Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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138
FXUS64 KFWD 190803
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
303 AM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A broad ridge of high pressure was anchored from the central/
southern High Plains eastward all the way into the Deep South
early this morning. This pattern is relatively normal for this
time of the year. Mid level heights near the center of the upper
high will be pushing 600 decameters, as the high center remains
anchored over Kansas/Oklahoma the remainder of the week. High
temperatures ranging from the mid 90s to around the century mark
will be prevalent through Wednesday.

Water vapor satellite imagery does depict some moisture trapped
within the ridge across the southeast half of the CWA today and we
tend to call these types of upper highs a `dirty ridge`. A few
diurnal showers and thunderstorms may develop within the better
moist axis across the far east-southeastern counties late this
afternoon and early evening before nightfall. With lapse rates
aloft being minimal, we do not expect activity to persist long in
one place or be strong to severe.

The core of the upper high will strengthen and expand mid-late
week and suspect many areas will hit the century mark for the
first time by Thursday, with similar dry and hot conditions
maintaining into the coming weekend. If there is a plus side to
the heat, it will be that deep mixing will help mix surface dew
point temperatures down enough to keep afternoon heat index
values relatively close to the actual ambient high temperatures.
The only concern for higher heat index values later this week will
be those areas east of the I-35E/I-45 corridors where denser
vegetation and evapotranspiration should help keep surface dew
points up a little higher with heat index values hovering around
105 degrees from Thursday into the weekend.

It appears a weakening of the broad upper level high pressure
dome occurs early next week, as a vigorous shortwave trough
transverses across the Northern Plains and into the Great Lakes.
The European model is stronger with this feature than the GFS with
regard to how much this degrades the upper high over the Southern
Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley. Either way, there will be an
increase in moisture contained within easterly low-mid level flow
along the southern periphery of the upper high over North and
Central Texas. Slight chances for showers and thunderstorms have
been maintained for the first half of next week, though overall
confidence remains low regarding the mid level pattern changes.

05/

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1141 PM CDT MON JUL 18 2016/
VFR conditions expected to continue at all TAF sites through the
period with sct060 to perhaps bkn060 afternoon cumulus on
Tuesday. Generally light southeast winds of around 8 to 12 kts
will prevail.

For the Metroplex sites, a bit more moisture in the lower levels
is forecast to work in from the east Tuesday afternoon, which may
enable isolated convection to intrude a bit closer to the
Metroplex airspace. That said, given the degree of large-scale
subsidence in place, the main threat for diurnal convection still
appears to be relegated to the east and have forgone any mention
in the 06Z TAFs.

For Waco, any MVFR stratus is expected to remain to the south and
east given the light low-level winds tonight and unimpressive
moisture profiles. In addition, the more easterly steering flow
tomorrow should keep any sea breeze induced convection to the
south of the TAF site during the afternoon and evening.

Carlaw


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    96  78  99  78 100 /   5   5   0   0   0
Waco                98  77  99  77 100 /   5   5   0   0   0
Paris               96  76  97  76  99 /  20  10  10   5   0
Denton              95  75  97  75  99 /   5   5   0   0   0
McKinney            95  76  97  76  99 /  10   5   5   0   0
Dallas              96  78  98  78 100 /   5   5   0   0   0
Terrell             95  76  97  76 100 /  10   5   5   5   0
Corsicana           96  77  97  77 100 /  10   5   5   5   0
Temple              98  75  98  75 100 /   5   5   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       97  74  98  74 100 /   0   5   0   0   0

&&

.FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

/05



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