&

.LONG TERM...
/THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MADE VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. INCREASED HIGH
TEMPS SLIGHTLY LATER IN THE WEEK TO COINCIDE WITH THE LATEST
GUIDANCE WHICH KEEPS TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER
INTO THURSDAY WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE AS THE FRONT RETREATS
TO THE NORTHEAST AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE ROTATES AROUND THE RIDGE
ALOFT. ONLY UPGRADED TO 20 POPS AT THE MOMENT AS THERE IS STILL
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITHOUT ANY STRONG FORCING MECHANISM
PRESENT.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK DRY FOR NOW AS THE RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHWEST STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA. EXTENDED MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
BEGUN TO AGREE ON SOME ASPECTS OF THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT PATTERN
CHANGE TO OCCUR NEXT WEEKEND. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A
FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WITH A TROUGH
PROGRESSING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT REGARDING THE AMPLITUDE
OF THE TROUGH...BUT THERE IS AGREEMENT THAT THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS AND
LIKELY INTO TEXAS BY SUNDAY. IF THE MODELS ARE INDEED HANDLING
THIS NEXT SYSTEM WELL...MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE A GOOD CHANCE
OF RAIN LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

STALLEY

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  69  88  72  91  74 /  10  20  20  30  20
WACO, TX              68  90  71  92  73 /  10  10  20  30  30
PARIS, TX             66  84  68  86  69 /  20  20  20  30  10
DENTON, TX            67  87  70  90  71 /  20  20  20  30  20
MCKINNEY, TX          66  87  68  90  70 /  20  20  20  30  20
DALLAS, TX            70  89  72  91  74 /  10  20  20  30  20
TERRELL, TX           66  88  70  90  71 /  10  10  20  30  20
CORSICANA, TX         67  89  71  91  72 /  10  10  20  30  20
TEMPLE, TX            68  91  72  91  72 /  10  10  20  40  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     64  89  69  88  70 /  20  20  20  30  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

81/





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