Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 221907

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
307 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 258 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016

Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough in the wrn U.S. and
troughing in the east with a ridge across the central U.S. poking
into the upper Great Lakes this morning. The ridge builds into the
upper Great Lakes tonight and remains through Monday.

Looks quiet and very warm for this forecast period and did not make
too many changes to the going forecast overall. Kept in some chance
pops far west in the late afternoon Monday. Fire weather will
continue to be a concern for Monday with low relative humidities and
plenty of sunshine available with wind gusts up to 30 mph. This
would be enough to cause red flag conditions and will issue a red
flag warning for all of the U.P. and cancel the watch as conditions
are very high for wildfires.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 307 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016

Unlike the current very dry pattern in place there will be some
opportunities for rain this week. Would prefer a widespread wetting
rainfall to really knock down the fire danger, but not sure that
will occur. If we see no rain through the end of Monday May 23rd,
the May 2016 precip thus far of 0.45 inches at the NWS office near
Negaunee will rank as the 3rd driest since records began in 1961. In
the shorter term, last time the daily precip was over 0.10 inch was
on May 12th.

Upper ridge that brings the critical fire weather conditions on
Monday will be weakening over the Lower Great Lakes Monday night
into Tuesday. Meanwhile, deep upper trough over Alberta/Saskatchewan
and Montana will slowly unravel resulting in wsw flow aloft across
plains and Upper Great Lakes. Shortwave energy crossing Upper Lakes
on Monday night will bring weakening sfc cold front over the region.
Strongest sfc based and elevated instability Monday Night stays sw
of Upper Michigan. Could see stronger storm work over far west cwa
mainly Lk Superior. Isolated hail to quarter size would be main
hazard. If storms arrive earlier in the evening, steep low-level
lapse rates could result in gusty winds too. Overall pops are low
chance as the front moves in. Locally higher pops possible if
stronger convectively induced shortwaves moves through.

Front settles across Upper Michigan on Tuesday. The front
interacting with lake breezes and higher sfc dwpnts in the 50s/sfc
based CAPE 500-1000j/kg could trigger isolated or scattered
shra/tsra. Coverage and strength of shra/tsra will depend on
strength of shortwaves in the wsw flow aloft and whether any
insolation occurs. Pattern with enhanced north flow off Lk Superior
suggests best chance for pops would be interior west and central in
the heating of the afternoon. Winds through H5 close to 6km are 30
kts or less so unless more instabilty can be realized think severe
storms are a low risk. Probably turns fairly quiet Tuesday Night
into Wednesday as shortwave ridge moves across and sfc high pressure
north of Lk Superior ridges across much of Upper Michigan. If there
is a sfc-H85 warm front around it should set up more toward southern
MN or southern WI, which is probably where pops will remain focused.

Upper level flow backs sw Thu-Fri and that should bring various
shortwaves over the area along with more of a focus for shra/tsra as
low-level warm front and pool of instability moves closer.
Widespread severe weather does not look like likely, but isolated
severe storms cannot be ruled out with weak sfc winds promoting lake
breeze convergence and some periods of stronger winds H85-H5 or up
to 6km. Also, instability will be around at least conditionally with
H7-H5 lapse rates over 7C/km at times and sfc based CAPE maybe up to
1000j/kg thanks to temps in the 70s or 80s and dwpnts possibly over
60 degrees. The warm and unsettled pattern will remain in place
through next weekend. So, looking at warm conditions with certainly
more humidity than has been around most of this month along with
continuation of low chances for shra/tsra. And finally, will have to
watch that if significant rainfall does not materialize early this
week then any tsra that occur later this week or next weekend could
pose an increased risk for fire starts given the very dry fuel
indices in place over Upper Michigan.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 124 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016

With dry high pressure dominating this fcst period, expect VFR
conditions at all the TAF sites. Light winds will become steady out
of the SSW this evening as the pressure gradient begins to tighten
on the western flank of the departing surface high pressure ridge.
Expect LLWS at IWD in the early morning hours on Monday.

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 258 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016

Southerly winds of up to 25 knots are expected tonight through
Monday night as a low pressure trough approaches from the west. The
trough will stall over the Upper Great Lakes Tuesday through
Thursday, bringing winds generally under 20 knots.

Upper Michigan...
  Red Flag Warning from 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ to 8 PM EDT /7 PM
     CDT/ Monday for MIZ001>015-084-085.

Lake Superior...
Lake Michigan...


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