Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 220540 AAC
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1240 AM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFs/

A shallow cold front continues it`s march southeast into Central
and East Texas as of midnight. Challenges will be cigs through the
morning hours and convective trends through dawn, but with large
scale ascent shifting east-northeast of the region, would not
expect widespread convective activity along the shallow frontal
inversion at Waco. VCTS will suffice at all airports into the
predawn hours, before post-frontal MVFR/TEMPO IFR stratus occurs
through midday. CAA and some storm outflow will drive NNW winds 15
to 25 knots, with FROPA occurring at Waco by 08Z-09Z.

The gusty NNW winds will continue through Saturday afternoon driven
by continued CAA and a deepening frontal inversion. Unidirectional
northerly low level flow will assist keeping gusty winds going as
well. Cigs rise into VFR Saturday afternoon, before scattering by
early Saturday evening with wind speeds diminishing as well.

05/

&&

.UPDATE...
Went ahead and canceled NW counties NW of the DFW Metro as the
best upper level forcing is shifting east-southeast of this region
as of 11 pm, despite significant mid level lapse rates and MUCAPE
persisting across this region. There are counties behind the cold
front that I have continued in the tornado watch, as elevated
severe storms with hail still linger across some of these counties
along and north of I-20/I-30 corridors. Though the tornado threat
is low obviously behind the cold front, we do not want to send
the wrong message that the severe weather threat as a whole is
over with large hail between 1-2" in diameter still falling out of
these storms along/behind the cold front.

05/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 PM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017/
This afternoon through tonight, we continue to await convective
initiation in the area, but new data suggests the initiation may
be later than previously thought. Data from the FWD 20Z sounding
is arriving now, and it indicates a strong cap remains in place
around the 770 mb level. Water vapor satellite also shows a
stronger EML moving into our western counties. Based on this data,
we still think storms will develop along the front, but
initiation may be a few hours later than we previously thought
when better upper level support crosses the Plains. The best upper
level support will still be north of our area and the Red River,
but forcing along the front, combined with WAA, should be enough
for storms to develop. Any storms that develop this afternoon may
be severe.

Based on the current location of the front, storms may not occur
in our far western or northwestern counties. It still appears the
best rain and storm chances will be generally along and north of
Interstate 20 and east of Highway 281 this evening, with a shift
east and southeast overnight. As the storms progress farther south
into Central Texas, a weakening of the convection and severe
threat is expected as the instability weakens overnight and the
line of storms becomes farther removed from the upper level
support. Any left over rain is expected to end early Saturday
morning, but will retain lower chances for rain Saturday morning
across much of the region until the 850 mb front moves through the
region.

For continued updates on convective trends this evening and
tonight, watch for short-term mesoscale updates, graphicasts,
social media posts and more from the office.

Cool and breezy weather is expected on Saturday in the wake of
the cold front. Lows on Sunday morning will be the coolest we
have had in about 2 weeks with temperatures in the 40s. Dry
weather will occur Sunday through the early part of next week,
despite the progressive zonal weather pattern through the Plains.
Moisture will be scoured out in the wake of tonight`s front and
won`t return until Tuesday. A weaker front will move into part of
the region on Wednesday but quickly return north Wednesday night
in advance of the next strong upper level trough affecting the
region. There are discrepancies between the models on the depth,
evolution and timing of this late week system, and will keep low
rain chances in the forecast starting Thursday. It still looks
like there could be a severe weather threat with this system.

JLDunn



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    48  72  50  79  60 /   0   0   0   5   5
Waco                46  72  47  81  60 /   0   0   0   5   5
Paris               45  70  46  78  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              43  72  48  78  59 /   0   0   0   5   5
McKinney            45  71  48  80  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              49  73  51  81  62 /   0   0   0   5   5
Terrell             46  72  48  79  59 /   5   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           47  72  47  79  59 /   5   0   0   0   0
Temple              47  73  48  79  59 /   0   0   0   5   5
Mineral Wells       44  73  47  82  60 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

05



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