Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KFWD 232050
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
250 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
DRY...BREEZY AND WARM CONDITIONS WERE OCCURRING ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH
AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WERE NOTED AS OF 2 PM. A STRONG VORTICITY
MAX WAS MOVING EAST OVER WEST TEXAS RESULTING IN THE DEEPENING OF
A SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST NORTHWEST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
CURRENTY AND WAS APPROACHING WICHITA AFLLS AND ABILENE. GUSTY
NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 20 TO 30 MPH AND TEMPERATURES FALLING
RAPIDLY INTO THE 40S WERE NOTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LITTLE
MOISTURE WAS PRESENT WITH THE VERY STRONG WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
WITH NO RAINFALL OCCURRING ALONG THE COLD FRONT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER INTO OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...THEN PROGRESS THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA BY
MIDNIGHT. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH SOME
OVERNIGHT WITH DECOUPLING OF THE COLD AND DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AIR.
WE HAVE MAINTAINED THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY TIMING AND AREA FOR
NOW...THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE AREA OR TIME MAY
OCCUR AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL BETWEEN 35 TO 45 DEGREES WITH WIND CHILLS BY
SUNRISE MONDAY AROUND OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING EXPECTED NORTH OF
I-20.

THE BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S WILL REMAIN BLOCKED
BY A STRONG UPPER RIDGE JUST OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. MORE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH
AND MAINTAIN THE COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. OCCASIONALLY BRISK CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
EARLY THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS BOTH DAYS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S ACROSS
THE NORTH TO BETWEEN 60 AND 65 DEGREES SOUTH INTO CENTRAL TEXAS.

A STRENGTHENING EASTERN PACIFIC UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS BY THE LATE
WEEK PERIOD AND WILL HELP NUDGE THE CURRENT UPPER LONGWAVE TROUGH
EAST ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS UPPER TROUGH
WILL DAMPEN...AS WILL THE EASTERN PACIFIC UPPER RIDGE AS STRONG
MID LEVEL ENERGY MOVES SOUTHEAST FROM WESTERN CANADA. THE
SUBSEQUENT STRONG NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THAT DEVELOPS OVER MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL U.S FOR THANKSGIVING INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL
RESULT IN STRONG LEE SIDE PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
OF COLORADO AND WYOMING. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARM ADVECTION
WILL HELP MODIFY HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 60S AND 70S. THE
EXTENDED MODELS DIVERGE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TOWARD THE
END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND BEYOND. A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH WAS
AGREED UPON WITH SISTER OFFICES TO MAINTAIN A DRY AND NEAR
SEASONABLE FORECAST FOR THE FAR EXTENDED WITH UNCERTAINTY ON THE
OVERALL PATTERN BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.

05/

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1123 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/
/18Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...STRONG W-NW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL
RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT CROSSWIND ISSUES IN THE METROPLEX...IN
PARTICULAR ON N-S RUNWAYS. SPEEDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER AT KACT.

DFW TAF SITES...A STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS OKLAHOMA WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH WESTERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST TEXAS. AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST
THIS AFTERNOON...STRONG WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INVADE
THE REGION AND THEN BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY AS THE FRONT
ARRIVES THIS EVENING. TO START THE TAF...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL FOR A FEW HOURS WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 15-20 KTS WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS. BY 22Z...EXPECT WNW WINDS SUSTAINED
20-25 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS. THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE AROUND
24/00-24/01Z RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY MORE NW WINDS. WIND SPEEDS AND
GUSTS WILL START TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND THEN SPEEDS WILL
EVENTUALLY DROP BELOW 12 KTS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SIGNIFICANT
CROSSWIND ISSUES BETWEEN 22-03Z.

WACO...WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING THROUGH OKLAHOMA...WIND
SPEEDS AT KACT WILL BE LOWER THAN THE METROPLEX. SOUTHWEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 15-20 KTS AND THEN
THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 24/01Z AS THE COLD
FRONT ARRIVES. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 15-20 KTS RANGE FOR
A FEW HOURS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 25-30
KTS. SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING AND THEN EVENTUALLY
DROP BELOW 10 KTS OVERNIGHT.

82/JLD


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  42  61  39  60  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              41  63  35  61  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             41  57  34  56  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            39  60  35  58  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          39  60  34  58  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            42  62  39  60  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           42  61  35  60  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         42  63  37  62  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            41  63  35  62  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     38  61  35  56  35 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>120-129>132-141.


&&

$$

 /05





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.