Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 221625
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1125 AM EST THU JAN 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1125 AM EST THU JAN 22 2015

14Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A TROUGH/COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM
NORTHWEST QUEBEC INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA...SECONDARY TROUGH AXIS
LIES ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.  SHORT WAVE TROUGH/ELONGATED
POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY EXTENDS FROM JAMES BAY SOUTHWEST ACROSS
UPPER MICHIGAN/NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND BACK INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...WITH STRONGER DYNAMICS TO THE NORTHEAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
COUPLE AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...AREA OF FLURRIES/FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER LOOKS
TO BE PRIMARILY TIED TO FORCING WITH THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH DESPITE
THE ABOVE MENTIONED SHORT WAVE TROUGH.  12Z APX SOUNDING SHOWS TWO
LAYERS OF MOISTURE...ONE CENTERED AROUND 700MB AND LIKELY ASSOCIATED
WITH UPPER LEVEL FORCING...THE OTHER BELOW 840MB WITH TOP OF THE
MOIST LAYER AROUND -11C THOUGH WITH A DECENT DEPTH OF MOISTURE ABOVE
-10C SUPPORTING SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE.  SECOND AREA OF SNOW ACROSS
UPPER MICHIGAN MORE LIKELY FORCED BY PASSING SHORT WAVE TROUGH PER
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.  ALSO SOME LAKE CONVECTION EVIDENT ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR.

FOR THE AFTERNOON...CLOUDS SHOULD PERSIST FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS INTO EASTERN UPPER AND FLURRIES
OVER NORTHERN LOWER.  SOME BREAKS FOR SUN PROBABLE ACROSS NORTHWEST
LOWER LATER.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EST THU JAN 22 2015

...PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES TODAY...

ON THE CURRENT SURFACE WEATHER MAP...NORTHERN MICHIGAN IS SQUEEZED
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND WEAK
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO. APX AND SURROUNDING RADARS
SHOWED A FEW VERY LIGHT RETURNS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND ACROSS
NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS MAY (PERHAPS) BE A FEW FLURRIES. THE
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE SEEMINGLY NEVER ENDING CLOUD COVER
ISSUE (AS WELL AS WHETHER OR NOT WE CAN GENERATE ANY LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS).

TODAY...COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING DOWN TO BETWEEN -10 C AND
-12 C...YIELDING MARGINAL LAKE/850 MB DELTA TS FOR LAKE EFFECT.
MEANWHILE...850/700 MB RH IS DROPPING FROM NEAR 80 PERCENT EARLY
THIS MORNING TO BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT BY 18Z. SO THE QUESTION
REMAINS...WILL THERE BE ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS? AM NOT TOO
EXCITED ABOUT THE PROSPECTS ACTUALLY DUE TO THE MARGINAL NATURE OF
THE AIRMASS (COLD-WISE) PLUS THE FACT THAT IT IS DRYING OUT (NOT
TO MENTION INCREASING ICE COVERAGE ON THE LAKES). AS A COMPROMISE
WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR SCATTERED FLURRIES AND SEE HOW THINGS
PLAY OUT. MEANWHILE...THAT LEAVES THE OLD CLOUD ISSUE WHICH REALLY
BURNED ME YESTERDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND CROSS SECTIONS ONCE AGAIN
PAINT A CLOUD FILLED DAY. THUS FAR EARLY THIS MORNING...THIS HAS
NOT TOTALLY BEEN THE CASE WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATING CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ZONES. OVERALL...BELIEVE THAT THE MARGINAL
OVER LAKE INSTABILITY WILL AT LEAST BE ABLE TO GENERATE A MORE
WIDESPREAD STRATO CU DECK. HOWEVER...AM EXPECTING AT LEAST PARTIAL
CLEARING ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO A BIT OF
DOWNSLOPING AND THE FACT THAT THEY ARE FARTHER AWAY FROM THE
INFLUENCE OF THE AFFECTS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. HIGHS TODAY GENERALLY
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S.

TONIGHT...SOUTHWEST FLOW/WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES WHICH
DECREASING OVER LAKE INSTABILITY. IN ADDITION...MOISTURE FROM AN
UPSTREAM CLIPPER WHICH WILL MOVE BY WELL TO OUR NORTH FRIDAY
INCREASES LATE. IN THE MEANTIME...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
CLEARING SKIES THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT OUT AHEAD OF FRIDAY`S
SYSTEM (ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST ZONES). LOW TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN THE EVENING...RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE TEENS
NORTHEAST TO THE MIDDLE 20S NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE BEFORE
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AND STEADY OFF OR EVEN LEAD TO RISING
TEMPERATURES LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EST THU JAN 22 2015

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVES STILL LOOKING
TO SWING THROUGH ONTARIO DRIVING A FAIRLY DEEP SFC LOW (<1000 MB)
ACROSS NRN ONTARIO. BETTER FORCING AND MAIN BATCH OF PRECIP WITH
THIS SYSTEM ALSO MOVES ACROSS ONTARIO ALTHOUGH TAIL END OF
ASSOCIATED UPPER JET STREAK WILL BE PASSING ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND MAY BRING A THIN CORRIDOR OF LIGHT
PRECIP DOWN THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN. NOT SO IMPRESSIVE...AND GOING
FORECAST OF CHANCY POPS LOOKS ON TRACK. BUT ONE CHANGE FROM
YESTERDAY...NOSE OF WARMER AIR GETS PULLED ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN ON
FRIDAY ON STRONG WESTERLY FLOW...BUT NOT QUITE AS WARM AS
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. ANY LIGHT PRECIP MIGHT GET A BIT MIXY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON IF SFC TEMPS WARM ENOUGH. BUT AT THIS POINT WILL GO WITH
JUST LIGHT SNOW CHANCES. BY FRIDAY NIGHT...FORCING WEAKENS AND
MOISTURE STRIPS OUT THROUGH THE EVENING WITH REMAINING LIGHT SNOW
ENDING A BIT FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH MIGHT SUPPORT A LITTLE BIT OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...SFC TROUGH/FRONT SAGS DOWN THROUGH
NRN MICHIGAN EARLY SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER WING OF COLDER AIR DESCENDING
INTO THE NRN LAKES THROUGH THE DAY AND WINDS VEERING NW. ENOUGH
LAKE INSTABILITY TO THINK LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ALTHOUGH
INCOMING AIRMASS IS ALSO FAIRLY DRY. NONETHELESS...SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE SNOW BELTS IS A FAIRLY GOOD BET DURING THE
DAY...DIMINISHING SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EST THU JAN 22 2015

OVERVIEW: NO MAJOR CHANGES ANTICIPATED IN THE OVERALL PATTERN OVER
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. LONG WAVE TROUGH PATTERN CURRENTLY ACROSS
EASTERN NOAM REMAINS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED...ALTHOUGH LONG TERM
GUIDANCE TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE IDEA OF A SLOW N/NE RETREAT
OF THE TROUGH/COLDEST AIR DEEPER INTO CANADA NEXT WEEK...AS LONG
WAVE RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST PRESSES INTO THE CONUS. BUT
OVERALL...NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO THE DOMINANT PATTERN ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING PERIODIC WAVES AND CHANCES FOR SNOW TO THE
REGION.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...STRONGEST OF THESE SYSTEMS SLIDES DOWN
THROUGH THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AND COULD BE A DECENT
PRECIP MAKER FOR PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES. OPERATIONAL EURO/GFS
SOLUTIONS LARGELY TRACK THIS SYSTEM/HEAVIER PRECIP DOWN THROUGH
THE LOWER LAKES AND JUST SOUTH OF THIS CWA...ALTHOUGH GFS IS JUST
A TAD FURTHER NORTH AND SKIRTS THE S/SW COUNTIES WITH POSSIBLY AN
INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ON SUNDAY. EURO SOLUTIONS PRETTY MUCH MISS US
ALTOGETHER. INHERITED FORECAST PAINTS CHANCY POPS ACROSS THE S/SW
HALF OF THE CWA AS WELL AS PARTS OF LAKE HURON (EASTERLY LAKE
ENHANCEMENT) AND LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...WHICH IS FINE FOR NOW.
WILL CERTAINLY KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM...BUT I DON/T THINK IT/S
A HIGH IMPACT WEATHER MAKER EITHER WAY WITH A FEW INCHES OF SNOW
THE WORST CASE SCENARIO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM EST THU JAN 22 2015

EXTENSIVE MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING BUT MAY THIN OUT THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT APN AS
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS MAY HELP TO THIN OUT THE CLOUDS A BIT.
STRATUS MAY RETURN/THICKEN AGAIN TONIGHT WITH WESTERLY FLOW OFF
LAKE MICHIGAN. BUT INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW OFF THE SFC WILL
RESULT IN LLWS CONDITIONS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPB
NEAR TERM...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...ADAM
AVIATION...ADAM



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