Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 112052
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
352 PM CDT Wed Oct 11 2017

.SHORT TERM...
/Tonight and Thursday/
Surface high pressure that extended from Central Missouri
southwest into North and Central Texas this afternoon will move
east tonight as a lee side trough deepens. North winds at 5 to 10
mph this afternoon will veer around to the east and southeast
tonight. Some scattered high clouds expected. Some stratus that
can be seen across South Texas on satellite imagery this afternoon
may attempt to move into Central Texas towards/shortly after
daybreak with the return of southerly winds. Lows will be mostly
in the 50s.

Besides maybe some low/mid level clouds across Central Texas,
skies will be mostly sunny Thursday. It will be warmer with
highs in the 80s. Winds will be southerly at 10 mph.

58

&&

.LONG TERM...
North and Central Texas will be underneath the northwest quadrant
of an unseasonably strong mid-level ridge Friday and Saturday. The
70F+ dew points just off the Texas Coast will reach portions of
Central and East Texas on Friday, and the humidity will linger
into the upcoming weekend. With temperatures climbing into the
upper 80s and lower 90s both days, the heat stress will be
extraordinary for mid October. Those engaged in outdoor
activities should remain well hydrated and take frequent breaks
from the heat.

The blustery air currently in Alberta will surge south along the
eastern slope of the Rockies, reaching the Texas Panhandle on
Friday. At that point, this early season cP air mass will be quite
thin, and intensifying southwesterly flow above it should stall
its leading edge. This flow, downstream of a longwave trough
advancing east across western states, will persist until the
trough axis emerges from the Rockies Saturday night. This will
allow a reinforcing shot of cool air to dive into the Southern
Plains, blowing through North and Central Texas on Sunday.

Although a decent low-level jet will provide an ample supply of
low-level moisture Saturday night in advance of the front, the
layer will be rather thin. Strongly veered prefrontal winds and
dry westerly 700mb flow may serve to cap this buoyancy. It still
appears that the best dynamics will remain well to our north with
the main upper trough, but as the front lifts the unstable surface
layer, some postfrontal showers and storms will be possible. The
greater potential for surface-based, prefrontal convection will be
across Central and East Texas, but even there, similar inhibition
will be in place. At this time, it appears the cold front will
likely pass before peak heating, preventing the surface layer from
fully destabilizing.

Pleasant autumn weather will follow on Monday. The warming trend
thereafter will be slow with subtropical ridging focused over
northwestern Mexico and the Desert Southwest. High temperatures
may not reach 80F until Wednesday.

25

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1254 PM CDT Wed Oct 11 2017/
VFR conditions will prevail at the TAF sites through 00z Friday.
As a surface high moves to the east, north winds around 10 knots
will veer around to the northeast this afternoon and east this
evening and southeast overnight. There will be scattered high
clouds through the period. Some broken clouds around 5000 feet may
approach the Waco area Thursday morning. For now have just placed
a SCT050 at KACT starting at 13z.

58

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    58  86  68  90  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                55  86  66  91  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               53  82  64  88  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              55  85  66  90  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            53  83  65  89  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              59  85  68  91  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             55  85  64  90  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           56  85  65  89  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              59  85  66  90  68 /   0   0   0   5   0
Mineral Wells       55  86  65  91  67 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

25/58



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