Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 311748 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1248 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

CONCERNS: VFR WITH PREVAILING SSE FLOW BELOW 10 KTS AT ALL
AIRPORTS...THOUGH ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND MVFR CIGS
MAY AFFECT WACO.

A MID-LVL TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN ANCHORED FROM THE OZARKS TO S
TX. DEFORMATION ON THE NW SIDE OF THIS TROUGH WILL PROVIDE LIFT
OF A MORE MOIST AIRMASS FROM WACO AND POINTS SE OF THE AIRPORT.
CONVECTION WILL BE ISOLATED WITH CONFIDENCE TOO LOW FOR VCSH/VCTS
MENTION IN THE WACO TAF TODAY...BUT WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

OTHERWISE...ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL WANE AFTER SUNSET. MVFR
CIGS WILL PUSH NORTH INTO THE HILL COUNTRY AND CENTRAL TX BY 12Z
TUESDAY. WACO WILL BE ON THE NORTHERNMOST FRINGE OF MVFR CIGS
BETWEEN 12Z-15Z TUESDAY. A TEMPO GROUP HAS BEEN ADDED FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

05/

&&

.UPDATE...
FORECAST WAS GENERALLY ON TRACK...BUT RAISED POPS A FEW PERCENTAGE
POINTS IN BOTH THE SOUTH AND THE NORTHEAST. WORDED FORECAST NOW
INCLUDES SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS IN THESE AREAS.

DEW POINTS ARE NEAR 70F WITHIN THE SIGNIFICANT CU FIELD IN
SOUTHERN ZONES. ONGOING PRECIPITATION IS STILL SOUTH OF THE CWA...
BUT A FEW CELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE FARTHER NORTH LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. HEALTHY BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL ASSURE
CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY AT PEAK HEATING WITH MINIMAL IF ANY
INHIBITION. WEAKNESS ALOFT WILL ALLOW DEEP UPDRAFTS TO FORM...BUT
WEAK SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT DURATION OF INDIVIDUAL SLOW-MOVING CELLS.
AS A RESULT...STORM IMPACTS WILL BE PRIMARILY LIGHTNING STRIKES...
AND AS STORMS COLLAPSE...GUSTY WINDS.

THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL TROUGHING
OVER ARKANSAS WILL BE NORTHEAST OF THE CWA...BUT SOME OF THE
ACTIVITY COULD DEVELOP WITHIN OUR PORTION OF NORTHEAST TEXAS.

SILENT POPS NEAR 10 PERCENT WILL CONNECT THESE AREAS. IF
CONVECTION DEVELOPS EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON OR IS OTHERWISE MORE
WIDESPREAD...COVERAGE MAY EXCEED 10 TO 15 POPS IN THE CURRENT
FORECAST. REGARDLESS...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/
A POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE CONUS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PARKED OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS
BROAD SYNOPTIC PATTERN...BUT DESPITE THE TWO DISTURBANCES NEAR
US...ONE TO THE SOUTHWEST AND ONE TO THE NORTHEAST...DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES BECAUSE THE SUPPORT IS
NOT STRONG ENOUGH OVER US. FURTHERMORE...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF RAIN OR DRASTIC TEMPERATURE CHANGES FOR NORTH TEXAS DURING
THE UPCOMING WEEK BASED ON OUR POSITION RELATIVE TO THESE FEATURES
AND THEIR PROGGED MOVEMENT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY
FOR OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES BUT AM NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE OR INTENSITY...AS MUCH OF THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
REMAIN JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. OTHER THAN THIS
TIME FRAME...AM EXPECTING A DRY FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTING AND THE MAIN WEATHER-MAKERS BEING
TOO FAR AWAY FROM NORTH TEXAS TO PROVIDE ANY RELIEF FROM THE
HEAT...EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO THE 90S AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS TO DIP INTO THE 70S...WHICH IS NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THE EXTENDED FORECAST DOES LOOK PROMISING REGARDING THE
EVENTUAL RETURN OF COOLER TEMPERATURES AND ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL...BUT THIS WILL LIKELY NOT BE UNTIL AFTER LABOR DAY.

AJS



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  95  76  95  77  94 /  10  10   5   5   5
WACO, TX              93  72  93  74  94 /  20  10  10  10  10
PARIS, TX             93  72  91  71  94 /  20  10  10  10  10
DENTON, TX            95  73  94  75  95 /  10   5   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          93  74  93  74  95 /  10  10   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            96  78  94  77  94 /  10  10   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           93  73  92  74  94 /  10  10  10  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         93  73  94  73  95 /  20  10  20  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            92  71  93  72  94 /  20  10  20  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     94  71  93  73  93 /  10   5   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

05/25


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