Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 161647
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1247 PM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1040 AM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017

Few changes to current forecast. A little mid/high cloudiness
possible over upper Michigan this afternoon, with some high based
cu likely developing across interior areas of northern Michigan.
Overall, lots of sunshine with widespread high temperatures in the
80s (slightly cooler lakeshores and eastern upper). Winds will be
a bit gustier than previous days as southerly return flow
increases. Otherwise, a beautiful September afternoon.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 241 AM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017

...Well above normal temperatures to continue...

High impact weather potential...None.

Pattern synopsis/forecast...Warm early fall airmass only getting
warmer with time as southerly winds strengthen with slow retreat of
surface high pressure. Pattern aloft sure supporting this increasing
warmth also, with amplified NOAM H5 regime consisting of stout
southern Great Lakes centered ridge axis downstream of even more
impressive Intermountain West centered troughing. Quasi-stationary
front marking the demarcation to the most aggressive warm anomalies
stretched out just to our north across southern Lake Superior, with
a few elevated showers tied to it. More active weather layed out
well to our west across the Upper Mississippi Valley in area of
increasing mid level support and a slowly developing cold front.

Surface features mentioned above expected to change little today,
waiting on ejection of western energy to give a more definitive
eastward push to the upstream cold front by later tonight and Sunday.

Focus for the near term continues to be on temperatures, or more
precisely, just how warm to go today.

Details: Really, not a tremendous amount of change from that which
occurred Friday. Still expecting a bit of passing high clouds across
the north (perhaps even a sprinkle or two early on this morning),
and more sunshine with a few high based shallow cu to the south.
Definitely nothing to impede those temperatures, and readings may
actually be a degree or two warmer than those observed yesterday.

As mentioned, upstream front begins to get a bit of a kick east
later tonight as slug of mid level support races across the Northern
Plains. Deep layer moisture channel tied to this front will be
thinning with time, and what is left of it is not slated to arrive
into our area until Sunday. May see some increasing high clouds as
initial stages of top-down saturation begin, but still expecting
mostly clear to partly cloudy skies overnight. Light southerly winds
will keep it very mild, with overnight lows ranging from the middle
50s to middle 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Sunday through Monday)
Issued at 241 AM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017

...Scattered showers and storm chances Sunday...

High Impact Weather Potential: Chance of thunderstorms Sunday into
Sunday evening.

Pattern Forecast: Upper level troughing is expected to continue
across the western third of the country through the forecast period.
As a result, downstream ridging will be evident across the Great
Lakes resulting in continued above normal temperatures. A cold front
associated with an area of low pressure across western Ontario is
expected to slide across northern Michigan late in the day Sunday
accompanied by scattered showers and storms.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Challenges: Primary focus through the
extended revolves around PoPs/thunder chances associated with
Sunday`s cold front, along with high temperatures pre-FROPA near
Saginaw Bay Sunday afternoon.

Deep southerly flow will continue early Sunday morning aiding to
increase temperatures to the mid-upper 70s across the majority of
the area by late morning. Narrow enhanced ribbon of moisture and
forcing are expected along and just ahead of the approaching cold
front, likely keeping the most numerous shower activity confined to
the afternoon hours associated with FROPA. Guidance continues to peg
MLCAPE values between 500-900 J/kg, plenty sufficient to continue
the mention of thunder, although the expected scattered nature of
precip should preclude everyone from getting in on the thunderstorm
activity.

Increased cloud cover and the threat for showers should keep high
temps a couple of degrees cooler than Saturday, but still the
potential for another well above normal day exists as you head
toward Saginaw Bay...last to see effects from the approaching
frontal boundary.

Precip chances wane pretty rapidly from west to east Sunday evening
into the overnight hours, although patchy fog development is
possible given the fresh rainfall and relatively saturated boundary
layer. High pressure builds into the region Monday with high
temperatures closer to normal...ranging from the mid-upper 60s north
to the mid 70s south.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 241 AM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017

High impact weather potential: Minimal.

High amplitude ridging returns to the midsection of the country by
the early to middle portion of next week with another round of above
normal temperatures expected. Confidence remains fairly low with
respect to precip chances throughout the extended period as guidance
continues to struggle with the overall pattern evolution and any
subtle waves meandering through the flow. Certainly could be
occasional showery periods, but far from set in stone at this point.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017

VFR conditions through most of the TAF period. A bit of high
based diurnal cu this afternoon and some wisps of higher clouds.
Occasionally gusty south/southwest winds. Cold front approaches
the western lakes tonight with mainly just some higher clouds
across northern Michigan. Although not in the TAFs, some marginal
LLWS possible late tonight at PLN as winds aloft increase.
Front pushes into the area on Sunday with cigs lowering through
the morning. Still primarily VFR, although some MVFR cigs possible
by midday at MBL/PLN/TVC. Mainly dry through the morning hours of
Sunday with increasing chances of showers/storms for the
afternoon. Winds shifting from southwest to west.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 241 AM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017

Pressure gradient expected to slowly ramp up today and
tonight as an organizing cold front to our west slowly approaches
the region. Southerly winds will be on the increase, and likely to
become a bit gusty at times, especially over the open waters of
northern Lake Michigan. Current trends continue to support mostly
sub-advisory wind gusts across the nearshores. Winds steadily veer
and decrease in speed later Sunday and Sunday night as the cold
front passes.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
NEAR TERM...MB
SHORT TERM...MG
LONG TERM...MG
AVIATION...JK
MARINE...MB



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