Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 130345
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1045 PM EST Fri Jan 12 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 913 PM EST Fri Jan 12 2018

Sharp upper level trough axis remains upstream of our CWA late
this evening...extending from Eastern Ontario thru Eastern Lake
Superior and Western Upper Michigan into Wisconsin. Northerly low
level flow continues across Michigan in the wake of the cold front
that pushed thru our area last night...producing weak lake effect
snow showers streaming into much of Eastern Upper and NW Lower
Michigan. Showers have been relatively light thusfar...and expect
this intensity will continue overnight with little change in low
level flow and over-lake instability. Have made some upward
adjustments to POPs for locations just west of I-75 based on
latest radar trends. Expect the Whitefish Bay area of Eastern
Upper Michigan will see an inch or two of new snow tonight...with
much of NW Lower Michigan only receiving under an inch or new
snow. Low temps overnight will drop into the single digits below
zero across Eastern Upper Michigan and into the single digits
above zero across Northern Lower Michigan.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 158 PM EST Fri Jan 12 2018

...Cold with some lake effect snow...

High Impact Weather Potential...Cold wind chills and lake effect
snow.

Primary Forecast Concerns...How low will wind chills drop and what
will snow accumulations be?

Arctic air has reestablished itself across the region after a
short hiatus. This has resulted in the return of bitterly cold
temperatures, low wind chills (single digits above and below
zero) and mainly light lake effect snow. This pattern will
continue tonight into Saturday (and beyond). Wind chill values
will continue to tumble with some spots reaching down into the
teens below zero later tonight into Saturday morning while other
spots fall into the single digits below zero. Meanwhile, mainly
light lake effect snow will continue in northerly flow favored
areas which center around Grand Traverse Bay and Whitefish Point.
Moisture tonight remains rather anemic with 850-700 mb rh
generally under 50%. A short wave dropping down through the flow
will bump up moisture into the 60 to 70% range and inversion
heights to near 5000 feet Saturday. Accumulations of an inch or
maybe two tonight and more like 1 to 3 Saturday. No headlines in
order at this time due to mainly light accumulations. Actual low
temperatures tonight ranging from a few degrees below zero eastern
upper to near 10 above GT Bay region. Highs Saturday only ranging
from the upper single digits north to the middle teens southwest.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Saturday night through Monday)
Issued at 158 PM EST Fri Jan 12 2018

High Impact Weather Potential...none.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Upper trough axis/850mb thermal across
region Saturday night. Surface high center moves through Sunday with
southwesterly low level flow developing during the day. SW flow
strengthens ahead of weak surface low that drops out of Manitoba.
The low reaches LOT/MKE area Monday morning and slowly crosses
southern MI during the day Monday. Current track takes it from GRR
to the Thumb of MI.

Primary Forecast Concerns...Southwesterly flow on Sunday will once
again have a hard time developing any significant snow in dry air
and weak flow. Snow showers will again be confined to the Lake
Michigan shoreline counties into the eastern UP. Precipitation
shield from low reaches Lake Michigan shoreline Monday morning. Low
is fairly weak and best moisture and dynamics will be well south of
our area. But looking at several hours of light snow. QPF values
forecast to be around 0.10" across the region which would translate
to 1 to 2" of snow from the storm. SSE low level flow, eventually
becoming east, should enhance snow amounts somewhat on the east side
of northern Lower and near the Straits.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 158 PM EST Fri Jan 12 2018

Temperatures will remain cold going into mid-week with highs
remaining in the teens, with signs of a late week warm up beginning
Thursday. Primary precipitation chances will come early in the
period, with a clipper moving through the area Tuesday then a brief
period of lake effect snow on Wednesday. Right now it looks like
north flow favored snowbelts will be affected. Broad high pressure
passing to our south will aid the late week warmup, as the ridge
axis is expected to pass by Thursday, and warm advection will
increase. This will help to turn off the lake effect, and bring a
rather quiet stretch of weather across northern lower heading into
the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1045 PM EST Fri Jan 12 2018

Arctic air parked over the Great Lakes region will continue to
produce light northerly flow lake effect snow showers overnight
thru Saturday. Locations targeted for these snow showers will
remain along the Lake Michigan shoreline around TVC and MBL.
Conditions will drop to MVFR/possibly IFR within some of these
snow showers. Northerly winds gusting to 15 to 25 kts will
gradually diminish thru Saturday as the strong high pressure
center begins to build into the Western Great Lakes region.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 158 PM EST Fri Jan 12 2018

Gusty northerly winds through Saturday morning. Winds will
then gradually decrease Saturday afternoon while backing a little
more to the NW as cold high pressure over the Dakotas slowly
builds east. Lake effect snow showers will continue.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 11 AM EST Saturday for LMZ323-342-
     344>346.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MR
NEAR TERM...AS
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...AM
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...AS



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