Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 121743
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1243 PM EST Mon Feb 12 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1131 AM EST Mon Feb 12 2018

The LES in NW lower is looking to begin to diminish as the drier
air moves into the region, but as we have seen before, the LES can
remain. The ice on N Lake Michigan has been slowly encroaching on
the middle of the lake as the satellite images have show that the
LES bands are developing in the middle of the lake.

The winds are beginning to turn in E Upper, so that the LES is
will begin to diminish there as well.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 309 AM EST Mon Feb 12 2018

...Some light lake effect snow today...

High Impact Weather Potential...None.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Arctic front is poised over our NW CWA
early this morning...extending from low pressure just east of James
Bay thru the Straits and SE Wisconsin into the Central Plains.
Strong arctic high pressure is centered north of Montana and the
Dakotas...with strong surface ridging and very cold air extending
thru the Northern Plains. Low level convergence along the cold front
combined with over-lake instability and some enhanced moisture along
the front continues to produce lake snow showers across portions of
Chippewa county. A few light lake effect snow showers have also
developed across portions of NW and North Central Lower Michigan
early this morning despite a rather dry airmass overhead.

As we head into today...the arctic cold front will slide thru our
CWA this morning. Upstream arctic high will begin to build into our
region in its wake this afternoon. Some light NW flow lake effect
snow shower activity will continue today...but will gradually
diminish throughout the day as subsidence and even drier air move
into the region. Any additional snow accumulation across far NW
Chippewa county will be relatively minor (an inch or two) before
coming to an end later this afternoon. This reinforcing shot of cold
air will hold temps in the teens to around 20 degrees thru today.

Arctic high center builds overhead this evening and then slides just
east of Michigan overnight. A very cold night is in store for our
area with this very cold airmass overhead. Skies will become mostly
clear this evening...but we will see some increase in mid clouds
overnight as the eastern edge of an upstream warm front begins to
lift into the area on the backside of the surface high center.
However...this small increase in mid clouds should not greatly limit
the potential for good radiational cooling tonight. Overnight lows
will drop into the single digits above and below zero...with wind
chills dropping to 10 to 15 below zero. Stay warm folks!

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tuesday through Wednesday)
Issued at 309 AM EST Mon Feb 12 2018

...Moderating temperatures...

Primary Forecast Concern...How mild will it get Wednesday.

Strong surface high pressure (1045 mb) edges off to the east. A
progressively milder southwest flow and associated warm air
advection then develops in its wake. The only other feature of note
is a weak short wave which grazes eastern upper Tuesday yielding
small chances for snow showers up that way. Otherwise, precipitation
free conditions are expected. Brisk southerly winds Tuesday with
wind chills starting out in the single digits/teens below zero but
temperatures are expected to modify through the day with highs in
the middle 20s to around 30. Temperatures Tuesday night are not
expected to fall much with continued brisk southerly winds. Lows in
the upper teens to middle 20s. Temperatures Wednesday are still
expected to top the freezing mark across all areas with highs
ranging from the middle 30s to lower 40s (but continued brisk winds
will make it feel colder).

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 309 AM EST Mon Feb 12 2018

...Roller coaster ride in the temperature department...

Low pressure races by to our north later Wednesday night and an
associated cold front cuts through the region early Thursday.
Meanwhile, another area of low pressure tracks by to our south.
Looking at model soundings, moisture is rather shallow Wednesday
night so little to no rain or snow is expected to fall (perhaps some
drizzle or freezing drizzle?). Moisture then deepens later Thursday
into Thursday night leading to chances for some snow. Much colder
Friday with small chances for a few lake effect snow showers (though
moisture looks rather scant). A pair of clippers moving by to the
north will bring chances for light snow Saturday then light snow or
even light rain Sunday. Temperatures will run the gambit...falling
Thursday, colder Friday, moderating Saturday then milder again
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1232 PM EST Mon Feb 12 2018

For the next 24 hours, will expect that we will be getting VFR
cigs and vsbys at the TAF sites. There could be some MVFR cigs at
TVC and MBL as some lake effect clouds/flurries are possible, but
for the most part will expect that the skies will gradually clear
going into the evening. High pressure will build into the region
to clear the skies, before winds shift to the southwest as the
next system prepares to move into the region.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JL
NEAR TERM...MR
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...JL



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