Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 310134
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
934 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 934 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

CORRIDOR OF POST-FRONTAL...UPPER JET FORCED RAINFALL MAKING STEADY
EASTWARD PROGRESS OUT OF THE CWA THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH LIGHT
RAIN CONTINUES TO PLAGUE AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
HARRISVILLE TO NEAR HOUGHTON LAKE. IF CURRENT RADAR TIMING HOLDS
TRUE...RAIN SHOULD EXIT OUR FAR E/SE COUNTIES SHORT AFTER 03Z.
WILL SEE HOW THAT GOES. BEHIND THE RAINFALL...THICK MID AND HIGH
CLOUD COVER REMAINS BACK ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. BUT BACK EDGE OF
THAT CLOUD COVER IS STARTING TO MAKE IT/S WAY ACROSS EASTERN UPPER
AND NW LOWER MICHIGAN AT THIS HOUR (HERE AT THE OFFICE...GOT TO
SEE THE LAST 15 MINUTES OF THE SUN ON THE HORIZON BEFORE SETTING).

REST OF THE NIGHT...RAIN IN THE EAST WILL END AND SKIES WILL
LARGELY CLEAR OUT ALTHOUGH SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUD COVER MAY GET STUCK
OVER THE SE COUNTIES COURTESY OF ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
RUNNING UP THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. BIGGEST CONCERN REMAINS WITH
LOW TEMPS. ALTHOUGH SKIES WILL LARGELY CLEAR OUT...FORECAST
1000MB/975MB GEOSTROPHIC WINDS REMAIN 20 KNOTS OR BETTER THROUGH
THE NIGHT SUGGESTING LIMITING DECOUPLING (I.E. WE KEEP A BIT OF A
WIND GOING ALL NIGHT). THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM TANKING AND CURTAIL
ANY FROST FORMATION DESPITE TEMPS IN SOME AREAS POSSIBLY DIPPING
INTO THE MIDDLE 30S. SO...WE WILL REMAIN FROST/FREEZE HEADLINE
FREE.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOT MUCH. PATCHY FROST
POTENTIAL FOR EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: MUCH COOLER AIRMASS NOW
FULLY IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN...COURTESY OF GUSTY NORTH
WINDS BEHIND MUCH EARLIER PASSING COLD FRONT. LAGGING BEHIND OFF
THE DECK FRONTAL FEATURES...COMBINED WITH EXCELLENT RER UPPER JET
DYNAMICS...CONTINUES TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE M-72 CORRIDOR. TRENDS HAVE DEFINITELY BEEN
SOUTHWARD WITH THIS RAIN AXIS...WITH AGGRESSIVE DRYING NOTED PER
LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SPREADING STEADILY SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN AND THE TIP OF THE MITT. THIS SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION WILL
CONTINUE...WITH ALL DEEP LAYER FORCING CENTERING ITSELF ACROSS
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MERGER AND DEVELOPING OHIO VALLEY LOW PRESSURE.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: EVENING RAIN AND OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURE TRENDS.

DETAILS: AS MENTIONED...STEADY SOUTHWARD PUSH TO CURRENT RAIN AXIS
WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RATHER IMPRESSIVE (FOR THE
SEASON) SHORTWAVE TROUGH MERGER AND ATTENDANT SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
TAKES PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...
FORCING THIS RAIN SHIELD TO STALL AND INTENSIFY OVER SOUTHERN
MICHIGAN. NEARLY ALL TRENDS SUPPORT THIS OCCURRING JUST SOUTH OF OUR
SOUTHERN BORDER. WILL DEFINITELY NEED TO MONITOR...BUT HAVE
CAUTIOUSLY TAKING THIS MORE OPTIMISTIC APPROACH...ENDING ALL RAINS
OVERNIGHT. DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE MAINTAINED ALOFT...SUGGESTING
PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN RIGHT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. COMBINE THIS WITH STILL DECENT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ALLOWING LIGHT WINDS TO CONTINUE...AND JUST GOTTA
SIDE WITH THE WARMER END OF THE GUIDANCE SPECTRUM (ESSENTIALLY
IGNORING ALL STRAIGHT MOS GUIDANCE) FOR LOWS TONIGHT. THAT GIVES MID
30S/LOWER 40S FOR LOWS SOUTH OF THE BRIDGE...NEGATING ANY MENTION OF
FROST DEVELOPMENT. READINGS SHOULD BE A TOUCH CHILLER ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER...MORE SOLIDLY IN THE MIDDLE 30S. EVEN HERE...MAINTENANCE OF
LIGHT WINDS SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD FROST FORMATION AND A NEED FOR
A HEADLINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

...DRYING OUT TO START THE WEEK/COOL SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: FROST POTENTIAL EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...POSSIBLY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS WELL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: SPLIT FLOW PATTERN FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WITH BULK OF THE NORTHERN BRANCH FLOW
ACROSS CANADA...WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OVER
NORTHWEST ONTARIO AND JUST CLIPPING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.  SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH RESIDE OVER WESTERN IOWA AND
ALONG THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER.  CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
COLD FRONT ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO OKLAHOMA/TEXAS.  UNSEASONABLY STRONG
(FOR LATE MAY) 1033MB SURFACE HIGH OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA WITH A
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES TO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE.  PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING 1.50 INCHES...WITH
COOLER/DRIER AIR BEHIND THE BOUNDARY (850MB 0C ISOTHERM CREEPING
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR).

SOUTHERN BRANCH ENERGY WILL SLIDE MOSTLY SOUTH OF MICHIGAN SUNDAY...
WHILE NEW SHORT WAVE TROUGHING TAKES SHAPE OVER THE UPPER LAKES
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...SHIFTING INTO NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY.
COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...WITH A
FRONTAL WAVE SPINNING UP ALONG IT WITHIN JET ENTRANCE REGION
FORCING...KEEPING A DECENT NORTHEAST GRADIENT ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN
SUNDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE UPPER LAKES FROM THE
NORTHEAST ON MONDAY...WHILE SHORT WAVE TROUGHING GETS ORGANIZED
OVERHEAD.  HIGH PRESSURE "BUBBLE" IN PLACE FOR TUESDAY AS SHORT WAVE
ENERGY STARTS TO PULL AWAY.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: LOW TEMPERATURES/FROST POTENTIAL EARLY
MONDAY MORNING...PERHAPS AGAIN IN SPOTS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY...PRECIPITATION WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN WITHIN DEFORMATION AXIS TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONTAL WAVE
CROSSING INDIANA/OHIO.  THIS WILL BRING MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO NORTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN...THICKER CLOSER TO SAGINAW BAY BUT THAT WILL BE
ABOUT IT EXPECTING MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
AREA (COULD BE CLOSE FOR GLADWIN/ARENAC COUNTIES SO THAT IS ONE AREA
WORTH WATCHING).  WILL ALSO BE BREEZY THE FARTHER SOUTH ONE GOES...
WITH WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY.  COOL AFTERNOON
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 50S (AROUND 60 PARTS OF NORTHWEST LOWER).
SUNDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY...ESPECIALLY STARTING
THE NIGHT ON THE COOL SIDE.  LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO
DECOUPLE SUNDAY NIGHT...AND WITH DEW POINTS MIXING INTO THE UPPER
20S/LOWER 30S HAVE A GOOD BIT OF ROOM TO DROP.  COMPLICATING FACTOR
IS MID/HIGH CLOUDS DEVELOPING WITH STRENGTHENING SHORT WAVE
TROUGHING...WHICH DEPENDING ON TIMING/COVERAGE WOULD STABILIZE
TEMPERATURES.  FOR NOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TOWARD THE
FREEZING MARK ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER/NORTHERN LOWER WITH A
MENTION OF FROST BOTH IN THE FORECAST AND IN THE AFTERNOON HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

MONDAY...SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS AROUND AS DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL
VORTICITY CENTER TRACKS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...OTHERWISE SHOULD BE
ANOTHER NICE AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING INTO THE 60S
(BUT STILL 4-8F OFF EARLY JUNE NORMALS).  WINDS EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE
AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK GRADIENT IN PLACE...AND POTENTIAL FOR
TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 30S ONCE AGAIN IN SOME SPOTS.

TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT
EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER DRY DAY WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO
RECOVER (MORE 70S EXPECTED FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS).

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE MAIN PLAYER ACROSS THE REGION NEXT WEEK
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL MAKE FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED
MODERATING TEMPERATURES THOUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD...WARMING TO
ABOVE NORMAL READINGS BY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES EAST ON
THURSDAY...AS AN UNORGANIZED SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ENCROACHES ON THE GREAT LAKES. WILL BRING CHANCE POPS BACK IN FOR
THURSDAY...WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN AND POSSIBLY
THUNDER ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND SLIDES EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 733 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE UPCOMING TAF FORECAST PERIOD...

LOW CIGS HAVE CLEARED OUT OF THE TERMINAL SITES AND MOST OF NRN
LOWER MICHIGAN AT THIS JUNCTURE...LEAVING OVERCAST VFR MID AND
HIGH CLOUD DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID EVENING. THAT
CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO EXIT W-E ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN LATER
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE ANTICIPATED ON
SUNDAY.

WINDS...SOME GUSTINESS WILL LINGER THROUGH EARLY EVENING BEFORE
SUSTAINED WINDS SUBSIDE TO UNDER 10 KNOTS EVERYWHERE. WE WILL
KEEP SOME SEMBLANCE OF A N-NE WIND GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT. BUT
ANOTHER PERIOD OF GUSTINESS WILL OCCUR ON SUNDAY MONDAY INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 20 KNOTS.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT. WHILE WIND GUSTS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN/SUPERIOR...INCREASING LONG FETCH LENGTH WILL RESULT IN VERY
GUSTY WINDS TARGETING THE AREA AROUND SAGINAW BAY LATER TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. WILL HOIST SCA/S FOR THIS AREA...LETTING OTHERS EXPIRE AS
PLANNED. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY...PERHAPS
REQUIRING A NORTHWARD EXTENSION OF THE LAKE HURON SCA.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LHZ349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ345-346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ADAM
NEAR TERM...MSB
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...BERGER/DE
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...MSB


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