Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 270731
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
231 AM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FEW CHANGES TO THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW
SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES IN THE SOUTH TODAY AS THE WEAK UPPER
SYSTEM MOVES EAST. THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE LAST CHANCE FOR ANY
PRECIP IN THE AREA THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
PROG A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING...AND PRECIP
CHANCES INCREASE BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF CONTINUES
TO ADVERTISE UPPER SUPPORT FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS...AND
SHOULD THAT OCCUR QPF WOULD BE MORE ROBUST. AFTER THE FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH...IT LOOKS LIKE NORTH TX WILL ENTER A DRY PATTERN
ONCE AGAIN.

EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 80S WITH A FEW 90S...AND LOWS IN THE 60S
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 90S WILL BECOME MORE PREVALENT ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 70S. HUMIDITY
WILL ALSO INCREASE AS SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE GULF INCREASES AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL DEPEND ON THE FRONTAL
POSITION DURING THE DAY. IF THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH FASTER THAN THE
CURRENT PROGS INDICATE...THE 90S WE ARE FORECASTING FOR THE
SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY WILL BE TOO HIGH. SATURDAY WILL FIND HIGHS IN
THE 70S/80S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S/60S. 84

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1105 PM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WAS LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE BIG BEND AT
04Z /11 PM CDT/ WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS
SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF A COMANCHE /KMKN/ TO HILLSBORO /KINJ/ TO
ATHENS /KF44/ LINE WITH BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS. THE RAIN CHANCES AT THE WACO TAF SITE ARE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. EXPECT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 5 TO
10 KNOTS TO PREVAIL.

58


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  88  68  90  68  90 /  10   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              88  64  90  63  91 /  20   5   5   5   0
PARIS, TX             84  64  84  63  85 /   5   0   5   0   0
DENTON, TX            87  63  88  62  88 /   5   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          87  63  88  63  89 /   5   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            88  69  90  69  90 /  10   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           90  66  90  66  91 /  10   0   5   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         89  66  90  66  90 /  10   5   5   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            88  64  91  64  91 /  20   5   5   5   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     86  63  88  64  89 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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