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000
FXUS63 KAPX 152326
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
726 PM EDT WED MAY 15 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 PM EDT WED MAY 15 2013

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING NORTHERN MICHIGAN
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES EACH DAY...WHILE ALSO
DELIVERING CLEAR AND CHILLY NIGHTS. OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL
WAIT UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS LOW PRESSURE TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE
WESTERN LAKES.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 725 PM EDT WED MAY 15 2013

SKC REMAINS THE RULE ACROSS OUR ENTIRE CWA THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION. ONLY A FEW
MID/HIGH CLOUD ARE DRIFTING OVERHEAD...AS TEMPS HOLD MAINLY IN THE
LOW 70S. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH SUNSET THIS
EVENING...AS TEMPS FALL THRU THE 60S AND INTO THE 50S...ON THEIR
WAY DOWN TO OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S. FORECAST IS LOOKING GOOD...
NO ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM EDT WED MAY 15 2013

GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHWOODS TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
THIS EVENING...AND ASIDE FROM SOME PATCHES OF MID CLOUDS OVER SRN
PARTS OF FORECAST AREA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...SKIES WILL
BE MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE EVENING.

MODELS THEN DEPICT A SECONDARY WEAK TROUGH/FRONT THAT WILL DROP
SEWD THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN ROUGHLY 06-12Z. THIS (CURRENTLY
UPSTREAM) FEATURE HAS SERVED AS A FOCAL POINT FOR SCATTERED
DIURNAL CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON OVER NRN MN. BY THE TIME TROUGH
REACHES NRN MI...EXPECT ONLY SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY BETWEEN ROUGHLY 04-14Z.

TROUGH WILL PASS SE OF FORECAST AREA BY LATE MORNING...WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ANTICIPATED THEREAFTER AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
NOSES INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT LIMITED CU
DEVELOPMENT IN SPITE OF UPSTREAM CU THIS AFTERNOON.

WARM TEMPERATURES...LOWER RH/S...AND GUSTY NW WINDS WILL AGAIN
SUPPORT HIGHER FIRE DANGER ON THURSDAY /SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION
BELOW/.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM EDT WED MAY 15 2013

PROGRESSIVE FOUR WAVE HEMISPHERIC PATTERN IN THE MEDIUM RANGE WITH
LOWER AMPLITUDE FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS INTO THE EARLY
WEEKEND.  OVERALL...GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH
DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.  ONE FLY IN THE
OINTMENT WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH INTERACTION
OF WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY EARLY IN THE
WEEKEND.  THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS UPPER TROUGH SLIDES INTO THE PLAINS WITH LOWERING HEIGHTS
AND EVENTUALLY PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

QUIET WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE
AREA.  DESPITE HUDSON BAY RIDGE AND CONTINUED RELATIVELY DRY
NORTHEAST FLOW...WEAK GRADIENT AND EVENTUALLY SOMEWHAT HIGHER SFC
DWPTS WITH RETURN FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING HIGH WILL KEEP FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS SOMEWHAT IN CHECK.  MAY SEE ANOTHER MARGINAL
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER DAY ON FRIDAY...WITH RH VALUES IN THE MID
20S...HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S...AND SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 15
MPH.  SHORTWAVE ENERGY TOPPING PLAINS RIDGE WILL SLIDE TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...INTERACTING
WITH STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHERN LAKES.  GIVEN
RECENT LARGE MODEL ERRORS IN THE HANDLING OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
AMBIENT DRY AIRMASS WITH CONTINUED DRY SOUTHEAST FLOW...WILL GREATLY
DISCOUNT BOTH THE GFS/NAM QPF AND TREND THE FORECAST TOWARD THE MUCH
DRIER GEM/ECMWF SOLUTIONS.  MODERATING HIGHS INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH
READINGS WELL INTO THE 70S BY SUNDAY.  DRY AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO
LARGE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SWINGS EACH DAY...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 40S.  COOLEST NIGHT WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME POCKETS
OF FROST IN THE COOLER LOCATIONS.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND A BIT SLOWER WITH OVERALL
PATTERN BREAKDOWN WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING SLOW TO DEPART ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES.  RETURN FLOW WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN THRU THIS PERIOD
WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY GRADUALLY WASHING OUT AS IT SLIDES TOWARD
THE WESTERN LAKES.  THIS PATTERN WOULD PLACE A WARM FRONT SOMEWHERE
IN THE VICINITY OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN...ALTHOUGH THE EXACT DETAILS
REMAIN MURKY.  FORECAST WILL SHOW GRADUALLY INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS EARLY NEXT WEEK...UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY.  GIVEN RECENT MODEL TRENDS...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF FORECAST ENDS UP DRIER EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH SLOWER
PROGRESSION OF WESTERN TROUGH.  TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S THRU TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 725 PM EDT WED MAY 15 2013

VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THE RULE FOR ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF
SITES THRU THURSDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR GRADUALLY
BUILD EAST THRU THE GREAT LAKES REGION. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL
WEAKEN TO BELOW 10 KTS AFTER SUNSET...AND WILL SHIFT TO THE N/NW
THURSDAY MORNING...WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS EXPECTED THRU
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 311 PM EDT WED MAY 15 2013

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL EXTEND INTO THIS EVENING FOR SOME NRN
AND ERN AREAS...WHERE NW WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST TO AROUND 25 KTS. WINDS
AND WAVES WILL SUBSIDE BY LATE EVENING. AFTER A WEAK TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH THE REGION AROUND 12Z THURSDAY...WINDS WILL BE NW AND
LIKELY REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR MOST AREAS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 311 PM EDT WED MAY 15 2013

ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS
ERN PARTS OF NRN LOWER MI. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER ABOUT
22Z THIS EVENING. AS TEMPS RISE INTO THE 60S TO MID 70S ON
THURSDAY...FIRE DANGER WILL AGAIN ELEVATE (VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY).
MIN RH/S MAY BE SLIGHTLY LOWER -- FALLING TO AROUND 25 PCT.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ345>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ341-342.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MR
SYNOPSIS...KB
SHORT TERM...BS
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...MR
FIRE WEATHER...BS
MARINE...BS