Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 310838
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
338 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER TROUGH IS NOW MOVING EAST OF THE REGION WITH NORTHERLY
FLOW THROUGH THE TROPOSPHERE SETTING UP OVER NORTH TEXAS. COOLER
AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE AREA...BUT SOME
CLOUDS WRAPPING AROUND AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF AT THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE THE NORTHEASTERN AND EASTERN PARTS
OF THE CWA TODAY. THESE CLOUDS WILL ENSURE AN UNSEASONABLY COOL
DAY WITH HIGH IN THE MID 70S ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES...BUT
TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
ZONES WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER 80S WITH MORE SUNSHINE.

MOST OF THE LOW CLOUD COVER SHOULD ERODE BY THIS EVENING AND A
MOSTLY CLEAR...COOL AND TRANQUIL NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. BY SUNRISE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS OR
EVEN A FEW ELEVATED LIGHT SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
ZONES. THESE WILL FORM IN A ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT...BUT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LOOKS TOO FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO
WARRANT A MENTION IN THE FORECAST. THIS LIFT WILL REPEAT AGAIN ON
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES...WHEN
ELEVATED MOISTURE/INSTABILITY LOOK A LITTLE BETTER. WILL INCLUDE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE WEST SINCE THERE ARE
SEVERAL MODELS HINTING AT SOME QPF. EITHER WAY THIS ACTIVITY IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY SIGNIFICANT.

OTHERWISE THE SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS RETURN MONDAY AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 80S BY LATE
WEEK...WITH SOME SITES FLIRTING WITH 90 NEXT WEEKEND. WITH THE
WARMING TEMPERATURES...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE ON THE
INCREASE. GIVEN THE RECENT RAINS AND VERY WET SOILS...WE EXPECT A
TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF EVAPORATION THIS WEEK WHICH MEANS MODELS ARE
LIKELY TOO WARM WITH HIGH TEMPS AND TOO LOW WITH DEWPOINTS.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH BUILDING IN ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH WILL KEEP THE AIRMASS
GENERALLY SUBSIDENT. HOWEVER WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW
POP-UP AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS BY LATE WEEK.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE DISORGANIZED...AND LIKELY TOO SPARSE TO
WARRANT MENTIONING IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

TR.92

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1126 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015/
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH DAYBREAK AT THE METROPLEX TAF
SITES...HOWEVER...LOW CLOUDS...WITH MVFR CEILINGS...MAY DEVELOP
AFTER SUNRISE. THUS HAVE PLACED BKN020 IN THE TAFS FROM 14Z
THROUGH 19Z...WITH CEILINGS RISING TO VFR AFTERWARDS. WINDS AT 5
TO 10 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.

A SIMILAR SCENARIO IS EXPECTED AT WACO...EXPECT CEILINGS BETWEEN
2500-3500 FEET TO DEVELOP 06-08Z. MVFR CEILINGS ARE THEN EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL THROUGH MIDDAY /17Z/...WITH CEILINGS IMPROVING TO VFR
THEREAFTER. NORTH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL.

58


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  77  62  82  66  84 /   5   5   5  10  10
WACO, TX              81  60  83  63  84 /   5   5   5  10  10
PARIS, TX             74  59  80  61  81 /  10   5   5   5   5
DENTON, TX            76  57  81  63  83 /   5   5   5  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          75  58  81  61  83 /   5   5   5  10  10
DALLAS, TX            79  63  83  67  85 /   5   5   5  10  10
TERRELL, TX           76  60  82  63  83 /  10   5   5  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         78  60  82  64  84 /  10   5   5  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            82  59  84  63  85 /   5   5   5  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     78  57  82  63  85 /   5  10  10  20  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



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