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000
FXUS63 KAPX 122313
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
713 PM EDT WED MAR 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT WED MAR 12 2014

THE SEE SAW WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEAR FUTURE...WITH
NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...QUIET BUT COOL CONDITIONS FOR
THURSDAY...AND WARMER WEATHER ON TAP FOR FRIDAY. THAT SAID...ANOTHER
ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL PUSH INTO THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING
SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND A RETURN OF COLD AIR FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 713 PM EDT WED MAR 12 2014

SKC CONTINUES ACROSS OUR ENTIRE CWA THIS EVENING AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO MICHIGAN. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR ALL NIGHT
AND WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TO LIGHT/VARIABLE...ALLOWING TEMPS
TO PLUMMET INTO THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS OVERNIGHT. NO
CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT WED MAR 12 2014

OHIO VALLEY WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE RAPIDLY OFF TO THE
EAST...ALLOWING EXPANSIVE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE
NORTHERN LAKES. DRYING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HIGH IS AGGRESSIVE...
WITH SHARP CLEARING STEADILY BUILDING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. DESPITE
THE SUN...EXCEPTIONALLY COLD AIR MASS ALSO FILTERING SOUTH...WITH
CURRENT READINGS A GOOD 20 OR SO DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THIS SETS THE
STAGE FOR A RECORD/NEAR RECORD SETTING COLD NIGHT. SOLE FORECAST
CHALLENGE CENTERS ON JUST HOW COLD TO GO TONIGHT.

OTHER THAN FEW LAKES CLOUDS STREAMING OFF THE OPEN WATER POCKETS OF
LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED RIGHT
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. UPSTREAM ONTARIO LOWS THIS MORNING IN THE
NEGATIVE 20S/LOWER NEGATIVE 30S GIVES PLENTY OF INDICATION ON JUST
HOW COLD THIS AIR MASS IS. JUST HOW COLD WE GET BECOMES A WIND SPEED
QUESTION. CENTER OF UPSTREAM RIDGE AXIS TAKES ITS TIME CROSSING OUR
AREA...TAKING TILL MORNING TO CENTER ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.
1000MB GEOSTROPHIC WIND SPEEDS SHOW THIS WELL...WITH AOB 10 TO 15
KNOTS WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS SPEED IS
OFTEN A GREAT APPROXIMATION FOR FULL DECOUPLING. USING SUCH...EXPECT
SURFACE WINDS TO GO CALM WEST OF INTERSTATE 75 AFTER MIDNIGHT...
WAITING TILL NEAR MORNING FOR NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS SETS UP
THE RATHER UNUSUAL OCCURRENCE OF THE COLDEST READINGS ALONG AND WEST
OF INTERSTATE 75...WHERE TEMPERATURES REACHING THE TEENS BELOW ZERO
ARE EXPECTED BY MORNING. COLD ELSEWHERE...BUT NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS
SHOULD SUFFICE FOR AREAS CLOSER TO THE LAKE HURON COAST. IF ABOVE
COLD IS REALIZED...DEFINITELY A FEW RECORDS WILL BE IN
JEOPARDY...WITH GAYLORD (-5 RECORD)/PELLSTON (-15 RECORD)/TRAVERSE
CITY (-7 RECORD) ALL HAVING A GOOD BET OF FALLING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT WED MAR 12 2014

...MODERATING TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY/COLDER AGAIN THIS
WEEKEND...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT THURSDAY
NIGHT.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: ACTIVE EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN LONG WAVE
TROUGH WITH SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ROTATING THROUGH THE MEAN
TROUGH AND SPROUTING SOME WEATHER MISCHIEF ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD
OF THE U.S.  ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY COMING OFF THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC TODAY WILL REINFORCE THE LONG WAVE TROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND
RESULT IN SOME SWINGS IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE.

990MB SURFACE LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TODAY...
WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO DRIVING A STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN BETWEEN.  RESULTANT GUSTY NORTH WINDS FILTERING
COLDER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON...AS
PHASING SHORT WAVE TROUGHS/COUPLED UPPER JET STRUCTURE HELP "GOOSE"
THE SURFACE LOW AND PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL.  WEST OF THE ONTARIO
SURFACE HIGH IS A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED WARM FRONT STRETCHING FROM
SASKATCHEWAN INTO THE DAKOTAS SEPARATING BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES
FROM ABOVE FREEZING READINGS ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS MICHIGAN EARLY
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WARM ADVECTION
DURING THE AFTERNOON.  THIS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF AN ALBERTA CLIPPER
TRACKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE WINNIPEG AND EVENTUALLY TOWARD LAKE
SUPERIOR AND PASS NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF GEORGIAN BAY DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY.  THIS WILL ALSO DROP A COLD FRONT ACROSS MICHIGAN EARLY
SATURDAY.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS (NEAR TERM): VARYING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WITH APPROACHING CLIPPER STARTING THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT.

NEAR TERM (THURSDAY/FRIDAY): BONE-CHILLING START TO THE DAY WILL
GIVE WAY TO SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AND WARM ADVECTION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS HEADS TOWARD SOUTHERN ONTARIO/LOWER
GREAT LAKES.  MID/HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE
MORNING HOURS...AND THICKEN UP LATER IN THE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO
EAST WITH PERHAPS SOME LIGHT SNOW TOWARD EVENING ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN AND PERHAPS ACROSS THE TIP OF THE MITT THURSDAY
NIGHT.  MENTIONED IN THIS SPACE YESTERDAY ABOUT LOW CLOUD/FREEZING
DRIZZLE POTENTIAL SHOWING UP IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS...AND THAT IS
STILL THERE IN CURRENT RUNS.  ALSO OBSERVATIONAL EVIDENCE OF LOW
CLOUDS ALONG THE BORDER BETWEEN THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA EAST OF
AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT.  SO WILL INTRODUCE THIS IDEA INTO THE
FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER WITH FLURRIES/FREEZING DRIZZLE AND
RISING TEMPERATURES DURING THE NIGHT.

FRIDAY WILL SEE PASSAGE OF THE ALBERTA CLIPPER ACROSS AT LEAST UPPER
MICHIGAN...SOME WOBBLE IN THE FORECAST TRACK WHICH MAKE PLACEMENT OF
BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES TRICKY.  WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE
FOR SNOW ACROSS EASTERN UPPER DURING THE MORNING...THEN BRING PRECIP
CHANCES DOWN TO AROUND M-72 DURING THE AFTERNOON THOUGH PRECIP TYPE
IS A BIT UNCERTAIN AND COULD START AS LIQUID OR A MIX (SOME OF THAT
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON SYSTEM TRACK).  SECONDARY SHORT WAVE AND COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...SO WIDESPREAD SNOW
CHANCES WITH THOSE FEATURES MOVING THROUGH.

MEDIUM RANGE (SATURDAY/SUNDAY/MONDAY): EARLY SATURDAY COLD FRONT
PASSAGE WILL LEAD TO...NO SURPRISE...COLD ADVECTION DURING THE DAY
WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO.
ARRIVAL OF DRY AIR AND EXTENT OF ICE COVER ON THE SURROUNDING GREAT
LAKES MAKE DETERMINING POTENTIAL FOR LAKE SNOW SHOWERS...PERHAPS
AROUND AND SOUTH OF GRAND TRAVERSE BAY.  ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE UPPER LAKES FOR SUNDAY...ANOTHER COLD DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE TEENS (A SOLID 20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE).  WARMER AIR THEN
BEGINS TO RETURN FOR MONDAY...PROBABLY REMAINS DRY WITH MORE CLOUDS
(SIMILAR TO TOMORROW`S FORECAST).

OUTLOOK (TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY): PROBABLE INCREASED THREAT FOR PRECIP
BUT MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON EVOLUTION OR EVEN TYPE.  SO VERY LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THE TAIL END OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 713 PM EDT WED MAR 12 2014

SOLID VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF
SITES THRU THURSDAY EVENING AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH
THRU MICHIGAN. MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES SE AND A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO
MICHIGAN. AT THIS POINT...EXPECT NRN LWR MICHIGAN WILL GENERALLY
STAY DRY THRU 00Z FRIDAY. GUSTY N/NW WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE BY LATE EVENING...AND WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE SW ON
THURSDAY WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MR
SYNOPSIS...KAB
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...JPB
AVIATION...MR