Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 281016
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
516 AM EST Mon Nov 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 516 AM EST MON NOV 28 2016

WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a mid/upper level trough over
much of the wrn CONUS, from the Rockies into the wrn plains. A
closed low was noted over the Dakotas. At the surface, se winds were
increasing between a 977 mb low over ern SD and a ridge from Quebec
into the mid-Atlantic states. Gales were already occurring over
eastern and north central Lake Superior early this morning.

The short range models still in good agreement with the progression
of area of rain across central and eastern Upper Mi this morning
ahead of initial shortwave moving through northern Wi and assoc
surge of 295k-305k isentropic lift. Expect this band of rain now
over central Upper Mi to taper off later this morning with weakening
isentropic lift as it moves through eastern Upper Mi. Patchy fog
this morning should dissipate with arrival of pcpn. Although the mid
level moisture will depart during the day, continued low level
isentropic lift will maintain some light rain or drizzle through
most of the day, with lower amounts and coverage near Lake Superior
where the strongest downslope wind prevails. SE winds will be gusty
today especially for downsloping areas along Lake Superior where
gusts could reach near 30 mph. Expect temps today in the lower to
mid 40s.

Deep layer q-vector convergence and moisture fields suggest a better
chance for widespread rain tonight as a more vigorous shortwave and
associated sfc trough lifts northeast through the mid-Mississippi
Valley. Will maintain categorical pops especially over the central
and eastern portions of the cwa closer to best dynamics with
shortwave. Expect there could be some mid-lvl drying and tapering
off of pcpn over the sw half of Upper Mi late tonight on backside of
sfc-850 mb trough passage. Temps will not fall much from Mondays
highs due to abundant cloud cover...expect min temps in the upper
30s/lower 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 424 AM EST MON NOV 28 2016

Tuesday: The most significant issue Tuesday morning will be a
reinforcing shot of energy that will slide north and eastward from
northern Lower Michigan into southern Ontario. This wave of energy
will drag an associated surface lobe of low pressure across the same
area. The occluded front, stretching between the aforementioned
feature and the vertically stacked low over MN, will slide from
southwest to northeast, clearing the area between 15Z/29 18Z/29. The
better forcing will be will be over the east half and Lake Superior
before 15Z and then quickly slide out of the area with the
aforemention features. At this point, not expect more than an
additional 0.1 to 0.2 inches of additional rainfall over the east
half and the Keweenaw through the morning hours. The deep layer
moisture exits the area with the occluded front through the
afternoon, which should make for a dry afternoon with some breaks in
the clouds expected, especially across the south central and east.
Highs will be well above normal over the east half with most
locations expected to be in the upper 40s to around 50, while the
west half stays mainly in the low to mid 40s.

Tuesday night into Wednesday night: As the occluded front continues
to slowly slide north and east, the area should continue to remain
dry Tuesday night with increasing cloud cover once again ahead of
the next system. The next shot of energy is progged to slide near
the eastern U.P. late Tuesday night through Wednesday
evening.Theadded deeper moisture along with increased forcing, will
allow for another chance of showers moving through the area.
Additionally, the aforementioned occluded low will begin to slide
across the western U.P. by Wednesday afternoon, which will begin to
introduce precip chances over the far west once again. By that time,
cooler air will begin to move in aloft which may allow some snow to
mix in with the rain at times over the far west late Wednesday
afternoon into Wednesday night.

Thursday through the extended: The closed low will slowly meander
through the Upper Great Lakes region through Friday morning before
sliding out of the area Friday night into the weekend. As this
happens, colder air will begin to filter into the region, at the
surface and aloft, allowing the rain to transition to snow.
Currently it looks like the north to northwest wind favored
snowbelts would be most likely to see the best chances for
precipitation. It does look like temperatures overall will trend
colder during this time period and 850mb temperatures are progged to
cool to the -6C to -8C range. Models begin to differ beyond Friday
afternoon, with the EC placing a ridge over the area while the GFS
has a trough over the area Saturday into Sunday, before both
aligning with a slight troughing pattern form Monday. At this point
will stick with a consensus of the models for the late part of the
extended.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1235 AM EST MON NOV 28 2016

IFR/low-end MVFR conditions to prevail at KSAW and KCMX through the
forecast with KSAW and KIWD experiencing some LIFR ceilings at times
during the daylight hours, but especially once the sun sets Monday
evening. Areas of rain continues to spread toward the region and
will persist through Monday evening as a very moist SE flow
continues. Winds to be gusty through the daylight hours with the
highest gusts reaching near 28 knots at KCMX due to channelized flow
there. Gusts to reach into the 20-25 knot range at KSAW and KIWD
during the day before diminishing in the late afternoon.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 516 AM EST MON NOV 28 2016

Low pressure continues to deepen across the Northern Plains into the
Upper Midwest. This has resulted in a tight pressure gradient across
the northern Great Lakes leading to gales across much of Lake
Superior. Gales to 40kt are expected across all of Lake Superior,
but the gradient will slacken earliest today across the far west.
Further east the gradient will remain tight, with gales lingering
through tonight. The low pressure system will linger over the Upper
Midwest Tuesday into Wednesday. However the pressure gradient is not
expected to be as tight and should allow winds to diminish below
25kt by Tuesday afternoon. Northerly winds to around 25 knots may
develop Thursday as the slow moving low moves to the east of Lake
Superior into Quebec.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
  Gale Warning until 10 AM EST Tuesday for LSZ249>251-266-267.

  Gale Warning until 8 AM EST /7 AM CST/ this morning for LSZ162.

  Gale Warning until 4 AM EST Tuesday for LSZ243-244-264.

  Gale Warning until midnight EST /11 PM CST/ tonight for
     LSZ240>242-245>248-263-265.

Lake Michigan...
  Gale Warning until 4 AM EST Tuesday for LMZ221-248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Voss
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...RJT
MARINE...Voss



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