Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 011737
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
137 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1052 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

VERY MINIMAL UPDATES THIS MORNING. EARLIER BAND OF HIGHER CLOUDS
HAS DEPARTED...CURRENTLY BEING REPLACED BY DEEP DRY AIR AND
EVENTUAL SUNNY SKIES EVERYWHERE IN NRN MICHIGAN. THIS TO PLAY A
ROLE IN EVENTUAL DAYTIME MIXING OF THE SFC DEW POINT...AND THE
RESULTANT POTENTIAL FOR NOCTURNAL COOLING AND FROST THREAT.
CURRENT FROST ADVISORY ALREADY OUT...WILL TAKE A LOOK AT POSSIBLE
MODIFICATIONS AFTER PERUSING MID AFTERNOON OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

...ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT ON THE WAY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...FROST POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT.

NO BETTER WAY TO WELCOME METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER THAN WITH A SLEW OF
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES.

HIGH PRESSURE IN QUEBEC IS EXTENDING RIDGING TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR...
WHILE LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS PA. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL ANCHOR
ITSELF OVERHEAD LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. PLENTY OF LOW/MID-LEVEL DRY
AIR IN PLACE...AND THAT WON/T CHANGE ANYTIME SOON. WE DO HAVE SOME
CIRRUS TRANSITING THE REGION THIS MORNING...AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE CLIPPING BY LAKE SUPERIOR. THERE IS NO
RISK FOR PRECIP THRU TONIGHT...BUT FROST WILL RETURN AS A THREAT
TONIGHT.

TODAY...ONGOING FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES WILL BE DROPPED IN A FEW
HOURS. THERE ARE NO OTHER ISSUES OF NOTE TODAY. SHORTWAVE WILL CLOSE
OFF NORTH OF GEORGIAN BAY BY 18Z...WITH HEIGHTS STARTING TO REBOUND
ACROSS NORTHERN MI. SO CIRRUS WILL CLEAR FROM W TO E DURING THE
MORNING. SKIES WILL BE CLOUD-FREE FOR THE 2ND HALF OF THE DAY. 850MB
TEMPS REMAIN IN THE 2-5C RANGE...A TINY BIT WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.
WE WILL ALSO HAVE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING THAN WE HAD YESTERDAY.
THIS SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS MILDER THAN SUNDAY...BUT GUIDANCE MAY BE A
TOUCH ON THE WARM SIDE. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

TONIGHT...SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR FOR THE BULK OF NIGHT. HOWEVER...
EXPECTED T-STORMS IN THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL PROBABLY PUSH A
LITTLE CIRRUS INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT. WITH THE
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD...1000-850MB WINDS ARE LESS THAN
10KT...AND WE WILL HAVE NO DIFFICULTY DECOUPLING. WE WILL BE
STARTING SOMEWHAT WARMER...BUT WILL HAVE LESS IN THE WAY OF CIRRUS
TO GET IN THE WAY. LIKE LAST NIGHT...GUIDANCE GIVES A WIDE SPREAD OF
POSSIBLE OUTCOMES...WITH THE GFS RUNNING COLDER THAN THE NAM (HTL AS
AN EXAMPLE...37 FROM THE NAM/MET VS 29 FROM THE GFS/MAV). IF THIS
MORNING IS ANY INDICATION...THE TRUTH WILL FALL SOMEWHERE IN
BETWEEN. THIS PAINTS ANOTHER RATHER BROAD AREA OF LOW-MID 30S IN THE
INTERIOR OF NORTHERN LOWER...AND TO A LESSER DEGREE IN FAR WESTERN
CHIP/MACK COUNTIES.

HEADLINE MANAGEMENT IS ANNOYING GIVEN THAT WE HAVE ONGOING
ADVISORIES/WARNINGS...WHICH WON/T BE DISAPPEARING FOR ANOTHER FEW
HOURS. NOT A FAN OF HAVING A DOUBLE HEADLINE FOR EVEN JUST A FEW
HOURS...IT/S POTENTIALLY CONFUSING. BUT A HEADLINE FOR TONIGHT IS
CERTAINLY MORE THAN JUSTIFIED. WILL GO AHEAD AND POP A FROST
ADVISORY FOR LATE TONIGHT FOR A GOOD PORTION NORTHERN LOWER MI.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: FIRE DANGER COULD BE ELEVATED, ONLY IF
TEMPERATURES CAN GET INTO THE MID 70S.

(6/2)TUESDAY...AS THE 500 MB LOW MOVES OUT OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
AND INTO NEW ENGLAND, THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO AROUND +9C.
WHICH GIVES US THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
THE DEWPOINTS END UP IN THE LOWER 30S AS THE DRY 850 MB AIR MIXES TO
THE SFC AND LEAVING THE SFC MIN RH AROUND THE MID 20% RANGE.
HOWEVER, WITH THE SFC HIGH OVER THE REGION, THE WINDS SHOULD BE
BELOW CRITERIA TO PREVENT THE FIRE DANGER FROM BEING ELEVATED.
OVERNIGHT, THE RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE REGION. SO WILL
EXPECT THAT THE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL STABILIZE AS THE WINDS BEGIN
TO PUSH THE WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION.

(6/3)WEDNESDAY...RETURN FLOW CONTINUES INTO THE REGION DURING THE
DAY, BOOSTING THE TEMPERATURES A LITTLE MORE INTO THE LOWER TO MID
70S. MOISTURE WILL BE UP A LITTLE MORE WITH THE DEWPOINTS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE INTO THE LOWER 40S. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE MIN RH ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS(UPPER 20% TO LOWER 30%). THIS WILL STILL BE DRY, BUT
A LITTLE LESS SO THAN WE HAVE SEEN. WINDS REMAIN 5 TO 10 MPH AT THE
20 FT LEVEL AS WELL. OVERNIGHT, THE RAIN BEGINS TO TRY AND MAKE ITS
APPROACH TO THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP THE RAIN OUT
OF E UPPER AND NW LOWER, WHILE THE NAM IS MUCH FASTER GETTING RAIN
IN E UPPER AND NW LOWER BY 09Z. WHILE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION,
THE LIKELIHOOD IS PROBABLY WITH THE OTHER TWO MODELS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

EXTENDED (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...THURSDAY STARTS WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY, AS THE ECMWF IS PUSHING THROUGH A WEAK INVERSE TROUGH
OVER THE REGION, BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT IS SOMEWHAT DISCONNECTED FROM
THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE AS A SUPPORTING FEATURE. THE GFS HOLDS THE RAIN
BACK IN W UPPER, WHILE THE ECMWF PUSHES LIGHT RAIN INTO E UPPER AND
PORTIONS OF N LOWER. THEN OVERNIGHT THE COLD FRONT AND A SECOND 500
MB WAVE PUSH THROUGH, BUT WITHOUT THE MOISTURE, SO THAT NOW, THE
PRECIPITATION AREAS SPLIT AROUND N MICHIGAN, AND THIS OCCURS ON BOTH
MODELS. FRIDAY, THE MODELS ARE TOGETHER ON THEIR IDEA WITH DRY
WEATHER AS THE SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE FORECAST AREA AND STAYS
THROUGH SATURDAY. SUNDAY BECOMES THE NEXT BIG QUESTION MARK AS A
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY MAY PUSH RAIN INTO THE SE
COUNTIES, HOWEVER, WITH DIFFERENT TIMINGS AND EXTENT ON THE
MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 134 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

...NO ISSUES...

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SKIES SKC WITH DRY AIR AND HIGH
PRESSURE SOLIDLY IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS. LIGHT NE WINDS
TURNED ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON...NEAR CALM/CALM TONIGHT AND ONSHORE
AGAIN TOMORROW.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 331 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER NORTHERN MI LATE TODAY
AND TONIGHT...RESULTING IN LIMITED WINDS AND WAVES. LAKE BREEZES
CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOONS...WITH LAND BREEZES
OVERNIGHT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MIZ016>019-
     021>024-027>034.

LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SMD
NEAR TERM...JAZ
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...JAZ



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