Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 250804
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
404 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT SUN AUG 24 2014

THE SFC LOW OVER ND THIS AFTERNOON WITH TRACK E OF LAKE WINNIPEG BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT OVER THE FAR W CWA.

HEALTHY WAA AND PLENTY OF CLEARING HAS ALLOWED SFC TEMPS TO JUMP
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. THE LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LINGERING CU IN THE MVFR CATEGORY OVER MUCH
OF CENTRAL UPPER MI THIS AFTERNOON...CONTINUING TO BE FUNNELED UP
IN THE S-SE FLOW. MUCH OF OUR ATTENTION WILL BE TO OUR W...LOOKING
AT SHOWERS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONGER STORM TO NEAR FAR W
CWA LATE THIS EVENING. RIPE CONDITIONS FOR TS DEVELOPMENT ARE
CURRENTLY OVER SW AND S CENTRAL MN...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 70S
/PLENTY OF MOISTURE WITH PW VALUES NEARING 2IN/. THIS AREA HAS 0-6KM
SHEAR VALUES NEAR 40KTS AND MUCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000J/KG.
DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SLOWLY EDGING E
TOWARD W LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE IWD AREA. FCST MODELS INDICATE A
STRONG POTENTIAL FOR A THIN LINE OF STORMS OVER N WI AROUND 3-6Z.
DIMINISHED INSTABILITY OVER UPPER MI SHOULD ALLOW SHOWERS AND TS TO
DECREASE IN INTENSITY AS THEY PUSH E OF IWD. STRONG WINDS LOOK TO BE
THE MAIN THREAT...WITH A LLJ OF 35 TO NEAR 40KTS OVER THE FAR W
BRIEFLY. STRONG STORMS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR W IF STORMS ARRIVE EARLY ENOUGH BEFORE
INSTABILITY BEGINS DIMINISHING.

AS FOR MONDAY...LOOK FOR RAPIDLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS W TO E...WITH
LOW CLOUDS LINGERING CENTRAL AND E...CLOSER TO THE EXITING COLD
FRONT/TROUGH AND FARTHER FROM THE NEARING HIGH IN THE DAKOTAS.
QUICKENED THE EXIT OF THE TS ACTIVITY A BIT FASTER. HIGH TEMPS WILL
STILL RISE INTO THE MID 80S OVER THE W HALF.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

A FAIRLY QUIET AND GENERALLY DRY LONG TERM PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS
TRANSITION WILL OCCUR AS A RESULT OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO TODAY AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THAT
PASSES THROUGH. BEHIND THIS LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE...HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION BY WEDNESDAY WHILE A WEAK UPPER TROUGH SWEEPS
THROUGH. IN GENERAL...EXPECT THIS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO SUPPRESS
ANY PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE
ARE A COUPLE MINOR ITEMS TO NOTE. FIRST...THE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
COULD TRY TO SPARK AN ISOLATED SHOWER BUT FEEL THE DRY AIR IN THE
LOWER LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL INHIBIT
ANY RAIN FROM REACHING THE SURFACE. THUS...WILL JUST SHOW PASSING
MID CLOUDS AS THAT WAVE MOVES THROUGH. THE OTHER ITEM IS THE MUCH
COOLER AIR BELOW 850MB THAT WILL BE SURGING INTO THE CWA LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL SETUP A RETURN TO ANOTHER COOLER
PERIOD OF HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE CWA. WITH THE COLD AIR JUST
STARTING TO MOVE IN ON TUESDAY...HIGHS OVER THE CENTRAL/EAST WILL
STILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S WHILE AREAS OVER THE
WEST NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WILL STAY IN THE MID 60S WITH THE
GUSTY WESTERLY WIND OFF THE LAKE. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY
(AIDED BY THE MORNING MID CLOUDS LIMITING HEATING AND MODEL AVERAGE
850MB TEMPS AROUND 6-7C)...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S OVER MOST OF THE
CWA. 850MB TEMPS WILL REBOUND SLIGHTLY ON THURSDAY AND ALLOW HIGHS
TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES. ALONG WITH THAT COOLER
AIR ON TUESDAY MORNING...SOME OF THE MODELS ARE INDICATING ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR SOME CLOUDS OVER THE NORTH HALF OF THE CWA. THINK THE
COVERAGE WILL BE THE GREATEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN THE
DIURNAL HEATING IS MAXIMIZED AND WILL SHOW PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
DURING THAT TIME. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE REST OF THE
MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK.

THE FOCUS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND WILL BE THE UPPER
DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. THE INITIAL PORTION OF THIS WAVE WILL SHIFT
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...WITH MODELS STILL VARYING ON THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP. CURRENT CONSENSUS IS FOR IT TO BRUSH
THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE CWA AND WILL SHOW SLIGHT CHANCES IN THAT
AREA. THE SECOND WAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AND BRING ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION. MODELS
ALSO VARYING ON THE LOCATION THIS WAVE...SO WILL FOLLOW A BLEND OF
GEM/GFS/ECMWF FOR POPS (SLIGHT OR LOW END CHANCES) WITH THE BEST
CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT WILL BRING SCT/NMRS SHRA/TSRA
INTO UPPER MI. THE BEST CHANCE FOR TSRA WILL BE ACROSS THE WEST AT
IWD/CMX WHILE FARTHER EAST AT SAW...LESS FAVORABLE INSTABILITY WILL
LIMIT TS CHANCES. PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN WITH UPSLOPE
CONDITIONS BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS TO SAW LATE
IN THE NIGHT THAT SHOULD DROP TO IFR TOWARD SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...
LOOK FOR SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS W TO E TODAY AS DRIER AIR WORKS
IN FROM THE W BEHIND THE EXITING COLD FRONT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 524 AM EDT SUN AUG 24 2014

FOG MAY BE AN ISSUE OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR THRU MON GIVEN
THE HUMID AIR MASS THAT CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER THE AREA. PASSAGE
OF A COLD FRONT MON WILL THEN WORK TO CLEAR OUT ANY FOG FROM W TO E
AS DRIER AIR FLOWS INTO THE UPPER LAKES. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...E
TO SE WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME TODAY/TONIGHT. WINDS OF 15-25KT SHOULD
BE OBSERVED AT SOME OF THE HIGHER OBS PLATFORMS. IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...WSW WINDS OF 15-25KT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE W HALF OF THE
LAKE ON MON. HIGH PRES WILL THEN SETTLE INTO THE UPPER LAKES LATE
TUE THRU THU...BRINGING A PERIOD OF LIGHTER WINDS MOSTLY UNDER 15KT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...ROLFSON






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