Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 021210 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
710 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...SHOWERS/STORMS EARLY...OTHERWISE VFR.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE 800MB FRONT AROUND MIDNIGHT GRADUALLY
TRANSITIONED TO AN ELEVATED QLCS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
THIS ACTIVITY HAS MAINTAINED ITS INTENSITY...MOVING TOWARD THE
RICHER MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. THE THUNDER IS COMING
TO AN END ACROSS THE METROPLEX BUT WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT CENTRAL
TEXAS AIRPORTS THROUGH MID-MORNING. AFTER THE PRECIPITATION COMES
TO AN END...SKIES WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR WITH A LAYER OF MOISTURE
TRAPPED BETWEEN 600MB AND 700MB (FL100-140).

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/
A SHORTWAVE WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY
AND RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STORMS WILL
APPROACH OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE MOISTURE IS THE DEEPEST. HAIL AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. STORM CHANCES WILL DECREASE
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE
DEPARTS TO THE EAST AND A REINFORCEMENT OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR
FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH.

DRY AND SUBSIDENT AIR IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WHICH WILL
RESULT IN DECREASING CLOUDS AND LOWER PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
HOWEVER...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RETURN
TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES WHEN A WEAK SHORTWAVE
ROTATES AROUND THE BASE OF A CENTRAL PLAINS UPPER TROUGH. SINCE
MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED WE WILL KEEP ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS MENTIONED.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AND RESULT IN WARM AND TRANQUIL WEATHER WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE REGION ON
SATURDAY AS A DEEP UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS
APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND
LIFT ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS
ACROSS WESTERN ZONES SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH STORM CHANCES
INCREASING AND SPREADING EAST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
ACTIVE WEATHER WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK SINCE THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO REMAIN STRONG AND BE A
VERY SLOW MOVER.

79

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH    70  50  73  56  81 /  30   5   5   5   0
WACO                69  49  73  52  80 /  40   5   5   5   0
PARIS               69  48  71  53  78 /  30   5   5   0   0
DENTON              68  46  73  52  81 /  20   5   5  10   0
MCKINNEY            69  47  73  53  79 /  30   5   5   5   0
DALLAS              70  51  74  56  81 /  30   5   5   5   0
TERRELL             70  49  72  54  79 /  30   5   5   0   0
CORSICANA           70  50  73  54  79 /  40   5   5   0   0
TEMPLE              68  49  74  51  80 /  40  10   5   0   0
MINERAL WELLS       69  46  74  50  81 /  20   5   5  10   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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