Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 241524
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1024 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
LARGE SQUALL LINE STRETCHES FROM EAST TEXAS SOUTH INTO THE WESTERN
GULF...ALMOST 200 MILES SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE. IN THE WAKE OF THIS
LINE...THE AIRMASS HAS BEEN STABILIZED SOMEWHAT OVER THE REGION.
THEREFORE EVEN THOUGH STRONG FORCING WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
TODAY...ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE SCATTERED AND NOT TOO
HEAVY. THIS FINAL WAVE OF FORCING IS WHAT HAS CAUSED THE SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY.
TODAY/S POPS HAVE BEEN REWORKED TO SHOW THE LATEST AND EXPECTED
TRENDS OVER THE 6-12 HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE DIFFICULT AS SUNSHINE WILL LIKELY BREAK OUT
OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPS LIKELY REACHING THE LOW 80S. MEANWHILE SOME OF THE CLOUDY
AND RAINY AREAS MAY ONLY REACH THE LOW 70S TODAY.

OTHERWISE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES...AND WILL LIKELY BE
EXTENDED INTO TOMORROW EVENING AS INDICATIONS ARE THAT ANOTHER
ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.

TR.92



&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 656 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/
/12Z TAFS/

TIMING FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AND CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
CHALLENGE...ESPECIALLY THE FIRST 6 HRS THIS MORNING. THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING NORTHEAST OVER KSJT CURRENTLY...WHILE
SEVERAL MESOSCALE...CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORTICES WERE OCCURRING
ACROSS SE OK AND E TX OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN SHORTWAVE. WIDESPREAD
SHRA WITH EMBEDDED TSRA WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
AT LEAST MID MORNING....BEFORE BETTER MOIST AXIS SHIFTS EAST AWAY
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. STILL WILL ADVERTISE VCSH AT LEAST INTO
MID AFTERNOON...BUT THIS MAY HAVE TO BE CHANGED TO VCTS WITH CB/S
ON LATER FORECAST IF ELEVATED INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO HOLD AS THE
SHORTWAVE PASSES OVERHEAD.

BY MID MORNING...LOOK FOR MVFR CIGS WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS.
WILL ADVERTISE A RETURN VFR CIGS BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. BY MIDNIGHT AND AFTER...SOUTH WINDS
10-15 KTS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE MOISTURE RICH OVER THE AREA.
WILL BEGIN MVFR CIGS BY 06Z...THEN AS WIND SPEEDS LOWER OVER WET
SOIL...HAVE CIGS DROPPING INTO IFR WITH MVFR VSBYS DURING THE
PREDAWN HRS MEMORIAL DAY.

ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL TRIGGER A ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS DURING THE DAY MONDAY BUT LEFT IT OUT OF THIS FORECAST.
BULK OF MONDAY/S CONVECTION WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
HRS.

05/


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/
THE SEVERE THREAT HAS TRANSITIONED OVER TO PRIMARILY A HEAVY RAIN
THREAT EARLY THIS MORNING...AND TORNADO WATCH 197 HAS BEEN ALLOWED
TO EXPIRE. WE WILL STILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON CONVECTION
IMMEDIATELY SURROUNDING AN MCV...WHICH PRODUCED GUSTY WINDS AS IT
LIFTED NORTH THROUGH THE METROPLEX. THIS FEATURE SHOULD CROSS THE
RED RIVER IN A FEW HOURS...PROVIDING BRIEF TORRENTIAL RAIN AND AN
ENHANCED FLASH FLOOD THREAT ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR NORTH OF
DALLAS-FORT WORTH. A SECOND MCV CAN BE SEEN MOVING NORTHEAST INTO
THE PALESTINE AREA. WE WILL HOLD ONTO TORNADO WATCH 200 FOR A
LITTLE WHILE LONGER...BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE BY 4
AM.

SUBSIDENCE IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF OUR 2 MESOSCALE SYSTEMS IS
PROVIDING A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE ONGOING CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN SHORTWAVE REMAINS WEST OF THE REGION AND
APPEARS TO CURRENTLY BE MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS WEST TEXAS.
WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL
PERSIST...AND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

THE SHORTWAVE WILL ACCELERATE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING...WHILE A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH /CURRENTLY DROPPING INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/ SWINGS EAST ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
STRONG ASCENT WILL SPREAD ACROSS OUR AREA AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
INTO WEST TEXAS...LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION MONDAY.
INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER
MONDAY...PRIMARILY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HEAVY RAIN WILL
ALSO AGGRAVATE THE FLOODING SITUATION. WE HAVE OPTED TO NOT EXTEND
THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY...BECAUSE
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AND THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TIME BETWEEN THIS EVENT AND THE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
EVENT TO MAKE A DECISION ON WHETHER OR NOT TO ISSUE ANOTHER FLASH
FLOOD WATCH. EITHER WAY...THOSE WITH OUTDOOR MEMORIAL DAY PLANS
WILL NEED TO KEEP UP TO DATE WITH THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION
AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL TRANSPIRE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH
LOW-END RAIN CHANCES BEING KEPT ON THOSE DAYS DUE TO DIURNAL
CONVECTION. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK...PROVIDING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

30



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  76  68  84  66  85 /  70  20  70  50  20
WACO, TX              78  69  80  67  86 /  40  30  80  50  20
PARIS, TX             74  67  82  65  82 /  90  40  80  70  20
DENTON, TX            76  66  84  66  84 /  70  20  60  50  20
MCKINNEY, TX          75  67  84  66  83 /  70  30  70  50  20
DALLAS, TX            76  68  85  66  85 /  70  20  70  50  20
TERRELL, TX           76  69  82  67  84 /  70  30  80  60  20
CORSICANA, TX         77  70  83  67  84 /  50  30  80  60  20
TEMPLE, TX            79  69  81  67  86 /  40  30  80  50  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     79  67  82  64  85 /  70  20  60  40  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.


&&

$$



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