Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 272310
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
610 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

AS OF 23Z...RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA INDICATED THAT RAIN SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WAS DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS NEAR KACT. WILL NOT CARRY ANY
PRECIPITATION IN THE KACT TAF THIS EVENING AS A RESULT. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CUMULUS FIELD WITH VERY LITTLE VERTICAL
EXTENT ACROSS THE DFW AREA...SO THERE ARE NO THUNDERSTORM OR RAIN
SHOWER CONCERNS FOR THIS EVENING FOR ALL OF THE DFW AREA TAF
SITES.

ASSUMING NO NEW RAIN SHOWERS OR STORMS DEVELOP NEAR KACT...ALL
AREA TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN UNDER VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
NORTHERLY FLOW THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY...SO RAIN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES APPEAR TO BE VERY LOW AT THIS TIME.

CAVANAUGH

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015/
THE WEAK COLD FRONT IS NOW DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS AND IT
CONTINUES TO PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION
HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN AN AXIS OF HIGHER MOISTURE THAT HAS POOLED
ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE FRONT AND MOISTURE AXIS WILL SHIFT
GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE CWA TONIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN MENTIONED ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WITH DECREASING DEWPOINTS AS LIGHT NORTHERLY
WINDS ADVECT DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BENEFIT
FROM DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND DROP INTO THE 60S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. HIGHS SUNDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY...BUT
DEWPOINTS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER...SO IT SHOULD STILL FEEL
FAIRLY PLEASANT FOR LATE JUNE.

THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT LATE SUNDAY AND SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL BEGIN WITH MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASING BY MONDAY. THIS
MEANS THE SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN WILL SPREAD A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTH MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WILL KEEP POPS CONFINED TO GENERALLY
THE SOUTHERN CWA. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
DROP THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT WHICH MAY HELP
FORM A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS...SO WILL SHOW SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA THEN. THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE VERY SIGNIFICANT DUE TO THE TIME OF THE DAY THE
FORCING COMES ACROSS WHEN INSTABILITY IS MOST LIMITED. THE
SOUTHEAST CWA SHOULD STILL BE IN A REGION OF LIFT DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY...SO WILL SHOW LOW CHANCE POPS THERE. OTHERWISE
SUBSIDENCE WILL BE SPREADING INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE TROUGH
AXIS...WHICH MEANS GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL REBOUND
TO NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.

MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FORECAST A PERSISTENT STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WITH A TROUGH OVER THE EAST.
THIS WILL KEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE AND GENERALLY
LIMIT THE MOISTURE AVAILABLE OVER THE REGION. THUS WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF VERY STRAY AFTERNOON CONVECTION...HOT AND DRY WEATHER
WILL PREVAIL. HIGH TEMPS WILL PLATEAU OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 90S
AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AND HELP MAINTAIN A FETCH OF SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR OFF THE GULF.

BY LATE IN THE WEEK A COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS IN THE AMPLIFIED FLOW ALOFT. THIS FRONT WILL REPRESENT THE
NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN CHANCES...BUT AT THIS TIME IT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN OKLAHOMA WITH RAIN CHANCES NORTH OF THE CWA
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY THE FRONT COULD
SLIP FARTHER SOUTH AND BRING LOW RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA. GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR THE FRONT CAN MAKE IT...HAVE ONLY ADDED
POPS TO THE NORTHERN ZONES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

TR.92

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  69  91  72  93  74 /   0   0   5  10  20
WACO, TX              68  90  70  92  72 /  10  10   5  20  20
PARIS, TX             67  88  69  91  71 /   0   0   5  10  20
DENTON, TX            64  90  68  93  72 /   0   0   5  10  20
MCKINNEY, TX          65  90  68  92  72 /   0   0   5  10  20
DALLAS, TX            70  92  74  95  75 /   0   0   5  10  20
TERRELL, TX           68  90  70  92  73 /   0   0   5  10  20
CORSICANA, TX         69  90  71  92  72 /  10   5   5  10  20
TEMPLE, TX            68  90  70  91  71 /  20  10  10  20  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     65  89  67  94  70 /   0   0   5  10  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



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