000
FXUS64 KFWD 140418 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1118 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

.AVIATION...
/6Z TAFS/

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT WITH SOME
SCT/BKN HIGH CLOUD SPREADING NORTH FROM SOUTH TEXAS THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
VFR SKIES. UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE
SOUTH WILL HEAD NORTHWARD TOMORROW AND WILL LIKELY INFLUENCE NORTH
TEXAS WEATHER BY SATURDAY WITH SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

DUNN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013/
AN UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE NORTH TEXAS WEATHER...
PREVENTING ALL BUT A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AGAIN TODAY
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS...UNDERNEATH AN UPPER LOW. NOW CENTERED
OVER THE SIERRA MADRE...THE FEATURE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL EFFECTIVELY ERODE THE WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE RIDGE...ESSENTIALLY BUMPING THE HIGH EASTWARD...WHILE
SHIFTING ITS MID-LEVEL ORIENTATION FROM EAST-WEST TO NORTH-SOUTH.
AS THE UPPER LOW TREKS NORTHWARD ON FRIDAY...AFTERNOON CONVECTION
WILL DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH ACROSS WEST TEXAS. THERE WILL REMAIN A
SHARP GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AREAS OF CONVECTION AND THE STRONG
SUBSIDENT AREA UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE. EXPECT OUR WESTERN ZONES WILL
REMAIN RAIN-FREE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ON SATURDAY...THE PROXIMITY OF
THE UPPER LOW MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTION TO IMPACT WESTERN
AND NORTHERN ZONES. WITH THE RAINFALL...THERE WILL REMAIN A SHARP
CONTRAST BETWEEN THE HAVES AND THE HAVE-NOTS. WITHOUT A SURFACE
FOCUS AND SEASONALLY WEAK SHEAR...THE CONVECTION WILL BE
DISORGANIZED...BUT DOWNBURST WINDS MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS.

SOUTH WINDS AT THE SURFACE HAVE MAINTAINED WEAK COLD ADVECTION
FROM THE RAIN-COOLED AIR ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS...AND BACKING WINDS
ALOFT HAVE TEMPERED AND EVEN REVERSED THE COLUMN WARMING THAT
OCCURRED EARLIER IN THE WEEK. AS A RESULT...THE UPPER RIDGE HAS
BEEN UNABLE TO REALIZE ITS FULL POTENTIAL TO INCREASE THE HEAT
CONTENT OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. ALTHOUGH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL...READINGS HAVE REMAINED IN THE
90S. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT A
SLIGHT COOLING TREND (TOWARD NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES) MAY BE IN
THE OFFING FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES. ALTHOUGH
THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE BULK OF THE STATE...
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS MAY ALLOW A FRONT TO
INVADE OKLAHOMA EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE ANY RESULTING CONVECTION
MAY KEEP THE UPPER RIDGE FROM QUICKLY RE-ESTABLISHING ITSELF...
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. THE APPROACHING
SOLSTICE IS HAVING A STRONG INFLUENCE ON THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE...
WHICH ARE UNANIMOUS IN BRING THE RIDGE BACK AND A CORRESPONDING
WARMING TREND DURING THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  77  97  78  97  77 /   0   0   5  20  10
WACO, TX              74  97  75  96  75 /   0   0   5  10  10
PARIS, TX             74  94  73  92  74 /   0   0   5  10  20
DENTON, TX            74  97  75  96  75 /   0   0   5  20  10
MCKINNEY, TX          74  96  74  94  74 /   0   0   5  20  20
DALLAS, TX            78  97  78  96  78 /   0   0   5  20  10
TERRELL, TX           74  96  75  94  75 /   0   0   5  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         75  96  76  94  75 /   0   0   0  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            73  94  73  94  74 /   0   0   0  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     73  97  74  96  74 /   0   0  10  20  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$