Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 071543
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1043 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1024 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

SHORTWAVE ENERGY SLIDING ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING. LOTS
OF RADAR RETURNS INTO NORTHERN LOWER...BUT LARGE AMOUNT OF LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR RESULTING IN MAINLY VIRGA WITH POSSIBLY A FEW
SPRINKLES/FLURRIES. DEEPER MOISTURE/FORCING OVER UPPER MICHIGAN
WITH LIGHT SNOW /ESPECIALLY I-75 WESTWARD/. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF
WET SNOW ACCUMULATION OVER PARTS OF UPPER MICHIGAN TODAY. FURTHER
SOUTH...THINGS MAY MOISTEN UP SUFFICIENTLY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SOME LIGHT SNOW /MIXED WITH RAIN?/ ACROSS THE TIP OF THE MITT INTO
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BUT WITH SURFACE TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. NOT MUCH OF ANY
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN.

A VERY MILD EARLY FEBRUARY DAY WITH PARTS OF LOWER MICHIGAN
REACHING THE LOWER-MIDDLE 40S /ALREADY 40 DEGREES IN TRAVERSE
CITY AT 10 AM/.

STRATUS WILL RE-SOLIDIFY ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WILL LIKELY SEE FOG AS WELL AND HAVE SOME CONCERNS OF
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT AS MOISTURE DEPTH
EXPANDS TOWARD 3-4K WITH MINIMAL FORCING. WILL BE TAKING A CLOSER
LOOK AT THAT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

...ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN PERSISTS...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL THROUGH TONIGHT.

OVERVIEW: POTENT SHORT WAVE IS CURRENTLY DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS BRINGING RESPECTABLE HEIGHT FALLS INTO THE
MIDWEST AND ON IT/S WAY TO CARVING OUT A FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH OVER
THE WESTERN LAKES BY MONDAY. AT THE SFC...RESPECTABLE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IS ADVANCING INTO NRN MINNESOTA WITH A STATIONARY FRONT
STRETCHING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SUPERIOR AND COLD FRONT SWINGING
INTO THE MIDWEST. WARM ADVECTION AND SHORT WAVE FORCING IS
PRODUCING A BROAD AREA OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND SPREADING ACROSS THE UPPER PENINSULA. FORCING AND
RESULTING SATURATION PROFILES ARE A BIT BETTER ACROSS UPPER
MICHIGAN WHERE WE HAVE/ARE SEEING LIGHT SNOW. BUT DRY SUB 700 MB
LAYERS SOUTH OF THE BRIDGE HAS PREVENTED MUCH IN THE WAY OF
SNOWFALL FROM GETTING TO THE SURFACE...DESPITE THE OMINOUS LOOKING
RADAR PLOT.

PATTERN FORECAST: DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL GET CARVED OUT
ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...LEADING TO
ANOTHER PERIOD OF RATHER UNSETTLED WEATHER AND EVENTUALLY A
SUBSTANTIAL COOL DOWN HEADING TOWARD MIDWEEK.

TODAY...UPSTREAM SFC LOW WILL ADVANCE INTO THE WESTERN U.P. AS
DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
AS THIS OCCURS...SHORT WAVE AND WARM ADVECTION FORCING STILL LOOKING
TO REMAIN LARGELY FOCUSED ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN MAINLY NORTH OF THE
BRIDGE...AND MAINLY THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE MOVING ON TO THE EAST.
SO PLAN IS TO MAINTAIN HIGHEST POPS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...
DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT CHANCY POPS FOR SNOW DOWN
THROUGH MUCH OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING ALTHOUGH GIVEN THE
WEDGE OF DRY LOW LEVEL AIR FORECAST TO REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION...REALLY NOT EXPECTING MUCH. OTHERWISE...MAINLY CLOUDY
SKIES WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 30S AND POSSIBLY A FEW LOW
40S READINGS.

TONIGHT...SFC AND UPPER LEVEL LOW ADVANCE INTO THE STATE...NEARLY
OVERHEAD OF THE CWA BY MORNING. WE END UP LARGELY IN "NO MANS
LAND" FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH WARM ADVECTION FORCING TO OUR
N/E AND WRAP AROUND/DEFORMATION FORCING WRAPPING BACK INTO
WISCONSIN. SO I DONT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP...ALTHOUGH
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO MOISTEN UP IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND SUGGEST
WE COULD SEE A LITTLE BIT OF DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW
LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: PATTERN REALIGNMENT TALKED
ABOUT THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS IS WELL UNDERWAY...WITH NOTED HEIGHT
RISES ACROSS THE NOAM WEST COAST...AND DIGGING SHORTWAVE/DEVELOPING
TROUGH DIVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS DEVELOPING VERY
AMPLIFIED PATTERN LOOKS TO REACH MATURITY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AS TROUGHING SETTLES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR
A RATHER PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS (LAKE ENHANCED) AND A STEP-
DOWN PROCESS TO A MUCH COLDER NORTHERN LAKES WEATHER REGIME.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND SNOW
EVOLUTION THROUGH THE FORECAST.

DETAILS: DESPITE TROUGHING CENTERING ITSELF OVERHEAD THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY...MAIN FOCUS FOR ANY APPRECIABLE ASCENT REMAINS REMOVED TO
OUR EAST (WARM CONVEYOR BELT) AND TO OUR NORTH (DEFORMATION
DYNAMICS). COMBINE THIS WITH PSEUDO DRY SLOT PIVOTING OVERHEAD...AND
JUST NOT LOOKING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWS. WITH THAT SAID...DECENT
PLUME OF MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE TIED TO TROUGH AXIS...WITH H7-H5
PUSHING GREATER THAN 7C. SO DOUBT SOME CHANCE SNOW SHOWER MENTION IS
WARRANTED...GREATEST FOCUSED ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN WHERE
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN DEEPEST.

ABOVE CHANGES HEADING INTO LATER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
AS MOISTURE PROFILES DEEPEN AREA-WIDE WITH SLOW EAST PROGRESSION OF
TROUGH AXIS AND ATTENDANT SURFACE REFLECTION. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF
LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGH UP ACROSS EASTERN UPPER/STRAITS REGION DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY WILL ALSO BEGIN TO RAMP UP LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
OVERALL FORCING REMAINS MINIMAL...SO GENERALLY EXPECTING JUST
LIGHTER SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH SIMPLE
DURATION SUPPORTS SOME ACCUMULATION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SAME
CANNOT BE SAID OVER TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN...ESPECIALLY ITS SNOW BELT
ALONG AND SOUTH OF GRAND TRAVERSE BAY. GUIDANCE HAS NOT WAVERED ON A
NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND ENVIRONMENT THROUGH A SLOWLY INCREASING LAKE
INDUCED CONVECTIVE LAYER. NOW...THAT LAYER NEVER GETS PARTICULARLY
DEEP...TOPPING OUT ABOUT AT H8 BY LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
PROBLEM IS THIS LAYER BECOMES INCREASINGLY FOCUSED WITHIN THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...ALL-THE-WHILE MOISTURE PROFILES ABOVE IT
REMAIN FAIRLY SATURATED (NEGATING ANY DRY AIR INTRUSION INTO
CONVECTIVE PROCESSES AND ALLOWING SOME SEEDER-FEEDER MECHANISMS).
INTERESTINGLY...GUIDANCE DOES NOT SEEM TO THRILLED WITH QPF
AMOUNTS...POSSIBLY TIED TO THE LIMITED CONVECTIVE DEPTH. GOTTA
BELIEVE WE WILL GET A BETTER RESPONSE...AND WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO
SEE SEVERAL INCHES OF NEW SNOW IN THE FAVORED NNW FLOW REGIMES BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...MUCH COLDER STRETCH OF
WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY
DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA REINFORCES ONGOING CAA. 12Z/00Z ECMWF
EASILY THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN THIS REGARD...DROPPING H8 TEMPS TO
NEAR -30C TERRITORY BY LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY (HIGHS BELOW ZERO
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY!). OTHER DETERMINISTIC PROGS (AS
WELL AS MOST ENSEMBLES) HAVE A MORE GLANCING SCENARIO WITH THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES. EITHER WAY...ITS GONNA BE COLD (HIGHS IN THE
TEENS...OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE/BELOW
ZERO)...ALTHOUGH GOTTA BELIEVE NOT NEARLY AS COLD AS THE ECMWF WOULD
SUGGEST.

AS FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW: LAKE PROCESSES WILL DOMINATE IN SUCH A COLD
ENVIRONMENT. CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO LOOK FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THOSE NNW FLOW SNOW BELTS WEDNESDAY WITH
DEEP MOISTURE AND A FAVORABLE OVER-WATER THERMAL ENVIRONMENT.
WHILE SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST IN A SLOWLY BACKING WIND REGIME
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...LOSS OF SYNOPTIC CONTRIBUTION
AND EVENTUAL SUB- CLOUD BASE DGZ SUPPORTS LESS INTENSE SNOWFALL
RATES AND ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 643 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

...LITTLE OR NO SNOW THROUGH TONIGHT...CONDITIONS TURNING MVFR-
IFR...

VFR CONDITIONS AND LLWS ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING.
SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE THROUGH FAR NRN MICHIGAN BUT NOT
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL SITES. HOWEVER...MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE COURSE OF
THE AFTERNOON AS SLIGHTLY COOLER LOW LEVEL AIR SLIPS IN OVER TOP A
RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. EXPECT 1-2K CIGS TO DEVELOP.

TONIGHT...SFC LOW WILL SLIDE IN OVERHEAD OF THE STATE RESULTING IN
LIGHT SFC WINDS. CIGS WILL LOWER FURTHER...POSSIBLY INTO THE IFR
CATEGORY BY MORNING. BUT SUSPECT FOG/REDUCED VSBYS WILL BECOME
MORE OF AN ISSUE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 352 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAVES/GUSTS WILL PERSIST ON LAKE MICHIGAN
TODAY...BUT DIMINISH SUBSTANTIALLY TONIGHT AND THROUGH MONDAY.
CURRENT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN INTACT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT
WILL BE DROPPED FOR TONIGHT. WINDS PICK UP AGAIN OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AND ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AT THAT TIME.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-341-
     342-344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KEYSOR
NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...ADAM


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