Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 270750
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
350 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

WARM S-SW WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA AND A WEAK LAKE SUPERIOR LAKE
BREEZE MAKING IT A FEW MILES INLAND IS THE FOCUS FOR THE AFTERNOON
SHOWERS POPPING UP ACROSS MAINLY E UPPER MI THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE
CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS /WITH A FEW TS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/
UNTIL THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WHEN LIGHTER WINDS WILL DIMINISH
THE STRENGTH OF THE CONVERGENCE. WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR THUNDER
BAY RADAR FOR POP UP SHOWERS IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT...BETTER
MOISTURE...AND HIGHER SHEAR. UNSURE OF HOW MUCH WILL BE ABLE TO PUSH
INTO W AND NW LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH FCST MODELS SHOWING VERY LITTLE
WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT POPS THERE.

IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY MONDAY...WITH TEMPS TOPPING OUT 10-15F
WARMER THAN CLIMO NORMAL VALUES AS THE 500MB RIDGE CONTINUES TO
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION AND THE SFC RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE. WITH DEW
POINTS STILL IN THE 60S...CAN NOT RULE OUT FOG OVER LAKE SUPERIOR.
THE LAKE SUPERIOR LAKE BREEZE LOOKS TO HAVE AN EVEN MORE DIFFICULT
TIME SLIDING INLAND MONDAY...WITH S WINDS OF 5-10KTS FOR MOST. HIGHS
SHOULD TOP OUT WITHIN 4F OF WHAT WAS REALIZED TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

A FAIRLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR LATE JULY WILL BE LIFTING
NORTHEAST OUT OF NORTHEAST MONTANA AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD AND MOVING OVER LAKE WINNIPEG BY TUESDAY EVENING. A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL BE STRETCHING EAST ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER AND THEN SOUTH THROUGH THE FAR EASTERN DAKOTAS.
EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE ONGOING AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...ASSOCIATED
WITH STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS EVENING IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND
LIFT NORTHEAST. THINK A LOT OF THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL DEPEND ON THIS CONVECTION AND ITS AFFECT ON THE
UPSTREAM ENVIRONMENT. EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO DIMINISH AS IT MOVES
TOWARDS THE AREA...BUT THINK IT WILL SPREAD SOME CLOUD COVER OVER
THE CWA WITH WILL WORK COMBINE WITH THE CAPPING CAPPING AROUND 850MB
(TEMPS RISING TO 17-19C)...WHICH WILL KEEP DEVELOPMENT FROM
OCCURRING UNTIL THERE IS ENOUGH FORCING FROM THE FRONT. IN
ADDITION...THE CONVECTIVELY INDUCED SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE CWA TUESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
LIMIT ANY LARGER SCALE FORCING NEAR THE CWA FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE BEST HEIGHT FALLS FROM THE UPPER TROUGH ARE
STILL WELL OFF TO THE WEST IN NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA.

BETWEEN THIS CAPPING AND THE FRONT (LOCATED IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON)...THERE WILL BE A VERY NARROW CORRIDOR OF
INSTABILITY STRETCHING NORTH FROM IOWA THROUGH EASTERN MINNESOTA AND
WESTERN WISCONSIN AND INTO NORTHWEST ONTARIO. MODELS SHOWING THE
GREATEST INSTABILITY (MLCAPE VALUES TO 2500 J/KG) OVER SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...BUT INDICATE THAT NARROW CORRIDOR
OF INSTABILITY PUSHING FARTHER NORTH TO BE AROUND 1500 J/KG INTO THE
MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THINK THAT AREA AND
STRETCHING SOUTH INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN WILL BE THE AREA TO
WATCH FOR DEVELOPMENT ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS STORM MOTION VECTORS
AND MOVEMENT FROM THE FRONT WOULD LIFT ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS
ALONG THE FRONT TO THE NORTHEAST. THEREFORE...WE WOULD NEED
DEVELOPMENT IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN TO LEAD TO THE STORMS AFFECTING
THE WESTERN CWA TUESDAY EVENING. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH
AFFECT THE MORNING CONVECTION AND CLOUDS WILL HAVE ON THE
ATMOSPHERE IN THAT AREA FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DO LIKE THE WAY THAT
THE 00Z MODELS HAVE TRENDED WITH THEIR QPF AND INDICATING MORE
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CWA
TUESDAY EVENING...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OCCURRING FARTHER
TO THE SOUTH AWAY FROM THE MORNING CONVECTION AND INTO THE BETTER
INSTABILITY. THAT CONVECTION FARTHER SOUTH WILL DECAY AND LIFT
NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THROUGH THE EASTERN CWA OVERNIGHT
TUESDAY AND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH THE INSTABILITY
REALLY WEAKENING...EXPECT THE THUNDERSTORM AND SEVERE THREAT TO BE
VERY LIMITED FOR THE EASTERN CWA. OVER THE WEST...THINK HEAVY RAIN
IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THE HIGH FREEZING LEVELS (AROUND 14KFT)
AND WARM CLOUD DEPTH. THOSE HIGH FREEZING LEVELS AND 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES ONLY 20-30KTS WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL. BUT
IF STORMS CAN BECOME ORGANIZED...THE THREAT FOR HAIL WOULD
INCREASE. IN ADDITION...THINK WIND IS A CONCERN AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THERE WILL LIKELY BE
RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR TO INCREASE DCAPE VALUES.
ALSO...SUBSTANTIAL DRYING WILL OCCUR IN THE MID LEVELS IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE DRY SLOT MOVES EAST INTO THE AREA.

BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY WINDS TO
DEVELOP OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE THE TIGHTEST PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS LOCATED. WITH THE WARMING OF THE WATER
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WESTERN LAKE OVER THE LAST FEW WEEKS...DON/T
THINK THE MARINE LAYER WILL HAVE MUCH INFLUENCE ON THE SURFACE
WINDS AND EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35KTS.
WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME 40KT (AND POSSIBLY 45KTS) GUSTS AT
THE HIGHER PLATFORMS LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN THE BEST CORE OF
WINDS MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKE. THOSE WINDS WILL AFFECT THE
WESTERN SHORELINE OF LAKE SUPERIOR FROM THE PORKIES UP THROUGH THE
KEWEENAW. HAVE TRENDED THE GUSTS UP A LITTLE MORE FOR THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA (TOWARDS 35KTS)...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE SOME HIGHER GUSTS
TOWARDS COPPER HARBOR WITH THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS. THE REST OF THE
AREA WILL SEE GUSTS AROUND 20KTS DURING THE DAY. THERE WILL BE A
POCKET OF CLOUDS ROTATING THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON...ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MID LEVEL (850-700MB) TROUGH AXIS...WHICH MAY BE THICK
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OVER WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN.
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE 7-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY...WITH
UPPER 70S EXPECTED OVER THE WEST AND LOWER 80S OVER THE EAST.

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. WITH STRONG WINDS
ALOFT...THE MORE EXPOSED LOCATIONS (THE KEWEENAW) WILL LIKELY SEE
GUSTS THROUGH THE NIGHT IN THE 20-30KT RANGE...OTHERWISE EXPECT THE
WINDS TO BE IN THE 10-15KT RANGE OVER THE REST OF THE AREA. ONLY
EXPECT PASSING CLOUDS WITH THIS TROUGH...AS MOISTURE IS REALLY
LACKING. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE
AREA (HIGH CENTERED IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS) AND DIMINISH THE WINDS ON
THURSDAY. THE RIDGE WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS ANOTHER WEAK MID LEVEL
WAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. LIKE THE WAVE ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...MOISTURE IS LACKING AND DON/T EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN
PARTLY CLOUD SKIES AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED SHOWER.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AND WILL HELP
KEEP TEMPERATURES SEASONABLE.THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN THIS
WEEKEND WILL COME ON SATURDAY NIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT DROPS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA (SUPPORTED BY A SHORTWAVE ARRIVING FROM
THE CANADIAN ROCKIEST). THAT FRONT SHOULD QUICKLY DEPART SUNDAY
MORNING AND ALLOW A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ARRIVE BY AFTERNOON.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN IN CONTROL AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS
ACROSS UPPER MI. WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10KTS OR LESS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER LOWER MI WILL KEEP A RIDGE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG.
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER S SASKATCHEWAN TUESDAY MORNING WILL RACE
ACROSS MANITOBA TUESDAY NIGHT...AND ACROSS ONTARIO TO HUDSON BAY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOOK FOR THIS LOW TO REMAIN ACROSS HUDSON BAY
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN
THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH THE
RETURN OF STRONGER WINDS. S-SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH COULD GUST
NEAR 25KTS OVER MAINLY E LAKE SUPERIOR TUE NIGHT...WITH SW-W WINDS
NEARING 30KTS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROUGH.

THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT TO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES
THURSDAY...ALLOWING A WEAK RIDGE TO BUILD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY. IT WILL QUICKLY BE REPLACED BY A WEAK TROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...ROTATING AROUND THE HUDSON BAY LOW.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...KF



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