Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 270023
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
723 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS AND SOUTH FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST AT DFW AREA TAF SITES...WHILE WACO MAY SEE SOME EARLY
MORNING MVFR STRATUS TOMORROW.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION GENERALLY SUPPORT THE CONTINUATION OF MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THROUGH THE VALID FORECAST PERIOD. THE PERSISTENCE OF
SOUTHERLY WINDS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SOME SHALLOW GULF
MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTH IN THE FORM OF MVFR STRATUS EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING. AT THIS TIME MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT
STRATUS WILL BUILD OVER THE WACO AREA...BUT STAY JUST EAST OF DFW
AREA TAF SITES DUE TO VEERED WINDS TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST JUST
ABOVE GROUND LEVEL. IF STRATUS BUILDS FARTHER WEST THAN
EXPECTED...WILL HAVE TO INCLUDE 2-3 HOURS OF MVFR STRATUS OVER DFW
AREA TAF SITES IN FUTURE FORECASTS OR AMENDMENTS. THE STRATUS
BEARING LAYER LOOKS VERY SHALLOW IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS...SO
STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AFTER A COUPLE OF HOURS OF
HEATING MONDAY MORNING.

CAVANAUGH


&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014/
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING EAST THROUGH THE INTER-MOUNTAIN
WEST AND AS A RESULT SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS OCCURRING IN THE
PLAINS TODAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE REGION TO 10
TO 20 MPH...AND THESE WINDS WILL RESULT IN THE TRANSPORT OF LOW
LEVEL GULF MOISTURE INTO NORTH TEXAS. STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS LATE TONIGHT AND MOVE INTO THE CWA BY
SUNRISE. THE INCREASED WINDS AND MOISTURE WILL KEEP LOW TEMPS A
LITTLE WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S. MOST OF THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS WILL MIX OUT BY
MID-LATE MORNING BEFORE REACHING THE I-20 CORRIDOR...AND AN
OTHERWISE SUNNY DAY IS EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH MOST LOCATIONS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 80S.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS TOMORROW NIGHT
AND SEND A COLD FRONT INTO NORTH TEXAS BY TUESDAY. MOST OF THE
DYNAMIC FORCING WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA...AND SCATTERED
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT
OVER OKLAHOMA. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY 20 POPS ALONG THE RED RIVER
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING FOR ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY THAT MAY CLIP THAT
AREA. OTHERWISE THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL BE EXITING THE REGION
TUESDAY WHEN THE COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE CWA. THUS
FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY DRY...BUT MOISTURE MAY BE
SUFFICIENT OVER THE EASTERN ZONES FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED
STORM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA...WITH LOW TO MID 80S OVER THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST ZONES
WHERE FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

THE COLD FRONT WILL LOSE ITS MOMENTUM BY TUESDAY EVENING AS THE
UPPER TROUGH HEADS OFF TO THE EAST...AND THEREFORE WILL SLOW DOWN
AND STALL ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS. SOME LOW CHANCE OF
RAIN WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA SOUTH OF I-20 TUESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE BUT A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSE IN THE FLOW WILL RESULT IN SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
FOR A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS/STORMS. POPS WILL REMAIN LOW WITH
LITTLE SIGNIFICANT RAIN EXPECTED. DRIER AIR PUSHES INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES OVER MOST OF NORTH TEXAS. HIGHS
WILL TOP OUT IN THE 70S WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY...AND PRODUCES QUITE A BIT OF
SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE CWA. DUE TO THE STRONG DYNAMIC LIFT
AND COOLING WITH THIS FEATURE IN THE MODEL...THE ECMWF ADVERTISES
IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG OF UNCAPPED SURFACE INSTABILITY. THE GFS
REMAINS WEAK WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE...AND THEREFORE SHOWS
LIMITED LIFT...A STABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE...AND NO QPF. WILL
RETAIN THE 20 POPS IN THE FORECAST...BUT THESE WILL NEED TO BE
ADJUSTED UP OR DOWN WHEN THESE MODELS CAN FINALLY AGREE.

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL SET UP OVER TEXAS BY FRIDAY AND SEND
A CANADIAN HIGH SOUTHEAST INTO THE MIDWEST BY NEXT WEEKEND. THIS
WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY COOLING TO NEAR NORMAL
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THE CORE OF THE COLD AIRMASS WILL STAY
TO OUR NORTHEAST...BUT HIGHS NEAR 70 AND LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO
MID 50S ARE EXPECTED HERE.

SOUTH WINDS AND MOISTURE RETURN BY LATE SUNDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER
LONGWAVE TROUGH. INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS TROUGH WILL TAKE A MORE
SOUTHERLY ROUTE...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN SOME DECENT CHANCES OF
MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AROUND ELECTION DAY. WE WILL WATCH THIS
SYSTEM WITH INTEREST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT IT IS TOO EARLY
TO COUNT ON RAINFALL AT THIS POINT.

TR.92

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  65  87  66  78  56 /   0   5  10  10  10
WACO, TX              64  85  66  83  58 /   0   5   5  10  20
PARIS, TX             60  83  63  75  53 /   0   5  20  30  20
DENTON, TX            63  86  63  76  50 /   0   5  10  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          63  86  64  76  51 /   0   5  10  20  10
DALLAS, TX            66  86  67  78  57 /   0   5  10  10  10
TERRELL, TX           63  85  67  78  56 /   0   5  10  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         63  85  67  82  60 /   0   5   5  10  30
TEMPLE, TX            60  85  65  83  60 /   0   5   5  10  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     61  87  61  76  52 /   0   5  10  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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