Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 271538
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1038 AM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016

.UPDATE...
Overall the forecast remains in good shape with just a few minor
tweaks to Wx, PoP and Max T grids for this afternoon/evening.

Water vapor imagery this morning shows a good plume of moisture
streaming in from the south and southwest. This is likely
associated with both the fetch of mid/upper level moisture from
the Pacific as well as the area of convection along the upper TX
coast. The 12 UTC FWD RAOB isn`t as impressive instability wise
compared to yesterday, but overall tropospheric moisture content
has increased slightly. With ample heating, isolated to widely
scattered convection is expected to develop again just about
anywhere all of North and Central TX. Not all locales will see
rain...and the highest coverage will likely be relegated to
eastern zones (about 40% coverage) where the best/deepest moisture
resides. An additional area to watch will be across western zones
where surface analysis revealed the presence of a low level
convergence zone just to the west of the U.S. Highway 281
corridor. With little in the way of convective inhibition this
afternoon and this low level convergence zone---I went ahead and
nudged PoPs upwards towards 30% to 40% here. Widespread severe
weather prospects appear low, but I won`t rule out a
an isolated strong/damaging downburst threat. With the overall
flow in the troposphere being more unorganized/weaker today, I
expect generally slower storm motions (outside of convective
outflows). This will continue to favor a heavy rain/nuisance
flooding potential. I`ve dropped temperatures down a degree or
two across far eastern zones where confidence is a bit higher in a
larger areal coverage of convection. Elsewhere, high temperatures
remain unchanged.

The remainder of the forecast looks to be in good shape and
updated products have already been transmitted. We will continue
to monitor the activity along the upper TX coast this afternoon
and into the evening to see what influence (if any) it has on the
weather across North and Central TX.

24-Bain

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 646 AM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016/
/12Z TAFS/

VFR conditions generally prevail across the region although light
winds and relatively cool temperatures have allowed some patchy
fog to develop. Visibility at Waco has dropped under 2 miles and
think some of this patchy fog will linger around for another
couple of hours or so. Will have a TEMPO for MVFR visibility at
Waco through 14Z. Otherwise...North and Central Texas will again
be on the western periphery of an upper ridge which is currently
centered over the eastern U.S. This will again allow for Gulf
moisture to remain in place across the region this afternoon. With
a little heating later today...expect more scattered showers and
thunderstorms to develop. We`re already seeing a few light showers
to the east of the major airports but think these will increase in
coverage through the late morning. Slightly better chances for
thunderstorms appear likely in the Waco area given the closer
proximity to a weak upper disturbance over the western Gulf. Any
shower and thunderstorm activity should diminish in the evening
hours with loss of daytime heating. Outside of the patchy fog this
morning and scattered convection this afternoon...VFR conditions
should prevail.

Dunn


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016/
High pressure aloft remains centered along the Eastern Seaboard
while an inverted trough continues to swirl over the northwestern
Gulf. The resulting deep southeasterly flow overhead has brought
abundant Gulf moisture northwestward into North and Central Texas,
and this will be the main source of our rain chances over the next
several days.

PWATs currently range from an inch and a half over our
northwestern-most counties to 2 inches over the southeast. The
expectation is that scattered convection will develop early this
afternoon as temperatures climb into the upper 80s to near 90,
then fall apart around sunset due to the loss of surface heating.
One subtle difference today compared to yesterday is that we do
not have the shortwave trough transiting the Plains, so large-
scale subsidence from the western reaches of the Eastern U.S.
ridge may be a little stronger this afternoon. POPs as a result
are slightly lower than yesterday, and will range from slight
chance across the west to chance over the central and east. A few
storms may become strong with gusty winds and brief heavy rain,
but the high moisture and weak shear environment will keep the
severe threat low.

The latest guidance indicates that the Gulf Coast trough will
close off over the next 24 hours and perhaps intensify along the
mid and upper TX Coast. Development into an organized tropical
system is not likely, but not completely out of the question.
Either way, the low pressure system will work its way slowly to
the west or southwest over the next several days. Rain chances
should gradually decrease as the focus for convection becomes
centered nearer to the vicinity of the low pressure area, and the
system itself drifts farther away. However, with Gulf moisture
lingering across the region, we should continue to see at least a
slight chance of rain each day through the middle of next week.

Upper level ridging is still expected to strengthen overhead late
next week. This will place us in a hot and dry pattern during the
extended portion of the forecast, and likely on into the holiday
weekend.

30



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    91  75  91  76  93 /  30  30  30  20  20
Waco                90  73  89  74  90 /  30  30  40  20  30
Paris               90  72  91  72  92 /  40  40  20  20  20
Denton              90  72  91  72  92 /  30  30  20  20  20
McKinney            90  73  92  73  92 /  30  30  30  20  20
Dallas              91  76  92  76  93 /  30  30  30  20  20
Terrell             87  74  91  74  91 /  40  40  30  20  20
Corsicana           88  74  90  75  91 /  40  40  30  20  30
Temple              89  73  88  73  88 /  40  40  40  20  40
Mineral Wells       91  71  90  72  91 /  40  40  30  20  20

&&

.FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

14/24



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