Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 190841
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
341 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL FEATURE CONTINUED CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN MANY AREAS...WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE DEEPEST
MOISTURE COINCIDES WITH WEAK LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT.
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS ARE NOT EXPECTED...SO NO HEADLINES OR
WATCHES WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...VERY HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT AND SLOW MOVEMENT OF CONVECTION COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED
AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN INTO THE WEEKEND.

THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO WEST TEXAS TODAY. SOME OF THIS
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL AFFECT WESTERN PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS LATER
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND A GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL WARRANT SOME HIGHER CHANCE POPS IN THOSE AREAS
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT. THE RAIN CHANCES ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE
FROM AROUND 50 PERCENT IN THE WEST NEAR THE GREATEST DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE TO 20 PERCENT IN THE EAST WHERE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

A COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH IN THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...IS STILL FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...BUT THOSE
CHANCES APPEAR LOW GIVEN THE RELATIVELY SHALLOW FORCING FOR
ASCENT NEAR AN EXPANDING UPPER RIDGE. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL NOT BE SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER...BUT LOW LEVEL DRYING AND THE
RESULTING COOLER NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE NOTICEABLE.

DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK
AS THE UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES MOST OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY. A WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM CA/NV ON
SUNDAY INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
THIS SHORTWAVE MAY TEMPORARILY WEAKEN OR SUPPRESS THE UPPER
RIDGE SOUTHWARD...BUT THE EFFECTS OF THE WAVE WILL BE TOO FAR NORTH TO
BRING ANY RAIN CHANCES TO NORTH TEXAS. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
TO AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL OR PERHAPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY PERIOD.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1134 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/
PRECIPITATION HAS ALL BUT ENDED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING
FOLLOWING SEVERAL HOURS OF DECREASING SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF
IFR DEVELOPMENT IN THE WACO AREA WHERE LIGHT WINDS...RECENT RAINS
AND COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RESIDE. MOST NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE DROPS KACT INTO IFR RANGE BETWEEN 06 AND 09Z...AND THE
LATEST TAF WILL NOT VENTURE TOO FAR FROM THOSE NUMBERS.
CONDITIONS SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS BLEAK IN THE DALLAS-FORT WORTH
AREA WHERE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR HAS WORKED ITS WAY IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST. WE WILL INDICATE MVFR CIGS FROM JUST PRIOR TO
SUNRISE...CONTINUING THROUGH MID DAY...WITH VFR EXPECTED
THEREAFTER.

AS FAR AS CONVECTION IS CONCERNED...IT APPEARS THE BRUNT OF THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE SHUNTED FARTHER
SOUTHWEST AND AWAY FROM AREA TAFS...AND ANY POSSIBLE CONVECTION
WOULD LIKELY BE TOO ISOLATED TO MENTION IN THIS SET OF FORECASTS.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL
LOCATIONS.

30


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  90  73  91  73  92 /  20  10  30  20  20
WACO, TX              89  72  91  72  92 /  30  20  30  20  20
PARIS, TX             88  69  89  68  90 /  10  10  20  20  20
DENTON, TX            90  71  90  70  92 /  10  10  30  20  20
MCKINNEY, TX          88  70  89  68  91 /  10  10  20  20  20
DALLAS, TX            89  74  90  73  91 /  20  10  20  20  20
TERRELL, TX           88  71  90  70  91 /  10  10  20  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         89  71  91  71  92 /  20  10  20  20  20
TEMPLE, TX            88  72  89  71  91 /  40  20  40  20  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     89  71  88  69  90 /  30  30  50  30  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /09





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