Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 012337 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
637 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...NONE. VFR WILL PREVAIL.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS MUCH LOWER TODAY THAN THIS
TIME YESTERDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED THIS EVENING.
THERE IS NO PRECIPITATION MENTION IN THE TAFS AS THE COVERAGE IS
TOO LOW BUT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS RAPIDLY MOVING NORTH TOWARDS
THE DFW AIRPORTS. IT IS POSSIBLE A BRIEF SHOWER COULD DEVELOP
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE METROPLEX BETWEEN NOW
AND 01Z...BUT MORE LIKELY THE ONLY IMPACT TO THE AIRPORTS FROM
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE TO KEEP THE GUSTY WINDS THROUGH SUNSET.
WINDS MAY GUST TO 25-30 KTS FOR UP TO 30 MINS AFTER THE BOUNDARY
PASSES ANY ONE TAF SITE.

OTHERWISE...SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD. WIND SPEEDS OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY DIMINISH AT A FEW
AIRPORTS TO AROUND 10 KTS BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON THURSDAY TO
SPEEDS OF 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE.

JLDUNN

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/
ONCE AGAIN TODAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INVADED FROM
SOUTH TEXAS...BEING GUIDED PRIMARILY BY SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW.
BUT UNLIKE TUESDAY...RIDGING ALOFT IS BUILDING INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY STEADILY DECREASES
DOWNSTREAM OF THE ONGOING ACTIVITY...UNCAPPED MLCAPE VALUES OF
1000-1500J/KG ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTH TEXAS.
DESPITE THIS UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE
SHOULD PREVENT THE CONVECTION FROM PENETRATING MUCH FURTHER INTO
THE CWA. THE ONGOING ACTIVITY ALSO APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING FROM
SOME DOWNGLIDE...WHICH IS LIMITING THE DEPTH OF THE UPDRAFTS...
EVIDENCED BY THE DECREASE IN LIGHTNING. NONETHELESS...THESE CELLS
MAY STILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AT THE SURFACE. THE ACTIVITY WILL
DISSIPATE BY NIGHTFALL WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

THURSDAY STILL APPEARS TO BE A RAIN-FREE DAY REGIONWIDE AS THE
MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXES SLIP INTO SOUTH TEXAS...LIMITING
BOTH CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN NORTH TEXAS AND UPSTREAM
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THE ONSET OF NORTHWEST FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR
DAYTIME ACTIVITY IN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO ARRIVE LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE STRENGTH OF THE FRIDAY SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO
WANE WITH SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUNS...BUT THERE SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE RED RIVER FRIDAY MORNING...WITH A
POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT ON LINGERING BOUNDARIES.
RIDGING TO THE SOUTH SHOULD PREVENT ANY SHOWERS/STORMS SOUTH OF
THE I-20 CORRIDOR.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WHICH WILL
MAINTAIN RAIN CHANCES...MAINLY NORTH AND EAST. EACH DAY...THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR ACTIVITY SLIDING ACROSS THE RED RIVER DURING
THE MORNING HOURS...THOUGH THE FLOW ABOVE THE NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY
LAYER DOES NOT LOOK TO BE PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE. EACH
AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE LOW CHANCES FOR REDEVELOPMENT...WHICH
WILL REQUIRE THOSE ENGAGED IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES TO MAINTAIN
SITUATIONAL AWARENESS...BUT NEITHER DAY LOOKS TO BE A WASHOUT.
SUBTROPICAL RIDGING WILL TAKE HOLD BY MONDAY AND DOMINATE TEXAS
WEATHER NEXT WEEK.

25

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  74  93  75  92  75 /   5   5  10  30  20
WACO, TX              73  92  74  93  75 /  20   0  10  10  10
PARIS, TX             72  90  72  87  72 /   5  10  40  70  40
DENTON, TX            73  93  74  92  73 /   5   5  20  40  20
MCKINNEY, TX          73  92  74  91  73 /   5   5  20  50  30
DALLAS, TX            74  94  76  93  76 /   5   5  10  30  20
TERRELL, TX           73  93  74  91  74 /   5   5  10  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         72  93  73  92  74 /  10   5  10  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            70  92  73  92  73 /  20   5  10   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     71  94  72  93  73 /   5   5  10  20  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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