Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 300844
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
244 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FEW CHANGES TO THIS FORECAST. I DID SLOW DOWN THE START OF THE
PRECIP BASED ON A SLOWER TREND IN THE MODELS. IT WILL TAKE A BIT
OF TIME FOR ELEVATED PRECIP TO EVAPORATE AND MOISTEN THE LOWER
LEVELS BEFORE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION CAN START. THERE MAY BE A
FEW SPRINKLES BEFORE MIDNIGHT FRIDAY...BUT ONLY THE FEW THAT CAN
HIT THE SURFACE BEFORE COMPLETELY EVAPORATING. AREAL AVERAGED
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL MAY RANGE FROM ABOUT A THIRD TO A HALF AN
INCH BY SUNDAY EVENING WHEN PRECIP HAS ENDED.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...DRYING THE ATMOSPHERE AND SHUTTING OFF THE RAIN. ON
MONDAY MORNING...WHEN CLEARING AND A COLDER AIR MASS ARE IN
PLACE...LOWS SHOULD DROP BELOW FREEZING NORTH OF A LINE FROM
LAMPASAS TO PALESTINE.

COOLER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WORK WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S. THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA WILL DROP SOUTH AND PUSH ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND
COASTAL TX...KEEPING MOST OF THE RAIN WELL SOUTH OF OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES. WE DO HAVE SOME LOW POPS IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT THAT IS BASED ON POTENTIAL WOBBLE IN
THE LOW/S PATH. 84

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 553 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015/
/00Z TAFS/

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH
OVERCAST SKIES WILL BE ONGOING WITH CIGS BASED AROUND 20000FT.
WINDS GUSTING IN EXCESS OF 25KTS HAVE DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT THIS
EVENING AND WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 15KTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT. FLOW BECOMES EASTERLY DURING THE DAY TOMORROW AND CIGS
WILL CONTINUE A DOWNWARD TREND AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE.
WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD NORTH TEXAS LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

DUNN


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  54  42  52  47  53 /   5  10  60  90  50
WACO, TX              57  42  54  50  57 /  10  10  60  70  60
PARIS, TX             54  38  51  43  52 /   5  10  40  90  60
DENTON, TX            55  41  49  44  52 /   5  10  70  90  50
MCKINNEY, TX          54  39  51  45  53 /   5  10  60  90  50
DALLAS, TX            56  42  52  47  54 /   5  10  60  90  50
TERRELL, TX           55  40  54  48  56 /   5  10  50  80  60
CORSICANA, TX         56  41  55  50  59 /   5  10  50  70  60
TEMPLE, TX            56  42  55  51  59 /  10  10  60  70  60
MINERAL WELLS, TX     54  41  49  45  51 /  10  20  90  80  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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