Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 111544
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1144 AM EDT THU SEP 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 417 AM EDT THU SEP 11 2014

SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY...AND WILL CONTINUE
RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH ONE MORE SHOT AT SOME SHOWERS FOR THE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY TIME FRAME. QUIETER WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1144 AM EDT THU SEP 11 2014

LAKE INDUCED DRIZZLE...NOT SURPRISINGLY...IS HANGING ON ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER...DOESN`T APPEAR WE HAD MUCH OF ANYTHING
ABOVE THE BRIDGE SO FAR. LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERING MORE TO THE NORTH
THIS AFTERNOON SO WILL SHIFT DRIZZLE MORE TOWARD THE I-75 CORRIDOR
AND POINTS WEST...WILL VERY TENTATIVELY TRY TO WIND THIS DOWN LATE
IN THE DAY BUT NO PROMISES. OTHERWISE JUST A CLOUDY/COOL/BREEZE DAY
ON TAP THOUGH GRADIENT WILL START TO RELAX LATER TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 AM EDT THU SEP 11 2014

...MUCH COOLER TODAY!...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOT MUCH. STILL DEALING WITH MARINE
ISSUES WITH GUSTY WINDS SLOW TO DIMINISH.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: LARGELY UNDER-PERFORMING
STORM (AT LEAST FOR OUR AREA) NOW RACING OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST...
HAVING JUST CROSSED THE NORTH CHANNEL HEADING INTO ONTARIO. MAIN
CORRIDOR OF LIFT/ASSOCIATED STEADIER/HEAVIER RAINS ALSO WELL TO OUR
EAST. ALL IS NOT QUIET ACROSS OUR AREA...HOWEVER...WITH RATHER
INTENSE LOW LEVEL CAA AND SYSTEM BACKSIDE MOISTURE HELPING DRIVE
CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF DRIZZLE ACROSS THE NORTH WOODS. ABOVE DRIVEN
BY RATHER GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...ADDING FURTHER CHILL TO AN ALREADY
DAMP AND DOWNRIGHT CHILLY AIR MASS. PER SATELLITE IMAGERY...PLENTY OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE YET TO BE HAD...AND WHEN SUPPLEMENTED BY SHALLOW
LAKE RESPONSE...SHOULD SET UP A RATHER CLOUDY...CHILLY...AND
SOMEWHAT DAMP DAY. PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE...SUGGESTING TOUCH
QUIETER WEATHER ARRIVES BY LATER TODAY AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT.

A DAY MUCH MORE REMINISCENT OF OCTOBER EXPECTED WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS AND TEMPERATURES THAT WILL RUN A GOOD 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL ONLY ADD TO THE FALL FEEL...COURTESY
OF LAKE CONTRIBUTION TO REMNANT SYNOPTIC MOISTURE...WITH STOUT H9
INVERSION TO TRAP SUCH. SOME MIXING EXPECTED LATE...PERHAPS ENOUGH
TO BRING A FEW PEAKS OF SUNSHINE. SOME DRIZZLE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY TARGETING UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT AREAS OF
NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. MOISTURE PROFILES CONTINUE TO THIN TONIGHT
AS FLOW BECOMES NORTHERLY AND MORE ANTICYCLONIC. STILL HAVE SOME
CONCERN FOR OVERNIGHT EXPANSION OF STRATUS AS NORTH TO NORTHEAST
FLOW IMPINGES ON THE HIGHLANDS. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WILL DO FOR
NOW...WITH SUCH SHALLOW MOISTURE PROFILES HOPEFULLY NEGATING THE
CHANCE FOR ANY LAKE INDUCED SPRINKLES.

AS MENTIONED...ONE COLD MID SEPTEMBER PERIOD INDEED...WITH HIGHS
TODAY STUCK IN THE 50S AND LOWS TONIGHT FALLING INTO THE 30S FOR
MOST AWAY FROM THE BIG WATERS. LIGHT NORTH FLOW/SOME CLOUDS SHOULD
PREVENT READINGS FROM GETTING TOO OUT OF HAND TONIGHT...PREVENTING
THE NEED FOR ANY TYPE OF FROST/FREEZE HEADLINE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM EDT THU SEP 11 2014

...COOLER THAN NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND...

IMPACTS: POSSIBLE FROST SATURDAY OVERNIGHT INTO DAYBREAK SUNDAY
MORNING.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN/EVOLUTION

SHORTWAVE ENERGY WORKS INTO NRN MICHIGAN FRIDAY...WITHIN BROAD UPPER
TROUGHING SETTLING INTO THE NRN TIER OF THE COUNTRY. AFTER A PERIOD
OF RIDGING SATURDAY AFTER THE PASSIVE WAVE...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...AND ESTABLISHES MORE PERSISTENT AND BROAD UPPER TROUGHING
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NE CONUS. THIS LASTS ALL THE WAY THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...WHILE RIDGING REESTABLISHES
ITSELF ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS:

LIGHT RAIN SHOWER AND WATERSPOUT POTENTIAL FRIDAY NIGHT...CLOUD
TRENDS IN LOW LEVEL COLD POOL AND DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
SATURDAY. POTENTIAL FROST IN VERY CHILLY TEMPERATURES LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

FRIDAY:

NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE FORECAST. AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE ENERGY
WITHIN BROAD TROUGHING WORKS ITS WAY INTO NRN MICHIGAN FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. MID AND HIGH CLOUD THICKENING THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY
AS THIS WAVE RIDES OVER THE TOP OF INVADING SFC HIGH PRESSURE. THE
LOW LEVELS HAVE A HARD TIME SATURATING IN THIS PATTERN...AND FCST
BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE ON TOP OF IT. THERE ISN`T REALLY A SFC
REFLECTION...BUT WE DO GET SOME INVERTED SFC TROUGHING...AS THE
PARENT WAVE BECOMES MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS
RESULTS IN STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER FORCING...AND WITH RELATIVELY
DRY LOW LAYERS...IT`S MORE AND MORE LIKELY FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
SOME OF THESE SHOWERS COULD BECOME CONVECTIVE OVER THE WARM WATERS
OF THE GREAT LAKES...AND WATERSPOUTS BECOME A CONCERN. CONFIDENCE IS
GROWING WITH SEEING THE RAIN. MUCH OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN IS THE
FOCUS LOCATION FOR THIS RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALSO BE QUITE
THE CHILLY RAIN...AS TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AND WITH
SOME LEVEL OF EVAPORATIVE COOLING FOR SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPERATURES.
BOTTOM LINE...NOT THE GREATEST OF NIGHTS FOR FOOTBALL GAMES.

SATURDAY:

MAYBE SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAINS ON THE TAIL END OF DEPARTING DEEPER
MOISTURE...AND MAYBE EVEN SOME CLEARING SKIES. THAT CLEARING LIKELY
WON`T LAST LONG...WITH DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION THROUGH THE
DAY IN UPPER RIDGING. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH TRAPPED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE THERE IS...A LAYER OF STRATOCU IS LIKELY. THIS PATTERN
LOOKS LIKE A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY WILL BE MORE COMMON...ESPECIALLY IN A
LOW MIXING/LIGHT WIND SCENARIO. THIS MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY COULD LINGER
INTO A GOOD CHUNK OF SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH AN OVERALL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...WILL GO PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPS IN
MANY LOW LYING AREAS EXPECTED TO BE DOWN INTO THE MIDDLE 30S FOR
SOME AREAS OF FROST INTO DAYBREAK SUNDAY. BE PREPARED TO COVER
SENSITIVE PLANTS/VEGETATION.

SUNDAY/MONDAY/TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY:

SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIEST AIR DEPART SUNDAY...AND THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ARRIVES THROUGH MONDAY. FORCING NOT EXPECTED TO BE
AS STRONG...BUT A CHANCE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
STILL LOOKS POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE TO SETTLE BACK INTO NRN MICHIGAN
MON-WED WITH NO PRECIP...AS THE MAIN CHANNEL OF MID LEVEL
FLOW/ENERGY WILL BE JUST NORTH OF US. TEMPS SNEAKING INTO THE LOWER
60S MONDAY AND MAYBE INTO THE MIDDLE 60S BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 652 AM EDT THU SEP 11 2014

...MVFR AND BLUSTERY...

LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NE THROUGH QUEBEC IS BLOWING SUCH COLD AIR
INTO NRN MICHIGAN. WIDESPREAD DRIZZLE WAS FOCUSING IN ON THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH MORE PATCHY/AREAS OF DRIZZLE AT THE AIRPORTS.
THIS TO CONTINUE THRO9UGH MAINLY JUST THE MORNING...WITH MVFR CIGS
AND VSBYS. VSBY RESTRICTIONS BEFORE THE CIGS AS WINDS INCREASE AND
CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN DRIER NEAR SFC AIR. CIGS LIKELY NOT LIFTING
TO VFR UNTIL INTO THE AFTERNOON...AND MAYBE NOT AT ALL AT APN/MBL.
BKN SKIES THROUGH THE NIGHT IS THE PREVAILING AT ALL BUT PLN AND
POSSIBLY COMING BACK DOWN TO MVFR FROM TIME TO TIME.

NW TO N WINDS WILL BE BRISK/GUSTY TODAY....BUT GUSTS DIMINISHING
THROUGH THE DAY AND NIGHT WITH APPROACHING HIGHER PRESSURE.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 417 AM EDT THU SEP 11 2014

MARINE: STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND GOOD OVER-WATER INSTABILITY
WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO GUSTY NORTHWEST-NORTH WINDS ACROSS THE
WATERS TODAY. PEAK WINDS EXPECTED THIS MORNING BEFORE SLOWLY
SUBSIDING THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. GALES HAVE VERIFIED
FOR MOST...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THIS MORNING IN
FAVORED COASTAL CONVERGENCE CORRIDOR ALONG THE NORTHEAST LOWER
COASTLINE....AS WELL ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN.
SCA/S WILL BE NEEDED IN THESE AREAS LATER...TO GO ALONG WITH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NEARSHORE ZONES. WILL LET GALES RUN THEIR COURSE
THIS MORNING BEFORE EXTENDING/REPLACING SCA/S. SHOULD BE MOSTLY
HEADLINE FREE HEADING INTO TONIGHT...WITH MAINLY LIGHT NORTHERLY
WINDS CONTINUING INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LHZ345-
     346.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LHZ347>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ341.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ321-
     322.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JPB
SYNOPSIS...MSB
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...SMD
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...MSB





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