Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 300452
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1152 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH MID-HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUING. SOME ELEVATED
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
OF ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. WILL INCLUDE VCSH FOR THE WACO
TAF THROUGH MID-MORNING. WHILE SOME ROBUST CONVECTION...INCLUDING
A THREAT FOR THUNDER...IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...THE THREAT FOR THIS IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE
FORECAST. OTHERWISE SOUTH LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL.

TR.92

&&

.UPDATE...
MULTIPLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES REMAIN ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT
FOLLOWING THIS EVENING/S CONVECTION. THE PRESENCE OF THE
BOUNDARIES...THE WEAK FRONT NEAR THE RED RIVER...AND A PRONOUNCED
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR THE OPPORTUNITY TO SEE
ISOLATED CONVECTION JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. COVERAGE WOULD LIKELY REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE SO WE WILL
KEEP THE OVERNIGHT POPS AT LESS THAN 20 PERCENT AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES APPEAR ON TRACK TO REACH LOWS IN THE 70S
AT MOST LOCATIONS WITH A FEW UPPER 60S NEAR THE RED RIVER.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/
A SOMEWHAT COMPLEX MID LEVEL PATTERN ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON...AS
THREE DISTINCT DISTURBANCES ARE SEEN IN RELATIVELY CLOSE PROXIMITY
TO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. THERE IS A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE NEAR
LUBBOCK TX...THE CENTRAL GULF COAST LONGWAVE TROUGH NEAR BILOXI
MS...AND A SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE MO/AR OZARKS
REGION. AT THE SURFACE...A SUBTLE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED JUST
NORTHWEST OF OUR CWA WITH WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ON
THE FRONT NEAR WICHITA FALLS TX. AN AREA OF LINGERING LIGHT RAIN
CONTINUED ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND BIG COUNTRY WITH ISOLATED
STORMS HAVING DEVELOPED NORTHWEST OF ABILENE TX IN THE PAST HOUR.

THE SHORTWAVE NEAR LUBBOCK AND MIDLAND TX WILL MOVE SOUTH OVER
THE HILL COUNTRY AND UPPER RIO GRANDE PLAINS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...
EVENTUALLY BECOMING ABSORBED BY THE WEST-MOVING CENTRAL GULF
LONGWAVE TROUGH. DESPITE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES... DEW PTS ARE IN
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S WHICH IS LIMITING INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT
WITH AN EXPECTED DECREASE AFTER 00Z/7 PM. EXPECT ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF THE SLOW-MOVING SURFACE FRONT THIS
EVENING WITH LINGERING CHANCES OVERNIGHT ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES IN PROXIMITY TO THE WEST TX SHORTWAVE. RAINFALL WILL BE
SPOTTY AND VERY LIGHT WITH CLOUD BASES NEAR 700MB AND A DRY SUB-
CLOUD LAYER. SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE DRY WHEN THE CWA IS UNDER
A SUBSIDENT REGION BETWEEN THE SOUTHWEST TX SHORTWAVE AND THE
LONGWAVE COASTAL MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE TX/LA BORDER. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SEASONAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S WITH SOUTH
WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.

THE LONGWAVE COASTAL MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIKELY STALL NEAR OUR
FAR E/SE COUNTIES AS IT ENTERS AN AREA OF WEAK STEERING CURRENTS
ALOFT. WE WILL HAVE SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES ADVERTISED ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES ON TUESDAY...WHERE A SEABREEZE BOUNDARY COULD
ARRIVE FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO AID IN CONVERGENCE AT THE SURFACE.
HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE THE REMAINING PART OF THE WEEK DRY AS NORTH
TEXAS REMAINS UNDERNEATH THE DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW COMPONENT OF
THIS MID LEVEL TROUGH. HIGHS WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS
AND IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

05



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  75  96  76  95  76 /  20   5  10   0   0
WACO, TX              72  96  72  96  73 /  10  10   5   0   5
PARIS, TX             72  93  70  93  70 /  10  10  10   5   5
DENTON, TX            73  95  74  96  74 /  30   5  10   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          74  93  74  94  73 /  20   5  10   0   0
DALLAS, TX            75  96  76  95  76 /  20   5  10   0   0
TERRELL, TX           73  94  72  94  72 /  10   5  10   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         72  94  72  94  73 /  10   5  10   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            73  94  72  95  72 /  10  10   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     73  95  72  96  72 /  30   5   5   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$


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