Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 261430
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1030 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1029 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

PRETTY MUCH UNRELENTING SUNSHINE OUT THERE THIS MORNING. A FEW
THIN PATCHES OF CIRRUS ARE SEEN OVERHEAD. IN ADDITION...WESTERN
CHIP/MACK COUNTIES HAVE THE BEGINNINGS OF SOME CUMULUS...THANKS TO
HIGHER DEW POINTS (MID 60S VS LOW 60S TO UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE).
TEMPS ARE RACING UP THRU THE 70S.

AN 83/63 SURFACE PARCEL IN EASTERN UPPER MI MANAGES SOME 1500J/KG
OF MLCAPE. WIND FIELDS/SHEAR ARE QUITE WEAK (WINDS ARE 25KT OR
LESS UP THRU 300MB). BUT LAKE BREEZES WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO GET
PAST A CIN OF LESS THAT 10J/KG. AN ISOLATED RISK FOR PRECIP STILL
LOOKS REASONABLE IN THE INTERIOR OF EASTERN UPPER. BUT WILL ADD
THUNDER...AND PUSH THE RISK A BIT LATER IN DAY (BETWEEN 3PM AND
10PM).

MAX TEMPS WERE NUDGED VERY SLIGHTLY HIGHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS PARKED OVER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING...
RESULTING IN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS. JUST A FEW CIRRUS
ARE DRIFTING OVERHEAD...AND SOME PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER
MAINLY SRN SECTIONS OF OUR CWA. TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 50S
AND LOWER 60S.

HIGH PRESSURE...SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR WILL REMAIN LOCKED OVER OUR
STATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. WEAK SYNOPTIC LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL LEND TO
LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY CHANCE FOR PRECIP TO
SPEAK OF WILL BE ACROSS INLAND AREAS OF ERN UPR MICHIGAN WHERE
OPPOSING LAKE BREEZES WILL PROVIDE THE NEEDED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
TO KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT A DRY WX...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...WINDS UNDER 10 KTS AND
WARMING TEMPS TODAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL WARM WELL INTO THE 80S...
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. ENJOY!

&&

.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

(7/27)MONDAY...THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE ODD MODEL OUT WITH
PRINTING OUT PRECIPITATION WHILE THE ECMWF AND NAM INSIST ON IT
BEING DRY. CONSIDERING THE MOISTURE PROFILE FROM THE GFS SOUNDINGS,
IT`S LOOKING LIKE THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY AND THE MODEL IS
PRODUCING PRECIPITATION OUT OF THAT. HOWEVER, IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS
ENOUGH CAPPING AND WITH NO FORCING THINK THAT THE DRY FORECAST IS
THE WAY TO GO. OVERNIGHT LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY ON ALL THE MODELS AS
THE 500 MB RIDGING LOOKS TO KEEP THE RAIN AT BAY WEST OF THE STATE.

THE DRYNESS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AND WARM
TEMPERATURES AS THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO AROUND 20C WHICH
WOULD MIX OUT TO THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. WE HAVE 90 IN THE FORECAST
FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF M-72. LOOKING AT THE ANALOGS, IT LOOKS
LIKE THERE THAT THE UPPER 80S IS GOOD.

(7/28)TUESDAY...IT LOOKS DRY DURING THE DAY TIME, BUT THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE THE MOISTURE INCREASE FROM THE RETURN FLOW THAT SOMETHING MAY
HAPPEN, BUT THE MAIN ACTION STILL LOOKS LIKE AT NIGHT WITH THE ONSET
OF THE COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. BOTH THE GFS
AND THE ECMWF BIFURCATE THE BEST PRECIPITATION, SENDING IT NORTH AND
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SO WILL SEE HOW THIS REACTS.

AGAIN THE TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY LOOK WARM WITH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO RUN BETWEEN THE MID 80S AND THE LOWER 90S. DEPENDING ON
THE CLOUD COVER, IT MAY BE A TOUCH COOLER THAN MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THE
850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE ABOUT THE SAME. THE ANALOGS HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE NEAR M-55 AND SOUTH FOR BETTER THAN 85 DEGREES. THE NUMBERS
NOW PEG MONDAY AS THE WARMEST OF THE NEXT 3 DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

EXTENDED (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...WE LOOK TO BE GOING INTO A
COOLER PERIOD WITH THE ANALOGS STARTING ON WEDNESDAY POINTING TO A
SLOW DECENT INTO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND AROUND NORMAL
PRECIPITATION INTO AND THROUGH THE NEXT WEEKEND. HERE ARE THE
DETAILS OF THE FORECAST...A PRETTY DECENT COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA, AND COOLS THINGS DOWN AS THE 12Z 850 MB
TEMPERATURES FALL FROM 20C TO 00Z TO AROUND 15C. BY 12Z THURSDAY,
THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 9C. FRIDAY, A WEAK WARM FRONT
AND 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA, AND
BRING MAINLY SHOWERS, BUT THUNDER CAN`T BE RULED OUT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE UP A BIT, AT LEAST CLOSER TO NORMAL. SATURDAY, THE LOOKS
LIKE INITIALLY WILL CONTINUE DRY WITH THE THREAT FOR SOMETHING LATE
AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 650 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

ASIDE FROM SOME PATCHY SHALLOW IFR FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...
OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR AT ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF
SITES THRU MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS PARKED OVERHEAD.
LIGHT/CALM WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL LEND TO LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT ON SUNDAY...WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT/CALM AGAIN AFTER
SUNSET.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 252 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THRU MONDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER MICHIGAN. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD...WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
NEAR TERM...MLR
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...MLR



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