Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 281806
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
206 PM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1119 AM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Main forecast issue with this update is the lingering low
stratocumulus across the area. The 12Z APX sounding shows an
influx of drier air from about 850mb upward, though the moist
inversion beneath has allowed these low clouds to stubbornly hang
on longer than originally expected. Latest visible imagery does
reveal some thinning between cloud bands within the last hour
(especially over northeast Lower), and expect this trend will
become more accelerated heading into midday. This should
eventually give way to a mostly sunny afternoon across the area.
Otherwise no significant changes were made to the existing
forecast.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 308 AM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017

High impact weather potential: None.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:

Early this morning, several upper troughs seen on satellite. One
working off the New England coast, another crossing the Ohio valley,
one over Hudson Bay, one drifting across the Dakotas and finally,
one working out of the srn Rockies. The srn conus waves were all
associated with showers and storms, with just some spotty light
rains/showers in North Dakota. Nrn Michigan was quiet with only some
low level clouds and patchy fog ahead of a weak sfc ridge of high
pressure over western Lake Superior and MN. Temperatures were locked
in the lower to middle 30s. There was a nice wedge of drier low
level air and mostly clear skies being fed southward from srn
Ontario in the northerly flow ahead of the weak ridge of sfc high
pressure.

Not really much in the way of weather through tonight. The low level
drier air within the northerly flow will feed down into the region,
clear out the clouds, and finally bring nrn Michigan some sunshine.
Only the weak Dakotas trough will bring some higher level clouds
along with some possible shallow cumulus. High temperatures will
range from the lower 40s in eastern upper to the upper 40s and low
50s M-72 south. Deep dry air holds through tonight, with good
radiational cooling resulting in low to middle 20s. Those colder low
lying areas making it into the teens. Also, wonder about possible
fog development. Nothing see attm upstream, but patchy fog is
certainly possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 308 AM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017

...Precipitation chances return Thursday through early Friday...

High impact weather potential: Minimal, although a bit of
accumulating snow is possible Thursday night.

Pattern Forecast: Mid-upper level ridging is expected to be evident
across the western Great Lakes by Wednesday morning with associated
Canadian surface high pressure nosing in from the north resulting in
quiet conditions, some sunshine, and near-normal temperatures. At
the same time, a large scale buckle in the jet stream is evident
across the Intermountain West, which is progged to result in
cyclogenesis lee of the Rockies ejecting toward the Great Lakes
Thursday into Friday. This is expected to provide the next threat
for sensible weather across northern Michigan before high pressure
returns once again next weekend.

Primary Forecast Concerns: Primary forecast concerns and challenges
revolve around the evolution of Thursday`s system, but not before
fairly pleasant spring-like weather is the main feature for
Wednesday. Partly to mostly sunny skies and high temperatures
ranging from near 40 north to the mid 40s south of the bridge will
be the rule.

Forecast focus quickly turns to Thursday as aforementioned
developing low pressure moves toward the Midwest/Ohio Valley late
Wednesday into Thursday. Ensemble guidance continues to result in
high confidence with respect to a storm system across the midsection
of the country, but low confidence in the details as latest trends
over the past 24 hours have shifted the storm system considerably
further south with the highest precip chances limited to along and
south of the M-32 corridor. Will continue with a middle of the road
approach at this juncture, as did the previous shift, simply due to
a lack of confidence to make wholesale forecast changes in one
direction or another. This results in increasing PoPs from southwest
to northeast across northern Lower Michigan throughout the day
Thursday, with likely PoPs confined to locations south of M-55
during the afternoon hours before spreading northeastward during the
evening and overnight. P-type issues also come into question early
Thursday morning (depending on how quick initial precip is able to
arrive) and again Thursday night, but will almost be solely based on
the depth of the near-surface warm layer, which fittingly remains in
question as a wide range of possibilities exist via the latest
forecast soundings. Gut feeling is that p-type remains primarily
rain during the day Thursday thanks to a lack of deep-layer cold air
and late March diurnal processes, perhaps bounded briefly by a few
wet snowflakes across far southwestern areas early Thursday morning
and across a larger section of northern Lower Thursday night. A
minor accumulation of an inch or two of wet snow in some spots
Thursday night seems feasible, especially as the main slug of
moisture pushes across the area. The system continues to progress
eastward early Friday morning with the majority of precip having
ended by the midday hours Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 308 AM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Thursday-Thursday night`s precip diminishes Friday morning, expected
to come to an end by the midday hours. Broad west-northwesterly flow
takes hold across the Great Lakes over the weekend with a weak wave
or two sliding across southern Canada. This may bring a period or
two of mixed precip over the weekend, more specifically Saturday
night into early Sunday; however, most of the extended period is
expected to be dry with above normal temperatures continuing. Beyond
that, signals continue to suggest a more sizable storm impacting a
portion of the upper Midwest/Great Lakes during the early to middle
portion of next week. At this point, looks like all rain with
perhaps well above normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 148 PM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Low stratocu has rapidly scoured out across northern Michigan. VFR
conditions for the rest of today with just some passing cirrus as
high pressure builds into the region. With mostly clear skies
and light winds overnight, would start to think about possibility
of some br. However, we`ll also be dealing with encroaching drier
low level air that is expected to limit fog/mist potential.
Wouldn`t entirely rule out some br, but if it does develop,
KMBL/KTVC/KPLN would have the best chance for perhaps MVFR
visibilities. Winds will remain light through the period, becoming
more northeasterly on Wednesday along with increasing cirrus.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 308 AM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Things look quiet through Thursday as sfc higher pressure noses into
the Great Lakes from Canada. Northerly winds and drier air will
clear out skies today, before the high departs and winds turn east
Wednesday into Thursday. This will be out ahead of the next low
pressure system which brings a chance of rain for Thursday. Winds
will be sub-advisory through this time period.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MEK
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...MJG
LONG TERM...MJG
AVIATION...MEK
MARINE...SMD


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