Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 191649
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1149 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
FORECAST GENERALLY ON TRACK BUT DID LOWER TEMPS A BIT...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ZONES WHERE CLOUD COVER SHOULD HOLD IN ALL
DAY AND LIMIT DIURNAL HEATING. POPS WERE ALSO REDUCED AND SHIFTED
WESTWARD...AS BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL GENERALLY BE WEST OF THE
AREA. STILL EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHWEST ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. JUST SOME WEAK/BRIEF
SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL ZONES TODAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 659 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/
/12Z TAFS/

PLENTY OF DIFFICULTY TO START THE DAY AS THE MOISTURE REMAINS RICH
UNDER 900MB THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE DFW METRO WHICH
SEEMS TO BE BOTH ON THE EDGE OF THE HIGH CLOUD CANOPY. IN ADDITION...
DFW HAS NOT SEEN QUITE THE RAINS THAT WACO AND CENTRAL TEXAS HAVE
THE PAST FEW DAYS. THROW IN THE HEAT ISLAND EFFECT AND THE CHALLENGE
WILL BE FORECASTING ANY LOWER STRATUS. WINDS ARE CALM TO LIGHT
ESE EVERYWHERE. AS FOR PRECIPITATION...925-700MB THETA-E RIDGE IS
JUST SOUTH-WEST OF WACO.

DFW AIRPORTS...
PER THE CURRENT 12Z FWD U/A RUN...MVFR CIGS SHOULD FORM AND PREVAIL
THROUGH LATE MORNING. WILL ADVERTISE BRIEF IFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH
MID MORNING WITH CLEAR SKIES NORTH OF THE CIRRUS CANOPY CREATING
SOME LOWER SATURATION. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BY MIDDAY. WILL NOT
MENTION SHRA OR TSRA WITH RELATIVELY DRIER AIRMASS ACROSS THE
METRO.

WACO...
ONGOING IFR/LIFR APPEARS LIKELY THROUGH 15Z-16Z...THEN VFR CIGS
THEREAFTER. WILL CARRY TEMPO FOR VLIFR CONDITIONS WITH PATCH FOG
THROUGH MID MORNING.

ALL SITES WILL SEE ESE WINDS 8-10 KTS BY THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING
LIGHT SE TONIGHT WITH A RETURN OF MVFR CIGS AT ALL AIRPORTS BY
DAYBREAK SATURDAY. IF HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURS NEAR WACO AGAIN TODAY...
SIMILAR IFR/LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS AND PATCHY FOG MAY BE THE CASE
AGAIN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

05/


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL FEATURE CONTINUED CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN MANY AREAS...WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE DEEPEST
MOISTURE COINCIDES WITH WEAK LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT.
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS ARE NOT EXPECTED...SO NO HEADLINES OR
WATCHES WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...VERY HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT AND SLOW MOVEMENT OF CONVECTION COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED
AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN INTO THE WEEKEND.

THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO WEST TEXAS TODAY. SOME OF THIS
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL AFFECT WESTERN PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS LATER
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND A GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL WARRANT SOME HIGHER CHANCE POPS IN THOSE AREAS
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT. THE RAIN CHANCES ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE
FROM AROUND 50 PERCENT IN THE WEST NEAR THE GREATEST DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE TO 20 PERCENT IN THE EAST WHERE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

A COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH IN THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...IS STILL FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...BUT THOSE
CHANCES APPEAR LOW GIVEN THE RELATIVELY SHALLOW FORCING FOR
ASCENT NEAR AN EXPANDING UPPER RIDGE. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL NOT BE SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER...BUT LOW LEVEL DRYING AND THE
RESULTING COOLER NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE NOTICEABLE.

DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK
AS THE UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES MOST OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY. A WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM CA/NV ON
SUNDAY INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
THIS SHORTWAVE MAY TEMPORARILY WEAKEN OR SUPPRESS THE UPPER
RIDGE SOUTHWARD...BUT THE EFFECTS OF THE WAVE WILL BE TOO FAR NORTH TO
BRING ANY RAIN CHANCES TO NORTH TEXAS. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
TO AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL OR PERHAPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY PERIOD.

09



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  88  73  91  73  92 /  20  10  30  20  20
WACO, TX              86  72  91  72  92 /  30  20  30  20  20
PARIS, TX             87  69  89  68  90 /  10  10  20  20  20
DENTON, TX            89  71  90  70  92 /  10  10  30  20  20
MCKINNEY, TX          88  70  89  68  91 /  10  10  20  20  20
DALLAS, TX            88  74  90  73  91 /  20  10  20  20  20
TERRELL, TX           88  71  90  70  91 /  10  10  20  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         88  71  91  71  92 /  20  10  20  20  20
TEMPLE, TX            84  72  89  71  91 /  30  20  40  20  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     87  71  88  69  90 /  20  30  50  30  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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