Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 152005
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
305 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
CONUS FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK. AN UPPER TROUGH CAN BE SEEN ON
SATELLITE HEADED FOR THE EAST COAST...WHILE A MORE SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING ONSHORE OVER CALIFORNIA. AT THE
SURFACE...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVERHEAD WILL CONTINUE ITS
EASTWARD MARCH TOWARDS THE MS RIVER VALLEY. WINDS HAVE BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE ...BUT WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTH AT 5 TO
10 MPH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE AXIS BECOMES CENTERED EAST
OF THE REGION. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BRING ANOTHER
NIGHT OF GOOD RADIATIVE COOLING....THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE
AS COOL AS THIS MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-25 MPH WEDNESDAY DUE TO A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS THE DISTURBANCE OVER THE WEST
COAST APPROACHES. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA...THOUGH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 30 MPH WILL NOT BE
SURPRISING. THE SHORT DURATION OF RETURN FLOW WILL LIMIT MOISTURE
RETURN AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...AND PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN PRETTY SPARSE AS THE DISTURBANCE CROSSES
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY. THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON HOWEVER...AS A WEAK PACIFIC
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST AND PROVIDES FOCUS FOR
DEVELOPMENT. WE WILL INCLUDE 30 POPS NEAR THE RED RIVER FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH 10-20 POPS ELSEWHERE. MODEL
DATA CONTINUES TO INDICATE ONLY MODEST AMOUNTS OF CAPE /ON THE
ORDER OF 500 J/KG/...WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH PWATS OF LESS THAN 1
INCH WILL LIMIT NOT ONLY COVERAGE BUT SEVERE POTENTIAL.

THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH BY FRIDAY WITH RETURN FLOW
EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A DEEPER UPPER TROUGH WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY...BUT WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF
DAMPENING AS IT PASSES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE MORE MOISTURE IN PLACE
WITH PWATS INCREASING TO BETWEEN 1.25 AND 1.5 INCHES...AND MODEL
PROJECTIONS ARE ALSO INDICATING BETTER INSTABILITY THAN THE
THURSDAY SYSTEM. THE MAIN DISCREPANCY CONTINUES TO BE WITH REGARD
TO THE TIMING OF BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. THE GFS FOCUSES
ON SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WHILE BOTH THE CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN
ARE FOCUSED ON SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WE WILL LIKELY NOT GO
ANY HIGHER THAN 30 POPS FOR NOW FROM LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY AS A WEAK FRONT
SAGS SOUTH AND STALLS OVER THE AREA. OTHERWISE...UPPER RIDGING
WILL BRING ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.

30

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  41  69  50  69  54 /   5   5  10  20  20
WACO, TX              39  69  50  71  55 /   5   5   5  10  10
PARIS, TX             37  66  43  66  50 /   5   5   5  20  30
DENTON, TX            39  67  48  67  49 /   5   5  10  20  30
MCKINNEY, TX          36  65  46  67  49 /   5   5  10  20  30
DALLAS, TX            42  67  50  68  54 /   5   5   5  20  20
TERRELL, TX           38  67  46  69  51 /   5   5   5  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         40  68  48  71  54 /   5   5   5  10  20
TEMPLE, TX            38  69  50  72  55 /   5   5   5  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     38  70  48  69  51 /   5   5  10  20  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




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