Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 151149

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
649 AM EST Fri Dec 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 435 AM EST FRI DEC 15 2017

A shortwave over the area is driving some light snow across the
area, with lake effect in the NW snowbelts of the western U.P. and a
band of heavy lake effect N of the Superior shorelines of eastern
Upper MI. Behind the shortwave, wind fields will allow LES to move
onshore in the NW wind snowbelts of the E this morning. Little
change in thinking from the previous shift, so no headline changes
were needed. Lake effect diminishes to a degree tonight, lingering
strongest longest into eastern Marquette and far western Alger
County through tonight. From 12Z today to 12Z Sat, additional
accumulations are expected to be 3-5" in the snowbelts of the
western half, 5-8", possibly up to 11", in Alger and northern
Schoolcraft, and 2-5" in Luce County.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 350 AM EST FRI DEC 15 2017

Beginning Saturday: With sfc high pressure sliding north and east of
Lake Superior and 850 mb temps in the -16C to -20C range, expect
some lingering light lake effect snow mainly in e to ne flow areas.
Very light snow of a up to a few tenths of an inch forced by WAA may
also occur along the Wi border counties, but overall impacts should
be minimal.

Sunday and Monday: Mainly zonal flow aloft along with weak surface
ridging and increasing 850 mb temps will allow for mostly dry
conditions and moderating temps during this time.

Tuesday through Wednesday: A shortwave trough moving in Mon night
will usher in another shot of colder air into the region generating
more LES for the W to NW wind snow belts Tuesday into Wednesday.
Gusty west to northwest winds, especially across the Keweenaw and
north central shoreline areas, will be possible Tuesday into Tuesday
night aided by an isallobaric wind component crossing the CWA behind
the trough. Mixed layer off the GFS forecast soundings would suggest
several locations reaching advisory criteria wind gusts of 45 mph
or greater.

Wed night into Friday: Model uncertainty increases for later in the
week regarding evolution of a low pres system developing over the
Plains and moving into the Great Lakes region. The 00z ECMWF
solution is not as deep and farther south than its previous run and
shows the low taking a similar track as the 00Z GFS and GEFS through
central Lower Mi and across Lake Huron Thu night into Fri morning.
Following a blend of the 00z GFS and ECMWF solutions...WAA snow
ahead of this system would spread into Upper Mi late Wed into Wed
night and continue into Thu with the potential for significant lake
enhanced snow over the northeast snow belts Thu afternoon into
Friday morning.  Model trends on this developing storm system and
its potential impact on holiday travel will need to be monitored
heading into next week.

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 649 AM EST FRI DEC 15 2017

Lake effect snow showers will continue at KCMX and KIWD. KSAW will
have light snow into this morning.

.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 435 AM EST FRI DEC 15 2017

Winds will stay generally below 20 knots through the weekend except
for a few northwesterly gusts to 30 knots today. Southwesterly winds
will increase late Monday to 20 to 30 knots before veering to
northwesterly gales to 35-45 knots late Mon night into Wed morning.
With increasing wave heights, freezing spray is possible late
Tuesday night and into Wednesday.

Upper Michigan...
  Winter Weather Advisory until midnight EST tonight for MIZ006-

  Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ this afternoon
     for MIZ001>004-009-084.

Lake Superior...
Lake Michigan...


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