Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 181152 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
652 AM CDT Thu May 18 2017

A strong push of Gulf moisture overnight has resulted in MVFR
stratus, which now blankets much of the region. Early morning
satellite imagery reveals cloud cover is gradually becoming more
splotchy, and our now-ascending morning balloon shows that the
saturated layer is actually quite thin just under the capping
inversion. As a result, it appears cigs should fluctuate roughly
around FL020 for a few more hours this morning before diurnal
mixing begins to quickly lift and scatter the cloud deck by around
17Z, potentially even earlier. As mixing ensues, a few streamer
showers will be possible, but these mainly look to impact Waco
later this morning. At Waco, it appears that mechanical mixing has
been too great to allow cigs to build down to IFR. As a result,
have removed any explicit mention from the TAF, although we can`t
rule out a brief dip towards 010 this morning.

The next aviation focus will then turn to thunderstorms, which are
expected to blossom along a dryline this afternoon. There are a
couple conflicting signals in recent high-resolution guidance
regarding storm placement, however. The main focused area of
ascent will remain displaced well to the north and west of the
region--across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. As a result,
convergence along mesoscale features (the dryline) will be a
primary driver of convective initiation today, and where this will
occur is difficult to pinpoint. Earlier guidance seemed keen on
moving a complex of storms across the Metroplex late this
afternoon, but recent runs now seem to be favoring areas to the
south. Given these uncertainties, opted to continue a mention of
VCTS at all sites this afternoon, but a TEMPO for TSRA may be
warranted later as the presently nebulous convective trends
become more clear.

After this activity clears, VFR should prevail for a period this
evening before MVFR stratus once again surges across the TAF sites
late tonight.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CDT Thu May 18 2017/
An upper level low currently over the Intermountain West will be
the main upper level feature of interest through the upcoming
weekend. This low will move south southeastward across Utah today,
then move east and then northeast across Colorado Friday and then
out into the Northern and Central Plains Saturday. As a trailing
trough moves east, a cold front will move southeast into the
northwestern parts of North Texas overnight Friday night and
through the southeastern part of the forecast area before sunset
Saturday. As a surface ridge that will build in behind the cold
front moves east Monday, the front will start to lift back
northward. We will be in northwesterly flow aloft for much of
next week which will keep on and off chances of showers and
thunderstorms in the forecast.

Today...Southerly surface surface winds of 15 to 25 mph will
continue to feed rich Gulf moisture northwards. A dryline is
expected to develop across West Texas which will be the main
focus for thunderstorm development. Expect scattered thunderstorms
to move east into North Texas mid to late afternoon and continue
to develop areally through the evening. Given the strong
instability, steep lapse rates and moderate to strong effective
bulk shear, supercell thunderstorms are likely. These storms will
have the potential to produce golf ball size hail or larger and
damaging downburst winds. In addition, a few tornadoes will also
be possible.

There will be a low chance of showers and thunderstorms Friday
morning but the next significant round of thunderstorms is
expected Friday afternoon and Friday night. We will continue to
have deep moisture, high instabilities and moderate to strong
effective bulk shear in place. Expect showers and thunderstorms
develop ahead of the dryline that should approach the western
parts of the forecast area mid to late afternoon. These
thunderstorms will move into the forecast area. Additional
development is expected overnight Friday night ahead of the cold
front. Once again, large hail and damaging winds are expected with
some of these storms and a few tornadoes cannot be ruled out.

As the cold front moves southeast overnight Friday night into
Saturday, there will also be the potential for some locally heavy
rain that may result in some flash flooding. Rain chances will
decrease across areas north of I-20 Sunday and Sunday night.
As the front lifts back to the north on Monday, chances of showers
and thunderstorms will return area wide. Another cold front will
move through the region overnight Monday night into Tuesday.



Dallas-Ft. Worth    90  72  85  71  80 /  30  50  40  60  70
Waco                90  72  87  72  83 /  30  50  40  40  70
Paris               86  69  84  69  78 /  20  50  40  50  70
Denton              90  71  84  67  78 /  40  50  40  60  60
McKinney            88  70  84  69  79 /  30  50  40  60  70
Dallas              90  72  86  72  81 /  30  50  40  50  70
Terrell             88  72  86  71  81 /  20  50  40  40  70
Corsicana           89  72  88  72  82 /  20  40  40  30  70
Temple              90  72  87  72  84 /  30  40  40  30  60
Mineral Wells       88  70  84  67  77 /  50  50  50  60  60




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