Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 220945

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
445 AM EST Wed Nov 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 445 AM EST WED NOV 22 2017

LES has diminished rather quickly early this morning as a result of
dry and warmer air moving over Lake Superior. Will continue to see
LES diminish and drift offshore today as a SFC ridge moves through.
No additional significant accumulations are expected.

Could see some light snow along the WI border this evening into
tonight as a shortwave moves nearby, but nothing that would produce
significant impacts. With SW to W flow, there could be some light
lake effect/upslope snow over the Keweenaw tonight. Could see up to
an inch of snow over the Keweenaw.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 234 AM EST WED NOV 22 2017

Nam shows a 500 mb ridge across the western U.S. and troughing
across the east half of the U.S. 12z Thu. A trough moves from
western Canada to the upper Great Lakes Fri night. Nam shows some
moisture and 850-500 mb q-vector convergence 12z Fri into Fri night
moving through the area. Overall, did not make too many changes to
the going forecast. Did remove any freezing pcpn for Thanksgiving as
it looked to cold for freezing rain. Looked like a snow/rain
possibility for that day in the ern cwa.

In the extended, GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb ridge in the western
U.S. and a deep and broad 500 mb trough across the ern half of the
U.S. 12z Sat. 850 mb temperatures 12z Sat across Lake Superior are
from -9C to -13C and with lake temperatures around 4C, that is
enough for lake effect snow. The ridge amplifies on Sun across the
western U.S. with troughing in New England. The ridge moves into the
plains 12z Mon as troughing moves onto the west coast. The trough
moves into the Rockies 12z Tue and into the plains by 00z Wed and
into the upper Great Lakes on Wed. Temperatures look to be above
normal for this forecast period.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1150 PM EST TUE NOV 21 2017

MVFR conditions and lake effect -shsn/flurries will continue at
KIWD/KCMX until winds back to the sw when high pres ridge passes
this morning/early aftn. VFR conditions will then continue into the
evening hrs. At KSAW, downslope nature of the nw flow should allow
cigs to vary from high MVFR to VFR overnight with -shsn/flurries
ending. VFR conditions will then prevail at KSAW today into this

.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 445 AM EST WED NOV 22 2017

Winds will back to the SW up to 20 to 30 knots today through
tonight. Westerly winds of 20 to 30 knots Thursday will back to the
south on Friday. Another strong low pressure system will then bring
the potential for northwest gales of 35 to 40 knots Friday night
into Saturday.

Upper Michigan...
Lake Superior...
Lake Michigan...


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