Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 171754 AAB
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1254 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017


.AVIATION...
Breezy south-southeasterly surface winds with occasional gusts to
around 25 kts will occur today. VFR will prevail, but skies will
be muddied up by high cloud cover courtesy of a rapidly decaying
complex of storms across southeastern Oklahoma.

A flourishing field of MVFR stratus will emerge out of the Hill
Country tonight and head northeast on the low-level jet. Like the
past few mornings, gradually veering flow should direct the brunt
of low cigs just east of the TAF sites, but with such an
abundance of moisture trapped under the capping inversion, most
locations will be within a whisper of supersaturation, and it
seems logical to expect at least some splotchy westward
development of the low cloud deck late tonight and into Sunday
morning. Low cigs will then diurnally lift and scatter during the
mid-morning hours.

Later this afternoon, a large complex of thunderstorms is forecast
to develop across portions of southern Kansas before sinking into
Oklahoma overnight. While considerable weakening of this activity
is anticipated towards daybreak on Sunday, copious amounts of
elevated instability and lingering 25-35 kts of low-level flow may
allow the carcass of the decaying MCS to leak towards the Red
River. While no thunder impacts are anticipated at the Metroplex
sites, this activity will likely cause issues for northbound
departures/arrivals. This activity will also facilitate the
southward push of our next cold front, and have added a northeast
wind shift to the DFW extended TAF. There will be a thunder
potential after 19/00Z with activity behind the front, but this
will be addressed in future TAF issuances.

Carlaw

&&


.UPDATE... /Issued 1140 AM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017/
The thunderstorm complex currently moving through southeastern
Oklahoma continues to weaken as it approaches the Red River. We
expect this trend to continue with the loss of the nocturnal low
level jet. The complex is also into moving into more stable air
which should weaken it as well. A few decaying storms may produce
some brief showers across the northeast zones this afternoon so
will add some sight chance PoPs for the update.

The high cloud cover over the region this morning has kept temps
just a touch cooler than yesterday at this time. But plenty of
heating is still taking place under the thin veil of cirrus so we
still expect a very hot afternoon. Therefore, we will leave the
heat advisory in place.

79

&&

.DISCUSSION... /Issued 354 AM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017/
The axis of an upper level ridge centered over Northern Mexico
and the Desert Southwest extends east into the Southern Plains and
North/Central Texas. Subsidence associated with the ridge,
plentiful sunshine and abundant low level moisture will lead to
another uncomfortably hot day across the forecast area. Forecast
high temperatures today will range from the mid 90s across the
east to 102 across the west. Heat indices in the 105-110 range
will be more widespread today than Friday, and the heat advisory
will include all but the eastern-most row of counties. Folks with
outdoor plans this weekend should take precautions to protect
themselves from the oppressive heat, including limiting strenuous
outdoor activities during the heat of the day and keeping
hydrated.

A change in the weather pattern (albeit brief) is expected later
this weekend into early next week. A fast-moving shortwave trough
currently over Montana will drop southeast across the Central
Plains tonight, then help deepen an upper trough over the Ohio
Valley on Sunday. This will intensify the deep-layer northwest
flow, which will force a cold front southward through the
Southern Plains and into North Texas. The most recent set of
model guidance has strengthened the southward push and sped up
the arrival of the cold front.

The latest thinking is that the front will begin crossing the Red
River Sunday afternoon, push south across the I-20 corridor Sunday
night and become stationary somewhere across the southern CWA on
Monday. There should be enough low level convergence for isolated
thunderstorms along the front Sunday afternoon. Due to the time of
day, instability will be sufficient for a few severe storms with
large hail and damaging winds. The caveat is that there may be a
southward moving MCS (similar to the past several days) rounding
the eastern periphery of the ridge tonight and diving through the
Southern Plains Sunday morning. Remnants of the MCS may spread
clouds and cooler air into the northern counties, limiting the
instability as the front arrives Sunday afternoon. Hence POPs
Sunday afternoon will remain a conservative 20-30 percent for
now.

Stronger ascent will arrive Sunday night as the shortwave axis
drops southeast across the Arklatex region. Scattered showers and
storms should accompany the front, with the highest POPs across
the northeast where the stronger forcing will occur. The threat
for severe weather will decrease as surface heating wanes but
some strong storms with gusty winds will remain possible
overnight. The upper level system will move east of the area on
Monday, but the proximity of the quasi-stationary front will
warrant some 20 to 30 POPs on Monday, with activity coming to an
end Monday night.

The front and associated cloudcover should bring some welcomed
relief to the heat, with highs on Monday ranging from the upper
80s across the north to lower 90s across the south. The ridge will
then nose its way back to the east on Tuesday while the front
washes out, bringing a return to the hot and humid conditions for
mid and late next week, and likely into next weekend.

30

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    98  79  96  73  90 /   0   0  10  40  30
Waco                99  77  97  74  93 /   0   0   5  20  30
Paris               94  75  89  69  89 /  20   0  30  50  20
Denton              98  78  94  70  90 /   0   0  20  40  20
McKinney            97  77  94  70  89 /   5   0  20  40  30
Dallas              99  79  96  74  91 /   0   0  10  40  30
Terrell             96  77  94  72  90 /   5   0  10  40  30
Corsicana           96  77  94  74  91 /   0   0   5  30  30
Temple             100  76  97  74  93 /   0   0   5  10  20
Mineral Wells      100  76  96  70  90 /   0   0  10  30  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091>094-100-101-
105-115-116-121-129>134-141>147-156>162-174-175.

Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ102>104-117>120.

&&

$$

90/79



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