Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 051016
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
416 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...
THE 00Z SOUNDING FROM OUR OFFICE TALLIED ONLY 0.18 INCHES OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER...WHICH IS VERY DRY EVEN BY FEBRUARY STANDARDS.
ANYONE WHO HAS BEEN SHOCKED BY STATIC ELECTRICITY RECENTLY KNOWS
THAT IT HAS BEEN BONE DRY FOR A WHILE...BUT THIS IS THE DRIEST
COLUMN OF THE WEEK. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS HAVE RETURNED THIS
MORNING...AND SPEEDS SHOULD STEADILY INCREASE TODAY. BUT WITH THE
GULF SCOURED OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...THERE WILL BE LITTLE DEW
POINT RECOVERY TODAY. THE RESULTING WARM ADVECTION WILL ADD A FEW
DEGREES TO HIGH TEMPERATURES...BUT THIS WILL BE LARGELY NEGATED BY
THE ADDED WIND CHILL.

OUR LONG-AWAITED SHORTWAVE IS NOW EMERGING FROM THE HIGH TERRAIN
OF THE ROCKIES. AS THE FEATURE STRETCHES VERTICALLY...CONSERVATION
OF VORTICITY WOULD SUGGEST IT SHOULD DIG SOUTH. GUIDANCE AGREES...
TAKING IT ON A MUCH MORE SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.
ALTHOUGH THIS SHOULD MEAN AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES FOR NORTH
AND CENTRAL TEXAS...THIS IMPULSE WILL BE LIFTING VERY DRY AIR.
HOWEVER...THE LIFT IS QUITE STRONG...AND ITS RESIDUAL PACIFIC
MOISTURE ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW THE LAYER FROM 700 TO 600MB (AROUND
10-14KFT AGL) TO SATURATE. EVEN THEN...ANY PRECIPITATION WILL
HAVE A LONG JOURNEY THROUGH A VERY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER. THE
EVAPORATION/SUBLIMATION PROCESSES WILL STEADILY LOWER CLOUD
BASES...AND SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY EVENTUALLY REACH THE GROUND
BEFORE THE RAPIDLY MOVING SHORTWAVE EXITS TO THE EAST SATURDAY
MORNING. SOME SOLUTIONS GENERATE MORE THAN 1/4 INCH OF RAIN IN
AREAS EAST AND NORTHEAST OF DALLAS...BUT CONSIDERING THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM...THIS APPEARS FAR TOO
BULLISH.

THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE COMING TO AN END NEAR THE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE MINIMUM...WHICH ON SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE NEAR
FREEZING IN NORTHEAST ZONES. THE SUBLIMATION PHASE CHANGE WILL
ALLOW THE REMAINING SNOW/GRAUPEL ALOFT TO LINGER IN FROZEN FORM...
BUT IT STILL APPEARS UNLIKELY ANY FLAKES WOULD SURVIVE TO THE
SURFACE.

A WARMING TREND WILL SEND TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 60S ON SUNDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT ARRIVES. GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY MAY
RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...
BUT COOL TEMPERATURES SHOULD MITIGATE THIS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT
WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK WILL PUSH HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S
IN SOME AREAS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH MANY LOCATIONS MAY
ENTER THE THIRD WEEK OF FEBRUARY WITHOUT ANY PRECIPITATION FOR THE
MONTH...LONG RANGE GUIDANCE STILL HINTS THAT A PATTERN MORE
BEFITTING OF EL NINO COULD BE IN THE OFFING FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
FEBRUARY.

25

&&

.CLIMATE...
AT DFW AIRPORT...THE COLDEST TEMPERATURE SO FAR THIS WINTER HAS
BEEN 27 DEGREES (JANUARY 18 AND 23). THE RECORD FOR THE WARMEST
WINTER MINIMUM IS 25 DEGREES IN 1944-1945.

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1110 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016/
/06Z TAFS/

SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE NIGHT. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS BY MIDDAY FRIDAY WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE WINDS WILL
BACK EASTERLY OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION...AND THEN BECOME NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY SATURDAY
MORNING AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH. CEILINGS WILL BRIEFLY DECREASE
TO AROUND 2-3 KFT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY
QUICKLY MOVE OVER THE AIRPORTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

JLDUNN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  57  37  56  36  63 /   0  30   5   0   0
WACO, TX              58  35  57  33  65 /   0  30  10   0   0
PARIS, TX             54  33  54  34  61 /   0  30  20   0   0
DENTON, TX            56  33  56  33  63 /   0  30   5   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          55  35  54  33  62 /   0  30  10   0   0
DALLAS, TX            57  38  58  38  63 /   0  30   5   0   0
TERRELL, TX           56  37  55  35  63 /   0  30  10   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         57  37  55  37  65 /   0  30  20   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            58  35  61  33  67 /   0  30  10   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     58  32  59  32  65 /   0  20   5   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

30/25


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